Bouncing between a hot 108 ..and a " not as gross " 111F our there at 3:27PM. That said, add in the currently fluffy Dew Point reading of 57 and the " real feel " has been wavering between 113 and 118.. While the Excessive heat warning will end around 8PM, expect another hot night in the mid / upper 80s and 90 / 90+ < 90 /90+ readings = closer to downtown PHX > Touch cooler tomorrow as things start to change.. " Changing Times " = clearly evident in today's afternoon COD T.C. Satellite loop... While steering flow in the upper levels will drive storm activity currently bubbling up over the White Mtns / Gila Wilderness in New Mexico toward the south / southwest again, keeping a majority of today's storms confined to Cochise Co. and the borderlands, note that the flow is starting to take on a more " east to west " trajectory today than it has over the last couple days ...A good sign that the center of the subtropical high, currently stretched out between L.A. and the PHX area, is starting to shift north toward Utah and western Colorado ...Where it should be by this time tomorrow. That shift = increased east to west upper level steering flow, and increasing moisture levels through the entire atmosphere, which should boost storm coverage, getting it closer to PHX. While not in the official forecast currently, if storm activity is as widespread to our south tomorrow as some of the forecasts are suggesting, it is entirely possible some deg. of left over shower activity / few bolts rides a dusty outflow boundary into -at least- this side of the valley late tomorrow night. This is something that has been hinted at by various HRRR runs over the last couple days, so ..We'll see. Regardless, most of the current forecast thinking is pointing at Sunday night / Monday being our first good shot at storms across the valley.. ** As usual, whose house / side of town sees rain, vs. another that doesn't = that is how the monsoon works, 99% of the time. Nothing predictable about that. ....So no whining about it if you stay dry.. ** Beyond anything we might see by Monday morning, next week looks to stay reasonably active as the subtropical high stays in a favorable position for continued east / southeasterly flow. Some hints at an Easterly Wave / Inverted Trough approaching the area by mid / late week, ...which would really enhance rain chances / coverage / up the heavy rain threat.. As usual, further south you go, rain chances look better.. Highs in the 80s to about 90, lows in the mid/upper 60s = Sonotia / Patagonia area looking great. On that note, as humid as it may feel out there now, ..it could get quite soupy, esp. by desert standards, next week.. D.P's in the lower / mid 60s look pretty likely all of next week and are pretty typical during Monsoon season. Rarer? the consistent suggestion by both the GFS and ECMWF ( Especially ) of seeing Dew Point readings topping 70deg ..if not flirting with / breaching 80, which ..i honestly can't remember the last time i'd seen 75 -82deg Dew Point readings suggested in a forecast for this area. More clouds / storms around + higher D.P's / Humidity = temps will come down next week to -at least- the lower 100s. Cloudier / stormier days? = highs might stay below 100. At the same time, As is normal during the season, the " A slow day often follows an active day " rule is in effect.. Outside of a disturbance enhancing day to day rain potential, rare that it rains -every day-, in the same exact location as yesterday, during an active period. Esp. in the lower deserts. Tucson, Mtns, Borderland region? = better nearby terrain features for getting daily storms.. That's just how it is.. ....And it's not just AZ / Western NM that will see the season get kicked up a few notches next week.. Pretty much all of the region will see some deg. of increase in monsoonal storm activity, inc CA. *** See Dan's latest WX West blog post for those details / other thoughts.. *** https://weatherwest.com/archives/43915 Looking further out? ..For Now... second half of July / peek into Aug. looks ..respectable.. ....in terms of monsoon season precip lean chances. As always, take what you see suggested today w/ that dash of salt ..aand that healthy dose of " convince me " skepticism. While any activity that forms out by Hawaii won't do squat here, have to keep an eye on any possible T.C. storm development closer to Mexico as the E. Pac. goes into another active cycle. They may ..stay away.. or push pulses of deep tropical moisture our way. Empty SD card? ..check.. Tripod plate put where i won't loose it again, ..check.. Foothills / Borderlands greening up nicely, ..Asap? ....Let alone everyone's yards here in the valley and nearby getting some good soakings ..soon..? ..Fingers Crossed.... Saddle up, Buckle up, or take a seat ...Appears the show is about to start...