Rob - no hard feelings, but I can't do this anymore. You want me to go into detail when this is your topic and you won't. And then you don't even pay attention to my details when I do.
"APPLE will be up 30% in a year" I didn't say that. I gave a range of a potential target I used to calculate a risk and reward. It could just as easily have been read to be 20% in 2 years. But the numbers work out to be about a third to a half of the decline, added to today's price.
"the smartest minds on the planet tend to not sell stocks that will gain 30% in a year" - you do realize that for every "smart" mind that sells a share, another "smart" mind buys it - and only time will tell who was smarter. I do realize it is a risky trade, but I weighed the potential reward (my target) against my maximum loss (my stop loss), and deemed it acceptable. My inflection points are primarily based on extreme sentiment - and there is a lot of pessimism surrounding Apple right now. It could go lower, but IMO not a whole lot lower. And I'm in no hurry - they are going to do something with all that cash.
And in no way would I ever recommend to anyone to follow my trade, nor would I claim genius if it pans out. It is only a calculated risk - not a prediction. But as I said, I'm done with this unless you start talking pricing and timing.