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Florida Winter 2022-2023


JLM

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Besides Archbold Biological Station, Destin, and FSU Tallahassee that I have been making comments about, a place to keep watch on is FSU Gainesville, for the same reason as FSU Tallahassee.
It's at an elevation 8m higher than the airport station, and in an area with mostly radiational frosts, which seems to make it low end 10a if not close based on the wunderground station - last winter for example was a 10a winter with only 1 frost, but they are forecast for the same -5 Celsius that the airport normally gets.

I can't say this enough, the advective nature of this freeze is really bringing big departures in both the radiation prone and radiation proof areas!

Edited by Can't think of username
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When the fringes of the February 2021 Texas freeze came to my area (FL Panhandle), the cold air was coming from almost due west. When this happened, I was amazed to see that the microclimates out at the barrier islands and other strips of land at the beach (like Destin) had hardly any effect at all. These coastal microclimates seem to work their magic best when a slower moving airmass comes in from the north so that the bodies of water to the north (such as Choctawhatchee Bay) have a much better ability to moderate the cold air.

It looks like this type of event we're about to have is similar in these dynamics as February 2021 (though this one being MUCH colder), so these communities on the ocean might feel this much more than your average winter cold snap. Additionally, the first hard freeze looks to be windy/advective: so that also is another factor that will lessen the coastal microclimate.

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3 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

This exemplifies well what I was referring to in my previous comment.

 

 

This is a 7 day mean.  20+ degrees variance from normal around Christmas is tilting the scale. Normal to above should occur after the 27th.

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33 minutes ago, Can't think of username said:

It's at an elevation 8m higher than the airport station, and in an area with mostly radiational frosts, which seems to make it low end 10a if not close based on the wunderground station - last winter for example was a 10a winter with only 1 frost.

I didn't find the weather station at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Google Maps, but I suspect this Davis Vantage Pro 2 is also being influenced by being sited high in the air and near a lot of concrete: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGAINE83

The urban portion of Gainesville averages out to roughly a high end 9a / low end 9b.  McCarty Hall is perhaps one of the best experimental gardens in the area, with a solid microclimate.  They tried a Wodyetia bifurcata (Foxtail) there.  It didn't make it very long: https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/topic/62809-foxtail-palm-in-gainesville-fl/?do=findComment&comment=926791

The average annual low over 30 years (AAL-30) at the NOAA stations that have records come up around 22F-24F.  Good for where it is sited and a gorgeous place.  According to the definition of a USDA zone, the average over that time would have to be 30F-35F.

A successful long-term attempt with Wodyetia would have made a good argument for zone 9b.  In Florida zone 10a, you start seeing more fruiting coconuts, dwarf betel nuts, etc.

You're already familiar with the Florida Freeze and Weather Station Data thread.  If you haven't done so already, grab the 2022_FloridaWeatherAlmanac.xls file from my post on June 26th, 2022 and take a look the stats for the Gainesville stations. 

image.thumb.png.5b3c7a6341d3d1c6297c1b7382dd2f3c.png

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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8 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

I didn't find the weather station at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Google Maps, but I suspect this Davis Vantage Pro 2 is also being influenced by being sited high in the air and near a lot of concrete: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGAINE83

The urban portion of Gainesville averages out to roughly a high end 9a / low end 9b.  McCarty Hall is perhaps one of the best experimental gardens in the area, with a solid microclimate.  They tried a Wodyetia bifurcata (Foxtail) there.  It didn't make it very long: https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/topic/62809-foxtail-palm-in-gainesville-fl/?do=findComment&comment=926791

The average annual low over 30 years (AAL-30) at the NOAA stations that have records come up around 22F-24F.  Good for where it is sited and a gorgeous place.  According to the definition of a USDA zone, the average over that time would have to be 30F-35F.

A successful long-term attempt with Wodyetia would have made a good argument for zone 9b.  In Florida zone 10a, you start seeing more fruiting coconuts, dwarf betel nuts, etc.

You're already familiar with the Florida Freeze and Weather Station Data thread.  If you haven't done so already, grab the 2022_FloridaWeatherAlmanac.xls file from my post on June 26th, 2022 and take a look the stats for the Gainesville stations. 

image.thumb.png.5b3c7a6341d3d1c6297c1b7382dd2f3c.png

Just the thing I needed to know, thank you once more! It's perfect that this has been tested.

So helpful once again.😁

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Discussion this morning of the arctic cold by the Mobile NWS (forecast area includes the western FL Panhandle).
 

“LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 524 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2022 Friday will be the first of two or three very cold days. High temperatures on Friday are currently forecast to stay freezing or below in the same general area mentioned in the short term (along and northwest of I-65). Elsewhere, highs will struggle to make it out of the 30s, even down towards the coast, although some highs in the low 40s at the immediate coast are possible. High temperatures on Friday, will be among the top 5 coldest daytime max temperatures for that date (the 23rd) ever for some areas. A few examples follow:

*Mobile area`s forecast high on Friday, 38 degrees, 3rd coldest ever.

*Pensacola are forecast high on Friday, 43 degrees, Ties for 3rd coldest ever.

*Evergreen forecast high on Friday, 35 degrees, 2nd coldest ever.

*Waynesboro forecast high on Friday, 30 degrees, ties for 2nd coldest ever.

On Friday night, expect a more prolonged hard freeze, across essentially the entire forecast area. Basically looking at teens for almost the entire region except closer to the immediate coastline where low/mid 20s are possible. A Hard Freeze Warning will be required for the entire area on Friday night. As stated in the headline, this will be one of the coldest air masses for this time of the year since 1989, but for now we are not expecting any record lows to be broken. Back in 1989, low temperatures associated with that arctic outbreak were generally in the low teen and single digits, so we should not be breaking any records with regard to low temperatures.

On Saturday, high temps do not rebound much, with temps currently forecast to remain freezing or below along and north of Highway 84, with temps elsewhere struggling to make it out of the 30s. A hard freeze is again anticipated on Saturday night for almost the entire region once again with lows mainly 20 or below, except closer to the immediate coast.

By Sunday night, hard freeze temps are then forecast to lift north to mainly areas along and north of Highway 84. As for high temps through the rest of the period, a slow moderation will occur, however still chilly, with highs on Sunday (Christmas Day) ranging from the mid 30s over the northern counties to the low/mid 40s down closer to and along the coast.

By Monday, highs should be in the mid and upper 40s for most locations, with some low 50s along the coast. Lastly, in addition to a hard freeze, expect some very windy conditions, especially on Friday in the wake of the arctic front. This will likely result in Wind Chill Advisories and Wind Advisories also being likely (potentially through Christmas weekend), and preparations should be being made now. JEH/88”

Edited by Matthew92
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12 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

preparations should be being made now.

I was probably pretty close to clearing out my local Walmart's stock of flat sheets lastnight because of this cold snap. I ended up spending almost $300 on supplies lastnight which includes extra extension cords and a lot more Christmas lights. So far, this plan is going smoothly. After it stops raining today, ill probably go out and tie everything up so it will make wrapping easier tomorrow and Thursday (this will probably take longer than a day).

You might think im crazy for spending this much money, but the way i see it is if another cold snap like this happens again, ill already have the supplies and there will be no need to buy more.

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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Forecast has changed here:

  • NWS: 32/33/34 for Fri/Sat/Sun
  • Weather.com: 30/29/33 for Fri/Sat/Sun
  • Wunderground.com: <Same as Weather.com>
  • Accuweather.com: 30/32/31 for Fri/Sat/Sun

This will probably open up some space in the garden.

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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I look forward to this haha)

Forecasts for my area as of now:

NWS:  35F, 37F, 42F

Weatherunderground: 32F, 33F, 39F

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Brevard County, Fl

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Not much change overall with the NWS forecast except for Thursday night. Thursday night has been the most uncertain out of all of them. The first forecast showed 23F, then it went up to 27F as of yesterday, and now its dropped back to the original 23F.
Anyways, heres the comparisons between NWS, TWC, and Accuweather forecasts for Thursday thru Sunday night.
NWS: 23F, 19F, 21F, 23F
The Weather Channel: 22F, 19F, 21F, 24F
Accuweather: 24F, 17F, 18F, 22F

Among the GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, GEFS, and EPS, here is my average forecast low for each night: 28F, 20F, 21F, 24F

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

Forecast has changed here:

  • NWS: 32/33/34 for Fri/Sat/Sun
  • Weather.com: 30/29/33 for Fri/Sat/Sun
  • Wunderground.com: <Same as Weather.com>
  • Accuweather.com: 30/32/31 for Fri/Sat/Sun

This will probably open up some space in the garden.

 

49 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

I look forward to this haha)

Forecasts for my area as of now:

NWS:  35F, 37F, 42F

Weatherunderground: 32F, 33F, 39F

Looking like 3 nights in the 30s here as well! 50 some hours below 50 deg.

F6A7D485-43E4-41F6-81BE-A944E07E1383.thumb.jpeg.baae4e618abd492d9e12476c20431db2.jpeg
 

27 minutes ago, JLM said:

Not much change overall with the NWS forecast except for Thursday night. Thursday night has been the most uncertain out of all of them. The first forecast showed 23F, then it went up to 27F as of yesterday, and now its dropped back to the original 23F.
Anyways, heres the comparisons between NWS, TWC, and Accuweather forecasts for Thursday thru Sunday night.
NWS: 23F, 19F, 21F, 23F
The Weather Channel: 22F, 19F, 21F, 24F
Accuweather: 24F, 17F, 18F, 22F

Among the GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, GEFS, and EPS, here is my average forecast low for each night: 28F, 20F, 21F, 24F

Whoa thats cold no matter what you're used to. 

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It’s forecasted to be 25, 25, and 28 degrees over three nights here. Does anyone know a good brand of frost blanket? I’m gonna need to protect an 8 ft tall king palm. 

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11 minutes ago, JDawgs said:

It’s forecasted to be 25, 25, and 28 degrees over three nights here. Does anyone know a good brand of frost blanket? I’m gonna need to protect an 8 ft tall king palm. 

I have never used that before. I just use sheets to protect the palm from being burnt by the christmas lights, and then plastic on the outside to hold the heat in.

Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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The forecast keeps changing for NW Orlando.  As of right now it's high/low starting with Friday at 66/31 then Saturday 48/31, Sunday 49/35 and warming up on Monday to 59/44.  The lows have jumped around a few degrees, but not by a lot.  Of course in the summer I say that the forecasters just have a dartboard with random numbers on it...and choose the forecast with random throws. 

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1 hour ago, D. Morrowii said:

 

Looking like 3 nights in the 30s here as well! 50 some hours below 50 deg.

F6A7D485-43E4-41F6-81BE-A944E07E1383.thumb.jpeg.baae4e618abd492d9e12476c20431db2.jpeg
 

Whoa thats cold no matter what you're used to. 

That sucks if you are a coconut palm

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Brevard County, Fl

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I could be looking at somewhere between 55-60 hours of below freezing temperatures with the current NWS forecast. Possibly could see more depending on how the forecast looks beyond 7 days.

Thursday during the day is quite warm with a high of 66F. By 12 AM, the temperature is still in the 50's. However, the temperature drops like a rock thats been thrown into the Grand Canyon. By 3 AM, the temperature is 38F, and the temp falls below freezing shortly after 4 AM. The temperature stays below freezing until noon Friday, giving 8-9 hours below freezing.

The high on Friday is rather cold at 37F by 2 PM. The temp begins to fall by 4 PM and goes below freezing between 5-6 PM. The temp falls into the 20's between 6-7 PM. By 12 AM, the temperature is 22F. The temp falls to 20F by 3 AM, and dips to 19F for 2 hours (5-6 AM). The temp does not rise above freezing until 11AM-12PM Saturday. This gives 18-19 hours below freezing, and 4-5 hours of hard freeze conditions. Based on the way this forecasts looks, it probably wont take much to drop below the forecasted 19F.

The high on Saturday tops out at 37F. The timeline here is pretty similar to Friday.  A temperature of 21F is reached at 4 AM and stays 21F thru 5 AM. Temps begin rising from 5 AM onward, and finally rises above freezing by 10 AM. This gives 16-17 hours below freezing, and possibly up to 2 hours of hard freeze conditions. Hard freeze conditions is not forecasted, but is possible if temperatures go lower than the current forecast. All it would take is 1F lower.

Christmas Day tops out at 41F, which is better than the previous days. Temperatures begin falling by 4 PM, but dont fall below freezing until 6-7 PM. An ultimate low of 23F is achieved by 4 AM, and stays at 23F thru 5 AM. The temperatures rises above freezing between 8-9 AM Monday. This gives 14-15 hours below freezing.

The high on Monday is 49F, which is a pretty comfortable number. I would suspect that the next night will see a low in the mid-upper 20's.

Regardless, it appears that i will have a lot of wrapped up palms in my yard for several days. 

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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1 hour ago, JDawgs said:

It’s forecasted to be 25, 25, and 28 degrees over three nights here. Does anyone know a good brand of frost blanket? I’m gonna need to protect an 8 ft tall king palm. 

I picked up a roll of frost cloth from Lowes last year. The brand was Frost Shield, a  6’x50’ roll was around $35. With a 25 light strand of C9 bulbs under it I was able to keep it about 7 deg above ambient for my 6’ tall flamethrower. If you doubled up the fabric and doubled the lights I bet you could raise the temps 15 degrees or more. The bulbs will melt that cloth so what I did was put the lights around the base of the tree and let the heat get captured by the frost cloth.

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NWS Forecast was revised down again to: 30/30/35

The one concern I've had going into this year is that I've been seeing much deeper radiational cooling since I had the pool and pavers removed.  This fall, I've noticed the lows generally being lower than at KLAL.  New rule: Do not bulldoze 1,000 sq. ft. of 1ft thick concrete with dark colored pavers pressed into it if you have anything sensitive to frost.

For the folks covering and heating, good luck with it all.  I'll probably cover the new Medemia argun patch with a layer of landscape fabric to keep the frost out of it.  Not sure if I'll bother with anything beyond that or not.  I didn't last year and everything made it, but the duration looks to be a bit longer this year.

It looks like it will be wet immediately before this one.  Keep a bottle of hydrogen peroxide handy for those post-freeze fungal infections.

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

NWS Forecast was revised down again to: 30/30/35

I should just wait for the actual event, but I like playing this game.

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/fl/melbourne/KFLMELBO595

weather underground has me now at 35F, 36F, 45F

NWS has me at 35F, 35F, and 42F

Edited by Jimbean
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Brevard County, Fl

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6 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

I should just wait for the actual event, but I like playing this game.

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/fl/melbourne/KFLMELBO595

weather underground has me now at 35F, 36F, 45F

NWS has me at 35F, 35F, and 42F

Same.  It would be time better spent in the weight room or cleaning the garage.  If I get the chance, I'm going to benchmark a few of my sensors against a few of the airports from as little distance as I can manage without spending the holidays at Grady's Bed and Breakfast.

The AmbientWeather and AcuRite stations in particular seem to record temperatures that are ~3-5F lower than the airport they're near unless they are mounted in an area that would ruin the reading (on an eave near a roof, between two houses with little distance between, etc.).  Orlando, Plant City, Lakeland, et al seem to be off by enough of a margin to be meaningful during a typical event like this.  I did a short benchmark at KLAL a few weeks ago with a red liquid thermometer and it was between 2F and 3F lower for the hours I measured after having an hour to acclimate.

There was some talk a while back about the ASOS stations reading high due to a flaw that allowed heat to build up, but I think that flaw had been corrected.  The Nimbus stations shouldn't have that issue.

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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As expected, the forecasts always trend colder towards the event. NWS now has Orlando lows as 31, 31, 36 with highs in the upper 40s both Sat and Sun.  I will be using my propane heater for the coconut and bought a 2nd one given the duration of this arctic air.  

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New NWS forecast. Saturday night has trended much colder. NWS is saying that both high and low temperatures may need to be adjusted downward on the coldest days.

Thursday
Hi: 66F
Lo: 23F
Wind: 15-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph

Friday
Hi: 35F
Lo: 19F
Wind: 15-20 mph with gusts to 40 mph

Saturday
Hi: 36F
Lo: 19F
Wind: 10 mph

Sunday
Hi: 42F
Lo: 25F
Wind: 5-10 mph

Monday
Hi: 50F
Lo: 32F
Wind: 5 mph

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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Friday 61/27, Saturday 41/28, Sunday 46/35

Probably going to cover some of my other tropicals like hibiscus and ti plants but not my Z10 palms. I've already made peace with my foxtail and p. elegans biting the dust "vaya con dios". 

More upsetting is the fact that I'll be outside throwing a brisket on the smoker Saturday morning with a feels like in the teens. The in laws better enjoy it!

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Jacksonville Beach, FL

Zone 9a

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Here is the updated forecast lows for Thursday - Sunday nights: 24F, 18F, 19F, 23F

A Hard Freeze Watch has been issued for Friday night thru Sunday morning.

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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1 hour ago, JLM said:

Here is the updated forecast lows for Thursday - Sunday nights: 24F, 18F, 19F, 23F

A Hard Freeze Watch has been issued for Friday night thru Sunday morning.

Yes- and I won't repost the wall of text, but the Mobile NWS discussion this morning is quite ominous (again). There's mention that it could trend even colder than the current forecast with 20F or even slightly below all the way to the coast. 🥶 

Edited by Matthew92
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On 12/20/2022 at 1:30 PM, JDawgs said:

It’s forecasted to be 25, 25, and 28 degrees over three nights here. Does anyone know a good brand of frost blanket? I’m gonna need to protect an 8 ft tall king palm. 

I am also in St Augustine and lost 2 kings last winter despite extensive protection with a HUGE high quality frost blanket for my 12 foot palms.  Most of the frost blankets are decent quality, I have found. I have all kinds and sizes.  The mistake I made was not making sure the protection for my Kings went all the way down to the ground to ensure that warmth was going up into the covered areas. - see the pic.  DONT” do this!   IF you can get up to the fronds and tie them up around the spear AND then wrap them, cover them, do it.  Ultimately, all of my fronds and the spears were burnt during the December and January dips to 25 degrees. Months later though, I could tell that the trunk was probably ok with fungicide and care. But it would have taken years to regain the foliage and probably never happen here. So - I have given up on Adonidia and Kings despite convincing myself I could do it in this area. I am sticking to Cold Hardies - and even then, I have a lot of wrapping and covering to do for my Queen, copernicia, p.robellini, and other palms and stuff this weekend.  Deep Water good tomorrow!  Anyway - good luck.  I don’t mean to be a debbie downer - but I hope it survives this weekend.  Do the best you can. Merry Christmas! 

DAAB3165-CC79-4D16-B98B-CC61BB020020.jpeg

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9a NE Florida: 2 Phoenix Sylvester; 1 p.robellini; 2 Bismarckia nobilis; 1 Trachycarpus fortunei; 3  livistonia chenesis; 1 Dypsis decaryi; 1 Rhapis excelsa; 1 Sabal palmetto; 1 (double) Copernicia alba; 1 Chamaedorea catractarum 1 Licuala grandis, 1 Beaucanea recurvata, numerous cycads, tropicals, orchids. Winter 2022/23 Low 25F

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If this forecast holds, it's a move in the positive direction. 

The first night is clear with 31F, so that is the bad one.  If we have cloud cover the next two nights, it might be cold but we shouldn't get that thick, heavy frost in the open areas that this location would get otherwise.  I checked a few of the stations on the I-4 and I-95 corridors, and it seems every airport forecast had at least partly cloudy the first night and mostly cloudy the second night.

My intent is to capture the NWS 3-day history at the Florida airports on Christmas and post them as a ZIP file for later reference.

image.thumb.png.a6a899726c69a2f150bd03f8dda359fb.png

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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Latest of each of the main computer model runs to give an idea of forecasting guidance with this. Remember your low temp could end up being a little colder or warmer than forecast. This first significant  freeze will be windy/advective. 
 

These model runs are all pretty uniform with the CMC and ICON being the coldest. My best estimate is that we will see roughly a repeat of a January 2018 type temps. Looking back to when that event happened, I had forgotten this, but for some, forecasts were a couple degrees higher than how it turned out as we got to the actual event. Like I said- be prepared for warmer or COLDER than your current forecast: as when the arctic front starts moving through it’s more “now-casting” or looking at real time temperatures then looking at model/forecast guidance.

Another thing to consider is that it is more difficult in forecasting lows when it comes to the radiation Freeze events (after this first night). I live in a very radiational freeze prone location and there’s been many a time where it ended up being MUCH colder than forecast. After the front initially moves through- per the Mobile NWS- the backside arctic high pressure will be centered(!) near the FL Panhandle which means this arctic air mass will be firmly entrenched over much of the state which could wreak havoc for some of us with radiational freeze events for at least 2-3 or more nights after the initial advective freeze. 

EA9D65BB-AEC4-4484-8F5D-3AB12E8076AD.jpeg.9ccf29fca068d0cc1e565d3849ecbcf0.jpeg
7574EEF4-8EE1-444E-9FBA-9091371B53E5.jpeg.9c7b5904885caf1df6d38f9d00a426ba.jpeg

171370B7-4746-4DF8-A988-95C72A5E7C91.jpeg.3356f72208205f64d9aa95455883b5a3.jpeg

A6F4F53D-2AB6-4E80-BDA9-801323395692.jpeg.752f4bfd192efa66614fff1b852705da.jpeg

FAEC80DA-06DC-485F-947A-66FEAC8F5B38.jpeg.2926f53d32d73b4fbf272a1128c34b74.jpeg

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10 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

If this forecast holds, it's a move in the positive direction. 

The first night is clear with 31F, so that is the bad one.  If we have cloud cover the next two nights, it might be cold but we shouldn't get that thick, heavy frost in the open areas that this location would get otherwise.  I checked a few of the stations on the I-4 and I-95 corridors, and it seems every airport forecast had at least partly cloudy the first night and mostly cloudy the second night.

My intent is to capture the NWS 3-day history at the Florida airports on Christmas and post them as a ZIP file for later reference.

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I'm same as you but reversed.  32F and 31F.  I agree the 31 would be suspect with clouds.

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If anyone is available, I suggest starting a separate thread to document detailed Wunderground screenshots during the freeze(s). I’m on vacation currently and won’t be around to do it this time.

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Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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54 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

Latest of each of the main computer model runs to give an idea of forecasting guidance with this. Remember your low temp could end up being a little colder or warmer than forecast. This first significant  freeze will be windy/advective. 
 

These model runs are all pretty uniform with the CMC and ICON being the coldest. My best estimate is that we will see roughly a repeat of a January 2018 type temps. Looking back to when that event happened, I had forgotten this, but for some, forecasts were a couple degrees higher than how it turned out as we got to the actual event. Like I said- be prepared for warmer or COLDER than your current forecast: as when the arctic front starts moving through it’s more “now-casting” or looking at real time temperatures then looking at model/forecast guidance.

Another thing to consider is that it is more difficult in forecasting lows when it comes to the radiation Freeze events (after this first night). I live in a very radiational freeze prone location and there’s been many a time where it ended up being MUCH colder than forecast. After the front initially moves through- per the Mobile NWS- the backside arctic high pressure will be centered(!) near the FL Panhandle which means this arctic air mass will be firmly entrenched over much of the state which could wreak havoc for some of us with radiational freeze events for at least 2-3 or more nights after the initial advective freeze. 

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Bye bye Archbold if there is a radiational freeze, that's it's Achilles heel. Last season's January 30 2022 radiational freeze was -7 Celsius there.😱

Places like Destin, FSU Tallahassee and Gainesville, and Jacksonville Beach are very good at handling radiational freezes though, courtesy of either being on the water or elevated urban heat islands. They may still freeze but they won't get off hard like Archbold.

Edited by Can't think of username
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1 hour ago, Can&#x27;t think of username said:

Bye bye Archbold if there is a radiational freeze, that's it's Achilles heel. Last season's January 30 2022 radiational freeze was -7 Celsius there.😱

Places like Destin, FSU Tallahassee and Gainesville, and Jacksonville Beach are very good at handling radiational freezes though, courtesy of either being on the water or elevated urban heat islands. They may still freeze but they won't get off hard like Archbold.

I tend to do well in radiational events in Orlando. I'm off an 1800 acre lake that is about 60 degrees right now.  Time will tell I suppose. 

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  So far lows of 34, 34, 36 and 39 forecasted Friday night through Monday night. I have no plans to protect anything. Forecast is calling for lots of wind and/or clouds until Monday night. Monday night has the chance of being a sneaky radiational cooling night with lots of frost around the area. Will just have to wait and see how it all plays out. 

Edited by ruskinPalms

Parrish, FL

Zone 9B

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Both of my Queens are now protected. It wont be too hard to protect the rest. I still need to protect the Foxtail, Bottle, Majesties, Bismarckia, Mule, Washy, and the super dwarf banana. All should be easy.

Washy and Majesties are not getting heat. The rest will get heat but they should not be hard to protect at all. The Mule and Bizzy are both small enough to just get a large pot put over them with the lights inside.

Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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8 hours ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

I tend to do well in radiational events in Orlando. I'm off an 1800 acre lake that is about 60 degrees right now.  Time will tell I suppose. 

11 hours ago, pj_orlando_z9b said:

I'm same as you but reversed.  32F and 31F.  I agree the 31 would be suspect with clouds.

I'd say so as well - your location is one of the most protected from radiational cooling away from the coast.  Forecast is a bit lower here, but the clouds are still in it for the second and third night.  There are two freeze watches issued here and one freeze watch issued over in Orange county.  @ruskinPalms might have hit the nail on the head with a "sneaky frost" on Monday for open and exposed areas.

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone (2012): 9b | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (1985, 1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a | 30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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🥶
image.thumb.png.9531bac670ec430ac96924bba33f6068.png

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Palms - 3 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 2 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. sylvestris, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 2 BxS, 1 C. nucifera, 1 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa

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