Florida Winter 2021-2022

[JLM]

Its not winter yet, thankfully, but the cold fronts have started. There have been cold fronts periodically, but you could never tell a difference from them, that is until the week before last week. A cold front came through and knocked morning temps into the low 60's, highs remained the upper 80's though. Looking ahead into this week, another cold front is forecast to sink south across the eastern US. Morning temps here are currently forecast to be in the upper 50's toward the end of this week, highs in the upper 70's to low 80's. If this comes to pass, it would be the first noticeable cold front of the season

[chinandega81]

I saw online that they are forecasting abnormally warm temperatures in the Arctic for December and January which tends to displace the artic airmasses out of the Artciv and into the lower latitudes. They could obviously go anywhere, but over the course of at least 2 months I would imagine everyone would get in on them. It seems like they will deep far south. I'm afraid this could be a much colder winter than last winter...which was more on the consistently cool side vs. outright cold. We might have some roller coaster temp swings with more heat but more pronounced cold. We will have to wait and see. Last winter, the seasonal outlook was a bomb, they were forecasting a bullseye of much above normal temps centered in Texas...and the Febraury brought historic and sustained cold there. Hopefully we can catch a break this winter. It seems like global warming just destablizes the "typical" atmosphere and makes things just more extreme. Fingers crossed.

[kinzyjr]

Looks like it will be a bit more comfortable with the start of fall.

[bubba]

I appreciate that we are already looking forward to Winter 2021-2022. 
 

Does this mean Cape Verde and Hurricane season are over?

[JLM]

6 hours ago, bubba said:

I appreciate that we are already looking forward to Winter 2021-2022. 
 

Does this mean Cape Verde and Hurricane season are over?

Hurricane season lasts until the end of November...

Its not uncommon to have strong cold fronts and hurricanes going at the same time.

[palmsOrl]

Cape Verde season usually winds down in late September give or take, so we will probably have another fish storm or two then all eyes to the Caribbean and Western Atlantic (and the Gulf).

[bubba]

Cape Verde season in PB is 8/15 to 9/15 with the exception of 1928 (9/16). It extends to around 9/20 in Miami. The Keys a bit later historically. No Cape Verde’s this year for Florida. Tropical Tidbit runs show no hurricane activity in US through October 7, 2021.

Hurricane season in Florida turns into “Sidewinder Season” from October-November. These storms roll out of the deep W. Caribbean and curve sideways from west to east across Florida. These storms (Wilma) are far less strong and destructive when compared to Cape Verde’s (Andrew).

Hurricane season is no longer an issue and now is in the rear view mirror and meaningless. The La Palma volcano eruption will now unleash a 300 foot Megatsunami on the state of Florida and entire eastern continental US coast, ending civilization. All of this reporting from a distorted and fallacious 2001 paper that was soundly rebuked by real science in 2011. Why me worry...

 

 

[JLM]

Dipped down into the upper 50's on the coolest nights. Not sure what the actual temp was, havent checked yet. Fake fall is over, Summer is coming back. Highs in the upper 80's expected again in relatively short order.

[chinandega81]

Not that this would mean anything, but what is this winter supposed to be like in Florida? I am sooo ready for a nice, mild Florida winter with no more porlonged cold spells. The occasional fronts are fine, but when we have the parade of fronts that are relentless, it sets everything back. On top of that as we saw last winter, we had a very cool and dry Spring and that turned into a mild{ish and dry summer and now continuation into Fall. I hope this winter stays on the dry and warm to mild side.

[JLM]

On 10/3/2021 at 9:34 AM, chinandega81 said:

Not that this would mean anything, but what is this winter supposed to be like in Florida? I am sooo ready for a nice, mild Florida winter with no more porlonged cold spells. The occasional fronts are fine, but when we have the parade of fronts that are relentless, it sets everything back. On top of that as we saw last winter, we had a very cool and dry Spring and that turned into a mild{ish and dry summer and now continuation into Fall. I hope this winter stays on the dry and warm to mild side.

I hope it dries out here some this winter in Northwest Florida. The average rainfall at the Pensacola Airport for this time of year is 54.6" - 4.5 ft. We hae had 83.9" - 7 ft this year so far. 10" has fallen just this month. Yes, 10" already in October, and its only the 5th. 29" - 2.4 ft above the average so far this year. The backyard is overgrown, and ive had close calls with a few snakes already in the past week, but unfortunately i cant even mow it because its too wet. Im hoping for a mild winter as well.

[SubTropicRay]

The February Texas freeze still has my mind churning.  That type of cold front hadn't been seen in so long, I thought they'd thankfully stopped making them.  Well that's not true anymore.  Without the high pressure ridge over Florida,  the memories of 1989 would have been replaced by those of 2021.   Those nasty ones come in twos, threes and fours i.e. 1982, 1983, 1985 and 1989.  Unfortunately, I think the next one is right around the corner.  I'll be on even higher alert going forward.   Just like hurricane season, it takes just one day to ruin the season.     

[kinzyjr]

I suppose there are those that do not appreciate the extended summer thus far: 

https://www.theledger.com/story/weather/2021/10/12/when-will-cooler-temperatures-arrive-in-florida-hot-season-cold-front-does-it-snow-in-florida/6091479001/

With a bit more rain, maybe October can make up for the late start to the rainy season this year:

[bubba]

Kinsey,

Thank you for an interesting article in the Lakeland Ledger, which cites a doctoral thesis as the main source. The thesis makes an interesting observation that does not seem to be supported by the data relied upon for the assessment.

The statement I question is

”End of hot season arrives earlier on the Atlantic than on the Gulf. This is difficult to explain because in fall the surface water temperatures in the Gulf drop more rapidly than the Atlantic at the same latitude.” Table 3 is the apparent basis for this conclusion.

Table 3 includes 4 locations on the Gulf. Tarpon Springs (north of Tampa)-Nov. 4, Tampa-October 27, Ft. Myers-November 5 and Naples-November 11.

Table 3 includes 8 locations on the Atlantic. Fernandina Beach-October 20, Jacksonville-October 15, Daytona-October 23, Melbourne-October 31, Ft. Pierce-November 9, WPB-November 15, Ft. Lauderdale-September 14 (?), Miami-November 24.

Anomalies in Table 3, include but are not limited to, Tarpon Springs hot season ends 9 days later, notwithstanding the fact that it is substantially north of Tampa. Lisbon (Portugal) is listed in Table 3? Ft. Lauderdale’s end of hot season is listed as September 14? Could this inexplicable incorrect information have created the questionable conclusion?

[kinzyjr]

5 hours ago, bubba said:

Kinsey,

Thank you for an interesting article in the Lakeland Ledger, which cites a doctoral thesis as the main source. The thesis makes an interesting observation that does not seem to be supported by the data relied upon for the assessment.

The statement I question is

”End of hot season arrives earlier on the Atlantic than on the Gulf. This is difficult to explain because in fall the surface water temperatures in the Gulf drop more rapidly than the Atlantic at the same latitude.” Table 3 is the apparent basis for this conclusion.

I'm with you there, @bubba Generally speaking, the hot season is longer as you go south and east on the Florida peninsula. 

Table 3 includes 4 locations on the Gulf. Tarpon Springs (north of Tampa)-Nov. 4, Tampa-October 27, Ft. Myers-November 5 and Naples-November 11.

Table 3 includes 8 locations on the Atlantic. Fernandina Beach-October 20, Jacksonville-October 15, Daytona-October 23, Melbourne-October 31, Ft. Pierce-November 9, WPB-November 15, Ft. Lauderdale-September 14 (?), Miami-November 24.

Anomalies in Table 3, include but are not limited to, Tarpon Springs hot season ends 9 days later, notwithstanding the fact that it is substantially north of Tampa.

I can't say for sure, but it is also further away from water which means it would typically have larger temperature swings between the high and low.  That might be causing the high to clear the threshold by a degree or so on more days while having a cooler overall palm-growing climate.  Again, not a defense of this work, but just a possible explanation.  That still doesn't explain some of the other anomalies you may have noted.

Lisbon (Portugal) is listed in Table 3?

This is actually Lisbon, FL in Lake County: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisbon,_Florida

Ft. Lauderdale’s end of hot season is listed as September 14?

I imagine this should be November 14th based on the entries for WPB and Miami.  Even so, that means that the mean length of the hot season would be 201 days rather than the 318 listed.  As you pointed out, something seriously wrong with this data.

Could this inexplicable incorrect information have created the questionable conclusion?

Yes.

 

My main source of amusement from this article stemmed from the fact that they seemed to want it to be chilly enough for a jacket, whereas I'm much more of a shorts and tank top guy.

For those who are curious, below is a replica of table 3(with the suggested numbers for Ft. Lauderdale highlighted in yellow) with a link to the original source:

Link: https://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/specials/floridas-hot-season

[bubba]

Kinsey,

Thank you for your research!  As a Floridian, I am surprised that I have never heard of Lisbon, Florida. I know of many arcane spots like Jerome, Deep Lake, Two-Egg, etc. Lisbon is a new one for me.

My true issue is the underlying concept claimed by the thesis that the Gulf Coast’s end of hot season was later than the Atlantic. A review of the closest parallels in latitude would be WPB (November 15) and Ft. Myers (November 5), Ft. Lauderdale (November 14) and Naples (November 11). Tampa (October 27) and Daytona (October 23), which is substantially further north of Tampa. Tarpon Springs must have a station much closer to the water than Tampa, which is substantially north of Tampa, which makes one believe that it should be rejected as an anomaly.

The bottom-line is that the heat effect of the Gulf Stream and warmer Atlantic in the comparisons of similar latitudes make the thesis of the paper questionable. The latitude of Naples (November 11) is closer to Miami (November 24). Let me know your thoughts!

[kinzyjr]

On 10/13/2021 at 8:53 PM, bubba said:

The bottom-line is that the heat effect of the Gulf Stream and warmer Atlantic in the comparisons of similar latitudes make the thesis of the paper questionable. The latitude of Naples (November 11) is closer to Miami (November 24). Let me know your thoughts!

I agree with your assessment.

[bubba]

Bottom-line- You cannot believe everything you read in the present day media or the Internet when the statistics supporting the doctoral thesis (used as the basis for the argument), which is not even a peer reviewed scientific assessment, do not support the conclusion. Simply stated, shotty hot garbage!

[kinzyjr]

18 minutes ago, bubba said:

Bottom-line- You cannot believe everything you read in the present day media or the Internet when the statistics supporting the doctoral thesis (used as the basis for the argument), which is not even a peer reviewed scientific assessment, do not support the conclusion. Simply stated, shotty hot garbage!

Nothing wrong with a skeptical mind

[bubba]

But it is a sad state of affairs when media, internet and “The Florida Climate Center” allows a non-peer reviewed “doctoral thesis” to form the basis for an obviously flawed statement. 

[Matthew92]

On 10/3/2021 at 9:34 AM, chinandega81 said:

Not that this would mean anything, but what is this winter supposed to be like in Florida? I am sooo ready for a nice, mild Florida winter with no more porlonged cold spells. The occasional fronts are fine, but when we have the parade of fronts that are relentless, it sets everything back. On top of that as we saw last winter, we had a very cool and dry Spring and that turned into a mild{ish and dry summer and now continuation into Fall. I hope this winter stays on the dry and warm to mild side.

Since the 2017-2018 winter, our last 3 have been quite mild actually. I think we're due for a colder one again. 

[RedRabbit]

Each year it seems like a lot of the same people call for a big freeze. Eventually you’ll be right, maybe this is the year. 

[JLM]

9 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

Each year it seems like a lot of the same people call for a big freeze. Eventually you’ll be right, maybe this is the year. 

My gut is telling me its gonna be bad this year, should i listen? My gut told me that last year's hurricane season was gonna be bad too. Anyways, with the current situation, it felt amazing today!
Forecast for tonight's low is 49F, and its 62F as of 8:27 PM CDT. Tomorrow the high is forecasted to be about 74F. Monday will be 75F, lows remain in the 50's through Monday night. Low 80's come back into the forecast with lows in the 60's, appears another cold front will come through at some point maybe at the end of next week or next weekend here. Its that time of year again 

[kinzyjr]

On 10/16/2021 at 9:15 PM, RedRabbit said:

Each year it seems like a lot of the same people call for a big freeze. Eventually you’ll be right, maybe this is the year. 

I kind of like when they are wrong. 

[JLM]

Cant have Fall cold fronts without severe weather...

[Matthew92]

On 10/22/2021 at 6:59 AM, JLM said:

Cant have Fall cold fronts without severe weather...

 

Well, now it looks like it will be happening. This Wed night our area is supposed to get severe storms with the cold front moving in.

[Matthew92]

November looks to be sporting a pattern that could make the Eastern US be on the chilly side. Possibly down to FL as well.  The blocking ridge/high pressure over Greenland helps shunt the air from farther north into the Central/Eastern US. Will have to watch if that setup holds into Dec and beyond. If so, it could give reason to be on the lookout for significant cold events in our neck of the woods.

Cool Halloween. It's been awhile since we haven't had a warm one.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 26, 2021 by Matthew92

[Matthew92]

[JLM]

Kinda have that feeling that i'll be wrapping up the foxtail sooner rather than later....

[chinandega81]

This is a double dip la niña la niña year. Last one was 2008-2009 winter. That year it was rather mild outside of two major cold snaps in South Florida. It sounds about right for us. Unfortunately, the intensity of the cold snaps and their duration is what causes damage. I am afraid we could see something similar, despite the winter being "warm" overall.

[Matthew92]

 

Nov 4-6 timeframe looks to be chilly. Possible frost for parts of North FL. GFS has been consistent in showing such temps for this period.

[kinzyjr]

Looks like we might have a brush with the 40s in some areas this weekend:

[JLM]

2 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Looks like we might have a brush with the 40s in some areas this weekend:

Currently forecasted to reach 42F for a low here Saturday night. Might end up in the 30's, plenty of time for things to change though. Gonna be wrapping up the foxtail this week just to see how everything will look, and have everything ready to go if its needed this weekend.

[Matthew92]

Winter is coming. Big cold signal by multiple models (not just the GFS) with consistent trends seen below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[kinzyjr]

42 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

Winter is coming. Big cold signal by multiple models (not just the GFS) with consistent trends seen below.

Looks like it will be a chilly month at a minimum.

[JLM]

2 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Winter is coming. Big cold signal by multiple models (not just the GFS) with consistent trends seen below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Time to drop a sheet on the foxtail

[JLM]

By the way, 48F at 11:31 PM CDT

[chinandega81]

Well the pattern for November is very winterlike. I hope this cool start to the season happens now, before the real cold air is manufactured, and hopefully we get that warmth and above avereage temperatures they are forecasting in December and January. I don't remember such a cool start to November...and a parade a strong fronts like this, so early. This does remind me of last year with a forecast for above average temps and then we had a chilly albeit technically slightly above average winter temperature regime. Fingers crossed...

[kinzyjr]

The air was very uniform along the I-4  and I-95 corridor from NE FL to Central FL tonight:

 

[Scott W]

48 right now here in Jville.  Really need to get myself a couple thermometers and place in different spots in the yard for temperature comparison.

[PalmatierMeg]

January avg temps in early November. The dreaded Polar Vortex is back. But I would rather get unseasonably cold temps out of the way now than in Jan. Nadir for winter temps here is Jan. 10.