Coldest spring on record for UK and most of Europe

[UK_Palms]

So I am not exaggerating when I say that this spring has been the coldest on record and the absolute worst that I have ever endured. It has been absolutely dreadful here, even by UK standards. 

The whole of the UK and most of Europe has been affected by unseasonably low temperatures for about 6-7 weeks now, since early April. The whole of 2021 has been pretty bad for here and the rest of Europe with below average temperatures and snow/freeze events in both January and February. Although March was okay and marginally above average, temperature-wise, both April and May have turned out to be the coldest spring months on record for the UK and most of Europe. I have spoke to people in their 80's who say that this spring is the worst they have EVER seen.

April was categorically the coldest April on record ever, given that multiple records have been broken in England, Scotland, Wales and wider UK. 

 

 

I have never, ever seen snow in April before this year. This is what my Queens looked like when I awoke one morning in mid-April this year... just unbelievable... in April...

 

Here is the temperature anomalies across Europe for April...

 

Apart from the Iberian peninsula (Spain & Portugal) and the far northeast Baltic corners of the continent, the whole of Europe has been affected this spring...

 

 

You can see the massive blue blob over Europe...

 

 

April was also a very, very dry month with record breaking sunshine levels, hence all the overnight frosts under clear skies. It was just dry, sunny and cold...

 

While most of Europe has shivered through its coldest spring on record, the Middle East and north Africa has been experiencing the exact opposite with record high temperatures. Consequently the Mediterranean islands in the southeast of Europe, closest to the Middle East and north Africa, have experienced record breaking temperatures. Crete in the far south of Europe saw a low of 30C overnight in April...

 

 

When you look at April alone, it doesn't seem too bad given that we are outside of winter, meaning no extreme lows, and April is just one month. However the cold snap is continuing well into May as well now with temperatures consistently running about 3C below average across Europe for about 6-7 weeks now.

Here you can see the temperature anomaly for May so far in the UK...

 

It was also the coldest May Bank Holiday on record for the UK...

 

 

Scotland even had snow, IN MAY!!!

 

 

There have even been multiple tornadoes this month as well...

 

 

While April was the driest on record, as well as the coldest, May is currently on course to be both the wettest and coldest. We have replaced the sunshine and cool weather of April, with the rain and cool weather of May. We have had constant drizzle, thunder and spells of heavy rain and wind over the past 10 days. It was absolutely vile out today. A mild 14C but just wet and miserable. Shite considering we are 2 weeks outside of summer.

Monday's figures were absolutely abysmal for mid May...

 

 

This is the first time on record that we have not gone over 20C during the first two weeks of May. In fact I haven't gone above 20C since the last day of March, when it reached 27C here. As it stands right now, March 30th has been my hottest day this year, which is a testament to how crap this spring has really been.

On top of that it appears another storm is arriving later this week as well. The last thing we need is more rain and wind. We need some frickin heat!!!

 

 

The temperatures look absolutely appalling for London this week, in mid-May! Highs of 14C / 57F from Thursday to Monday with another storm in between. However there are signs that it will bet warming up next week with temperatures trending closer to normal, but still no proper warmth at all. I have never seen anything like this in May. It sums up a crap spring in general and a crap 2021, weather-wise!

 

What is even more unbelievable is that parts of Russia and Siberia are running as much as 25C (50F) above average for the time of year!

 

I have to give spring 2021 a rating of 1 out of 10, it has genuinely been that bad! I'm praying for a record breaking hot summer. 

[Tyrone]

It's almost like the cool air over the Arctic has replaced the normal air over the UK and the hotter air over the Mediterranean has gone up to the Arctic where it can just melt every last bit of ice pack left. That's gonna mess the climate up long term now. 

[Teegurr]

15 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

So I am not exaggerating when I say that this spring has been the coldest on record and the absolute worst that I have ever endured. It has been absolutely dreadful here, even by UK standards. 

The whole of the UK and most of Europe has been affected by unseasonably low temperatures for about 6-7 weeks now, since early April. The whole of 2021 has been pretty bad for here and the rest of Europe with below average temperatures and snow/freeze events in both January and February. Although March was okay and marginally above average, temperature-wise, both April and May have turned out to be the coldest spring months on record for the UK and most of Europe. I have spoke to people in their 80's who say that this spring is the worst they have EVER seen.

April was categorically the coldest April on record ever, given that multiple records have been broken in England, Scotland, Wales and wider UK. 

 

 

I have never, ever seen snow in April before this year. This is what my Queens looked like when I awoke one morning in mid-April this year... just unbelievable... in April...

 

Here is the temperature anomalies across Europe for April...

 

Apart from the Iberian peninsula (Spain & Portugal) and the far northeast Baltic corners of the continent, the whole of Europe has been affected this spring...

 

 

You can see the massive blue blob over Europe...

 

 

April was also a very, very dry month with record breaking sunshine levels, hence all the overnight frosts under clear skies. It was just dry, sunny and cold...

 

While most of Europe has shivered through its coldest spring on record, the Middle East and north Africa has been experiencing the exact opposite with record high temperatures. Consequently the Mediterranean islands in the southeast of Europe, closest to the Middle East and north Africa, have experienced record breaking temperatures. Crete in the far south of Europe saw a low of 30C overnight in April...

 

 

When you look at April alone, it doesn't seem too bad given that we are outside of winter, meaning no extreme lows, and April is just one month. However the cold snap is continuing well into May as well now with temperatures consistently running about 3C below average across Europe for about 6-7 weeks now.

Here you can see the temperature anomaly for May so far in the UK...

 

It was also the coldest May Bank Holiday on record for the UK...

 

 

Scotland even had snow, IN MAY!!!

 

 

There have even been multiple tornadoes this month as well...

 

 

While April was the driest on record, as well as the coldest, May is currently on course to be both the wettest and coldest. We have replaced the sunshine and cool weather of April, with the rain and cool weather of May. We have had constant drizzle, thunder and spells of heavy rain and wind over the past 10 days. It was absolutely vile out today. A mild 14C but just wet and miserable. Shite considering we are 2 weeks outside of summer.

Monday's figures were absolutely abysmal for mid May...

 

 

This is the first time on record that we have not gone over 20C during the first two weeks of May. In fact I haven't gone above 20C since the last day of March, when it reached 27C here. As it stands right now, March 30th has been my hottest day this year, which is a testament to how crap this spring has really been.

On top of that it appears another storm is arriving later this week as well. The last thing we need is more rain and wind. We need some frickin heat!!!

 

 

The temperatures look absolutely appalling for London this week, in mid-May! Highs of 14C / 57F from Thursday to Monday with another storm in between. However there are signs that it will bet warming up next week with temperatures trending closer to normal, but still no proper warmth at all. I have never seen anything like this in May. It sums up a crap spring in general and a crap 2021, weather-wise!

 

What is even more unbelievable is that parts of Russia and Siberia are running as much as 25C (50F) above average for the time of year!

 

I have to give spring 2021 a rating of 1 out of 10, it has genuinely been that bad! I'm praying for a record breaking hot summer. 

Wow, sorry for you guys. It's like Iceland in England! Hope you get a hot hot summer! (No heatstroke deaths, please). Hope your palms are ok, I wonder if Trachys like it like this more than what your usual weather is like around now? I know the Queens must hate it.

Meanwhile here we've had monotonous weather this past two weeks after a pretty typical spring. 30c highs and 20c for lows. We've only had one day this year reach 32c, which is a little weird, but not too out of the ordinary. 

Unrelated, but I still don't understand why you have your climate as Warm-summer Mediterranean, when it is clearly Oceanic.

Edited May 18, 2021 by Teegurr

[sipalms]

37 minutes ago, Teegurr said:

Unrelated, but I still don't understand why you have your climate as Warm-summer Mediterranean, when it is clearly Oceanic.

Careful.

[Teegurr]

1 hour ago, sipalms said:

Careful.

What do you mean? Is he not oceanic?

Sorry, UKpalms, for being so blunt.

Edited May 18, 2021 by Teegurr

[UK_Palms]

2 hours ago, Teegurr said:

Wow, sorry for you guys. It's like Iceland in England! Hope you get a hot hot summer! (No heatstroke deaths, please). Hope your palms are ok, I wonder if Trachys like it like this more than what your usual weather is like around now? I know the Queens must hate it.

Meanwhile here we've had monotonous weather this past two weeks after a pretty typical spring. 30c highs and 20c for lows. We've only had one day this year reach 32c, which is a little weird, but not too out of the ordinary. 

Unrelated, but I still don't understand why you have your climate as Warm-summer Mediterranean, when it is clearly Oceanic.

 

Well, we're certainly not quite Iceland cold. The current temperatures in their capital, Reykjavik, are what you would expect to see in London in January. Highs of 8C and lows of 3C. However Iceland is also going through one of their coldest springs on record too. It appears the cold isn't just confined to the European continent, so to speak. It is affecting quite a large area and about 80-90% of Europe in total. Parts of Norway, the worst affected place, have been running 4-5C below average until just recently. The UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark etc have been running about 3.5C below average for nearly 2 months now. It's just the sheer duration of these below average temperatures that is insane. 

I don't know what has caused it? Perhaps it is due to sudden stratospheric warming, or cooling...? Tyrone makes a good assessment of what is happening, but as to the cause itself, it is hard to say. Something has definitely triggered this record breaking cold, although 2021 in general has been cold for most of Europe and even you guys had that big freeze in Texas as well. So there has clearly been a general trend towards colder than average temperatures. So much for 'global warming', right! I mean just look at the temperature difference between May 2020 and May 2021 for the UK. Last May we started the month with 25C highs and 15C lows and saw temperatures up to 29C by now. This May couldn't be further from that.

Also check out the April contrast compared to last year. The contrast for this May is just as much as April...

 

 

Regarding what I have my climate listed as... well I do not properly fall under the 'oceanic' classifications due to how dry the summers are here. The UK in general is obviously oceanic, as is my location here to a degree, but the summers here are too dry and FAR drier than they used to be. I get much more of my annual rainfall in autumn and winter nowadays. I also experience a seasonal lag here as well, which is common in Med climates. My coldest month is often February and warmest month is often August. The long-term rainfall stats for London are miles off nowadays as the patterns have changed completely. Maybe they need a new climate classification for 'dry-summer oceanic' or something...?

I am both warmer and drier than Victoria in BC, yet they are listed as csb (warm-summer Med). The same can be said about Vancouver as well, which is often listed as warm-summer Med. Yet if you visit London in July and southwestern coastal Canada in July, London will be warmer and usually drier. The subtropical ridge usually extends up from the Azores and the high pressure block suppresses summer rainfall. The cold sea also acts to suppress rainfall, similar to what you may see in northern California, but obviously not quite as pronounced. 

I tell you what though... if this summer is cool and wet, I swear I will change my climate to oceanic. I have written that on here now, so you can hold me to it. I suspect the subtropical high will set up north of the Azores in June though, suppressing rainfall right into September. August will probably see the hottest and driest weather. Last August, southeastern England had a week straight of 95F temps and barely a spot of rain all month. Irrespective of the current extended cold spell this spring, I expect this summer to still be warm and pretty dry in line with recent years. 

I suppose I could change my climate to 'dry-summer oceanic', although that isn't an actual climate type, hence why I have put it as csb to reflect the dry summers that are clearly not accounted for under the oceanic classification. I only average about 18 inches of rainfall per year here and London has seen as little as 12 inches of rain before. Again, not conductive with a true oceanic climate. It's on the dry side in general, but especially in summer. Enough to classify it as true csb though... probably not.

[UK_Palms]

16 hours ago, Tyrone said:

It's almost like the cool air over the Arctic has replaced the normal air over the UK and the hotter air over the Mediterranean has gone up to the Arctic where it can just melt every last bit of ice pack left. That's gonna mess the climate up long term now. 

It's truly bizarre, for most of Europe to be so cold during April and May, but for the Arctic and Siberia to be so warm at the same time. Quite concerning for the ice caps as you say. I don't know what the exact cause of this is though, whether it is due to sudden stratospheric warming, or cooling? Or a collapse in the vortex, as they say...?

I believe temperatures have reached 32C today inside the arctic circle up at 66N in northwestern Russia. They may reach 35C on Wednesday and Thursday. That is truly unprecedented for the time of year. It's not totally out of the equation for arctic heat waves in say June or July, they happen every couple of years nowadays, but for those kind of temperatures to occur in mid-May is truly absurd. It just goes to show how crazy this spring has been across Europe. And it isn't over yet. More cold records are going to be broken in Europe and more heat records in the arctic this month.

 

The ENTIRE Arctic, in the east and west, appears to be well above average, temperature-wise...

 

 

No doubt these things tend to balance themselves out though, so this summer could be far warmer than average in Europe still, while the arctic ends up being a lot cooler than average. Although if this summer is crap as well here, this year will go down as the worst on record. I guess only time will tell. There's early indications of June being warmer than average here though, so we'll see. It can't be any worse than May.

I only reached 15C again here today and have had on and off rain all day. Some heavy. Still CRAP for the time of year. An 'unseasonal' spring storm arriving Thursday night too. Dreading that. We have already had one 'unseasonal' storm a few weeks back. The fact there is going to be two this spring sums up this season frankly...

 

 

[Teegurr]

25 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

 

Well, we're certainly not quite Iceland cold. The current temperatures in their capital, Reykjavik, are what you would expect to see in London in January. Highs of 8C and lows of 3C. However Iceland is also going through one of their coldest springs on record too. It appears the cold isn't just confined to the European continent, so to speak. It is affecting quite a large area and about 80-90% of Europe in total. Parts of Norway, the worst affected place, have been running 4-5C below average until just recently. The UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark etc have been running about 3.5C below average for nearly 2 months now. It's just the sheer duration of these below average temperatures that is insane. 

I don't know what has caused it? Perhaps it is due to sudden stratospheric warming, or cooling...? Tyrone makes a good assessment of what is happening, but as to the cause itself, it is hard to say. Something has definitely triggered this record breaking cold, although 2021 in general has been cold for most of Europe and even you guys had that big freeze in Texas as well. So there has clearly been a general trend towards colder than average temperatures. So much for 'global warming', right! I mean just look at the temperature difference between May 2020 and May 2021 for the UK. Last May we started the month with 25C highs and 15C lows and saw temperatures up to 29C by now. This May couldn't be further from that.

Also check out the April contrast compared to last year. The contrast for this May is just as much as April...

 

 

Regarding what I have my climate listed as... well I do not properly fall under the 'oceanic' classifications due to how dry the summers are here. The UK in general is obviously oceanic, as is my location here to a degree, but the summers here are too dry and FAR drier than they used to be. I get much more of my annual rainfall in autumn and winter nowadays. I also experience a seasonal lag here as well, which is common in Med climates. My coldest month is often February and warmest month is often August. The long-term rainfall stats for London are miles off nowadays as the patterns have changed completely. Maybe they need a new climate classification for 'dry-summer oceanic' or something...?

I am both warmer and drier than Victoria in BC, yet they are listed as csb (warm-summer Med). The same can be said about Vancouver as well, which is often listed as warm-summer Med. Yet if you visit London in July and southwestern coastal Canada in July, London will be warmer and usually drier. The subtropical ridge usually extends up from the Azores and the high pressure block suppresses summer rainfall. The cold sea also acts to suppress rainfall, similar to what you may see in northern California, but obviously not quite as pronounced. 

I tell you what though... if this summer is cool and wet, I swear I will change my climate to oceanic. I have written that on here now, so you can hold me to it. I suspect the subtropical high will set up north of the Azores in June though, suppressing rainfall right into September. August will probably see the hottest and driest weather. Last August, southeastern England had a week straight of 95F temps and barely a spot of rain all month. Irrespective of the current extended cold spell this spring, I expect this summer to still be warm and pretty dry in line with recent years. 

I suppose I could change my climate to 'dry-summer oceanic', although that isn't an actual climate type, hence why I have put it as csb to reflect the dry summers that are clearly not accounted for under the oceanic classification. I only average about 18 inches of rainfall per year here and London has seen as little as 12 inches of rain before. Again, not conductive with a true oceanic climate. It's on the dry side in general, but especially in summer. Enough to classify it as true csb though... probably not.

Yes, yes, not as cold as Iceland, but you were getting there! Anyway, it is quite the long-term weather pattern for sure, something to remember for decades to come, but, as we have seen a drastic warming in much of the world and indeed including Europe in years prior, I assume these warm years will return and will occur at a higher intensity in the future.

For the climate, the thing with Guildford (Surrey, I hope I am getting your location right) is that there is not a marked enough difference in rainfall during summer compared to winter. Look at this chart. It is from 1981-2010, so it may be out of date (you noted that recently your rainfall has decreased in the summer).

Also, as you can see, the summer rainfall is comparable to rainfall experienced in February, your coldest month, which is hardly summer.

Indeed, Victoria BC is wetter (at least at the international airport, but drier in Gonzales, a neighborhood in Victoria), but there is a much starker and uniform difference in summer rainfall vs. winter rainfall. In summer, Victoria gets six times less rain than in the winter, deeming it worthy of a Warm-summer Mediterranean climate. You have said Guildford does not totally meet the requirements for a Oceanic or Warm-summer Mediterranean climate. However, I can say it does in fact meet the requirements for a Oceanic climate. A. It has at least 20 inches of rain annually, according to the graph. You said, however, that Guildford receives an average of 18 inches of rain per year. Do you know where this information can be found? Have you recorded it yourself? B. The coldest month has an average above 0C/32F and the warmest month's average does not exceed 22C/72F.

[sipalms]

2 hours ago, Teegurr said:

What do you mean? Is he not oceanic?

Sorry, UKpalms, for being so blunt.

It's all good, Teegurr, and very interesting to see your analysis above. You just don't want to open Pandora's box when referencing this particular climate analysis which I'm sure you may soon find out.

[UK_Palms]

6 minutes ago, Teegurr said:

For the climate, the thing with Guildford (Surrey, I hope I am getting your location right) is that there is not a marked enough difference in rainfall during summer compared to winter. Look at this chart. It is from 1981-2010, so it may be out of date (you noted that recently your rainfall has decreased in the summer).

Yes, I am just outside of Guildford. It is about 3 miles northeast of me, so those stats are somewhat relevant, in the longer-term at least.

I can categorically say that the rainfall pattern has changed dramatically here in the 21st century, at least compared to the temperature. We get a hell of a lot of rain during the October - February period, but not much at all during the March - September period. This May has been a rare exception, but obviously this isn't a normal May, or a normal spring. Last May for instance, we didn't have a single drop of rainfall (0.0 inches). This May however could be one of the wettest in decades, although May typically averages 0.7 inches of rainfall here (my own stats). So the rainfall pattern has become somewhat erratic here and unreliable between March - September.  

June is statistically my driest month here and if I look at my stats from 2015-2020, I can see that it has been averaging 0.6 inches of rainfall. June 2018 didn't have a single drop of rainfall (0.0 inches). July is only marginally wetter with an average of 0.8 inches of rainfall and August has been averaging 0.9 inches. September only gets 1.3 inches of rain. So relatively speaking, my summers are pretty dry, these days at least. October on the other hand averages 4.1 inches of rainfall and December averages 3.9 inches of rainfall. So clearly there is a marked difference between the seasons. Autumn/fall and winter are WAY wetter than summer here with up to 5 x as much rainfall in December compared to June. Clearly the long-term stats do not reflect this, which indicates a massive shift in the rainfall pattern here. 

Who knows, maybe the rainfall pattern will realign itself in the not so distant future, or it will continue to become even more pronounced. As I said though, the rainfall pattern of recent years does not reflect the longer term statistics. Not even close. There is a massive contrast between spring/summer and autumn/winter, but at the same time it is also erratic and unreliable, especially between March - September. All I can say is keep an eye on our summer weather here this year in the southeast of England. You will see what I mean about the lack of rain during summer. Unless this summer completely bucks the trend, which I doubt it will. 

[sipalms]

1 hour ago, UK_Palms said:

I tell you what though... if this summer is cool and wet, I swear I will change my climate to oceanic. I have written that on here now, so you can hold me to it.

I guess when one can change their official climate definition based on a particular feel of a particular year, it says it all really.

If my memory serves me right, I believe this time last year or per you changed your climate definition as well based on the fact you had some warmer weather for a while?

In any case, I do feel for you being stuck in a cold location/cycle, must be very frustrating.

 

 

 

[UK_Palms]

8 minutes ago, sipalms said:

It's all good, Teegurr, and very interesting to see your analysis above. You just don't want to open Pandora's box when referencing this particular climate analysis which I'm sure you may soon find out.

Nobody is opening Pandora's box. In fact I'm just going to go ahead and change my climate bio anyway so that we can get back to the topic, regarding the record cold spring across Europe. 

My June rainfall is a fraction of what I get in December these days, but the long-term stats do say otherwise. Southeast England is undoubtedly edging towards warm-summer Med these days, due to the declining summer rainfall and higher winter rainfall. This is fact. The Met Office were referencing this back in April. But I also agree that it is not enough to classify my location as a Csb climate. It is a dry-summer oceanic climate.

Do keep an eye on the rainfall totals for London this summer though. It will back up what I have been saying. The trend is there to see. 

[UK_Palms]

10 minutes ago, sipalms said:

I guess when one can change their official climate definition based on a particular feel of a particular year, it says it all really.

If my memory serves me right, I believe this time last year or per you changed your climate definition as well based on the fact you had some warmer weather for a while?

In any case, I do feel for you being stuck in a cold location/cycle, must be very frustrating.

Will you chill out. I have always maintained that my climate is a dry-summer oceanic one. However there is not a climate classification for that per se, which acknowledges a dry-summer in an oceanic climate, hence why I put it as Csb. Other oceanic climate regions also use Csb, such as southwestern Canada. The fact of the matter is that my precipitation is not spread out evenly throughout the year. I would know because I live here and record it. There is clearly massive spikes in precipitation in October - February with the summer period seeing a fraction of that nowadays. 

Also, if that forecast come to fruition, we will be on course for the coldest May on record too. That is certainly the worst run of mid-late May temperatures that I have ever seen. Summer better have something up its sleeve...

[sipalms]

28 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Will you chill out,

I'm perfectly chilled, although maybe not as chilled as you are at the moment there in the UK even though we're in the opposite hemisphere and heading into winter.

The shortest day is just over 5 weeks away (and your longest day). 

Some on here and other forums have ascertained that the climate here is Mediterranean In a previous discussion, you said yourself that the climate here in Christchurch is subtropical... based on the fact that a huge amount of zone 9-10a palms grow happily here and we have buckets more sunshine than the UK. However even if it just scraped into the classification with a bit of creativity and smoothing of figures, I couldn't embarrass myself or downplay actual Mediterranean climates by claiming so! 

Edited May 19, 2021 by sipalms

[sandgroper]

1 hour ago, sipalms said:

I'm perfectly chilled, although maybe not as chilled as you are at the moment 

 

Sorry but that's quite funny.

[UK_Palms]

You're going through an average spell of weather though, whereas we just happen to be going through our coldest spring on record with storms. Not just us, but Europe in general. This obviously isn't the norm here in terms of temperatures. This spring has been a freak cold one for us. Probably a 1 in 100 year event. So it's not really fair to make any comparisons right now.

My point is that summers here are far drier nowadays than the long-term stats suggest. Surrey, Kent, Sussex and London are dry-summer oceanic climates that are bordering on Csb, due to the decline, or absence, of rainfall during summer. Climate change has meant it has been trending that way for some time. Not necessarily warmer, but drier in summer and wetter in winter. I suspect it will revert to that again in the coming weeks. Obviously we will see in due course. 

This spot is 3-4 miles down the road from me last summer...

 

 

The weather will deteriorate further in the next few days, with a storm coming... but it looks like the end may be in sight as we move into June. This spring has been a total write-off, but it does look like it will be warmer and drier as we head into summer. Due to the seasonal lag effect, the real heat won't build up until July-August. Hopefully it last into September.

[sipalms]

Hello Ben,

Just interested to know, when you say coldest spring on record for the UK, did that come from the Met Office?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/wet-and-windy-end-to-the-week-but-signs-of-milder-weather-to-come

"May so far has been cooler and wetter than average. although still not at record levels for the month. The full review of May’s weather will be available at the end of the month. "

I understand April was the third coldest on record but unless May proves to be drastically lower than average then I think it's probably not as bad as you make out?

[JohnAndSancho]

Every time people start arguing about weather

 

 

[sipalms]

37 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Every time people start arguing about weather

 

Hey John, 

I noticed you only joined this forum in mid 2020.

If you feel like sitting back for the 'argument' of all arguments, check out the full thread below.

Particular attention made to page 6 where OP was found posting fake images of the UK and wild exaggerations on the side.

I don't even want to call this an argument as an argument is when both sides have contested facts... not one side making up facts for all and sundry

 

 

[UK_Palms]

1 hour ago, sipalms said:

Hello Ben,

Just interested to know, when you say coldest spring on record for the UK, did that come from the Met Office?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/wet-and-windy-end-to-the-week-but-signs-of-milder-weather-to-come

"May so far has been cooler and wetter than average. although still not at record levels for the month. The full review of May’s weather will be available at the end of the month. "

I understand April was the third coldest on record but unless May proves to be drastically lower than average then I think it's probably not as bad as you make out?

 

No, I think you'll find that it is probably even worse than I am making out. It is a clear record breaker.

APRIL 2021

- the lowest average minimum on record for England and the lowest average minimum since 1922 (99 years) for the UK as a whole.

- also set the record for the most frosts ever in the UK (22 on average) and I saw 19 down here in southern England. My average is 5 and my previous record was 13, so the previous record was smashed. Every night in April somewhere in the UK saw a frost, which is also another new record in itself. 

- also saw the coldest temperature in the UK since April 2013 with a low of -9.4C in the Scottish Highlands.

- I had my first ever April snowfall here in my lifetime. 

MAY 2021

- My coldest May night on record (1st May). 

- Coldest May Day Bank Holiday on record for the entire UK.

- Lowest average high temperature on record for May in England and Wales (as it stands).  

- Longest run of <20C temperatures in May in 40 years.

SPRING 2021

- Most spring frosts on record for Scotland

- Longest duration of spring frosts on record for UK

- Longest run of <20C temperatures in spring on record for England. 

- Lowest average high temperature on record for England (as it stands).

- Lowest average temperature on record for UK (as it stands).

There will be a whole bunch more records to come, looking at the forecast for the next few days at least. As the Met say, they will be waiting until spring is over before they release their seasonal records. The monthly records of April and May combined clearly show it as being close to, if not the coldest ever on record. To top this spring off we even have a cyclone type even about to hit on Thursday too!

 

 

Plus my 62 year old father says it is the coldest spring he has ever seen. My 85 year old grandfather says it is the coldest spring he has ever seen. My 87 year old neighbour says it is the coldest spring he has ever seen. So if it isn't the coldest spring in a century, it will be the coldest spring on record. I don't think we have ever seen a spring like it before, but I guess we will find out over the next 10 days. The sheer number of records that have already been broken speak volumes about the severity of this cold snap though.

I have also noticed that the foliage on the trees here is at least 2-3 weeks behind where it should be for the time of year. Quite a few trees are still looking pretty sparse and haven't even began to fill out yet. This time last year they were pretty much already completely filled out by now. So yet more evidence of how cold it has truly been this spring. The record number of April frosts and the May frosts have clearly set the trees back a few weeks compared to normal. Everything is going to be late, or delayed this season. The crops are nowhere near where they should be and I think this spring will also see record numbers of crop losses too. 

 

23 hours ago, sipalms said:

It's all good, Teegurr, and very interesting to see your analysis above. You just don't want to open Pandora's box when referencing this particular climate analysis which I'm sure you may soon find out.

I thought you said you didn't want to open Pandora's Box...? Your last comment to John is clearly an attempt to open the box! All I am doing is talking about the dreadful, record cold spring that we are having here in the UK and parts of Europe. It has been depressingly bad here in recent weeks and you're trying to kick me while down! Cheers mate. 

[JohnAndSancho]

2 hours ago, sipalms said:

Hey John, 

I noticed you only joined this forum in mid 2020.

If you feel like sitting back for the 'argument' of all arguments, check out the full thread below.

 

I'm here to learn how to not kill my plants, and see occasional dog pics. Maybe occasionally make a snarky joke here and there. *shrugs*

 

Carry on, good sirs. 

[UK_Palms]

Incredible heatwave in the arctic and Siberia and a brilliant piece by Meteorologist Scott Duncan...

 

While we have had consistently below average temperatures for 6-7 weeks now, it does appear that continental Europe is much colder than average even compared to the UK right now. Parts of central and eastern Europe are currently running 10C below normal. Iceland and Greenland too. Compared to the massive heat blob situated up near the arctic.

[UK_Palms]

Winds are already at 25mph here and the cyclone type event isn’t due to hit until tonight. I’m expecting wind speeds of 50mph and gusts up to 70mph here inland on Friday. Coastal regions may see gusts of up to 100mph. Truly unprecedented for late May here.

As well as the storm, we will also have a run of further record low daytime temperatures in the next few days. It makes it by far the worst spring EVER on record due to multiple reasons now. 

 

Those average wind speeds do not look good for tomorrow...

 

I can’t wait to see the back of spring now. It has been an absolute sh*t show. Never experienced anything like it. 

[UK_Palms]

This is an apocalyptic spring. It's worse than anything I could have possibly imagined. The wind is absolutely howling outside. The eye of the storm is almost sitting stationary over Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man now, allowing its winds to batter the UK. For some reason the SW of England and Wales is being most affected, with strong southerly's crashing into the south coast.

Winds of 80mph have been recorded already and palmy places such as Torquay, Weymouth, Bournemouth, Ventnor, Southsea etc are facing 60-70mph winds tonight and tomorrow. They may see 80-90mph gusts there. The Isle of Wight has already recorded 85mph gusts. We're talking the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane making landfall in coastal areas. This thing is definitely cyclonic in nature, looking at it on the maps.

Never in my life have I ever seen a storm like this in spring. In autumn or winter maybe, yes, but never in spring. This on top of what is already the coldest spring ever...

 

This explains the origins of the storm and how it has formed...

 

 

It will be interesting to see how the bananas hold out in this storm. The Musa Basjoo has already had its new leaf ripped quite badly by the 45mph gusts that I had here on Thursday evening. The two Abyssinian Bananas definitely seem more robust and stand up better against the wind. Hopefully they will be okay. I'm expecting 50mph winds at midday on Friday, which I think will totally strip the Musa Basjoo of all leaf coverage. It will have to start growing leaves from scratch again. 

 

Meanwhile the arctic heatwave continues to worsen too with close to 32C being recorded well inside the arctic circle on Thursday, during their spring!...

 

 

[sipalms]

@UK_Palms if it makes you feel any better, your weather and forecast is looking better than parts of CA at the moment...

 

[Ryland]

@UK_Palms can you do anything to protect your bananas?  Even a cardboard box around them will get soaked but should reduce wind damage!

I agree it's been a wretched spring.  For me it hasn't been frosty, but very chilly temperatures - we haven't even had one day in May here that equals the average high for May (17.5 for me).  This article summarises the state of things pretty well: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/21/uk-weather-may-on-track-to-be-wettest-on-record-with-more-rain-to-come.

There is some optimism there though: "Unsettled conditions will continue through the weekend, but there is a sign of drier conditions to come from Tuesday, with some indications of temperatures starting to climb towards more typical figures for the time of year."

It was a dreadful time for me to plant my Brahea right at the start of May The Washingtonia also is starting to look bad... the newest leaf has stalled (after it grew a very nice leaf in February-March), and is opening without pushing out, resulting in a sort of cramped concertina look.  Really hoping for even some normal weather to arrive soon!

[UK_Palms]

@Ryland I’m at work now so the bananas will just have to weather the worst of it on their own. The ensente’s will probably be okay, but the Musa Basjoo won’t have any leaves left after this. You can see my Washingtonia Filifera in the picture with the bananas, which is also starting to look a bit worse for wear. The spear is still strong, but it is barely growing right now!

I have recorded wind gusts of 57mph here this morning and it could get worse in the next hour, before it starts dying down again. Just abysmal conditions for the time of year! The Isle of Wight has officially seen 89mph winds as of 9am, but I’m pretty sure some places have seen 90mph+ in the past few hours since then. Probably record breaking wind speeds for May in these locations.

 

The south coast has certainly taken the brunt of this storm, wind-wise at least. The rain has been heaviest in the west of England and Wales though. It is still unseasonably wet across the entire UK though. It looks like you guys in Manchester may have some of the heaviest downpours in the UK this afternoon. Not ideal conditions for your Brahma and Washie...
 

 

We need some of that Arctic heat!!!! I cannot believe I am even saying that. That should never even be a thing. It looks like it has reached 33C inside the arctic circle this afternoon! 

[Chester B]

I have a question, since things appear to be drying out in the UK, are you seeing a shift in vegetation?

Generally the plants in the area are a good indicator of what's really happening long term, or at least I like to think so.  Around here we have been experiencing hotter and drier weather, the shift has been going on for a number of years, and you see the stress on mature trees - conifers mostly.  

[UK_Palms]

1 hour ago, Chester B said:

I have a question, since things appear to be drying out in the UK, are you seeing a shift in vegetation?

Generally the plants in the area are a good indicator of what's really happening long term, or at least I like to think so.  Around here we have been experiencing hotter and drier weather, the shift has been going on for a number of years, and you see the stress on mature trees - conifers mostly.  

I wouldn't really say that things are drying out here, like in terms of a decline in annual precipitation. The clear and obvious difference that I am noticing is that we are getting far less rainfall during summer and far more rainfall during winter. The period from March - September is definitely drier than it used to be and the period from October - February is definitely wetter. This May is the rare exception to that, but this spring in general is a one-off exception in itself. A one in 250 year spring probably. We may never see a spring quite like this one again. 

Last May, in 2020, I didn't see any rainfall whatsoever (0.0 inches), yet this May could go down as the wettest on record. So as well as a decline in summer rainfall and an increase in winter rainfall, we are also seeing more erratic and inconsistent rainfall patterns that can vary each year. I can also only speak for the southeast of England where I live. I'm not sure about the changes in rainfall patterns for other parts of the UK, or whether it is drier or wetter in other places. There is a definite trend towards drier summers and wetter winters in southeastern England though.

As far as changes to the vegetation, it is hard to say exactly. I haven't really noticed any obvious changes to the Flora here. It always looks dried out and stressed during summer nowadays, due to the native vegetation being unaccustomed to the drier and warmer summers, which now see frequent droughts. There is definitely an effect going on, but I don't think it is particularly noticeable. I will pay closer attention this summer, assuming it is very dry and warm again. I'm pretty sure this record cold and stormy spring will not continue into summer. The longer-term forecast is looking much better now with above average temperatures and dry weather in early June.

[UK_Palms]

The wind has finally died down a bit here now. I've gone from having 50mph gusts to 20mph gusts in the past few hours here. I am so glad that this 'cyclone' has finally passed through, although it probably wasn't quite as bad as I was expecting. I thought I would get 70mph gusts inland here, but the highest wind speed was only 57mph. The damage in the garden was certainly not as bad as I was anticipating. The south coast is a different story entirely though. They got hit real hard down there on the coast and they have quite a lot of palms, which I hope are okay. The big washies at Ventnor come to mind, where winds got up to 90mph+. Hopefully there's no major losses for them. 

Here's a few more graphics of the 'cyclone', showing that it originated down in the tropics...

 

One of the latest snowfalls on record has just occurred in parts of Switzerland and northern Italy. A testament to just how cold May has been so far in Europe...

 

 

Edited May 21, 2021 by UK_Palms

[UK_Palms]

The weather is still dreadful here. This will almost certainly be the worst May since records began way back in the 1690's, it's actually that bad. There's just a combination of negatives. It will certainly finish as having the lowest average high temperature on record for May. Probably the lowest average temperature on record too. We also saw the highest wind speed on record and the stormiest May ever too, given that there has been two bad storms now. Even just one in May is rare. The coasts are still getting battered by strong winds as well. 

 

Some places are also having their wettest May on record as well. I am already up to 4.1 inches here making it my wettest May in over 50 years. I also experienced my wettest May day on Sunday 23rd with 1.71 inches. Record low sunshine levels too this month. I have never seen it this gloomy in May. There are just so many separate, individual records that have been broken now this month. It all adds up making it collectively the worst May ever on record here. It's probably twice as bad as the previous record cold, or worst May. This one is way worse. 

 

With a high of just 12.4C on Sunday, that makes it my coldest daytime high on record for May 23rd. The previous record was 13.1C. I'm expecting highs of 12C on Monday as well, which will be another record breaking low max. My average high for the time of year is 19C, meaning daytime temperatures are currently running 7C below average! Highs of just 12C, across multiple days, in late May! That is disgustingly low for the time of year. Certainly the coldest spell of late May weather on record I believe. Saturday night was chilly as well. 

 

As it stands for my location here, May will be breaking several different records for temperatures and rainfall...

- lowest average high temperature on record

- lowest average temperature on record  

- first time in May that 20C has never been reached

- 3rd wettest May on record, at least

- Highest May wind speed on record

- Stormiest May on record

 

The rain here has been almost apocalyptic for the time of year. May is usually my driest month averaging 0.5 inches, along with June. Yet I could still have my wettest May on record this year with 10 x my May average for recent years. If I had to rate this spring on a scale of 1 to 10, I would rate it a -2. The hottest day of 2021 came almost 2 months ago now in late March when I reached 27C. Since then I have not reached 20C once in April or May. Never before has that happened here. What the hell is going on? 

Is this just a total blip, like a freak cold season, or is this proof that global warming isn't real? Because I'm having serious doubts after this. I firmly believed in global warming but this spring has been an utter joke. Just so cold. It has truly been that bad in recent months. THE WORST SPRING EVER! I would be interested to hear what other people in Europe think of it...? Places like the Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, Slovakia etc have been arguably hit even worse than the UK. Estimated crop losses for Europe are going to run well into the billions. 

[JohnnyKarelian]

 

31 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

I would be interested to hear what other people in Europe think of it...? Places like the Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, Slovakia etc have been arguably hit even worse than the UK. Estimated crop losses for Europe are going to run well into the billions. 

Hi @UK_Palms , i don’t live there anymore, but most of my family lives on the west coast of the Netherlands.
From what I read in the news as well as what I hear from relatives is that the weather is definitely different compared to the past few years.

However in some reports I read that the rain was very welcome as the water level has been way too low, thanks to the past years which were so dry.
And still despite the more rain it is not enough to fully restore the water level that the drought in the past years has made. 
 

the average for spring in the Netherlands is 9.9 Celsius, and the average this year is 8 Celsius. So it’s almost a full 2 degrees different. 

The reports also say that it hasn’t been so cold since 2013, this late in spring. So that is actually not that long ago. I think once you have been spoiled by better temperatures and sunshine levels for a few years, it’s hard to have a year like this in it. weather patterns are just impossible to predict long term, at least accurately, and I think the rain that falls, nature will be happy with it, despite lower temperatures. 

[UK_Palms]

@JohnnyKarelian Well the April just gone was actually the driest April on record here, hence the record number of April frosts too due to the clear skies at night. However this May is now on course to be my wettest ever May on record. So we’ve gone from one extreme to the other, in the space of a few weeks. 

It shows how erratic the rainfall can be here. Also last May, in 2020, was my driest May on record as well as my sunniest ever month on record for the UK and my location. Yet this May is going to be the wettest and possibly the least sunny. So again, pretty erratic rainfall patterns. The only thing that has remained consistent this spring is the below average temperatures over the past 7-8 weeks. 

I shot this video this morning after yet more heavy rain and hail...

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by UK_Palms

[JohnnyKarelian]

That weather in your video was also forecast in the south/southwest of the Netherlands today! Definitely not the usual for This late in May! 
But I did read that better/more stable weather is on the way for you guys with temperatures also picking up! 

[Marco67]

It will get better from Friday on in the Netherlands. Spring hasn't been great but sometimes this happens if you live so far to the north. It seems the wind keeps

coming from the north. The Atlantic is still very cold so the wind doesn't warm up much travelling south. 

What I understand is that the climate is becoming wetter over here.  Precipitation has already increased from about 700 to 800 mm a year.  They predict more 

periods of drought interspersed with heavy downpours. 

 

 

 

[Samuel]

This spring has certainly been poor but seems to be getting more common that we get these very wet months climate is definitely getting wetter in winter and summer 

[UK_Palms]

4 hours ago, Marco67 said:

It will get better from Friday on in the Netherlands. Spring hasn't been great but sometimes this happens if you live so far to the north. It seems the wind keeps

coming from the north. The Atlantic is still very cold so the wind doesn't warm up much travelling south. 

What I understand is that the climate is becoming wetter over here.  Precipitation has already increased from about 700 to 800 mm a year.  They predict more 

periods of drought interspersed with heavy downpours. 

 

You say "sometimes this happens" but here in England we have never, ever had a spring as bad as this one since records began in 1690. It's not just the fact that we have had record low daytime temperatures for 8 weeks straight now almost, but also the record number of frosts in April, the snow in April, my coldest May temperature on record, two Atlantic storms in May, highest ever May windspeed, record rainfall in May, record low sunshine hours for May etc. The list goes on...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just the combination of everything makes this spring twice as bad as the previous worst spring on record. Almost everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong. This is probably a 1 in 250 year spring event, if not a 1 in 500 year event. We probably won't ever see a spring as bad as this one ever again, given how bad both April and May have been. Unbelievably, June is just a week away and yet March 30th is still our warmest day of this spring, or year. That was recorded almost 2 months ago now. That has never happened before. I recorded 27C on the last day of March, but have then failed to reach 20C throughout the whole of April and May. We've never seen anything like that before either. It's unprecedented. 

The warmer weather is coming with temps of 20-21C, but still nothing that will top the 24.5C that was recorded at Kew in late March...

 

 

 

While we will warm up here in the UK, there is no escape for some parts of eastern Europe which will see further prolonged cold...

 

 

Also, the precipitation here has probably decreased from around 600mm to 500mm a year here since the year 2000. When I was a young kid it was definitely wetter about 20 years ago. What is definitely noticeable is the decrease in spring/summer rainfall and the increase in autumn/winter rainfall here. October - December is far, far wetter than it used to be, whereas April - July is far, far drier than it used to be. The rainfall pattern can be somewhat erratic year on year though. Last May was my driest on record, this May is my wettest on record. 

There are certainly less rainfall days each year nowadays, down from 120 to about 95 days in recent years. But at the same time rainfall events have gotten heavier. The range for rainfall totals has varied between 15 - 24 inches during that time. Obviously this spring is a freak exception to that trend. But we won't have another spring like this for 250 years. We may never experience a spring as bad as thing one again. This is a freak of nature season. The warmer weather can't come soon enough!

 

[Marco67]

I have seen a lot of bad springs during my life this is simply one of them.  No use complaining, there is nothing you can do about it anyway.  

You will appreciate the nice weather at the end of the week even more now  

[UK_Palms]

12 hours ago, Marco67 said:

I have seen a lot of bad springs during my life this is simply one of them.  No use complaining, there is nothing you can do about it anyway.  

You will appreciate the nice weather at the end of the week even more now  

While I agree that you need to remain positive and look forward, at the same time the significance of this record breaking spring cannot be overlooked. It may actually be worse over here in the UK than it has been in the Netherlands. So many records have been broken here over the past 2 months.

This is now officially my wettest May on record here now and I have also recorded my highest 24 hour rainfall total on record for May as well on Monday. There’s a good chance that we will have the lowest sunshine hours for a May ever too here, as well as the lowest average and average high temperatures on record. That on top of all the April records. Not to mention my lowest May temperature ever. 

Northern Ireland is also part of the UK and they have had their highest number of May frosts on record now...

As you can see temperatures have been well below average the past 2 months. The only difference between April and May being the rainfall...

 

Germany has faired pretty badly this spring. While we have 16C here today, some places over there are still struggling to get above 10C...

 

As you say, things are due to warm up again now, although no proper heat still. We may hit 20C on Thursday and then have an extended run of 21-22C days at best. Maybe 23C if I’m lucky. The shift is already noticeable here though with high pressure now moving in. However no amount of heat can atone for this record breaking cold spring that we have had. The difference between May 2020 and 2021 is unbelievable...

 

 

 

[UK_Palms]

I reached 19C on Wednesday, which is around about average for late May here. Going for a high of 20C on Thursday then it looks like we will have a solid run of temps in the 20's C from here onwards. It's long overdue, but still does not compensate for the sh*t spring that we have had. Although temperatures will be running above average next week...

 

 

The tree foliage still looks about 2-3 weeks behind where it should be at this time of year. It's probably 4 weeks behind where it was at this stage last May. The difference is less pronounced in London and the big cities where they did not have nighttime radiation frosts in April, due to the UHI. I had to drive into London for work the other day and the trees look almost normal, maybe just a week or so behind where they should be, yet out here in rural Surrey the trees are about 3 weeks behind. 

Fruit crops have been delayed as well...