florida 2025-2026 Florida Winter

[kinzyjr]

It was perfect tour weather for @PalmBossTampa and @Midnight Gardener over the weekend.  The high at the airport today was 88F, breaking the old record by 3^oF.  Now we get about two weeks of garbage weather.  Since the NWS and Weather.com forecasts are almost identical, we'll just stick with the graphic below +/-1.  We'll see how this holds up and how the plants hold up to it:

[JLM]

Forecast lows over the next 7 days here:

Tonight - 25F
Monday night - 21F
Tuesday night - 26F
Wednesday night - 26F
Thursday night - 31F
Friday night - 26F
Saturday night - 23F

Gonna be a rough week. Gonna be protecting a lot of things tomorrow, I dont plan on gambling with this. Not betting the last 6 and a half years of my life on the forecast being correct to the T.

[HudsonBill]

Tell me this isn't normal here? I'm getting pissed off about this. Wtf is teh point of living in florida if you can't grow anything unless your a billionaire living on the beach. This winter ill end up below freezing probably 12 times right north of tampa. Is this normal? This january is well below average but gauruntee tge media will try and tell us it was the warmest on record. 

[kinzyjr]

1 hour ago, HudsonBill said:

Tell me this isn't normal here? I'm getting pissed off about this. Wtf is teh point of living in florida if you can't grow anything unless your a billionaire living on the beach. This winter ill end up below freezing probably 12 times right north of tampa. Is this normal? This january is well below average but gauruntee tge media will try and tell us it was the warmest on record. 

Actually it was worse in the past by nearly every metric. 

In terms of absolute minimum temperature, The freezes in the 1980s, 1962, and 1890s were dreadful.  Most of the places getting 20s and 30s next week went into the teens during some or all of those events.

In terms of hardiness zones, the forecast from Weather.com has my minimum during this event at 32F.  The minimum for the entire winter thus far is 31F.  That's in line with the 2023 USDA Hardiness Map putting my portion of Lakeland in USDA 10a.  The 1990 zone map had Lakeland in 9a and Orlando in 9b.  That means the locations in question averaged low-20s and mid-20s each year, respectively.  The zone maps from 1990, 2012, and 2023 show the change over time, even if they aren't great planting guides by themselves.

In terms of long stretches of below average temperatures, January 1940, January 1977, Jan/Feb 1996, January 2010, and December 2010 had long stretches of cold that were much worse than this.

While I wouldn't call it normal or typical, it does happen with regularity.  

[flplantguy]

I agree that it feels like it's increased in frequency the last few years but it's the cycle all over again. I'm hoping it will flip back the next few years and let my garden grow in before it returns again. I'll have to look at extremeweatherwatch.com and see how this stacks up after. It blows but it also hasn't even started. We could be expectant just for nothing, or hopeful just to have our gardens sent to the compost heap, we won't know for a bit yet. And then the chill damage has to be dealt with. That's what took out most of mine last year. This begins the winter marathon of protection and peroxide in the crowns after going well into march.  Hopefully everyone does ok and has a plan for after if need be. As implied above, if you plan well and didn't zone push too much you should be fine. Cold comfort that is, no pun intended.

[HudsonBill]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

Actually it was worse in the past by nearly every metric. 

In terms of absolute minimum temperature, The freezes in the 1980s, 1962, and 1890s were dreadful.  Most of the places getting 20s and 30s next week went into the teens during some or all of those events.

In terms of hardiness zones, the forecast from Weather.com has my minimum during this event at 32F.  The minimum for the entire winter thus far is 31F.  That's in line with the 2023 USDA Hardiness Map putting my portion of Lakeland in USDA 10a.  The 1990 zone map had Lakeland in 9a and Orlando in 9b.  That means the locations in question averaged low-20s and mid-20s each year, respectively.  The zone maps from 1990, 2012, and 2023 show the change over time, even if they aren't great planting guides by themselves.

In terms of long stretches of below average temperatures, January 1940, January 1977, Jan/Feb 1996, January 2010, and December 2010 had long stretches of cold that were much worse than this.

While I wouldn't call it normal or typical, it does happen with regularity.  

Look at the computer models for the next week coming up. Most are getting colder and colder with low 20s deep into fl 30s and 40s for highs in central fl for days in a row. This next week or so will be as bad as back in history. 

[HudsonBill]

Its on every run every model is showing similar around the same day.  If it was 200 plus hours our id drug it off but it's not its 156 hours and sooner. 

[HudsonBill]

Gfs same day...... they all show it. 

[80s Kid]

3 hours ago, HudsonBill said:

Tell me this isn't normal here? I'm getting pissed off about this. Wtf is teh point of living in florida if you can't grow anything unless your a billionaire living on the beach. This winter ill end up below freezing probably 12 times right north of tampa. Is this normal? This january is well below average but gauruntee tge media will try and tell us it was the warmest on record. 

Here's how bad things can get in FL if you're looking for the worst case scenario: 

 

 

[Hombre de Palmas]

These model runs paint a dire picture and they are virtually on our doorstep, which is most concerning. The NWS Melbourne synopsis this morning is issuing a heads up. I will include it (edited for brevity) is it is worth a read. Of course, you can go to the NWS site for the complete synopsis.

The door remains wide open for additional surges of Arctic
air into the eastern United States over the next week to
ten days. Teleconnection graphs show a `trifecta` of sorts for
unusually cold weather. First, the Arctic Oscillation is reaching
a nadir of -5 early this week and is forecast to remain negative
for the balance of the next two weeks. NAO has also gone negative,
and right on cue, the PNA is going positive. Hemispheric charts
tell the tale as H5 heights are forecast to remain above normal
over the Arctic. This displaces much colder air southward into the
mid-latitudes.

While below normal temperatures are favored for the foreseeable
future, timing out and assessing the risks for impactful cold
and freezing temperatures across Central Florida will require a
closer look at individual disturbances within this active weather
pattern. There are a pair of features worth keeping an eye on from
later this week through the weekend.

First, a piece of energy should pass from the Rockies into the
Southeast around Thursday, reinforcing the Arctic air mass over the
Eastern U.S. Trailing close behind appears to be another shortwave
approaching Florida by around Saturday. Cluster analysis from the
25/12Z suite, along with early-arriving 26/00Z guidance, leaned
toward some phasing of this feature with a lobe of the polar vortex
to the north of the state. However, confidence remains very low,
evidenced by a very large H5 height interquartile spread by next
Sunday. If this disturbance interacts with the northern stream, the
cold risks for Central Florida would become even more significant
by the weekend.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Weekend...

To start off, there is no question that the forecast for the coming
weekend will remain highly variable for at least two to three more
days. The primary challenge is resolving whether two distinct pieces
of energy, currently thousands of miles apart, will interact to form
a large nor`easter-type storm along the Eastern Seaboard. While the
trend has been moving in that direction over the last day or so,
several ensemble members keep the features separated as they make
their closest approach to Florida. This distinction is critical:
when compared to a disorganized system, a strengthening low off
the east coast could very effectively pull Arctic air much
farther southward through the peninsula.

What this means is a period of heightened uncertainty regarding
both moisture and temperatures. We will carry low rain chances
of 20-30% on Saturday as moisture tries to increase ahead of the
arriving energy. If the two features mentioned before do interact,
a blast of windy and much colder air would likely be felt here in
Central Florida beginning sometime late Saturday and continuing into
Sunday. Statistical guidance clearly illustrates the low-confidence
scenario we are dealing with, as interquartile spreads jump to 10
to 15 degrees for both high and low temperatures from Saturday
through Monday.

Whether temperatures remain manageably cooler than normal or become
significantly colder than normal is still in question. While this
is more of a reasonable worst-case scenario signal, the overall
pattern we are entering has historically supported major freezes
and significant cold air outbreaks in Florida. Those making plans
outdoors or whom have sensitive agricultural interests should
keep a close eye on the forecast as this hopefully becomes clearer
by mid-week.

&&

The ramifications of an event such as this, if it plays out, will be felt far beyond the palm community.  Let's hope that the worst scenario is avoided and best of luck to all. 

[ahosey01]

GFS saying 24F for Orlando on Feb 1.  Fingers crossed for you guys that's wrong.

[kinzyjr]

7 hours ago, HudsonBill said:

Look at the computer models for the next week coming up. Most are getting colder and colder with low 20s deep into fl 30s and 40s for highs in central fl for days in a row. This next week or so will be as bad as back in history. 

This is what it looks like now for here - more like 2010: 16th Anniversary Edition.  We'll see if it gets better or worse.  When this stuff comes along, about all you can do is live through it and tell the story.

[MarkC]

It’s looking brutal for even Miami and Naples. Every run trends colder and colder. I’m actually shocked at how bad the climate in Naples really is. Too many cold outbreaks especially as compared to the East Coast of Florida.

I always kinda wondered why SW Florida just doesn’t look that vibrant as even many places in SoCal, now I understand why. We can throw the hardiness zone map in the garbage already. 

[Hombre de Palmas]

42 minutes ago, MarkC said:

It’s looking brutal for even Miami and Naples. Every run trends colder and colder. I’m actually shocked at how bad the climate in Naples really is. Too many cold outbreaks especially as compared to the East Coast of Florida.

I always kinda wondered why SW Florida just doesn’t look that vibrant as even many places in SoCal, now I understand why. We can throw the hardiness zone map in the garbage already. 

It looks like we are all in the same boat more or less on this one. The only difference is our place in the boat. I still hold out hope that future runs will moderate the present forecast, but the timeframe is not our friend.

But yes, the USDA and Köppen maps didn't age well.

[HudsonBill]

Seems like california is the best place to grow palms outside of the keys. 

[Bill H2DB]

  Here is a long range record of the Temps. in Tampa .

 

 

 

 

 

Here is a link to this data page :  Note that you can choose other locations in the Tampa forecast area . 

https://www.weather.gov/tbw/tampabayoriginalclimatepage

 

[HudsonBill]

8 minutes ago, Bill H2DB said:

  Here is a long range record of the Temps. in Tampa .

 

 

 

 

 

Here is a link to this data page :  Note that you can choose other locations in the Tampa forecast area . 

https://www.weather.gov/tbw/tampabayoriginalclimatepage

 

Yeah florida is a lie sold to people where the weather just sucks worse. 

[MarkC]

21 minutes ago, HudsonBill said:

Seems like california is the best place to grow palms outside of the keys. 

I believe that to be the case, although more recently I’m starting to see more palm decline in CA than in the past, but nothing like what I see in Florida.

Very few exotic palms are able to make it to maturity. Basically most of what we see has to be brought in as adult specimens and even so, outside the coasts, many of them succumb to all sorts of pestilences.

[OutpostPalms]

27 degrees this morning was a pleasant surprise after the forecast of 24. Still saying 22 for tonight but until then my 9B winter lives on for one more day.
 

Also maybe there was something to those apocalyptic cold forecasts my phone was giving me yesterday. I really hope not. 

[80s Kid]

44 minutes ago, HudsonBill said:

Seems like california is the best place to grow palms outside of the keys. 

In terms of the broadest spectrum of palms, Southern Florida and Southern California probably are the best. The problem with CA is you don't have the necessary heat to grow coconut palms. Not sure if other species have this issue.

I will say AZ (low desert climate areas) is interesting. You can't grow a lot of varieties due do the heat/sun/soil, however, you can grow quite a few cold sensitive species if you know what you're doing. Mexican/California fan palms grow like weeds here as do date palms. Dateland, AZ is literally a forest of date palms in the middle of the desert. Mediterranean fan palms do well as do queen palms and bismark palms. Also, certain microclimates do have the potential for coconut palms (and they don't involve having waterfront property). Pygmy date palms have some issues but you do see a bunch of them around. 

There are other varieties people grow that I'm sure I'm missing but the point is there are a handful of varieties that do very well in the desert and cold is much less of a concern. 

[kinzyjr]

Check the weather records for CA first before you move.  The 2007 and 1990 cold snaps wiped out a lot of stuff.  Plus, make sure you're not in a valley.  There were low areas outside San Diego that went into the teens.

[JLM]

27F this morning.

Seeing everything above, I think yall wouldn't survive in the Panhandle. Just sayin. If you really want to grow palms in a cold free environment start looking at Puerto Rico.

[flplantguy]

I was a small child when we hit 20 in Lompc (VAFB) in 1990. It killed our rabbit that we had in the garage protected because we should never have gotten that cold and didn't expect it. Not in the valley either, that was 500 feet up and 5 miles inland. I still remember our poor rabbit and I was 3, almost 4 at the time.  Hawaii and PR/the Caribbean, American Samoa, Guam, there are a few places and all have a tradeoff.

[Xenon]

Southeast Florida is the best place to grow palms and to grow the most variety of palms in the continental US period. It's not a close debate at all. SoCal couldn't touch Dade or Broward county in a million years unless you want to grow some specific cool climate adapted palms. 

I was in Orlando in December and it seemed like someone was distributing free Adonidia. Adonidia spammed everywhere haha. Hopefully it doesn't get too cold considering the recent popular landscaping choices. 

[flplantguy]

12 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Southeast Florida is the best place to grow palms and to grow the most variety of palms in the continental US period. It's not a close debate at all. SoCal couldn't touch Dade or Broward county in a million years unless you want to grow some specific cool climate adapted palms. 

I was in Orlando in December and it seemed like someone was distributing free Adonidia. Adonidia spammed everywhere haha. Hopefully it doesn't get too cold considering the recent popular landscaping choices. 

They sell them here in solid zone 9 areas of Florida too, and I'm sure by next week there will be a lot of returns to the big box stores. Every new arrival becomes obsessed with them, and tries to rip out the appropriate trees to plant them. My job next month will be a lot of fun.

[Jimbean]

There's a system on the horizon for next week that looks to bring a fair share of cold temperatures to the east coast of Florida. 

I believe the gulf coast got hit pretty good last year, it looks like it will be the east coast's turn this year. 

 

[HudsonBill]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

Check the weather records for CA first before you move.  The 2007 and 1990 cold snaps wiped out a lot of stuff.  Plus, make sure you're not in a valley.  There were low areas outside San Diego that went into the teens.

I'm staying here but I will 100 percent be retiring to key west or a coastal island. 

[Jimbean]

[HudsonBill]

22 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Southeast Florida is the best place to grow palms and to grow the most variety of palms in the continental US period. It's not a close debate at all. SoCal couldn't touch Dade or Broward county in a million years unless you want to grow some specific cool climate adapted palms. 

I was in Orlando in December and it seemed like someone was distributing free Adonidia. Adonidia spammed everywhere haha. Hopefully it doesn't get too cold considering the recent popular landscaping choices. 

They are everywhere here. I had a double i dig out of a customers yard and put in mine. 1 died the other lived and has been recovering after 6 hours below freezing at 27 degrees.  Idc if those die lol.  I've seen them take 29 to 32 no problem though in neighborhoods around me.  

[Silas_Sancona]

55 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Check the weather records for CA first before you move.  The 2007 and 1990 cold snaps wiped out a lot of stuff.  Plus, make sure you're not in a valley.  There were low areas outside San Diego that went into the teens.

Growing up out there, vs. speculating on it via questionable record keeping,  Yes, 1990 was cold,  but definitely didn't " wipe out " all the interesting " tender" palms / other stuff that was ..and still is..  growing where i grew up ..inc. numerous Kings, White and Orange Bird of Paradise, Philodendron, Floss Silk tree,  etc.. 

Remember too that many spots that were once undeveloped, pasture and ag. fields back in the late 80s / early 90s are now filled to the gills with concrete and buildings so,  it will be much harder for ..areas in my own neighborhood that bottomed out the upper teens in the 90 freeze for example,  to see the same deg. of cold again should a similar event occur there.  

Could it happen again? of course  ..but i would be shocked to see the same readings..  Couple mornings waking up to lows in the 28-30F range? ..happens every few years..  Doesn't seem to bother anything. 

Even most of the " rural " spots south of San Jose, that can dip into the 20s on a few mornings every few winters, are warmer than way back then.  

Same idea across much of S.Cal..  


2007 wasn't much different.. and there is plenty of stuff planted at that time that shrugged off that event. 

MOO, damage seen during the significant frost / freeze events while living in FL seemed much more apparent / extensive than i can remember seeing after any extended cold event i'd experienced back home in San Jose.. 

Outside of the Central Valley,  99.8% of folks won't want to live in any of the far flung valleys out there that can still dip below 25F  -with regularity-  these days..  



 

[flplantguy]

Preliminary temps in Texas were not quite as bad in spots so I'm hopeful that will translate here. Maybe that bodes well for the next weekend too, but I won't assume that. More supplies came in today for protection that I will do tonight.  Trying to keep winds down in the plants, and frost the next few days after.  last year stuff under canopy was hit hard so I'll be prepared for all of them this time.

[HudsonBill]

57 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

Preliminary temps in Texas were not quite as bad in spots so I'm hopeful that will translate here. Maybe that bodes well for the next weekend too, but I won't assume that. More supplies came in today for protection that I will do tonight.  Trying to keep winds down in the plants, and frost the next few days after.  last year stuff under canopy was hit hard so I'll be prepared for all of them 

I just got back from harbor freiggt and home depot. Building more enclosures for other stuff that I have never protected before. Mainly just feuit trees. 

[Ivanos1982]

These are def bad news, and we are not even in February yet... really hope Feb just neutralizes and gives everyone a rest from this demonic winter we have had. 

[MarkC]

7 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

These are def bad news, and we are not even in February yet... really hope Feb just neutralizes and gives everyone a rest from this demonic winter we have had. 

Considering this cold inundation got off to an early start before even the middle of November. December didn’t even hit and we already had two nights in the 40’s. Absolutely nothing tropical about that.

I was planning on moving from Naples to the East Coast of FL, more so after this winter. I don’t even think Naples beat Port St Lucie tempwise. No wonder they are so reluctant to plant anything other than sabal, royals and foxtails.

[Merlyn]

I'd say their "new" USDA Zone Map is about to be proven hilariously wrong.  When it came out I wondered if anyone actually lived in the places where they arbitrarily drew the lines.  In the past I've always posted that I live in a "9B/9A borderline" area.  The current forecasting is for 2 nights at 27 at the airport, meaning probably 24-26ish for me:

The only advantage (if you can call it one) is that it's supposed to be fairly windy on Saturday night, so less chance of frost.  But in reality I'll probably get at least 5 or 6 straight nights of frost and sub-freezing temps.  For sure it's the coldest and longest duration forecasted cold front I've seen in my ~25 years in this house.  Everything else has been 1-3 days and then it's back to the 70s.

[aabell]

22 minutes ago, MarkC said:

Considering this cold inundation got off to an early start before even the middle of November. December didn’t even hit and we already had two nights in the 40’s. Absolutely nothing tropical about that.

I was planning on moving from Naples to the East Coast of FL, more so after this winter. I don’t even think Naples beat Port St Lucie tempwise. No wonder they are so reluctant to plant anything other than sabal, royals and foxtails.

I'm worried about next week too, but what exactly are you attempting to grow in Naples that's been hurt or killed by recent cold snaps? I've been in SWFL for over 7 years and only been below 35F in my yard maybe once. I've never lost a palm to cold, including a lot of 10B-11 stuff sitting out unprotected and in pots. Maybe the luck runs out this winter but I don't feel like we have a lot to complain about compared to the rest of the country. Just like anywhere in Florida your distance to water is almost as important as your latitude. 

Anyways, nights in the 40s here and there in the past have never been a problem as long as we warm back up. Which is what I was already worried about with this extended stretch. On top of that, as of today the models are for the first time hinting at a real freeze this weekend. Making some preparations today to bring orchids and seedlings inside for the duration.

And yes if nothing else we're about to see Adonidiageddon up and down the peninsula. 

[Looking Glass]

Mainstream outlets are now reporting temps in the mid-30s down this way.   That’s enough to cause damage and sometimes rare fatalities to various sensitive bromeliads and crotons I have.  Some of the potted ones I have will need to be put under the roof on the porch at least, where it’s noticeably warmer.    As always, duration makes all the difference.  One cold night is Ok.   Three in a row and I’ll see some damage.   Highs in the 50s three days in a row and there’s damage too.  
 

Coldest Temps on Record Fort Lauderdale:

Yearly Low Temps for Fort Lauderdale:

[Matthew92]

Winds are HOWLING here. Temperature peaking at a balmy 44deg. This arctic front is something else.

[flplantguy]

I wanted to see how my yard would do in major events, and I'm getting the gamut for the last 4 winters. Good data at least combined with Dec 2022.  Tonight after work will be interesting to see what I can protect with winds.  Some models are looking outlandish and I'm hoping the days between change that.  Only area to work on is the larger area under canopy, so I'm tempted to leave it but don't think I can make myself.

[idontknowhatnametuse]

16 hours ago, HudsonBill said:

Gfs same day...... they all show it. 

And I thought the next palmageddon would occur in California. Not in Florida.