Florida Winter 2021-2022

[JLM]

4 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Definitely much improved.  Calling for ~49F at the airport here.

They bumped it up to 38F here for Monday night. Looks like there might still be frost, but hopefully if this trend continues i might not even have to worry about that. Hopefully i wont have to cover the foxtail lol

[D. Morrowii]

I was seeing some forecasted lows down to 42 but as mentioned those temps have been bumped up quite a bit. On the other hand it looks like we’ll have a lot of nights in the 50s over the next several days…

[JLM]

15 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

I was seeing some forecasted lows down to 42 but as mentioned those temps have been bumped up quite a bit. On the other hand it looks like we’ll have a lot of nights in the 50s over the next several days…

Yeah, NWS bumoed up to 39F, so its possible we dont even reach the 30's here. This would be awesome, just as long as all the cold doesnt come down at once lol

[chinandega81]

As opposed to the sharper cold air intrusion, it seems like a winter pattern of dry and cool is setting up. No cold, just seasonal cool (for late Dec. and Jan).  No more 80s in the forecast for Miami in the extended outlook. I also have many nights in the 50s ahead. Sigh. At least the sun angle will start to increase in exactly one month and the days will start to get longer again.

[JLM]

Forecast for tomorrow night is being maintained at 38F, wind will likely be too strong for frost to form. Watching Friday night though, i see a little 37F has popped up for that night 

[bubba]

I just ran the Tropical Tidbit thermodynamic temperature forecast for the next 15 days for South Florida. Unfortunately, I see a number of days where we have highs in the 80s. It is good to hear longer range that we move into the dry cool. That is California weather!

[JLM]

NWS is forecasting 38F for tonight, 38F for tomorrow night. Then, on Friday night, 36F. I think it might be getting close to winter 

[bubba]

Wow! Florida is a long state.

[Scott W]

Yeah, possible 38 here in Jville as well tonight.  Will be moving some palm seedlings into the greenhouse when I get home.

[Matthew92]

37 here this morning. No frost that I saw though. And it sure felt like it! Friday night low has been hovering around 35-36, but since I'm in a cold spot, I think we're going to get to freezing. 

Edited November 23, 2021 by Matthew92

[bubba]

California weather south:

[D. Morrowii]

Not too bad out East last night/today temp wise but that wind was brutal. High leaflet casualties lol. Our night time temps are actually supposed to rise tonight from 56 to 59 then dip back down. Mid 70 highs and mid to low 50s lows through the weekend with that other cold front. 

[kinzyjr]

Currently 53F at Lakeland Linder (KLAL) and 55F locally.  Disregard the 57F - the weather station is mounted 20+ feet high. 

[Jimbean]

[JLM]

The forecast is starting to bust up this way. A few degees colder than what was expected at this time, Crestview is already at 36F. Crestview is a pretty sharp contrast to Destin right now, which is sitting right around 61F. Its 43F here at this time, it was supposed to be a degree higher, but there is colder air to my north thats filtering in (Chumuckla at 38F). Wouldnt be surprised to see a few spots at or below 32F by 5 am.

[JJPalmer]

Temps as of 6:20 am. Pine Island definitely wins the west-coast microclimate award for tonight’s chilly weather, Pinellas was also relatively warm. The East-coast was super remarkably interesting, some fleeting clouds and a NNE wind made the microclimates along the barrier islands from Jupiter northward far warmer than the interior and even Miami.  

[Jimbean]

@JJPalmer you stole my idea haha

 

Already 66F an hour later at my location.

[Jimbean]

Panhandle at 6:33AM local time

[kinzyjr]

My weather station concurs with the screenshot showing Lakeland.  This is the minimum recorded overnight.

[JLM]

Dropped to 37F this morning, couldnt tell if there was frost or not. Crestview hit 29F this morning.

[Matthew92]

Was worried as it got to 36 last night at 11:00pm! Ended up "only" getting to 34. Just a little frost. 

BTW, that 55 degrees posted above for Destin is an anomaly, as at that same time last night multiple weather stations out there were already in the high 40's at least.

[JLM]

Freeze Watch in effect for a small chunk of the state for Friday night.

[kinzyjr]

Below average, but nothing plant-killing in the forecast thus far:

[JLM]

5 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Below average, but nothing plant-killing in the forecast thus far:

Hopefully it stays that way! Some of the global models are trying to pick up on some sort of cold event in the beginning of December. We shall see what the trends are in future runs.

[JLM]

Freeze Watch now a Freeze Warning, the degree of cloud cover overnight will determine whether we reach freezing in this area. Hopefully not, but i guess we'll find out.

[kinzyjr]

We had a lot more rain than typical for November.  Since there is no rain chance above 10% for the remainder of the month, these marks will likely stand:

I checked my minimum this morning, and the 48.9F is still the minimum.  With some areas reporting 44F and the airport reporting 45F (Weather Underground) , I did expect that value to be overwritten, but not for now at least.  The low for the nearby SugarCane station thus far is 48F.

[D. Morrowii]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

We had a lot more rain than typical for November.  Since there is no rain chance above 10% for the remainder of the month, these marks will likely stand:

I checked my minimum this morning, and the 48.9F is still the minimum.  With some areas reporting 44F and the airport reporting 45F (Weather Underground) , I did expect that value to be overwritten, but not for now at least.  The low for the nearby SugarCane station thus far is 48F.

My rain gauge for November similarly reads 4.18 but the yearly total compared to last year is almost exactly the same at around 50”. It stayed warm over here all the way until 5-6am when it dipped to 51. Tonights dip is forecasted to start earlier snd last longer so a precautionary container rodeo is scheduled for this evening. :-)

[JLM]

Forgot to check in this morning. Hit 34F for a low, coldest of the season so far, no freeze yet though. There was frost, but it wasnt much mainly due to the fact that there was a light breeze from time to time overnight.

[Jimbean]

At roughly 6:45AM

 

[Matthew92]

19 hours ago, JLM said:

Forgot to check in this morning. Hit 34F for a low, coldest of the season so far, no freeze yet though. There was frost, but it wasnt much mainly due to the fact that there was a light breeze from time to time overnight.

Got to 31F at my location. Still, not much frost and bananas right next to weather station didn't suffer any apparent damage. Must have been very short duration. In the front yard (north facing), some elephant ears have slight burn, most likely from frost.

[Matthew92]

Latest rumblings from some meteorologists (and metrology hobbyists) on Twitter I follow. Btw, SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) and "Ural Blocking" are two phenomenon that can cause the Polar Vortex (circulating dome of frigid air at North Pole) to become displaced and go down in the mid-latitudes. From what I've been reading lately, there's debate on whether the Eastern US will revert to a warmer anomaly situation in December- or still get some more sustained cold air brought on by troughs of low pressure. 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by Matthew92

[JLM]

6 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Latest rumblings from some meteorologists (and metrology hobbyists) on Twitter I follow. Btw, SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) and "Ural Blocking" are two phenomenon that can cause the Polar Vortex (circulating dome of frigid air at North Pole) to become displaced and go down in the mid-latitudes. From what I've been reading lately, there's debate on whether the Eastern US will revert to a warmer anomaly situation in December- or still get some more sustained cold air brought on by troughs of low pressure. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, ive been seeing quite a bit about it as well, however at the moment temperature wise its not looking like it will affect this area much. This can change quickly, but models have been slowly backing off or pushing this idea of a big freeze further back in time for this area. Looks like there might still be a decent cold front come through next weekend or around that time. Plenty of time to watch things trend.

[CodyORB]

I got around to buying an inexpensive wireless thermometer to see if I have an ideal microclimate. It is in the shade of a Chamaerops near the south-facing side of the house. First frost of the year this morning w/ a low of 41 recorded, relatively consistent with nearby stations.  There was frost on nearby houses but not in my yard surprisingly. I brought up the Wunderground map and there is definitely a microclimate around the St. John's River, warmer than even the Beaches area (at least for today, with little wind coming in from the E).

[JLM]

Hit a low of 34F this morning. Not seeing any cold in the forecas really for the next several days. Highs warm up into the 70's after today with lows in the 40's, eventually warming into the 50's later this week.

[Matthew92]

Yep- from everything I'm seeing from my sources: it seems that there is a pattern switch coming that will have much of Dec mild at least. 

Even with some dips right around freezing at my location- all the annuals/perennials/tender tropicals are still green and some still flowering. I'm thankful though for the chilly temps we did have- as it has brought out some good fall color and cut down on the bugs! Those indeed are some factors of why I like this climate despite it being less palm friendly.

Chinese pistache 

Bradford pear

[Jimbean]

I saw some maples this morning with a little color to them here in east C. Florida

[JLM]

I have to agree with @Matthew92, beautiful colors this fall. The Red Maples are living up to their true name right now! Absolutely stunning. There are several Red Maples out in front of Target in Pace, and last week they had the most vibrant red color ive seen in a long time. The Japanese Red Maples are beginning to turn from their summertime purple-red color to a bright red as well.
My maple out in the backyard has already lost its leaves. Funny enough, the neighbor that lives behind me has a full grown maple in their backyard and its barely shown any color, and currently is more green than the oaks which are now dotted with yellow leaves.

[Jimbean]

The maples here are mostly green, but there is some yellow and a little bit of red.  I saw some a few days ago and the top branches were purple.  The laurel oaks have some yellow leaves, and the scrub hickories also have some yellow leaves on them. 

[kinzyjr]

St. Augustine had plenty of color this weekend:

[JLM]

Crape myrtles showing a nice red and purple color to close out the weekend. Looks like not only the Southeast is in for a really warm December, but pretty much the entire central and eastern CONUS. This big ridge is bound to dissipate at some point, gonna be watching for a decent cold snap in January. In other news, the forecast for this week is pretty comparable to one you would see in April, just in December....
Could get close or even hit 80F a couple times over the next week, while a few spots in southern FL could reach as high as the upper 80's. Watching the upcoming weekend for some severe weather potential across the MS Valley and Central Gulf Coast as well.
This is the 6-10 day temp outlook by the CPC:


This is the 8-14 day temp outlook by the CPC: