florida 2025-2026 Florida Winter

[idontknowhatnametuse]

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[mnorell]

4 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

California must be way overdue a palmageddon event. Certainly the northern parts of CA and also Nevada, Arizona, northwest Mexico etc. I suppose the Los Angeles area would be pretty well protected with their microclimate from the large UHI and Sierra Nevada. Places like Sacramento, Las Vegas, Phoenix etc are going to get hit properly sooner or later.

It seems to always be the eastern half of the USA in recent years. Well east of the Rockies anyway. When I first got into weather when I was a kid, I remember a bad freeze event happening in the southwest, but that must have been 15-20 years ago now. I think I remember seeing the outskirts of Phoenix go below 15F on Wunderground back then. And maybe 18-20F in Sacramento.

Also on a side note, just seen this...

California has always had periodic cold-waves with terrible freezes...1913, 1925, 1937, 1949, 1990 and 2007 being amongst the most (in)famous. But in general the immense barrier of the Rockies and the various other mountain ranges of the Western USA keep the cold flowing east. And the mighty Pacific generally acts as a tremendous moderator. But it does happen. But nowadays it's more of an agricultural issue than it is one for tropical ornamental horticulture, since the latter generally exists in developed suburban, semi-urban or urban landscapes with their broad UHIs, as noted by Nathan above; and agriculture has been chased out to less hospitable areas by the power of the developer and the mighty dollar.

But as in most places, many plants will be damaged but recover, others will die, and provide gardeners and landscapers with open spaces for something new. Not always a bad situation, in fact an assist to overplanters or those who purposely utilize marginally hardy fillers to round out a young landscape. And there are areas that get scorched by cold most years, even right next to the coast, this due to the particularly varied geography and topography in the west. The nursery industry is no stranger to it, and replacement plants are a healthy part of the plant industry. Also one must keep in mind that, not only are the most severe events east of the Divide more spectacularly cold than in the west, but also the very tender landscaping materials used in Central and Southern Florida are far more pervasive there as compared to the generally more conservative landscapes encountered in most of California, and I believe also in Southern Arizona and Southern Nevada...so the effects are usually much less noticeable in the southwest. But yes, it can fill those of us with large collections of tender materials with a similar angst, to be sure. But at the end of the day you have to readjust, learn, and move on within your level of comfort.

Also, I notice that you posted a wind-chill temperature map, rather than the 2m temperature map. Remember that wind-chill is irrelevant to plants, as it only affects animals. Plants can be dried out by the intense, dessicating winds that often accompany extreme cold events, but it's not "wind chill" as is usually equated with the effect of a lower temperature.
 

[SubTropicRay]

The Climate Prediction Center's low temp estimation for Sunday AM based on the various weather models, with extra weight from ECMWF IFS, ECMWF AI and GFS.  The numbers in Florida appear slightly overdone but who knows by the time the weekend arrives.

[Matthew92]

Lows at 7:30am central time 

 

The only sub-20 deg temps I saw were north of Milton towards the Alabama border 

[JLM]

Hit 21F this morning. Will report on any damages thru the week.

Feels like this is just delaying the inevitable though. 18F now in the forecast for Saturday night. Really hoping it trends warmer with time, but given the pattern that might be hard to do.

[Matthew92]

[Matthew92]

17 minutes ago, JLM said:

Hit 21F this morning. Will report on any damages thru the week.

Feels like this is just delaying the inevitable though. 18F now in the forecast for Saturday night. Really hoping it trends warmer with time, but given the pattern that might be hard to do.

Low here was 21deg. This whole event was a smidge warmer than what had been predicted a couple days ago when I thought I’d probably get to about 18.  It was 24deg at 4:30am so I actually thought it might not even get as low as it did.

 Looks like models for peninsular FL freeze Feb 1-2nd are ticking a smidge warmer too, but probably not enough to rest easy at all as we’re still 5 days out and it can trend either way still. (Edit: looking closer it’s actually not that much of a tick warmer than I previously thought most 06z model runs still show mid 20’s for much of central FL).

[Matthew92]

And one more close up of the Orlando area. This was taken at 8:52am eastern time so I imagine it may have warmed up some already. But still pretty chilly.

[flplantguy]

33 at my place, looking worse for everyone, especially east this weekend.  get your plans done ASAP the time runs out fast.

[OutpostPalms]

22 this morning here for my first 9A night. 22 forecasted again Sunday morning. Hopefully we are home free for the season after this. 

[HudsonBill]

First night of palmageddon and I hit 31.2. Pretty much hovered around 32 till sun up when it dipped quick. 

 

12z gfs still showing the winds coming onshore for west coast of fl with the cold this weekend. 

[Matthew92]

1 minute ago, HudsonBill said:

First night of palmageddon and I hit 31.2. Pretty much hovered around 32 till sun up when it dipped quick. 

 

12z gfs still showing the winds coming onshore for west coast of fl with the cold this weekend. 

 

Yep the angle the winds are coming from determines most of how bad the freeze is in the peninsula.

[Chester B]

15 hours ago, FlaPalmLover said:

Yeah,  I honestly thought this area was perhaps turning into a warm 9b, but it looks like it's just regular 9b. 🙄

You should give my 9B a try here in Houston.  23F last night and the last two years lows of 19F.  I wouldn't even dream of a foxtail or king palm.

[RedRabbit]

20 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

California must be way overdue a palmageddon event. Certainly the northern parts of CA and also Nevada, Arizona, northwest Mexico etc. I suppose the Los Angeles area would be pretty well protected with their microclimate from the large UHI and Sierra Nevada. Places like Sacramento, Las Vegas, Phoenix etc are going to get hit properly sooner or later.

It seems to always be the eastern half of the USA in recent years. Well east of the Rockies anyway. When I first got into weather when I was a kid, I remember a bad freeze event happening in the southwest, but that must have been 15-20 years ago now. I think I remember seeing the outskirts of Phoenix go below 15F on Wunderground back then. And maybe 18-20F in Sacramento.

Also on a side note, just seen this...

I think the models are getting this one wrong.

They show Orlando getting to around 24f, Miami close to freezing, while Tampa stays around 36f. I’ve never seen it play out to where the east coast gets so much colder than the west coast.

[HudsonBill]

On 1/27/2026 at 1:42 PM, RedRabbit said:

I think the models are getting this one wrong.

They show Orlando getting to around 24f, Miami close to freezing, while Tampa stays around 36f. I’ve never seen it play out to where the east coast gets so much colder than the west coast.

Very possible with wind direction but who knows tonight is forecast to be 20 in spring hill now so after tonight what happens this weekend doesn't even matter anymore 

 

I figured this would happen. Models don't do well in florida at all for cold it is always colder than the models show. 20 tonight in spring hill and its always under the forecast so looks like high teens for parts of central florida. Global warming is fake. 

 

If it gets to 20 tonight I'll just plan on single digits low teens for the next cold event this weekend. 

[Matthew92]

Plastic containers we collect rainwater in on our south facing, screened-in pool patio started freezing this morning.
 

[flplantguy]

The lowest temps this area sees are highly localized and only on calm nights, so with wind that super low reading won't happen.  It will still be bad and I'm doing what I can to create windbreaks for mine, but the crazy numbers aren't a given for everyone. Just prepare for the worst as best you can and hope for the best. 

[Matthew92]

Cold event this weekend very similar to Dec 2010

[Palmarum]

I was eating lunch today and on the place's TV it flashed...

"Possible Wind Chills in the 20ºF's for Miami."

I damn near had a heart attack. Yikes. Coldest in 15 years. Going to dig out the improvised garage heating setup last used in 2010 and '09. It's all coming inside now. They mentioned possible snow flurries in Orlando?

A reminder for those bringing stuff inside to garages, sheds, etc. to make sure to get pots Off the concrete floor via tables, benches, towels, cardboard, whatever you have. 

Ryan

[UK_Palms]

3 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

I think the models are getting this one wrong.

They show Orlando getting to around 24f, Miami close to freezing, while Tampa stays around 36f. I’ve never seen it play out to where the east coast gets so much colder than the west coast.

Latest ECM (Euro) update. The west coast is showing slightly colder than the east coast, as you said it would be. It’s also starting to look like Miami may record its first technical air frost in what… 37 years? That is if the last air frost was back in 1989…?

Looking at that, I would expect 30-34F in Miami. Although ECM hi-res map charts typically understate the minimum by about 1-2C / 2-4F. So it could be 28-35F in Miami. This is just one model run though. It may not be correct. Northern panhandle regions don’t look as bad on this run though saying that.

[Jimbean]

40 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Latest ECM (Euro) update. The west coast is showing slightly colder than the east coast, as you said it would be. It’s also starting to look like Miami may record its first technical air frost in what… 37 years? That is if the last air frost was back in 1989…?

Looking at that, I would expect 30-34F in Miami. Although ECM hi-res map charts typically understate the minimum by about 1-2C / 2-4F. So it could be 28-35F in Miami. This is just one model run though. It may not be correct. Northern panhandle regions don’t look as bad on this run though saying that.

I've looked at the forecasts and it's looking like an east coast event here.  I remember last winter the west coast got hammered and now it looks like it's our turn. 

[kinzyjr]

It got down to 35F here.  When I woke up it was closer to 38F, but it dropped pretty quickly before the sun came up.  The airport recorded just a hair under 34F for a low, so in the historical records, it will probably be marked as 34F.  It may not matter much come this weekend as predictions of mid-20s or lower are now common place in the forecast models.

[TropicsEnjoyer]

2 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

It’s also starting to look like Miami may record its first technical air frost in what… 37 years? That is if the last air frost was back in 1989…?

Looking at that, I would expect 30-34F in Miami. Although ECM hi-res map charts typically understate the minimum by about 1-2C / 2-4F. So it could be 28-35F in Miami.

Seeing Miami could get a frost just insane to me. In the 12/13 years I lived there the lowest it ever got was like 45. Times are changing… I wonder how all the super tropical plants are going to react.

[Merlyn]

The first night of Adonidiageddon here was 29.1F but no visible frost.  It stayed under freezing for 3.5 hours.  The local airport registered 34 degrees for 2 hours.  Current forecast lows are still the worst on Saturday morning at 25F and Sunday morning at 27F.  Back to 9A here instead of their silly 10A rating!!!

[HudsonBill]

15 minutes ago, TropicsEnjoyer said:

Seeing Miami could get a frost just insane to me. In the 12/13 years I lived there the lowest it ever got was like 45. Times are changing… I wonder how all the super tropical plants are going to 

I could realy use some of that global warming tgey keep screaming about. Lol

 

[Matthew92]

6 minutes ago, Merlyn said:

The first night of Adonidiageddon here was 29.1F but no visible frost.  It stayed under freezing for 3.5 hours.  The local airport registered 34 degrees for 2 hours.  Current forecast lows are still the worst on Saturday morning at 25F and Sunday morning at 27F.  Back to 9A here instead of their silly 10A rating!!!

My location is supposed to be 9a with the new map but starting in the ‘22-‘23 winter I've had lows each winter of 18, 19, and 15 deg!!! smh…

[UK_Palms]

13 minutes ago, TropicsEnjoyer said:

Seeing Miami could get a frost just insane to me. In the 12/13 years I lived there the lowest it ever got was like 45. Times are changing… I wonder how all the super tropical plants are going to react.

A ground frost will form at 2-3C / 36-38F but an air frost obviously needs to be 0C / 32F.

I wouldn’t bet against -1C / 30F in Miami on Saturday night. So a fair bit colder than 2010.

There could however be last minute adjustments and it may get nowhere near that cold, staying in the mid 30’s F. Time will tell.

 

Miami could have a colder winter minimum than parts of England and Ireland this winter. And we had the coldest start to January in 16 years here, since 2010, a few weeks back. Funny how 2010 keeps coming up on analogs. Similarish setups on both sides of the Atlantic to that winter. Although that winter was something else altogether in Europe.

Anyway, the lowest in the Isles of Scilly (50N) just off Cornwall this winter is +3.1C / 38F. I will be looking to see how Key West performs too this weekend.

[Matthew92]

Already 35deg here at 6:30pm. Forecast low is 29???  I don’t trust it. Might be quite a nasty radiational freeze. Sometimes it will be alarming and drop more quickly earlier in the evening only to plateau halfway through the night, but some other times I’ve seen it get colder than predicted and it drops like a rock through early morning. Glad I still have everything covered.

[HudsonBill]

Below freezing by 1030 pm ooooof

[flplantguy]

Hitting freezing here close to midnight means a nasty morning is in store. 32.2 with a dew point of 30 and steadily dropping. I bet the weekend front won't matter at this rate, although I did cover everything just in case it's really bad with frost too. The yard is either frozen back already or covered, so if the covers aren't enough tonight I won't bother the rest of winter and I will make some changes in the future.  This winter will be the last bit of info on this place, but it's not looking good for anything that hates freezes or needs a year or two after to look good.

[HudsonBill]

47 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

Hitting freezing here close to midnight means a nasty morning is in store. 32.2 with a dew point of 30 and steadily dropping. I bet the weekend front won't matter at this rate, although I did cover everything just in case it's really bad with frost too. The yard is either frozen back already or covered, so if the covers aren't enough tonight I won't bother the rest of winter and I will make some changes in the future.  This winter will be the last bit of info on this place, but it's not looking good for anything that hates freezes or needs a year or two after to look good.

Yeah this is nuts I might aswell just move back north and enjoy the snow. 

[Looking Glass]

Miami and Fort Lauderdale both just hit 88F degrees Monday January 26th, which were record high temps for that day.  

The all-time coldest recorded temperatures ever for both cities is 28F degrees last reached about 50+ years ago.  At those temps, there would be some major damage of just about everything with obliteration of vast swaths of plants. 

Those numbers are being thrown around here, but it will be quite an event if it were anywhere in the low 30s.  It’s hit freezing here overnight just 3x in about 50 years.  1x in the past 30 years.  

Hope it doesn’t come to that.  

[SeanK]

I believe this was recorded Tuesday PM. Homestead is where landscape plants are grown, large-scale.

Like I said, Miami is not tropical. Forget Köppen.

 

[SubTropicRay]

This is the worst arctic oscillation index for Florida winter since 2010.  It looks to stay negative which is pointing to more cold problems well into February.  The longer that blackline stays under 0, the longer the door stays wide open for subsequent cold blasts.  Notice the last time it was above 0!  You know, La Nina winter, warmer than normal 🤬

 

[flplantguy]

Sat at 30 for a while then came up to 35 now. Odd. I expected 25 possibly based on last night. Some good news.  Hope it keeps up, the forecast moderated a bit too.

[SubTropicRay]

2 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

Sat at 30 for a while then came up to 35 now. Odd. I expected 25 possibly based on last night. Some good news.  Hope it keeps up, the forecast moderated a bit too.

Clouds saved the day night

[kinzyjr]

We recorded a wider spread for minimums throughout the property with readings 34F-36F.  Around 1am, the temperature started climbing.  Like Ray said, we got bailed out of one night.  

[HudsonBill]

54 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

Sat at 30 for a while then came up to 35 now. Odd. I expected 25 possibly based on last night. Some good news.  Hope it keeps up, the forecast moderated a bit too.

Same here dropped to 31 then kind hovered there between 31 and 33 all night. 

[SeanK]

This morning's low temps.

 

Sunday lows expected to break records.

RRW to the 1990 zone map 

[Matthew92]

Radiational freeze got to 23deg as I thought might happen. Snow like frost. I can always tell when it’s a hard freeze cause the leaves on my orange trees will curl slightly. Haven’t entered leaf-drop territory yet. Thankfully though this cold weather before the harder freeze this weekend ensures they are in relative dormancy.