UK Spring/Summer 2025 and wildfire season

[UK_Palms]

Bumping thread to next page…

[UK_Palms]

It has been an exceptionally dry and sunny spring so far. Some Environmental Agency stations haven’t even picked up 10mm of rainfall since late February (past 9-10 weeks)…

Driest UK stations this spring…

 

It has been a very sunny spring so far and we also had the sunniest spring on record for the UK, hence why it has also been so dry as well…

 

Consequently there has been a lot of wildfires since my last post over 2 weeks ago…

The grass is turning…

 

Hosepipe bans are being imposed in places…

Temperatures reached 29.3C at Kew Gardens in London last week and 29.2C at Wisley in Surrey near me. St James Park in London is offline and out of action for the foreseeable, otherwise I suspect it may have picked up closer to 30C.

Ireland broke its April temperature record as well the day before…

The outlook is fairly warm and extremely dry over the next 10-14 days with 25-26C for London by the weekend…

 

SST’s remain well above average around the UK and northwest Europe, likely due to the amplified high pressure in that area this spring. This could have knock on effects as we move into summer, either in terms of heat potential or precipitation intensities from any storms.

 

Here is the long range ECMWF summer forecast in terms of temperature and zonal height anomalies. It somewhat reminds me of the 2018 and 2022 summers…

 

[Foxpalms]

I don't know if we will see 40c temps this year but there is definitely the potential there though unlikely. I'd expect June, July and August to all be above average and dry. Hopefully the metoffice can get the st James park weather station online soon since VE day is finished. Hopefully those temporary public toilets are removed. 

Despite Iberia having a wet start to spring the humidity here is still very low in the 20-30%s most days. Any warmer 850hpa temps sent our way with clear skies should easily be able produce high 20c's+.

 

 

[UK_Palms]

Saint Helier is up to 585 hours of sunshine this spring now. Shoeburyness in Esssex is on 568 hours and London Heathrow is on 520 hours. Plenty more sun to come!

The drought is really tightening its grip on parts of England and Scotland now…

 

Humidity was down to 20% in London on Saturday afternoon…

 

Dunbar in Scotland has only registered 305mm / 12.0 inches of rainfall over the past 11 months, since 1st June 2024. That is getting on for a whole year on 12 inches of rain in a part of Scotland at lat 58N, with summer right ahead.

Scottish Rivers in bad shape…

 

Over 3 weeks now since any kind of measurable precipitation occurred in some parts of Scotland… combined with 12 inches of rainfall over 11 months…

Some places are experiencing their worst wildfires in over a quarter of a century. I think we are already closing in on the burned acreage that spring/summer 2022 saw, which is crazy…

 

Major Dust Devil in Manchester today…

Had 24.9C / 77F here today and expecting 27-28C / 80F in places on Sunday and Monday. It could also get very, very warm later this month…

[Mazat]

7 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Saint Helier is up to 585 hours of sunshine this spring now. Shoeburyness in Esssex is on 568 hours and London Heathrow is on 520 hours. Plenty more sun to come!

The drought is really tightening its grip on parts of England and Scotland now…

 

Humidity was down to 20% in London on Saturday afternoon…

 

Dunbar in Scotland has only registered 305mm / 12.0 inches of rainfall over the past 11 months, since 1st June 2024. That is getting on for a whole year on 12 inches of rain in a part of Scotland at lat 58N, with summer right ahead.

Scottish Rivers in bad shape…

 

Over 3 weeks now since any kind of measurable precipitation occurred in some parts of Scotland… combined with 12 inches of rainfall over 11 months…

Some places are experiencing their worst wildfires in over a quarter of a century. I think we are already closing in on the burned acreage that spring/summer 2022 saw, which is crazy…

 

Major Dust Devil in Manchester today…

Had 24.9C / 77F here today and expecting 27-28C / 80F in places on Sunday and Monday. It could also get very, very warm later this month…

i really hope it rains constantly with you. bad, bad these fires and this drought.

i also prefer warm temperatures, like you Ben, but rain in between helps people and nature.

oh yes, today is Mother's Day.

So have a nice day everyone including everyone else 🤗😄

[Foxpalms]

1 hour ago, Mazat said:

i really hope it rains constantly with you. bad, bad these fires and this drought.

i also prefer warm temperatures, like you Ben, but rain in between helps people and nature.

oh yes, today is Mother's Day.

So have a nice day everyone including everyone else 🤗😄

We might get lucky and get some rain tomorrow from a forecasted thunderstorm. However there's only a 50% chance of rain at the moment. At the most it will be 2-4mm so still on track for the driest spring on record.

[UK_Palms]

14 hours ago, Mazat said:

i really hope it rains constantly with you. bad, bad these fires and this drought.

i also prefer warm temperatures, like you Ben, but rain in between helps people and nature.

oh yes, today is Mother's Day.

So have a nice day everyone including everyone else 🤗😄

Yes, we desperately need some rain. There are places here that are on 10-12mm / 0.4 inches for the entire spring and 60mm / 2 inches for the entirety of 2025 so far! Quite a few places are going to have their driest spring, as well as the driest first half of a year on record.

It wouldn’t be so much of a problem if we were heading into autumn and it was say September or October, since it would inevitably get cooler and wetter. But we are heading into summer next month. This will probably get a lot worse. It will certainly be getting warmer and the chances of a hydrological drought will increase in the weeks ahead…

 

12 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

We might get lucky and get some rain tomorrow from a forecasted thunderstorm. However there's only a 50% chance of rain at the moment. At the most it will be 2-4mm so still on track for the driest spring on record.

2-4mm is wishful thinking. Most places won’t see a drop. Some southern and central areas may get lucky and cop up to 5mm from a thunderstorm stalling overhead, but for most of us it will be less than 1mm, if anything at all. And the most drought stricken areas aren’t really forecast to get anything i.e. southeast Scotland and eastern England. I can’t see London picking up anything either really. As of 11pm a few stations have picked up 1mm in places.

St James Park in London on 21mm / 0.8 inches this spring. Heathrow on 23mm / 0.9 inches. I expect both to gain 1-2mm maybe tonight and tomorrow…

 

So I was looking at some PWS’s in southwest Scotland and some are surviving on 60mm / 2 inches of rainfall for the whole of 2025 so far. And we are approaching the halfway point of the year now. So that is an average of about 10mm / 0.38 inches a month this year out to May 11th. I have attached a PWS near Cockburnspath, Scotland showing this year’s totals…

 

January…

 

February…

 

March…

 

April…

 

May…

 

COCKBURNSPATH, SCOTLAND 2025 RAINFALL…

January - 39.36mm / 1.549 inches

February - 15.24mm / 0.601 inches

March - 6.09mm / 0.239 inches

April - 5.33mm / 0.209 inches

May - 0.76mm / 0.029 inches

SPRING TOTAL - 12.18mm / 0.47 inches

2025 TOTAL - 66.78mm / 2.62 inches

ECM has no rain for the next 16 days for that area and almost all of Scotland actually. They are going to finish spring on half an inch of rain and the first 5 months of 2025 on 2.6 inches… 😬

Fire crews stretched to their limits in places with two separate railways damaged from wildfires in Scotland…

 

A few degrees cooler than Sunday’s 26C and a chance of a thunderstorm too tomorrow (Monday) afternoon…

[UK_Palms]

An update on the drought situation…

 

The Met Office station at Middle Wallop has only had 12% of its spring rainfall this season and is on 19.8mm / 0.78 inches for the entire season as of 19/05. The lowest on record for spring at that site is 51.6mm in 1990.

 

St James Park in London needs 17.5mm over the next 11 days to prevent it being the driest spring on record at that site. The current total for spring is 21.8mm / 0.85 inches there.

Heathrow needs 17.2mm of rainfall in the next 11 days to avoid recording its driest spring on record. The seasonal total stands at 23.4mm / 0.92 inches there currently. Not a drop in May so far yet.

Here are the river flow charts for April. Many of them are showing exceptionally low flow and some are at record low levels for the time of year. Obviously it has worsened even more over the past 3 weeks or so…

Particularly bad fires in Ireland this spring. They might be having their worst ever wildfire period. A load more houses were evacuated on Sunday evening as the fires closed in…

After 24C / 75F tomorrow (Tuesday), a change is coming. Cooler temps, with clouds and some rain. Certainly more unsettled than of late. I suspect London will pick up another 10mm between now and June. We will see.

 

Looking ahead, it should revert back to high pressure dominance with the possibility of very warm or hot weather in early June. A cut off low to the east of Iberia, as shown on the latest GFS, would drag up some very warm air from North Africa. We would be seeing 30’s C / 85F+ from that.