With the final days of June ...and the longest day of the year... quickly passing in the rear view mirror, and the road ahead leading right into the heart of the " Season Of The Sun.. " so too do we enter what most consider the best season of the year here in AZ and surrounding areas, Monsoon Season..

That time of year that captivates any ..and everyone who respects and deeply admires the incredible dynamics of a unique place situated right at the edge of the tropics.

'Tis That time of year when a much welcomed, magic wand can be waved across the land ....rapidly transforming otherwise " boring " and thirsty - looking landscapes into hard to forget, lush, and vivid visions of seemingly far away places that are wetter and greener ...if only for just a few months..

...When everything comes together, just the way we hope it does, that is.


....That time of year when seemingly un- ending, blazing, sun drenched heat can be broken by it's own brute force in unforgettable displays involving two of nature's greatest forces, Water, and Electricity..


When its good, really good, areas outside the arena ( Arena = Core area of the North American Monsoon Region ) that often sit on the sidelines, hoping for -anything- get to experience shared episodes of this incredible gift from the tropics from the comforts of their own backyards ..or a favorite beach..



While no two years are ever alike, ..Tis' the mystery that is this summer season weather pattern, and some years leave everyone with the unpleasant taste of disappointment, when the sun wins out, there is a valuable lifes' -lesson in that disappointment..

Kick back, Relax ..And convince me ..that things will be better, ..next year..



With the first week or so of the season under way ..both ways it is laid out, ..What comes next?

..Are things looking as promising as everyone has suggested, ..for months?

...or are we staring down another year of ...some deg. ... of humbling, ahead.. ?



Instead of laying out my thoughts as i have in past years threads on the subject, One can go back to past threads on the subject to research the " nuts n' bolts ", if curious..

I'll just say this....


June 11th - June 25th rainfall via Rainlog.org .. = While not widespread just yet, this isn't a " horrible " look, either.. Anyone well versed in their Monsoon season -ology fully understands ...and accepts, that our summer season rainfall is always a bit random, rarely uniform, esp. during the opening act portion of the season.. That said, Tucson could share some though, lol.

Areas across the borderlands, Tucson, and parts of the Rim/ White Mountains / N.E. AZ, UT ..and New Mexico.. saw some activity yesterday as well, though it doesn't seem that data has been included in the current maps yet..































Nice to see some numbers on the board for New Mexico and El Paso already this year too...






Some living elsewhere may laugh at these totals but, ..This is how a good season can start here.. It is only June. Typically, Real rains don't start kicking in until after the 4th of July..

Tucson, at the Airport, is already wayy ahead of normal, ..for now.. ( 1.05" to date, vs. the typical .18" - .22" June Avg. )

Still, ..i need some convincing..




As mentioned, season itself has started off right - on - the - mark.. Actually qualifies as the earliest start on record. = a good thing? ..Convince me..







An end of the month check of SSTs, both in the East Pac. and Gulf ( of CA ) = pretty decent. ** See the video at the end for more clues.. < SOTO and NOAA Contour Chart Data >

SST Temps.. Northern Gulf of CA. = Redder, the better



Current Anomalies.. Not too bad..




A different view of chart 1




Add in the suggested continued warming we should see as we head forward from the quickly developing El Nino ..and ..good odds for what most forecasts have been suggesting..

..Still, ..Feel free, to convince me.







Overall look of factors examined every year, ...that are going to be scrutinized really closely this year..



1 = ENSO Region.. = Rapidly developing positive ENSO / El Nino phase this year.. Could that be a good ..and not so great... thing?

2 = Suggested Atlantic / Caribbean Basin Hurricane outlook.. = Looking dry / suppressed this year, thanks to said developing El Nino.. How will that impact area #9, via Easterly Wave activity? ..More < or less > moisture from them reaching this side of Mexico?

3 - 7 = Eastern Pacific.. = Supposed to be a pretty active season, though i'm not all that impressed at what i'm seeing so far.. Will it start kicking into gear, as some have suggested, once we get past the 4th of July? ..let alone keep churning thru Aug and September?

This factor plays large on how much??? moisture / storm episodes reach California this year.. Want a seat in the arena this year? Pacific needs to get cranking..


8 = Sierra Madre Occidental.. End of June = Should be kicking into gear, but has been a lackluster " spurt -n' sputter -y " start, so far.. What's going on, why do all the current extended forecasts keep looking dry there?


10 = Southern Plains.. Moisture source that can enhance storm activity here when the upper level flow is right.. Been reasonably wet out there but may dry out as we head into July.. We want the plains to go into a sort of drought at that time, but don't want things to be so dry that all we get is dry air from that region.

11 = Clockwise flow around the 4 - corners / Subtropical High, once it sets up *** ..if it does this year....... Can send us moisture from the Midwest, depending on how the high is set up.

*** That said, for the moment at least, the high itself has struggled to lock itself down over the region, thanks in part to a still - active N. Pacific Jet that keeps sending troughs into the Pac. NW, thus knocking down the Subtrop High each time it tries to set up where we would like it to.. Knocked down 4C High = sitting on top of AZ / NM, or to our south.. ='s not a good position for bringing in moisture ..Ala: Disappointment Years, like 2020, 19, 23.

EL Nino, the big ones like this year seems to be shaping up to be, can effect the N. Pac Jet, even during the summer, to some deg. at least as it develops.

Need to shove all in-bound summer season Pac NW troughiness up into Canada, just a bit more, so the high can unpack it's bags over the 4 corners and get the show going...



Will this occur as many are suggesting, as we get past the 4th? ..or is this going to be the big " thumbs down " factor that tries to toss a cold, wet blanket on the entire season ahead?


...All i can say is ..Convince me..




Near term? ..Forecasts are still all over the place /on something mushroom -y.. Bring a good surge of moisture back into the area by ..or just after.. the 5th, only to toss that idea aside for something drier / " can kicked down the road again" kind of forecast, later.


Today's 3 -4 week looks ok, but.. It's looked " ok " several times recently ..only to cower in a corner, later..





..For now, all we can do is ...Kick back, And relax.. Aint' nothing anyone can do to change the weather, despite those who worship weird " beliefs "


Though i was hoping to see a wetter end of June than i'm seeing atm, we're on a " decent enough " track thus far, Already had our first duster / snagged the season's first good bolts, a rare, sunrise rainbow ....and... ..as is being repeated by most forecasters, the show really isn't supposed to get cranking until -at least- mid July, ....so..

Regardless, as everyone familiar with it already knows, quite well, Monsoon ..is going to Monsoon, ...regardless of human -esque " hopes n' dreams ".


Any worry?

...If we're still coming up dry n' dusty by mid / late August / 4C high is still a ghost, that's probably a sign a whole lot of forecasters are going to have A LOT of explaining to do, lol..


Hopefully that doesn't happen, and we can kick back and enjoy a really good show, all of us, across the region.. ..and all the magic that it brings..



*** Skip on to the last half of the video for thoughts on the forecast.. *** An interesting tidbit embedded within regarding how the flood control district may view " monsoon Season " in the future, too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKtGDp-d2kk




....Ball is in your court Henz, < ....and others >


..Convince me..

After the past three years, I'll believe it when I see it. Yes, we technically had a "normal" season last year but it was basically one massive storm at the tail end of the season while the rest of the summer was pretty much bone dry (in the east valley at least).

2022 was my first full summer in the area and that was not a bad season but it's been super hot and dry since.

2 hours ago, 80s Kid said:

After the past three years, I'll believe it when I see it.

Yes, we technically had a "normal" season last year but it was basically one massive storm at the tail end of the season while the rest of the summer was pretty much bone dry (in the east valley at least).

2022 was my first full summer in the area and that was not a bad season but it's been super hot and dry since.

Agree 100%... hence the title of the thread of this year's thread..

Agree that last year was heavily weighted on the rains we saw toward the very end of the season, though overall, it was definitely better than either '23 or '24..

Oddly enough, 22 was actually drier than last year, at least by what was logged at Sky Harbor. Both years? pale and bland in comparison to 2021 ..which was incredible, imo.. 2018 was fairly decent as well. Some forecasters have been using '18 as a " past reference " analog for this year.

I myself want to lean more heavily on 21, or maybe one of the better years in the '90's, but can see the logic behind eye -balling 18.

If you look at rainfall and lightning count data for both Tucson and PHX < via the Monsoon Tracker > ..and AZ overall, you'll notice how, ...while we can see good, " early " rains, every so often, typically, the majority of the seasons' totals don't really start stacking up in until sometime right around / after the middle of July, so, ....we've got a little wiggle room, for now..

What is interesting, to me at least, is how ..while one can easily see the Catalinas from Telegraph Peak on South Mountain, or the parking lot on the southeast side of the San Tans, they can have a good / pretty good year, while we suffer through the sun.. Less common are the years when we BOTH have good / great years..


Tucson, at the airport,




PHX, at Sky Harbor



This is also true if you look further out, ..at say data from ABQ, Flagstaff, and / or El Paso as well Rare that EVERYONE has a great year.. Used only 2014 -26 data but you can go much further out and see a similar pattern. Some years are great for many or everyone, while only a few notch a win for the season during others.

"Tis the sometimes annoying intrigue of the Monsoon..



I myself hate using Sky Harbor as a " ends all " data point for how wet or dry X or Y season ended up because, like many other areas around the valley, Chandler can see much more rainfall than near the airport, and/or downtown so,... when it is wet here, but only registers as normal there, ..the season total logged there doesn't correctly capture how the season panned out. After years of noting how other people easily notice the same thing, No question that i'm not the only person who feels similarly about this.

Valley -wide average is better, but ..i'm just not fully satisfied using that means to gauge a season, either.

..Is why i'll average out data between what is captured via the closest - to- me gauges utilized by our flood control district, and data from nearby gauges used by Rain Log when assessing how good or horrible a season was. ..Not that how the yards look < or don't > by the end of September doesn't provide the best clues.

One thing is certain, this year will be interesting, ..not that all of them aren't. ...is already off to an interesting start, even if it doesn't seem like it right now.




Waiting for the next good moisture surge to see if something i noted during last weeks is a hint of the kind of pattern this year might bring, or is simple " random chance " but,

While it was pretty weak, in terms of being able to generate -anything- as it moved through ( wasn't forecast to do so, at all ), the isolated, -tiny- dots on a big map that had me of bed and outside at 2am, for 3 days straight, trying to capture the handful of bolts each storm generated, may point to wetter times ahead, ..in the sense that ..if a really weak disturbance riding a late night gulf surge into the area can spark " here this minute, gone in 2 " storms, could that point to far better storm coverage / intensity as we head forward, if ..or when.. deeper moisture is present ..that extra moisture provided by the " suggested ", warmer than normal Pacific / Gulf of CA?

..We'll see..

Though the " Pre -July " activity was a bit stronger in both '21 and '22 than what i've noted so far this year, what i've seen so far, this year, isn't too far off from what i saw at the start of both of those years either..


" Wait - and - See / Believe it when i see it ", " ...Cross the fingers, with conviction / Wash the car(s) -repeatedly, " lol ..or simply " convince me "

We'll know what lies ahead on the road this year, soon..



On a side note, As much as i wish it was UA doing it, instead, Appears ASU < west campus > will be starting a long term research project to see if many years ..decades... of individual - assumption regarding the degree of possible negative / positive side - effects < of city / valley -wide development over the last several decades > has on how the season behaves locally starts this year.

I appreciate you posting previous rainfall totals for Phoenix and Tucson during the monsoon season. I feel like I've been severely deprived of a real monsoon season since I moved to the area in late 2021. There were some nice storms shortly after I arrived and in 2022 but I feel like we're due for a real big season...of course mother nature doesn't care what I think haha.

I miss some of the rain and lightning from the east coast. I don't miss the cold weather, though.

2 hours ago, 80s Kid said:

I appreciate you posting previous rainfall totals for Phoenix and Tucson during the monsoon season. I feel like I've been severely deprived of a real monsoon season since I moved to the area in late 2021. There were some nice storms shortly after I arrived and in 2022 but I feel like we're due for a real big season...of course mother nature doesn't care what I think haha.

..Keep in mind that those totals are just for the airports.. That said, very rare that ..if the totals are good as say Sky Harbor, quite likely the rest of the valley is probably doing ok as well..

Dialing that in a bit more, Using Rainlog data from 2021, While Tucson Intl. recorded 12.79" in '21, ( *** Think the gauge there was installed late in the season that year, hence it only recording 4", instead of the official amount for the season down there. Also pretty sure the gauge up on Mt. Lemmon was installed late.. Definitely saw more than the suggested 7.67" *** ) many other spots, below the mountains, topped 15" - 15"+

..It rained so much that year down there that springs started flowing up through cracks in some of the roads in various parts of town.

6/15/21 - 9/30/21









If you've traveled down that way since moving here, no doubt you've passed Picacho Peak..

What usually looks kind of " meh " as you pass it, looked like this while headed to the borderlands in mid Aug. of 21 ..Passed it countless times sine 2009 and never seen it look like this, esp. during a given summer.



Blurry, but a shot of the Tucson Mtns ( Ring the West / Southwest side of town ) ..which usually get a " they look alright " most of the time thought when viewing them, on the way back from the borderlands that afternoon..



For a few seconds while driving through this area, i honestly thought i'd been transported about 300 -500 miles further south, where the foothills can look like this a majority of years.

Combined w/ everything else seen that day = mind- blown- / Those views forever burned into memory ....and helping to keep faith alive during the Non - soon years..

" More local " views that summer? very similar to these pictured down south.. Pretty sure there were even temporary waterfalls cascading off certain spots in the Superstitions for a week or two later that summer as well..

Will we have that kind of summer? ..Like you, i sure hope we do, lol..

Will say that after experiencing '21, i'm aiming bigger..

Wettest summer up here, via what was recorded at Sky Harbor?. Over 9"