florida 2025-2026 Florida Winter

[Matthew92]

Well yikes... Forecast here colder than I would have thought.

[flplantguy]

My front yard is going to be cactus now too, but I have found a few different interesting things for 9b cacti. Just a stone throw away it's fine and no damage, so the long term is moving a bit south. Yard is not happy, even the natives are dead in spots.  Greenhouse growing from here on out until the move. I also can't keep up with the size so downsizing the yard will be part of it.

[JLM]

Guidance has trended colder in the past 36 hours or so. 

This is shaping up to be a freeze for the Panhandle. NWS currently forecasting a low of 33F for Monday night. Looks like it may warm up pretty quickly after that before getting cool again to start the month of March.

Being cold in Florida multiple times during the winter season is not a new thing. Y'all have gotten lucky more than anything in the past decade down south. I would be grateful to live in the areas of central Florida thats been trashed on so much in this thread. I am still thankful to be located in NW FL, where many palms can be grown. Sometimes it pays to just be thankful for what you have instead of being upset about what you cant have.

My Queens are fried, my bizzy might not make it, my lady palm spear pulled, my washies are burnt, but... here is my super mule, looking like winter never happened:



For that, I am thankful. 

[flplantguy]

Take a look at plant diversity in Florida and you will see what I'm "trashing" Florida about. I actually very much appreciate the native diversity in North Florida and the deep south, and wouldn't bother with palms where you are.  Palms are not long term above I4 but who in the industry will say that? No one so they all come down here, rip out natives, and put in adonidias and coconut palms. If a little "trashing" of the Central Florida climate makes someone change their mind and leave some natives alone I'm a for it.  Come down to spring Hill and drive around and see what I mean. It's not a tropical paradise, and maybe the facts on this thread will make people wake up. I love many things I need more chill hours for that I can't grow either, so it's very much a challenge and why our agriculture also suffers.  I get it, the grass is greener on the other side, but facts are facts.

[HudsonBill]

2 hours ago, flplantguy said:

Take a look at plant diversity in Florida and you will see what I'm "trashing" Florida about. I actually very much appreciate the native diversity in North Florida and the deep south, and wouldn't bother with palms where you are.  Palms are not long term above I4 but who in the industry will say that? No one so they all come down here, rip out natives, and put in adonidias and coconut palms. If a little "trashing" of the Central Florida climate makes someone change their mind and leave some natives alone I'm a for it.  Come down to spring Hill and drive around and see what I mean. It's not a tropical paradise, and maybe the facts on this thread will make people wake up. I love many things I need more chill hours for that I can't grow either, so it's very much a challenge and why our agriculture also suffers.  I get it, the grass is greener on the other side, but facts are facts.

Its insane how many people move to the spring hill area and are absolutely blown away by how cold it gets. I have a buddy who moved to the area went through 1 winter and moved to st pete. The spring hill brookesville area isn't much better for palms than the panhandle 

[flplantguy]

16 minutes ago, HudsonBill said:

Its insane how many people move to the spring hill area and are absolutely blown away by how cold it gets. I have a buddy who moved to the area went through 1 winter and moved to st pete. The spring hill brookesville area isn't much better for palms than the panhandle 

In certain spots it's more dependable than the panhandle I think, so has its own unique opportunities, but once your north of SR 52 in Pasco it's a different world and look than to the south.  Inland is variable of course as you know.

My yard has a mix of northern trees like hickory and cedar, and stuff like Encyclia tampensis that won't survive in the panhandle. If you tolerate winter damage and summer issues there are some cool things that do well like triangle palms, but the soil is sand and better matches what is seen in desert climates at the same latitude.

I could imagine some humidity tolerant xeriscapes there that look more like Phoenix AZ, with some plants off the list due to invasive status.  Rock yards with weedmat and cacti are not the image that the tourism and home industry groups want though, and the experience of local "landscaping" companies is minimal and reflective of the wishes of a tropical paradise.  My hope is this commentary ends up in internet searches about the area, and people see that where you are here is almost as important as the microclimates in California.  We have such great opportunities as well as challenges, but a holistic approach is missing for most so here we are. 

[MarkC]

I should just get into forecasting, seems it’s pretty easy this winter season. The forecast models all overstate warmth and understate prevailing cold. You can see how much colder Naples is than Miami, and that’s not even comparing that good of a microclimate in Miami.

As for Naples, if you’re East of Livingston or i75 you may be seeing a few more nights in the 30’s in the third week of February. It’s kinda disillusioning that in the five years I’ve owned this home, 3/5 years we narrowly escaped frost/freezes.

I counted 21 freezes for Naples in the last century, which means just several miles inland that number is probably significantly higher. I’m currently looking for a home around Parkland, that will at least limit the amount of nights in the 40’s which Naples is littered with yearly, while East Coast locations manage to by and large, avoid the non-stop assault of cold.

It reminds me to something akin to Spring in NYC when those horrible wedge patterns settle in and it’s 46F in NYC and 82F in Philadelphia. 
 

 

[Palmarum]

More of it coming.

Ugh.

Ryan

[HudsonBill]

5 hours ago, MarkC said:

I should just get into forecasting, seems it’s pretty easy this winter season. The forecast models all overstate warmth and understate prevailing cold. You can see how much colder Naples is than Miami, and that’s not even comparing that good of a microclimate in Miami.

As for Naples, if you’re East of Livingston or i75 you may be seeing a few more nights in the 30’s in the third week of February. It’s kinda disillusioning that in the five years I’ve owned this home, 3/5 years we narrowly escaped frost/freezes.

I counted 21 freezes for Naples in the last century, which means just several miles inland that number is probably significantly higher. I’m currently looking for a home around Parkland, that will at least limit the amount of nights in the 40’s which Naples is littered with yearly, while East Coast locations manage to by and large, avoid the non-stop assault of cold.

It reminds me to something akin to Spring in NYC when those horrible wedge patterns settle in and it’s 46F in NYC and 82F in Philadelphia. 
 

 

Up here you can drive from coconuts thriving to temperatures in the teens within a 30 min drive. It is horrible. Goes from a 9a climate to a 10a in like 10 miles or less 

[kinzyjr]

This sheet is preliminary since a lot of the stations haven't reported their final numbers yet.  We do need something to refer to for the time being, so the attached sheet is the available numbers NOAA has compiled for the dates 01/30/2026 - 02/08/2026.  There are two sheets in the file - one that is mostly sanitized and the second sheet that has all of the available stations with any reports since the beginning of the year.  Sheets like this are how the impact freeze maps are created as well.

beta_Feb2026_AdvectiveFreeze.xlsx

[Hombre de Palmas]

Oh, Joy!

Mid-80s Sunday.  Mid-30s Monday.  Rinse.  Repeat.

I was just noticing some of the burnt Royals were already putting out new fronds, as was expected and hoped for. This will be a fine, "howdya do"? 

 

[flplantguy]

One thing I noticed about this winter is some of the models going doomish fast, and pretty much staying consistent well before the event, then proving true when most winters those outliers are safely disregarded.  Those models are saying a possible light freeze and frost in late February, which is completely possible here, so I expect that to pan out with water temps going up too. 85 yesterday and near 80 so far today, so hopefully that warms everything up for the usual quick drop and recovery.  Anyone that avoids a frost or freeze should be good until next fall I think 🤞.

[kinzyjr]

Another pair of nights we don't need:

 

[HudsonBill]

7 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Another pair of nights we don't need:

 

Ill be below freezing for sure. Everything's pushing new growth. It's all going to be set back again. 

[kinzyjr]

6 minutes ago, HudsonBill said:

Ill be below freezing for sure. Everything's pushing new growth. It's all going to be set back again. 

I'm figuring this will either finish off a few things that started shaking off the damage or just give me a reason to take it out before the plant sale next weekend so I can replace it with stuff I don't even think about over the winter.

[HudsonBill]

12 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

I'm figuring this will either finish off a few things that started shaking off the damage or just give me a reason to take it out before the plant sale next weekend so I can replace it with stuff I don't even think about over the winter.

After this year i don't care anymore I gave up on trying to grow mangos etc it does it dies. Honestly seeing how easy it freezes here and how early and late in the season it can freeze i reaky don't see what's keeping it from ever getting into the single digits or us having a big snowstorm. Where im from in Pennsylvania it was rare to get snow flurries before Thanksgiving. Like having a low below freezing isn't even that common before Thanksgiving but down here webhave a freeze in mid November. Up there this time of year it was hard ok get snowstorm to realy get snow to lay in the daytime cause of sun angle but down here it's gona get below freezing easy af.  Just makes no sense to me. Basicaky it's possibly to freeze here 6 months out of the year I alwaysvassumed I had about 2 months to realy worry about and it turns out it can freeze pretty much anytime between October and March. Wild. Like ive been saying california or miami are the best places to grow cool stuff. It's wild to me in California palms seem to be way more cold hardy like stuff that takes 28 there is dead here at 28. 

[HudsonBill]

7 hours ago, flplantguy said:

One thing I noticed about this winter is some of the models going doomish fast, and pretty much staying consistent well before the event, then proving true when most winters those outliers are safely disregarded.  Those models are saying a possible light freeze and frost in late February, which is completely possible here, so I expect that to pan out with water temps going up too. 85 yesterday and near 80 so far today, so hopefully that warms everything up for the usual quick drop and recovery.  Anyone that avoids a frost or freeze should be good until next fall I think 🤞.

 

[MarkC]

8 hours ago, flplantguy said:

One thing I noticed about this winter is some of the models going doomish fast, and pretty much staying consistent well before the event, then proving true when most winters those outliers are safely disregarded.  Those models are saying a possible light freeze and frost in late February, which is completely possible here, so I expect that to pan out with water temps going up too. 85 yesterday and near 80 so far today, so hopefully that warms everything up for the usual quick drop and recovery.  Anyone that avoids a frost or freeze should be good until next fall I think 🤞.

That’s right on the money, forecast models are moving into agreement with the veracity of cold. Temps are trending colder now. Naples city limits is forecast for two nights in the upper 30’s. I bet temps in Eastern Golden Gate will be colder than Orlando(I’ll be up there this weekend on business). 
 

Before we purchased this home, I read a lot of the warnings and info you guys posted on these forums regarding SW Florida and Naples in particular. I should have taken it more to heart, I assumed development and a warm epoch would be my savior. I didn’t realize how the cold sneaks in so pervasively in a large pocket not far from the Gulf. And this effect is triggered every time there is any cold front. That freeze line lingers perilously close nearly every year. Yes there’s plenty of heat down here, but I’m taken aback by how cold it does get.

[HudsonBill]

10 minutes ago, MarkC said:

That’s right on the money, forecast models are moving into agreement with the veracity of cold. Temps are trending colder now. Naples city limits is forecast for two nights in the upper 30’s. I bet temps in Eastern Golden Gate will be colder than Orlando(I’ll be up there this weekend on business). 
 

Before we purchased this home, I read a lot of the warnings and info you guys posted on these forums regarding SW Florida and Naples in particular. I should have taken it more to heart, I assumed development and a warm epoch would be my savior. I didn’t realize how the cold sneaks in so pervasively in a large pocket not far from the Gulf. And this effect is triggered every time there is any cold front. That freeze line lingers perilously close nearly every year. Yes there’s plenty of heat down here, but I’m taken aback by how cold it does get.

Crazy ain't? Makes no sense. Just like the sun angle next week will be the same as where I moved from in April/August when it's impossible to freeze up there but it can freeze here surrounded by warm water. 

[MarkC]

8 minutes ago, HudsonBill said:

Crazy ain't? Makes no sense. Just like the sun angle next week will be the same as where I moved from in April/August when it's impossible to freeze up there but it can freeze here surrounded by warm water. 

🥹 I guess physics aren’t our friends…

[D. Morrowii]

Old news I guess but here are my Merritt Island canal front stats for the worst of the cold blasts starting on the 31st. My main pole mounted sensor is not reading temps at the moment so I can’t just grab the easy graph. Had a couple more mornings in the 30s that followed this too.

Jan 31 

40 - 8:30pm,

35 - 10:30pm,

32.7 (L) 11:59pm,

 

Jan 31 Hours below 40 = 3.5, Hours below 35 =  1.5, Hours below freezing = 0

 

Feb 1

32.7 - 12:00am

32 - 12:30am, 

25.2 - 7:30,           (L)

32 - 10:00am, 

35 - 11:00am,

40 - 12:30pm, 

45 - 4:30pm,        (H) 

40 - 6:30, 

34.3 - 11:59pm,

 

Feb 1 Hours below 40 = 17, Hours below 35 = 11, Hours below freezing = 10 

 

Feb 2 

34.3 - 12:00am, 

32 - 2:00am, 

30.4 - 4:30am      (L), 

32 - 7:45am, 

35 - 8:30am, 

40 - 10:00am, 

54.9 4:30pm         (H), 

40 - 8:30, 

37.9  - 11:59pm. 

 

Feb 2 Hours below 40 = 13, Hours below 35 = 10.5, Hours below freezing = 6

 

Feb 3 

37.9 - 12:00am 

35 - 5:00am, 

33.1 - 6:30am      (L) 

35 - 7:30am

40 - 8:00am, 

62.2 - 2:00pm.     (H)

 

Feb 3rd Hours below 40 = 6.5, Hours below 35 = Hours below freezing = 0

 

40 deg total hours 40

35 deg total hours 25.5

32 deg total hours 16

[flplantguy]

A few things to note heading into a winter that makes it colder: drought (especially bad like this year), la Nina fading out (especially suddenly like this year), and a pattern that sets in somewhat early, and stays locked in for some time in late December or early January, with an outlier cold event in October (mid 30s in October 2022) or November like this year.  There are a bunch of warning signs to watch for but even then there are no guarantees.  We had the Trifecta and then some this winter, so it hit more heavily for most than last year, but for me one bad night each year was all it took to wipe out half the garden and set the rest back. Natives are struggling so you know it's bad for them, but they also "know" how to recover better than our beloved garden plants typically do.  These setbacks happen anywhere, but when you live on the edge of the yearly freeze line for some reason it hits harder.  Almost there!

[flplantguy]

2 hours ago, HudsonBill said:

 

When done right they can be stunning, just never like a jungle lol.  There is something to be said for the clean look too.  half my desert stuff fried, but some made it and will be able to recover hopefully.