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Potential for Florida Freeze in February


IHB1979

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I wanted to continue Ray's, Potential for Florida Freeze in January thread. It's a new month but we still have several more weeks of possible cold weather. 

About ten days out but I saw this model for Thursday, February 11. Lots of cold air pouring down to the Gulf and Florida.

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That's impossible, the rat in Pennsylvania said it will be a early spring! :o

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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Watching closely but, i'll tell ya, models have been all over the place.. and only the AO takes a quick dip. Regardless of another, fleeting taste of winter, a period of sustained 70's looks to take hold after the 15th through the end of the month, and into March.. At least at the moment in the Long Range (Accuweather).. Noted several Tabebuia impetiginosa  starting to flower around town, as well as more Bombax beginning to show color.. sure signs that winter is on the wane. Aside from any gasps of cold we might see over the next couple weeks.. increasing warmth and increasing humidity could make for an interesting March-April ahead.

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There will be a big eastern trough mainly resulting from a strengthening west coast ridge.  The upstream temps are coolish and not extreme.  Another episode like last week appears most likely at this time.  Things could change but the map looks worse than what it actually represents. 

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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From the looks of it, I think South Texas will be okay.  We are predicted to have a cool week here, but northing abnormally cold, just a little below normal for this time of year.  We need rain again though.  It's starting to get dry again in much of Texas.  So much for the wet winter they predicted over here, but you guys in Florida sure got a LOT of rain this winter!  It looks like ALL of our El Nino rains went your direction.

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It's 8 days out so that trough could shift east or west.  No one is out of the woods until then.

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Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Here are the latest GFS numbers for select locations next Wednesday and Thursday mornings.  I fully expect a 5-10 degree drop in these numbers as the upcoming week approaches.  This will likely be the coldest episode of the winter.  For what it's worth, it appears spring kicks in the following week.

Daytona Beach - 41, 35

Fort Myers - 54, 47

Gainesville - 33, 32

Jacksonville - 30, 33

Key West - 61, 59 (what cold front) 

Melbourne - 43, 41

Miami - 55, 51

Naples - 55, 46

Orlando - 42, 39

Panama City - 32, 34

Pensacola - 32, 34

Sarasota - 50, 44

Tallahassee - 30, 35

Tampa - 49, 45

Vero Beach - 44, 42

West Palm Beach - 46, 47

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Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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1 hour ago, SubTropicRay said:

Here are the latest GFS numbers for select locations next Wednesday and Thursday mornings.  I fully expect a 5-10 degree drop in these numbers as the upcoming week approaches.  This will likely be the coldest episode of the winter.  For what it's worth, it appears spring kicks in the following week.

Daytona Beach - 41, 35

Fort Myers - 54, 47

Gainesville - 33, 32

Jacksonville - 30, 33

Key West - 61, 59 (what cold front) 

Melbourne - 43, 41

Miami - 55, 51

Naples - 55, 46

Orlando - 42, 39

Panama City - 32, 34

Pensacola - 32, 34

Sarasota - 50, 44

Tallahassee - 30, 35

Tampa - 49, 45

Vero Beach - 44, 42

West Palm Beach - 46, 47

Why do you think it will go down 5-10 degrees from the current forecast?

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Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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I hope I'm wrong but it always drops as the days approaches.  The model is struggling with how cold the air mass is this far in advance. For my garden, I expect a high of 53F next Wednesday with a low of 32-35F that night.  That's a far cry from the forecasted 45F which is really a joke. It's a yearly occurrence that hasn't happened this year yet.  It's time has come. :angry:

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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6 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

Why do you think it will go down 5-10 degrees from the current forecast?

If those temps hold it will not be the coldest of the winter. Ive already hit 34F twice, but I am watching this cold snap like a hawk. I agree with Ray, watch it. Models are struggling with the southward push of cold air right now. I hope it holds 35F and above for me. Spring...please get here! :o

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Replay from Feb. 2015. The last really cold front dropped my low to 37F. Then it was spring. I'd had an 11a winter until that plunge to 10b. So far I've had an 11a winter. Still I won't complain. Past winters were 10a except for 2010, which dipped to 9b several times. Still, I'd love to keep my 11a intact.

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Agree, not letting down my guard.  12z GFS run has the coldest air hovering just north of Ocala Tue-Thurs. Accuweather has us in the mid 40s both mornings atm. Also hoping future updates to the forecasts don't drop us any lower.. Already had some minor burn to a couple things from the last cold spell. Regardless, my just- arrived Portlandia grandiflora will stay inside until at least next Friday or Saturday. 'Couple other things might hang out next to it for a night or two.

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1 hour ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Replay from Feb. 2015. The last really cold front dropped my low to 37F. Then it was spring. I'd had an 11a winter until that plunge to 10b. So far I've had an 11a winter. Still I won't complain. Past winters were 10a except for 2010, which dipped to 9b several times. Still, I'd love to keep my 11a intact.

I was thinking the same thing. It was February 23 we had the last shot of cold air last year. I got down to 37 I think. After that it was spring. 

We had 83 here today and I don't think we see the 70s until a week from this coming Saturday. 

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2 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Replay from Feb. 2015. The last really cold front dropped my low to 37F. Then it was spring. I'd had an 11a winter until that plunge to 10b. So far I've had an 11a winter. Still I won't complain. Past winters were 10a except for 2010, which dipped to 9b several times. Still, I'd love to keep my 11a intact.

I am with you Meg, I was hoping we would make it through February without any cold like last year. The plants are looking a bit ragged because of the winds of a week or so ago, plus the cold winds we had. 

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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34 here tonight, sudden 2 degree drop off of the forecast.   Supposed to hit 33in Pensacola, FL and 34 in Tallahassee, FL

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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6 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

I hope I'm wrong but it always drops as the days approaches.  The model is struggling with how cold the air mass is this far in advance. For my garden, I expect a high of 53F next Wednesday with a low of 32-35F that night.  That's a far cry from the forecasted 45F which is really a joke. It's a yearly occurrence that hasn't happened this year yet.  It's time has come. :angry:

Hopefully it stays out of the 30s entirely, but we'll see. I'm optimistic. :) 

3 hours ago, gsytch said:

If those temps hold it will not be the coldest of the winter. Ive already hit 34F twice, but I am watching this cold snap like a hawk. I agree with Ray, watch it. Models are struggling with the southward push of cold air right now. I hope it holds 35F and above for me. Spring...please get here! :o

I'm kind of surprised it gets colder there than here. How far are you from the water?

Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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13 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

Here are the latest GFS numbers for select locations next Wednesday and Thursday mornings.  I fully expect a 5-10 degree drop in these numbers as the upcoming week approaches.  This will likely be the coldest episode of the winter.  For what it's worth, it appears spring kicks in the following week.

Daytona Beach - 41, 35

Fort Myers - 54, 47

Gainesville - 33, 32

Jacksonville - 30, 33

Key West - 61, 59 (what cold front) 

Melbourne - 43, 41

Miami - 55, 51

Naples - 55, 46

Orlando - 42, 39

Panama City - 32, 34

Pensacola - 32, 34

Sarasota - 50, 44

Tallahassee - 30, 35

Tampa - 49, 45

Vero Beach - 44, 42

West Palm Beach - 46, 47

Ray,

That's hilarious, your comment about Key West. 

John

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41.3F at my place at 11:30pm.  I figured the morning low tomorrow morning wouldn't be any lower than 43F or 44F for me, but it's already below that before midnight.  The local weathermen were predicting a low at the airport between 38F and 40F, which should have meant I would have a low tomorrow morning of no lower than about 42F.  This front that came through had VERY dry air and the dew point at the airport earlier was 20F!  I hope I can escape another frost.  Last weeks frost wasn't good for my newly planted Coconut Palms, but fortunately it was light, and we have had some mild days since then with a record high last Sunday.

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Update from this morning's GFS.  I removed Key West out of respect :P  Still no concerns but it's so so early.  Of note, the coldest morning is now forecasted to be Wednesday.  That's proof the models are still wrestling with the data.  In any case, take all of this with a grain of salt.  According to NWS records, last year's coldest night (for most) was Friday morning February 20th

Daytona Beach – 34, 44

Fort Myers – 47, 50

Gainesville – 31, 39

Jacksonville – 28, 38

Melbourne – 39, 45

Miami – 54, 54

Naples – 49, 50

Orlando – 36, 43

Panama City – 36, 46

Pensacola – 33, 44

Sarasota – 47, 49

Tallahassee – 28, 41

Tampa – 43, 50

Vero Beach – 40, 44

West Palm Beach - 46, 49

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Another cool morning in Houston. Temps generally in the upper 30s around town with near freezing in the burbs. There is a bit of frost on the roofs in my neighborhood. I don't see any freeze threat looking out 10 days on WU. The low for this winter has been thus far 34. Looking at the last 25 years instead of the seasons, 34 has been the highest low in two of those years.

1991 - 34

2005 - 34

Still have to make it thru the fall of 2016 to have another freeze free year.

Ed in Houston

 

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I saw some pretty cold temps all around Houston this morning, lots of 29-32's all over the place.  Per my weather station the lowest temp of the year has been 28 here south of Arlington, with only our tenth low of sub 32 recorded yesterday for the entire winter.

BEST. WINTER. EVER.

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2 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

Update from this morning's GFS.  I removed Key West out of respect :P  Still no concerns but it's so so early.  Of note, the coldest morning is now forecasted to be Wednesday.  That's proof the models are still wrestling with the data.  In any case, take all of this with a grain of salt.  According to NWS records, last year's coldest night (for most) was Friday morning February 20th

Daytona Beach – 34, 44

Fort Myers – 47, 50

Gainesville – 31, 39

Jacksonville – 28, 38

Melbourne – 39, 45

Miami – 54, 54

Naples – 49, 50

Orlando – 36, 43

Panama City – 36, 46

Pensacola – 33, 44

Sarasota – 47, 49

Tallahassee – 28, 41

Tampa – 43, 50

Vero Beach – 40, 44

West Palm Beach - 46, 49

Wow!  Panama City warmer than Orlando?  Is that normal?  And Jacksonville as cold first night and colder second night than Tallahassee?

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2 hours ago, Ed in Houston said:

Another cool morning in Houston. Temps generally in the upper 30s around town with near freezing in the burbs. There is a bit of frost on the roofs in my neighborhood. I don't see any freeze threat looking out 10 days on WU. The low for this winter has been thus far 34. Looking at the last 25 years instead of the seasons, 34 has been the highest low in two of those years.

1991 - 34

2005 - 34

Still have to make it thru the fall of 2016 to have another freeze free year.

Ed in Houston

 

Ed,

What part of Houston are you in again?  The airport (Intercontinental) should get down into the low 20'sF at least once or twice each winter, at least when I lived near Houston that was the case, and with Conroe always the cold pocket, except on the south side of the lake.  Conroe, often is significantly colder in the morning than College Station an hour to the Northwest.  I just can't imagine that Houston has been milder than Corpus Christi this winter, since we are so much further south and so much closer to the Gulf than Houston is, with Corpus Christi Bay to our north.

John

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1 hour ago, TexasColdHardyPalms said:

I saw some pretty cold temps all around Houston this morning, lots of 29-32's all over the place.  Per my weather station the lowest temp of the year has been 28 here south of Arlington, with only our tenth low of sub 32 recorded yesterday for the entire winter.

BEST. WINTER. EVER.

A very mild winter down here in Corpus Christi and in the Rio Grande Valley, but I just find it shocking that Houston has had a milder winter than us way down here and closer to the Gulf than Houston.  The airport here has been down to 32F on one morning, and it is about 22 miles inland from the Gulf, whereas the main airport in Houston (Intercontinental) is about 55 or 60 miles inland from the Gulf and so much further north.  Furthermore, we have Corpus Christi Bay and Nueces Bay on the immediate north side of Corpus, which buffers us with the water effect at night in the winter.

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30 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Wow!  Panama City warmer than Orlando?  Is that normal?  And Jacksonville as cold first night and colder second night than Tallahassee?

That does happen often as they are so far west they will be on the "warmer" side of the high pressure area. At least in Panama City,

Lived in Cape Coral, Miami, Orlando and St. Petersburg Florida.

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20 minutes ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Ed,

What part of Houston are you in again?  The airport (Intercontinental) should get down into the low 20'sF at least once or twice each winter, at least when I lived near Houston that was the case, and with Conroe always the cold pocket, except on the south side of the lake.  Conroe, often is significantly colder in the morning than College Station an hour to the Northwest.  I just can't imagine that Houston has been milder than Corpus Christi this winter, since we are so much further south and so much closer to the Gulf than Houston is, with Corpus Christi Bay to our north.

John

If you look at the averages Corpus Christi has a milder climate than Houston. That being said Houston has a metro population of 6.4 million (2010) and on nights of radiational  cooling is several degrees warmer than the surrounding area.The warmest area looks to be near downtown. I live in S.E. Houston about 20 miles S.E. from downtown and about 4-5 mile west of Galveston Bay. As one moves out from downtown it gets cooler except when moving S.E. and the influence of the Bay has an effect. Several times this winter it has been freezing or below in the burbs while being 5 degrees or so warmer in the city. My temps are very close to those recorded at Hobby airport that is about 10 miles to my N.W. toward the city. During advective cold spells Houston would not benefit much from it's heat island.

    STATION:   HOUSTON/HOBBY AIRPORT
    MONTH:     JANUARY
    YEAR:      2016
    LATITUDE:   29 38 N
    LONGITUDE:  95 17 W


DY MAX MIN AVG DEP 
================================================================================

 1  51  46  49  -5  
 2  52  46  49  -5  
 3  61  44  53  -1  
 4  62  39  51  -3  
 5  57  39  48  -6  
 6  63  47  55   1  
 7  70  54  62   8   
 8  69  50  60   6   
 9  64  44  54   0  
10  53  39  46  -8  
11  53  36  45  -9  
12  64  38  51  -3  
13  65  39  52  -2  
14  64  49  57   3   
15  74  49  62   8   
16  57  46  52  -2  
17  58  40  49  -5  
18  62  38  50  -4  
19  70  44  57   3  
20  66  50  58   4  
21  74  45  60   6  
22  54  41  48  -6  
23  57  35  46  -8  
24  69  38  54   0  
27  58  44  51  -3  
28  66  34  50  -5  
29  74  41  58   3   
30  76  48  62   7  
31  78  63  71  16  

================================================================================
AV 63.8 44.2                         
                                
================================================================================

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 54.0   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   2.51   
DPTR FM NORMAL:  -0.1   DPTR FM NORMAL:   -1.36    
HIGHEST:    78 ON 31    
LOWEST:     34 ON 28                              
                        

Ed in Houston

 

 

 

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As we all know latitude is not always the deciding factor on how cold an area will get, prime example here in the bay area our all time record low is 18f at 37.67 °N. And San Francisco has an all-time low of 23f Topography plays a huge roll.

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3 hours ago, Palmaceae said:

That does happen often as they are so far west they will be on the "warmer" side of the high pressure area. At least in Panama City,

Randy,

Here in Texas, a lot of times in the winter areas further west and north will be warmer in the daytime than areas to east and south, but only at the end of a cold event, as westerly or southwesterly warmer winds start pushing the cold to the east out of Texas, but the actual low temps of the cold event are always colder to the west and north of any given area of South Texas.  I just found that really interesting in Florida since Orlando is so much further south down the peninsula, has lots of lakes around it to increase the microclimate effect, and has the urban heat island effect too, whereas the bay and Gulf are to the south and west of Panama City, negating any water effect for them, and the colder chilly what I call "Hill Country of Florida"- the coldest part of Florida is to the immediate north of there.

John

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3 hours ago, Ed in Houston said:

If you look at the averages Corpus Christi has a milder climate than Houston. That being said Houston has a metro population of 6.4 million (2010) and on nights of radiational  cooling is several degrees warmer than the surrounding area.The warmest area looks to be near downtown. I live in S.E. Houston about 20 miles S.E. from downtown and about 4-5 mile west of Galveston Bay. As one moves out from downtown it gets cooler except when moving S.E. and the influence of the Bay has an effect. Several times this winter it has been freezing or below in the burbs while being 5 degrees or so warmer in the city. My temps are very close to those recorded at Hobby airport that is about 10 miles to my N.W. toward the city. During advective cold spells Houston would not benefit much from it's heat island.


    STATION:   HOUSTON/HOBBY AIRPORT
    MONTH:     JANUARY
    YEAR:      2016
    LATITUDE:   29 38 N
    LONGITUDE:  95 17 W


DY MAX MIN AVG DEP 
================================================================================

 1  51  46  49  -5  
 2  52  46  49  -5  
 3  61  44  53  -1  
 4  62  39  51  -3  
 5  57  39  48  -6  
 6  63  47  55   1  
 7  70  54  62   8   
 8  69  50  60   6   
 9  64  44  54   0  
10  53  39  46  -8  
11  53  36  45  -9  
12  64  38  51  -3  
13  65  39  52  -2  
14  64  49  57   3   
15  74  49  62   8   
16  57  46  52  -2  
17  58  40  49  -5  
18  62  38  50  -4  
19  70  44  57   3  
20  66  50  58   4  
21  74  45  60   6  
22  54  41  48  -6  
23  57  35  46  -8  
24  69  38  54   0  
27  58  44  51  -3  
28  66  34  50  -5  
29  74  41  58   3   
30  76  48  62   7  
31  78  63  71  16  

================================================================================
AV 63.8 44.2                         
                                
================================================================================

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 54.0   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   2.51   
DPTR FM NORMAL:  -0.1   DPTR FM NORMAL:   -1.36    
HIGHEST:    78 ON 31    
LOWEST:     34 ON 28                              
                        

Ed in Houston

 

 

 

Hey Ed,

I understand the water effect on the southeast side of Houston quite well.  I used to live in Galveston and then later in Texas City.  So you were referring to Hobby instead of Intercontinental.  The temp difference can be a good 4 to 6F warmer at Hobby easily on a cold winter morning, and I have actually seen the temp difference between Intercontinental and Galveston as much as 14F difference in which the big airport could be at 20F, and the island at around 34F on the same morning.  Galveston County is a solid 9B, whereas the island is a cool 10A, but too cool for Coconut Palms, though, as I have tried one there and others have too.  Moody Gardens had three of them, all Malayans, as I recall 2 Goldens and one Green about 8.5ft to about 10.5ft. tall growing on the side of the parking lot where you start walking up to the main part of the gardens kind of towards the water park in raised planter boxes back in the late '90's, and they only lasted 2 winters as I recall.  I actually donated a nice looking Maymex hybrid to them in 1993 before I moved away from that area  that I sprouted from a large nut I collected off of East Beach near the jetty back in April of 1990, when I was still a student at TAMUG.  I have been back to Moody several times since moving away from there.  I guess by now, the gardens have really recovered quite well from Ike.

John

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3 hours ago, NorCalKing said:

As we all know latitude is not always the deciding factor on how cold an area will get, prime example here in the bay area our all time record low is 18f at 37.67 °N. And San Francisco has an all-time low of 23f Topography plays a huge roll.

Ron,

In the case of Florida, though, latitude does have a major impact, just like it normally does here in Texas.  Orlando being colder than Panama City would be like L.A. being colder on a winter morning than Oakland.

John

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23 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Hopefully it stays out of the 30s entirely, but we'll see. I'm optimistic. :) 

I'm kind of surprised it gets colder there than here. How far are you from the water?

I am appx a mile from the Gulf. Sometimes what happens is the wind dies down during the night and the temp bottoms out. Ive also observed temps in Tampoa Bay on some of the coldest mornings and notice way too much descrepency in them. For instance, Ive seen posts on here with "it only hit 39F but there was frost on the rooftops". I position my thermometer in the widest open areas of my back yard which also slopes down - a cold pocket. It is ALWAYS 2-3F warmer in my front covered in pines, tall palms, and a huge Mango 40 feet tall.:wub:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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1 minute ago, Steve the palmreader said:

This thread is about Florida not Texas

Actually, the thread is about a "Potential freeze in Florida in February."  Since the entire Gulf Coast Houston to Jacksonville has pretty much the same weather moving west to east we typically discuss with each other.  The Florida Panhandle rarely freezes if we don't freeze the day before but the tip of the dips sometimes vary.   Most of us on the Northern Gulf Coast don't draw weather lines along political boundaries.  

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In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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7 hours ago, Mr. Coconut Palm said:

Ron,

In the case of Florida, though, latitude does have a major impact, just like it normally does here in Texas.  Orlando being colder than Panama City would be like L.A. being colder on a winter morning than Oakland.

John

In fairness, it rarely freezes anywhere in Oakland. The bayside towns on the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay are much more moderate than their inhabitants' planting preferences would indicate.

I lived in Albany (a small community directly across from the Golden Gate Bridge) at just a few feet above sea level, and I lived in Berkeley at the very top of Dwight (I'm guessing the elevation was somewhere between 500' and 1000'). In neither location did I witness any sign of ice or frost ever. In fact, I can only remember one night with temps below the 40s, and I had a a night-shift outdoor security job on the UC Berkeley campus at the time that forced me to work outdoors till 2am most shifts and from 11pm to 6am at least once a month. I felt the cold, and it was never even close to as cold as the Central Valley just 50 miles away. I had a small community garden plot in Albany, but I only planted a few vegetables. And the only thing I grew at the top of Dwight in Berkeley were impatiens (which, by the way, never died during any season). If Florida had the same microclimates (elevation-based, etc.) as CA, much of the peninsula's coast would include pockets of 11b. If only...

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2 hours ago, gsytch said:

I am appx a mile from the Gulf. Sometimes what happens is the wind dies down during the night and the temp bottoms out. Ive also observed temps in Tampoa Bay on some of the coldest mornings and notice way too much descrepency in them. For instance, Ive seen posts on here with "it only hit 39F but there was frost on the rooftops". I position my thermometer in the widest open areas of my back yard which also slopes down - a cold pocket. It is ALWAYS 2-3F warmer in my front covered in pines, tall palms, and a huge Mango 40 feet tall.:wub:

I'd say it is smart decision to measure at the coldest place in your yard just to be conservative. I just have mine out on the back porch for now until I get around to actually installing the sensor somewhere. lol

Westchase | 9b 10a  ◆  Nokomis | 10a  ◆  St. Petersburg | 10a 10b 

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1 hour ago, Yunder Wækraus said:

In fairness, it rarely freezes anywhere in Oakland. The bayside towns on the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay are much more moderate than their inhabitants' planting preferences would indicate.

I lived in Albany (a small community directly across from the Golden Gate Bridge) at just a few feet above sea level, and I lived in Berkeley at the very top of Dwight (I'm guessing the elevation was somewhere between 500' and 1000'). In neither location did I witness any sign of ice or frost ever. In fact, I can only remember one night with temps below the 40s, and I had a a night-shift outdoor security job on the UC Berkeley campus at the time that forced me to work outdoors till 2am most shifts and from 11pm to 6am at least once a month. I felt the cold, and it was never even close to as cold as the Central Valley just 50 miles away. I had a small community garden plot in Albany, but I only planted a few vegetables. And the only thing I grew at the top of Dwight in Berkeley were impatiens (which, by the way, never died during any season). If Florida had the same microclimates (elevation-based, etc.) as CA, much of the peninsula's coast would include pockets of 11b. If only...

Exactly. I've said it before, we really never get these arctic outbreaks, or snow for that matter. And btw, there are times that L.A. inland areas will get snow, and we here in the Bay Area are snow free. Latitude loses meaning quickly here. Snow even in the inland valleys is virtually unheard of. You see in California it only gets really cold on very clear nights, with no wind, which of course clear skies do not lend themselves to any kind of precipitation.

 

Here is an example of how rare snow is here in Livermore (where I live)...And we are in a much colder area, than SF proper. The historical data shows only once that measurable snow has ever been recorded.

http://www.elivermore.com/photos/Hist_lvr_weather.htm

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2 hours ago, _Keith said:

Actually, the thread is about a "Potential freeze in Florida in February."  Since the entire Gulf Coast Houston to Jacksonville has pretty much the same weather moving west to east we typically discuss with each other.  The Florida Panhandle rarely freezes if we don't freeze the day before but the tip of the dips sometimes vary.   Most of us on the Northern Gulf Coast don't draw weather lines along political boundaries.  

Thank you, Keith.  I enjoy our Gulf wide discussions that  those of us have on Palmtalk, because like you said, "The Florida Panhandle rarely freezes if we don't freeze the day before..."  Weather patterns move west to east, so what affects us on the western and northern Gulf, usually affects them sooner or later on the eastern Gulf.

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