Florida Winter 2021-2022

[JJPalmer]

Here are my screenshots from this morning. Sorry for the lack of cropping and coverage - my phone was acting up.  

[Jimbean]

Selected locations

FIT campus in Melbourne

[IHB1979]

45F in my Indian Harbour Beach yard.

[Jimbean]

Interbay Peninsula Tampa

[Jimbean]

Port St. Lucie near I-95

[Jimbean]

Pinellas Park

[Palmarum]

It was not as cold as I had expected. There was no breeze or wind at least. Still enough to drive the fauna crazy into finding hiding spots.

Ryan

[SubTropicRay]

My low was 46F this morning.  It's by far the latest into the winter season it took to dip so low.  This winter has been one for the warm record books.  Let's hope it stays that way.  The AO is predicted to stay positive which makes freezes deep into Florida very unlikely.

[ruskinPalms]

43F for my location this morning. 

[Nicko_StPete]

I recorded a low around 7-8am at 42F for about an hour it looks. Crazy… Hopefully this was the lowest in my area for the winter… Damn. Thank you everyone though for the amazing stats and heads up. Hopefully this was the coldest night.

[kinzyjr]

NWS overnight lows for the airport along the I-4 Corridor (see Excel attachment for records for each station from just before midnight):

• KTPA (Tampa Intl): 42F
• KPCM (Plant City): 41F
• KLAL (Lakeland): 37F
• KBOW (Bartow): 41F
• KGIF (Winter Haven): 42F
• KISM (Kissimmee): 41F
• KMCO (Orlando Intl): 41F
• KORL (Orlando Exec): 42F
• KSFB (Sanford): 41F
• KDED (Deland): 36F
• KDAB (Daytona Beach): 38F

Personal Observations: The range for the sensors in the yard was pretty tight this time - from 41F to 42.6F.  It was still above 50F last night when the football game ended, so I figured we'd caught a break on this one.  The local airport still got pretty cold though.

202201180000_AirportRecords.xlsx

[RedRabbit]

Let’s see, my lows came in at:

-Westchase: 39.6f

-Kenwood: ~42f

-Laurel: ~45f

Edited January 19, 2022 by RedRabbit

[JLM]

29F in my backyard lastnight. Frost on just about everything too.

[kinzyjr]

All I can say is thank heavens for UHIs:

[Matthew92]

2 hours ago, JLM said:

29F in my backyard lastnight. Frost on just about everything too.

Yep, about the same here. VERY HEAVY frost.

[bubba]

Sorry to Matt and JLM and will refrain from Being myopic.

[Jimbean]

Most everything came in what I expected, except most of Port St. Lucie came in a tad warmer, the areas outside of Vero Beach and Palm Bay came in a tad cooler. 

[Matthew92]

2 hours ago, bubba said:

Sorry to Matt and JLM and will refrain from Being myopic.

All's good. 

[Matthew92]

Well, this may be the coldest my forecast gets. Still amazed that with such a favorable pattern for hard freezes in at least the northern part of the state (with the huge ridge in the west and troughing in the east)- the coldest in the forecast is 27 degrees (living here since 2007- we almost always hit mid to low 20's each winter). I do have to be thankful though that we're not getting "nuked" as I helped out my parents put in new landscaping this past year that includes some marginal plants (hope to post that project in another thread soon). 

After checking computer models/guidance this morning, it's looking like the true arctic air will stay farther north due to a lack of weather dynamics/mechanism to shunt it down to our state. Still could change- or we could still have a February surprise. But as mentioned earlier in the thread- this cold pattern is looking to go away in early February.

Still, it is going to be quite some less than picture perfect weather the next few days here. High of 43 and rain on Friday!  Besides the rare event like the late Jan 2014 "ice storm," this is some of the most unpleasant winter weather you'll see for the FL Panhandle. Some weather models were even showing some kind of winter precipitation Friday night as well- but at the moment that doesn't look as likely.

Edited January 19, 2022 by Matthew92

[Aceraceae]

Is there any colder spot than Crestview to check on google weather? Crestview is the coldest city in FL but maybe there's some zip code that would come in a degree or two lower, just like Crestview usually comes in colder nights, but warmer days, than DeFuniak Springs. 

A few zip codes such as Milton and 32565 show up sporadically some days colder, some warmer. Usually if there's no unique station, Google will add or subtract a degree for nearby urban/rural areas in reference to an actual station forecast. Somewhere in the Blackwater River state forest or in some open hills and valleys should be the coldest spot, where the rating is 8b instead of 8b. 

Edited January 19, 2022 by Aceraceae

[palmsOrl]

Fountain and Jay, Fl are sometimes colder than Crestview.  I read somewhere that the average January low in Fountain,FL is 36.8F, which is the coldest i have found in Florida.

[Matthew92]

6 hours ago, palmsOrl said:

Fountain and Jay, Fl are sometimes colder than Crestview.  I read somewhere that the average January low in Fountain,FL is 36.8F, which is the coldest i have found in Florida.

Despite not being right near the Alabama line- the area around Fountain, FL (a little ways north of Panama City) is very cold. I noticed it basically mirrors the cold spots near Crestview on cold nights. Interestingly I came across this recently regarding Chipley, FL (neighboring town to Fountain). It holds the second lowest recorded temperature for the state at 2 degrees F! This region is more of an upland area with gentle hills and sinkhole lakes (it reminds me of areas on the Lake Wales Ridge in the peninsula). A lot of it is somewhat more exposed due to prevalent timber operations resulting with a lack of canopy as well as many areas where the soil is so poor that the only vegetation are sparse scrub trees only 15-20ft high. My theory regarding it being so cold is that it's much due to the exposed nature of the landscape that lets the cold north winds come in without abatement.

Chipley, Florida. Showcase of Small Town Old Florida (florida-backroads-travel.com)

Chipley, Florida - Wikipedia

Edited January 20, 2022 by Matthew92

[JLM]

40 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

Despite not being right near the Alabama line- the area around Fountain, FL (a little ways north of Panama City) is very cold. I noticed it basically mirrors the cold spots near Crestview on cold nights. Interestingly I came across this recently regarding Chipley, FL (neighboring town to Fountain). It holds the second lowest recorded temperature for the state at 2 degrees F! This region is more of an upland area with gentle hills and sinkhole lakes (it reminds me of areas on the Lake Wales Ridge in the peninsula). A lot of it is somewhat more exposed due to prevalent timber operations resulting with a lack of canopy as well as many areas where the soil is so poor that the only vegetation are sparse scrub trees only 15-20ft high. My theory regarding it being so cold is that it's much due to the exposed nature of the landscape that lets the cold north winds come in without abatement.

Chipley, Florida. Showcase of Small Town Old Florida (florida-backroads-travel.com)

Chipley, Florida - Wikipedia

This is especially true since most of the tall pines were wiped out across that area during Hurricane Michael.

17 hours ago, bubba said:

Sorry to Matt and JLM and will refrain from Being myopic.

You're all good! 

[Rapha2343]

Does anyone know what other winters in the recent past were La Niña winters? I mean around 2008-2021 (Dec-Jan-Feb) and 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Rapha2343

[Silas_Sancona]

15 minutes ago, Rapha2343 said:

Does anyone know what other winters in the recent past were La Niña winters? I mean around 2008-2021 (Dec-Jan-Feb) and 

If the link works,  here's a chart of all the ENSO episodes, going back in time..  Blue #'s = La Nina /  Red #'s, = El Nino:  " Strong " La Nina would be #'s greater than Neg. 1.5-2 ( Opposite w/ El Nino )

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

[Rapha2343]

1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

If the link works,  here's a chart of all the ENSO episodes, going back in time..  Blue #'s = La Nina /  Red #'s, = El Nino:  " Strong " La Nina would be #'s greater than Neg. 1.5-2 ( Opposite w/ El Nino )

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Alright, thanks buddy! Link does work!

[Aceraceae]

La Nina doesn't always mean cold winter in the northeast as much as a strong El Nino seems to mean warm. 

[aabell]

Sunday night low forecast has dropped by 5 degrees in the past day or so. I'll be shocked if we get that cold at my location (Fort Myers), but shaping up to be the coldest night of the year by a good margin.

[D. Morrowii]

3 hours ago, aabell said:

Sunday night low forecast has dropped by 5 degrees in the past day or so. I'll be shocked if we get that cold at my location (Fort Myers), but shaping up to be the coldest night of the year by a good margin.

Seeing a similar forecast on the East coast. Its slipped from 42 to 39 over the last couple days. My lowest low so far this winter was 41.8 last Monday. The dips are pretty short lived at least.

[Aceraceae]

Upper 30s with too much humidity to allow a freeze in central FL, maybe even too humid for frost below Orlando. 

Brownsville TX will reach mid 30s (40 for SPI), with rain but not quite the ice storm. Freezing rain will reach the coast down to Charleston, but not the Outer Banks! The Outer Banks are beyond the coast. 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Aceraceae

[JLM]

Expecting 26F-27F Saturday night, with several nights around 32F. Saturday night will end up being the biggest test for the foxtail, which is currently wrapped up and will not be unwrapped for a few days, possibly longer than a week. Freezing rain is possible briefly tomorrow morning, we will see how that goes too.

[kinzyjr]

Time for another episode of "Who Forecasted Better"

 

[chinandega81]

6 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Time for another episode of "Who Forecasted Better"

 

What i've observed is the weather channel's forecast reflects model changes almost immediately and therefor can show big swings from day to day. It seems like NOAA follows suit but only makes small, incremental changes but ultimately gets to the same place, assuming the forecasted weather event actually happens. My assumption is to assume colder than forecast in winter, I never rely on th warmer ones as they are usually at urban heat island locations and 6 feet above the air.

[Jimbean]

Right now I'm looking at 43F Monday morning.

[D. Morrowii]

11 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Time for another episode of "Who Forecasted Better"

 

Thats a bit of a difference for sure. I checked the same soyrces for where I am and it was only one degree difference. 

[Aceraceae]

Homestead could fall to the low 40s, but miami/beach should hold onto 50. Lakes Wales ridge shows mid to upper 30s, colder than Orlando, but with near saturated humidity, so no freeze. 

[Estlander]

17 hours ago, JLM said:

Expecting 26F-27F Saturday night, with several nights around 32F. Saturday night will end up being the biggest test for the foxtail, which is currently wrapped up and will not be unwrapped for a few days, possibly longer than a week. Freezing rain is possible briefly tomorrow morning, we will see how that goes too.

Yikes!

You have a Foxtail planted outside up there? That's ok! I have an Adonidia Merillii in the ground here lol.  Currently NWS shows a low of 31F and Weather.com a low of 32F and Wunderground.com a low of 33F  for me Saturday night.

Hopefully I won't drop below 30F.  Hoping to have another 10A winter, which would make it the fourth one in a row since 2017/18.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Estlander

[JLM]

1 hour ago, Estlander said:

Yikes!

You have a Foxtail planted outside up there? That's ok! I have an Adonidia Merillii in the ground here lol.  Currently NWS shows a low of 31F and Weather.com a low of 32F and Wunderground.com a low of 33F  for me Saturday night.

Hopefully I won't drop below 30F.  Hoping to have another 10A winter, which would make it the fourth one in a row since 2017/18.

Yep, in ground, its been taking it pretty well thus far and has continued to grow up to this point. I guess we both have our own little experiement going on lol. I dont think i would ever try with an Adonidia in ground here, i have a double thats potted but i dont plan to plant it. We have had a 9b winter so far with about 2 nights that have dipped into the upper 20's, Saturday night will be the coldest night so far this winter. Wind chills in the upper teens expected.

[Matthew92]

This is a great graphic to reference in looking at upcoming possible winter weather/freeze events.

 

 

[kinzyjr]

On 1/21/2022 at 6:47 AM, chinandega81 said:

What i've observed is the weather channel's forecast reflects model changes almost immediately and therefor can show big swings from day to day. It seems like NOAA follows suit but only makes small, incremental changes but ultimately gets to the same place, assuming the forecasted weather event actually happens. My assumption is to assume colder than forecast in winter, I never rely on th warmer ones as they are usually at urban heat island locations and 6 feet above the air.

In this case, both forecasts are for the airport which is very near the county line with Hillsborough.  The weather station is just to the east of the terminal.  I've noticed the same; that the readings tend to tighten as you get closer to the actual event.  In this case, the forecast has tightened up, so the range is down to 2F.

Looking further ahead, seems like Old Man Winter doesn't take weekends off.