florida 2025-2026 Florida Winter

[Matthew92]

Well yikes... Forecast here colder than I would have thought.

[flplantguy]

My front yard is going to be cactus now too, but I have found a few different interesting things for 9b cacti. Just a stone throw away it's fine and no damage, so the long term is moving a bit south. Yard is not happy, even the natives are dead in spots.  Greenhouse growing from here on out until the move. I also can't keep up with the size so downsizing the yard will be part of it.

[JLM]

Guidance has trended colder in the past 36 hours or so. 

This is shaping up to be a freeze for the Panhandle. NWS currently forecasting a low of 33F for Monday night. Looks like it may warm up pretty quickly after that before getting cool again to start the month of March.

Being cold in Florida multiple times during the winter season is not a new thing. Y'all have gotten lucky more than anything in the past decade down south. I would be grateful to live in the areas of central Florida thats been trashed on so much in this thread. I am still thankful to be located in NW FL, where many palms can be grown. Sometimes it pays to just be thankful for what you have instead of being upset about what you cant have.

My Queens are fried, my bizzy might not make it, my lady palm spear pulled, my washies are burnt, but... here is my super mule, looking like winter never happened:



For that, I am thankful. 

[flplantguy]

Take a look at plant diversity in Florida and you will see what I'm "trashing" Florida about. I actually very much appreciate the native diversity in North Florida and the deep south, and wouldn't bother with palms where you are.  Palms are not long term above I4 but who in the industry will say that? No one so they all come down here, rip out natives, and put in adonidias and coconut palms. If a little "trashing" of the Central Florida climate makes someone change their mind and leave some natives alone I'm a for it.  Come down to spring Hill and drive around and see what I mean. It's not a tropical paradise, and maybe the facts on this thread will make people wake up. I love many things I need more chill hours for that I can't grow either, so it's very much a challenge and why our agriculture also suffers.  I get it, the grass is greener on the other side, but facts are facts.

[HudsonBill]

2 hours ago, flplantguy said:

Take a look at plant diversity in Florida and you will see what I'm "trashing" Florida about. I actually very much appreciate the native diversity in North Florida and the deep south, and wouldn't bother with palms where you are.  Palms are not long term above I4 but who in the industry will say that? No one so they all come down here, rip out natives, and put in adonidias and coconut palms. If a little "trashing" of the Central Florida climate makes someone change their mind and leave some natives alone I'm a for it.  Come down to spring Hill and drive around and see what I mean. It's not a tropical paradise, and maybe the facts on this thread will make people wake up. I love many things I need more chill hours for that I can't grow either, so it's very much a challenge and why our agriculture also suffers.  I get it, the grass is greener on the other side, but facts are facts.

Its insane how many people move to the spring hill area and are absolutely blown away by how cold it gets. I have a buddy who moved to the area went through 1 winter and moved to st pete. The spring hill brookesville area isn't much better for palms than the panhandle 

[flplantguy]

16 minutes ago, HudsonBill said:

Its insane how many people move to the spring hill area and are absolutely blown away by how cold it gets. I have a buddy who moved to the area went through 1 winter and moved to st pete. The spring hill brookesville area isn't much better for palms than the panhandle 

In certain spots it's more dependable than the panhandle I think, so has its own unique opportunities, but once your north of SR 52 in Pasco it's a different world and look than to the south.  Inland is variable of course as you know.

My yard has a mix of northern trees like hickory and cedar, and stuff like Encyclia tampensis that won't survive in the panhandle. If you tolerate winter damage and summer issues there are some cool things that do well like triangle palms, but the soil is sand and better matches what is seen in desert climates at the same latitude.

I could imagine some humidity tolerant xeriscapes there that look more like Phoenix AZ, with some plants off the list due to invasive status.  Rock yards with weedmat and cacti are not the image that the tourism and home industry groups want though, and the experience of local "landscaping" companies is minimal and reflective of the wishes of a tropical paradise.  My hope is this commentary ends up in internet searches about the area, and people see that where you are here is almost as important as the microclimates in California.  We have such great opportunities as well as challenges, but a holistic approach is missing for most so here we are. 

[MarkC]

I should just get into forecasting, seems it’s pretty easy this winter season. The forecast models all overstate warmth and understate prevailing cold. You can see how much colder Naples is than Miami, and that’s not even comparing that good of a microclimate in Miami.

As for Naples, if you’re East of Livingston or i75 you may be seeing a few more nights in the 30’s in the third week of February. It’s kinda disillusioning that in the five years I’ve owned this home, 3/5 years we narrowly escaped frost/freezes.

I counted 21 freezes for Naples in the last century, which means just several miles inland that number is probably significantly higher. I’m currently looking for a home around Parkland, that will at least limit the amount of nights in the 40’s which Naples is littered with yearly, while East Coast locations manage to by and large, avoid the non-stop assault of cold.

It reminds me to something akin to Spring in NYC when those horrible wedge patterns settle in and it’s 46F in NYC and 82F in Philadelphia. 
 

 

[Palmarum]

More of it coming.

Ugh.

Ryan

[HudsonBill]

5 hours ago, MarkC said:

I should just get into forecasting, seems it’s pretty easy this winter season. The forecast models all overstate warmth and understate prevailing cold. You can see how much colder Naples is than Miami, and that’s not even comparing that good of a microclimate in Miami.

As for Naples, if you’re East of Livingston or i75 you may be seeing a few more nights in the 30’s in the third week of February. It’s kinda disillusioning that in the five years I’ve owned this home, 3/5 years we narrowly escaped frost/freezes.

I counted 21 freezes for Naples in the last century, which means just several miles inland that number is probably significantly higher. I’m currently looking for a home around Parkland, that will at least limit the amount of nights in the 40’s which Naples is littered with yearly, while East Coast locations manage to by and large, avoid the non-stop assault of cold.

It reminds me to something akin to Spring in NYC when those horrible wedge patterns settle in and it’s 46F in NYC and 82F in Philadelphia. 
 

 

Up here you can drive from coconuts thriving to temperatures in the teens within a 30 min drive. It is horrible. Goes from a 9a climate to a 10a in like 10 miles or less 

[kinzyjr]

This sheet is preliminary since a lot of the stations haven't reported their final numbers yet.  We do need something to refer to for the time being, so the attached sheet is the available numbers NOAA has compiled for the dates 01/30/2026 - 02/08/2026.  There are two sheets in the file - one that is mostly sanitized and the second sheet that has all of the available stations with any reports since the beginning of the year.  Sheets like this are how the impact freeze maps are created as well.

beta_Feb2026_AdvectiveFreeze.xlsx

[Hombre de Palmas]

Oh, Joy!

Mid-80s Sunday.  Mid-30s Monday.  Rinse.  Repeat.

I was just noticing some of the burnt Royals were already putting out new fronds, as was expected and hoped for. This will be a fine, "howdya do"? 

 

[flplantguy]

One thing I noticed about this winter is some of the models going doomish fast, and pretty much staying consistent well before the event, then proving true when most winters those outliers are safely disregarded.  Those models are saying a possible light freeze and frost in late February, which is completely possible here, so I expect that to pan out with water temps going up too. 85 yesterday and near 80 so far today, so hopefully that warms everything up for the usual quick drop and recovery.  Anyone that avoids a frost or freeze should be good until next fall I think 🤞.

[kinzyjr]

Another pair of nights we don't need:

 

[HudsonBill]

7 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Another pair of nights we don't need:

 

Ill be below freezing for sure. Everything's pushing new growth. It's all going to be set back again. 

[kinzyjr]

6 minutes ago, HudsonBill said:

Ill be below freezing for sure. Everything's pushing new growth. It's all going to be set back again. 

I'm figuring this will either finish off a few things that started shaking off the damage or just give me a reason to take it out before the plant sale next weekend so I can replace it with stuff I don't even think about over the winter.

[HudsonBill]

12 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

I'm figuring this will either finish off a few things that started shaking off the damage or just give me a reason to take it out before the plant sale next weekend so I can replace it with stuff I don't even think about over the winter.

After this year i don't care anymore I gave up on trying to grow mangos etc it does it dies. Honestly seeing how easy it freezes here and how early and late in the season it can freeze i reaky don't see what's keeping it from ever getting into the single digits or us having a big snowstorm. Where im from in Pennsylvania it was rare to get snow flurries before Thanksgiving. Like having a low below freezing isn't even that common before Thanksgiving but down here webhave a freeze in mid November. Up there this time of year it was hard ok get snowstorm to realy get snow to lay in the daytime cause of sun angle but down here it's gona get below freezing easy af.  Just makes no sense to me. Basicaky it's possibly to freeze here 6 months out of the year I alwaysvassumed I had about 2 months to realy worry about and it turns out it can freeze pretty much anytime between October and March. Wild. Like ive been saying california or miami are the best places to grow cool stuff. It's wild to me in California palms seem to be way more cold hardy like stuff that takes 28 there is dead here at 28. 

[HudsonBill]

7 hours ago, flplantguy said:

One thing I noticed about this winter is some of the models going doomish fast, and pretty much staying consistent well before the event, then proving true when most winters those outliers are safely disregarded.  Those models are saying a possible light freeze and frost in late February, which is completely possible here, so I expect that to pan out with water temps going up too. 85 yesterday and near 80 so far today, so hopefully that warms everything up for the usual quick drop and recovery.  Anyone that avoids a frost or freeze should be good until next fall I think 🤞.

 

[MarkC]

8 hours ago, flplantguy said:

One thing I noticed about this winter is some of the models going doomish fast, and pretty much staying consistent well before the event, then proving true when most winters those outliers are safely disregarded.  Those models are saying a possible light freeze and frost in late February, which is completely possible here, so I expect that to pan out with water temps going up too. 85 yesterday and near 80 so far today, so hopefully that warms everything up for the usual quick drop and recovery.  Anyone that avoids a frost or freeze should be good until next fall I think 🤞.

That’s right on the money, forecast models are moving into agreement with the veracity of cold. Temps are trending colder now. Naples city limits is forecast for two nights in the upper 30’s. I bet temps in Eastern Golden Gate will be colder than Orlando(I’ll be up there this weekend on business). 
 

Before we purchased this home, I read a lot of the warnings and info you guys posted on these forums regarding SW Florida and Naples in particular. I should have taken it more to heart, I assumed development and a warm epoch would be my savior. I didn’t realize how the cold sneaks in so pervasively in a large pocket not far from the Gulf. And this effect is triggered every time there is any cold front. That freeze line lingers perilously close nearly every year. Yes there’s plenty of heat down here, but I’m taken aback by how cold it does get.

[HudsonBill]

10 minutes ago, MarkC said:

That’s right on the money, forecast models are moving into agreement with the veracity of cold. Temps are trending colder now. Naples city limits is forecast for two nights in the upper 30’s. I bet temps in Eastern Golden Gate will be colder than Orlando(I’ll be up there this weekend on business). 
 

Before we purchased this home, I read a lot of the warnings and info you guys posted on these forums regarding SW Florida and Naples in particular. I should have taken it more to heart, I assumed development and a warm epoch would be my savior. I didn’t realize how the cold sneaks in so pervasively in a large pocket not far from the Gulf. And this effect is triggered every time there is any cold front. That freeze line lingers perilously close nearly every year. Yes there’s plenty of heat down here, but I’m taken aback by how cold it does get.

Crazy ain't? Makes no sense. Just like the sun angle next week will be the same as where I moved from in April/August when it's impossible to freeze up there but it can freeze here surrounded by warm water. 

[MarkC]

8 minutes ago, HudsonBill said:

Crazy ain't? Makes no sense. Just like the sun angle next week will be the same as where I moved from in April/August when it's impossible to freeze up there but it can freeze here surrounded by warm water. 

🥹 I guess physics aren’t our friends…

[D. Morrowii]

Old news I guess but here are my Merritt Island canal front stats for the worst of the cold blasts starting on the 31st. My main pole mounted sensor is not reading temps at the moment so I can’t just grab the easy graph. Had a couple more mornings in the 30s that followed this too.

Jan 31 

40 - 8:30pm,

35 - 10:30pm,

32.7 (L) 11:59pm,

 

Jan 31 Hours below 40 = 3.5, Hours below 35 =  1.5, Hours below freezing = 0

 

Feb 1

32.7 - 12:00am

32 - 12:30am, 

25.2 - 7:30,           (L)

32 - 10:00am, 

35 - 11:00am,

40 - 12:30pm, 

45 - 4:30pm,        (H) 

40 - 6:30, 

34.3 - 11:59pm,

 

Feb 1 Hours below 40 = 17, Hours below 35 = 11, Hours below freezing = 10 

 

Feb 2 

34.3 - 12:00am, 

32 - 2:00am, 

30.4 - 4:30am      (L), 

32 - 7:45am, 

35 - 8:30am, 

40 - 10:00am, 

54.9 4:30pm         (H), 

40 - 8:30, 

37.9  - 11:59pm. 

 

Feb 2 Hours below 40 = 13, Hours below 35 = 10.5, Hours below freezing = 6

 

Feb 3 

37.9 - 12:00am 

35 - 5:00am, 

33.1 - 6:30am      (L) 

35 - 7:30am

40 - 8:00am, 

62.2 - 2:00pm.     (H)

 

Feb 3rd Hours below 40 = 6.5, Hours below 35 = Hours below freezing = 0

 

40 deg total hours 40

35 deg total hours 25.5

32 deg total hours 16

[flplantguy]

A few things to note heading into a winter that makes it colder: drought (especially bad like this year), la Nina fading out (especially suddenly like this year), and a pattern that sets in somewhat early, and stays locked in for some time in late December or early January, with an outlier cold event in October (mid 30s in October 2022) or November like this year.  There are a bunch of warning signs to watch for but even then there are no guarantees.  We had the Trifecta and then some this winter, so it hit more heavily for most than last year, but for me one bad night each year was all it took to wipe out half the garden and set the rest back. Natives are struggling so you know it's bad for them, but they also "know" how to recover better than our beloved garden plants typically do.  These setbacks happen anywhere, but when you live on the edge of the yearly freeze line for some reason it hits harder.  Almost there!

[flplantguy]

2 hours ago, HudsonBill said:

 

When done right they can be stunning, just never like a jungle lol.  There is something to be said for the clean look too.  half my desert stuff fried, but some made it and will be able to recover hopefully.

[JLM]

8 hours ago, flplantguy said:

A few things to note heading into a winter that makes it colder: drought (especially bad like this year), la Nina fading out (especially suddenly like this year), and a pattern that sets in somewhat early, and stays locked in for some time in late December or early January, with an outlier cold event in October (mid 30s in October 2022) or November like this year.  There are a bunch of warning signs to watch for but even then there are no guarantees.  We had the Trifecta and then some this winter, so it hit more heavily for most than last year, but for me one bad night each year was all it took to wipe out half the garden and set the rest back. Natives are struggling so you know it's bad for them, but they also "know" how to recover better than our beloved garden plants typically do.  These setbacks happen anywhere, but when you live on the edge of the yearly freeze line for some reason it hits harder.  Almost there!

We have been stuck in a pattern of stretching polar vortex, no real displacement and no real SSW. Just stretched PVs since November. Something I've noticed about this winter is that the freezes I have had (something like 15) have all mostly been colder overall compared to previous seasons, getting down into the mid to upper 20s more frequently than just staying in the low 30s. I have also had little to no frost days where the temperature didn't drop below freezing.

The pocket of deep cold over Canada is going to continue to provide the threat of cold at least for NW FL for the next several weeks. I hope this is the last freeze event for all of us, but im sure I'll get another at least borderline cold snap before it's actually over with.

[flplantguy]

That's what I think/hope for, obviously march is still a problem, even here, but I'm thinking it will be just barely warm enough for the panhandle 🤞.  Can't get too confident though, especially after this winter.  Don't curse me please if I jinxed us!

[Las Palmas Norte]

1 hour ago, flplantguy said:

Don't curse me please if I jinxed us!

Jinxed. The old misguided philosophy or rationalization of random events/words effecting unrelated incidents. My wife has a gamblers fallacy and won't allow me to wish her luck when she leaves for the casino for fear of it being bad luck. 🤣

[JLM]

I think the landscape up here is gonna look very different here in just a couple of weeks. Expecting everything to come out at once instead of in stages. 

With the heat we have had this week, buds are expanding on just about every kind of tree, and its starting to become noticeable from the ground. River birch catkins are expanding and even getting some leaves coming out on those, red maples are living up to their names right now. Pears are starting to flower, and im also starting to see slight movement with the buds on the oaks too.

How is everything gonna do this week with the expected freeze? I dont know, hopefully everything will be okay. The forecasted low is 27F for Monday night. Looks to warm back up pretty quickly by the end of next week with lows back into the 50s.

Heres the red maple as of today:

[MarkC]

I stopped by Epcot today for a couple hours and Universal for about 90 minutes. The photos speak for themselves:

 

[kinzyjr]

For those of us on the I-4 corridor, going to be another flash cold spell after near-record heat.  After recording 90F twice, we get a cold snap.  Looks like possibly some showers at Plantae-palooza, but we'll know more by Friday.

There doesn't appear to be a lot of sheltered spots this go-round either.

The Orlando area should duck a freeze.

[MarkC]

Orlando and the surrounding area are under a freeze watch which is extending pretty far. The cold forecast for Naples is now a bit colder as is for Miami. I drove to Tampa to attend the Yankees Mets game, things in Tampa looked pretty decent considering, but right outside Tampa, stuff happened…

[Sabal_Louisiana]

Freezing down to Lake Okeechobee in late February, after seeing 20s earlier in the month?

It has been an odd season. 

[Hombre de Palmas]

I've been in Florida for a decade, which of course, is not long compared to many on the forum. I talk to my neighbor occasionally who is a gardener and is a Florida native. He has consistently shrugged off this season as an anomaly, with the refrain "well, it's Florida you know". He has lived in this neighborhood for 30 years so I listened carefully to what he had to say.

Yesterday he changed his tune.

Between wild temperature fluctuations, severe drought and another hurricane season quickly coming our way, with all of it's unknowns, he now believes that "things may have changed". One man's opinion, but...

We briefly reached 90°F yesterday at my house before dropping "down" into the upper 80s as the clouds rolled in. They are forecasting near freezing tonight and "patchy frost" Tuesday night. These temperature fluctuations are extremely damaging to the long term viability of agriculture and horticulture. The heat we experienced since the last extreme freeze has tempted new, sensitive growth on all manner of flora. Hopefully, this event will only cause minimal damage to that nascent recovery.

Climate change, as defined, is not just warming, but a series of extreme events. Hopefully this year is an anomaly.  Regardless, my days of tempting fate are over, as regards to temperature, wind speed and rainfall.  It's not like I really zone pushed either, since many of my zone 9 specimens are in terrible condition. My zone 10 specimens are on life support or dead, and I was supposedly in 10b.  It will be interesting to see how the broader agricultural and horticultural interests react over time.

Good luck to everyone over the next couple days. Back in the 80s by Thursday here.

[HudsonBill]

The first time all winter my low was higher than forecasted. Forecast was 40. It never got under 46. I hope the same happens tonight and tommorow night. 

[Hombre de Palmas]

Same here. Good Luck.

The models are not quite as dire as the NWS forecast, but I have been conditioned this year to prepare for the worst. My garden is mostly fried, but I will be hauling the potted stuff into the garage again for the next two nights anyway. But not all of it. I am too worn out.

[flplantguy]

Some of the powerful fronts and cold events in past decades were similar if you go back to the 80s and further.  I'm hoping it's a cycle and this is the harsh portion, based partly on the native plants and geographic history of the area during the last ice age.  The natives handle these events much better than exotics, so they had to be used to these sudden swings as they colonized and adapted (like palms as we keep the survivors' seeds).  Hopefully this year is the last in the pattern, but it is really just a roll of the dice in the end.  We need to create a shield that can be turned on to block the cold air when a front comes but this isn't Star Trek lol.

[Hombre de Palmas]

9 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

Some of the powerful fronts and cold events in past decades were similar if you go back to the 80s and further.  I'm hoping it's a cycle and this is the harsh portion, based partly on the native plants and geographic history of the area during the last ice age.  The natives handle these events much better than exotics, so they had to be used to these sudden swings as they colonized and adapted (like palms as we keep the survivors' seeds).  Hopefully this year is the last in the pattern, but it is really just a roll of the dice in the end.  We need to create a shield that can be turned on to block the cold air when a front comes but this isn't Star Trek lol.

Which is why I'm moving toward native plants. Mother nature just moved up the time schedule this year. I can't afford the irrigation and don't appreciate the yearly cycle of cold, drought and hurricanes. I have enough stress without adding needlessly to it. I enjoyed my tropical paradise while it lasted... but whaddya gonna do?

[pj_orlando_z9b]

25 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

Some of the powerful fronts and cold events in past decades were similar if you go back to the 80s and further.  I'm hoping it's a cycle and this is the harsh portion, based partly on the native plants and geographic history of the area during the last ice age.  The natives handle these events much better than exotics, so they had to be used to these sudden swings as they colonized and adapted (like palms as we keep the survivors' seeds).  Hopefully this year is the last in the pattern, but it is really just a roll of the dice in the end.  We need to create a shield that can be turned on to block the cold air when a front comes but this isn't Star Trek lol.

Most people in the world have no idea that cyclical climate patterns such as ocean circulation (e.g., PDO, AMO) and atmospheric shifts (e.g. NAO, La Niña) can persist for many years, even a decade. The alignment of these patterns has the Eastern US as the target of cold in the last several years.  I remember the 90s transitioned to a very cold West. I was in Seattle late 90s/early 2000s and they had lows in the low 20s. News was telling people how to protect pipes and plants.  I am also hopeful we are breaking this cycle but it is stubborn!

[flplantguy]

Carve out the most protected spot in the yard as the tropical stuff and make the backbone cold tolerant everywhere else is my plan. Good thing about cold events is they show you where those spots are if your looking.  I'm sure everyone is tired too by now and that doesn't help the outlook for the garden. Once things green up that will help brighten the mood too.  My front yard now is all brown, but if I stop to think about each plant many will come right back, and those that don't won't be replaced.  A big healthy blue agave sounds nice right about now lol.

[flplantguy]

I was in California for the 1990 freeze and remember it at a very young age.  Then some other big ones at that time later on growing up out west, culminating in thunder snow in NM in 2010 and then I left. Now its here lol.

[Hombre de Palmas]

My other complicating factor is that I'm aging out. I need to make changes now that facilitate simpler upkeep. I do not intend to pay anyone to either make the changes or do the upkeep. $$$$ and preferences.