With less than 24 hours left until Hurricane season in this part of the world kicks off,  A current,  True Color Satellite,  and S.O.T.O.  SST Anomaly check,  ..and some early thoughts on what may lie ahead. 


May 14th C.O.D. Sat. check across the basin..  Some weaker tropical looking waves moving thru the E. Pac atm  but,  all is quiet  ..for now.. 




Earlier thoughts on a pre - season disturbance getting going out there obviously didn't pan out as suggested, due in part to a persistent subtropical jet streak situated over N. Mex atm,  which has sort limited how quickly / persistently the subtropical high that sets up over Mexico in May can get itself anchored in over the continent.. 

Per the latest forecasts,  ..but always subject to change,   that influence should start fading as we head into the back half of the month, allowing for a more conductive environment for disturbances crossing this area to do a bit more than they have lately.. 




Water off S.W. Mex atm if plenty warm..  Darkest shadings on this map = 30 -31.5C SST temps..  Cooler,  closer to CA obviously but still running above norm for the date.. Gulf of CA, southern portion in particular, running warmer than norm, though actual temps are still in the 27 -29C ( Lower 80s F ) range.



..as you can see in both the basin - wide and zoomed in a bit Anom. maps






While not quite as intense atm as it looked in late March, on-going marine Heatwave off CA, Baja and W. Mex continues,  as well as the first obvious " finger print "  hints of a warm ENSO cycle < El Nino >  beginning to take shape of Ecuador and Peru. 

...It only gets warmer from here forward..  Obviously,  that could have big implications for the next several months, both closer to home, and near by. 



Pretty tough to find a forecast that doesn't use terms like " active or  " possibly hyper -active " to describe what could occur this year ..due to both factors mentioned above, especially once the warm ...or hot??...   El Nino footprint starts digging in across the basin / SSTs reach peak heating across areas where it is already quite warm north of the carefully monitored " Nino regions " across the basin.

USA Today article out today:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2026/05/14/powerful-el-nino-is-taking-shape-forecast-says/90043794007/


By the numbers?  Most forecasters are suggesting a numbers - range between 17 and 22 or 3 systems, which sits above the 14 named storm average and would put it on par with the 6 most active seasons on record, should we see more than 20 systems develop this year.. 

Top six most active years include: 1992 = 27,   2015 = 26,  1982, = 23,  1984 and 1990 = 21   ..and 1983 = 20.  These years also coincide with wetter summers here,  major storm impacts across western and southwestern Mexico and Baja,   above avg. storm remnant events reaching California,  and storm threats / direct strikes in Hawaii..

Two " near / borderline Tropical storm level " systems that brought widespread flooding / some wind to CA in recent years,  IE: Hilary, 2023,  and  Kay, in 2022,  occurred during warmer years,  though both years were considered only slightly above average ( 19 storms in 2022,   17 storms in 2023 )

This year could be another one of those years ..and then some..

Current / May update  ECMWF thoughts:     Considering all the chatter from   ...pretty much everyone..  would be quite surprised if these numbers don't jump  ..perhaps by quite a bit...  when the June update is out.  


Considering how strong of an El Nino seems to be taking shape this year, +  the not - yet - connected - to / enhanced by,  for now, significant marine heatwave just off our part of the world,  Could we make a run at 25 /25+ systems this year??

..I wouldn't shelve the possibility..

While CA and our part of the neighborhood seeing more tropically enhanced rain this summer would not necessarily be a bad thing,  this continues to look like a year Hawaii will need to keep an extra - close eye on how things take shape,  both in the East Pacific,  and in the Central Pacific,   ..whose season starts on June 1st,   and is also looking pretty active this summer.. 


As far as when we could see the first real storm?  ..only continued, on and off again hints that something might try to get going off far southern Mex by around Memorial Day on the current WX model thoughts. That said,   you never know..    Much depends on how soon the inhibiting factor created by that subtrop. jet streak hanging around right now fizzles out.

Regardless, that will happen sooner,  rather than later.  Once that does,   i'm sure things will get cooking out there pretty quickly. 

Looking at the two most active years,  first tropical system on the board occurred in the late May  < 5 /26, in 1992,  and May 28th, in 2015.. >  so,  not seeing anything out there,  just yet, isn't that unusual, despite the suggested forecasts.    ...We'll see what happens, this year. 

No matter where you're located,  what significant   ..or relatively minor impacts...  you might see this year,   now is the time to prepare..  Not later.    We may not see as many threats as the Gulf / Atlantic can during active years over there,  but, when it gets active, out here,   ..it can get pretty crazy at times.. 


More as needed,  later..



 

After a few weak spin ups, and a long break, We have storm 4 on the board today...



..Won't last long, and like the other 3 that have formed so far this season, Douglas will spend it's life out over open water.

That said, there have been increasing suggestions that E. Pac. activity may pick up as we head into July as the MJO sides into a favorable phase for this side of the world..



On that note, ...a very interesting study was released today looking at what the future may hold regarding impacts from Tropical systems in a part of the world where events like Hilary are rare ..for now..

Article link to the study: https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/hurricane-rainfall-and-landslide-risk-rise-southern-california

Thoughts from Daniel Swain:












..While squarely focused on CA, an increasing, future risk of TC and/or Hurricane - related rainfall events there means such risks are likely to rise here in AZ / other portions of the region where effects from these events are fairly uncommon, but not as rare as they are in CA atm as well.

Elida = a remnant low no longer on the board, whose moisture plume could bring another round of lightning - filled storms to the PAC N.W. shortly..



Fausto on the board, and could become a significant Hurricane shortly.. No immediate threat, but will need to be watched since it could approach the Hawaiian Islands later ..per some current thinking on it's projected track..



Next storm expected to form soon = Genevieve, and could be followed by 2 or 3 more by the first week in August as the E. PAC. conga line continues.