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Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?


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Posted

@Xenondon't rain on my Bismarck parade!  I'm from the PNW so I am the king of delayed damage, let me have this small victory for now.

Ok, so I was literally all over Houston this weekend and paid attention to palms and gardens in my travels.  I was up in Willis, out towards Katy and in inner Houston.  So I did not see one bronzed or damaged palm anywhere, and I saw thousands of palms.  The dianella and Asparagus ferns were crispy in a lot of places though.  So it looks like the damage wasn't as bad this year as last year.  I did see about a hundred P. sylvestris and some tips had browning, but I'm not sure if that was there before.  Washies, Sabals, Chamaerops and Butia all looked great.  So at that point the only damaged palms I had seen were my own.  However coming home late Saturday a house about 5 down from me has mature Washies and they were damaged too.  I can only conclude that the further east you went the worse the damage, and I am as far east as you can get with a Houston address.  So maybe in Pasadena and Baytown they saw damage too.

Friday morning I sprayed all palms, damaged or not with Copper fungicide.  The HomeDepot a few minutes from my house was sold out, even though they were showing inventory.  I ended up going to the Atascocita Lowes to get some and they had lots.  Read into that what you want.

Now for the rundown at my place.  Note everything was planted in 2024 so I don't think anything is truly established.

All Washingtonia major burn to all but the newest spear.

Needle palms, Trachys, Butia, Sabal uresana, Sabal palmetto Lisa, Serenoa repens, Sabal birmingham, Chamaedorea radicalis, BxJ all good for now.

Sabal Riverside - Burn to most of the fronds of the larger one.  The smaller one has minimal spotting on older fronds

Queens (all protected)  - Two Regular have damage to all fronds, spears look ok, Silver queen all fronds damaged, spear looks ok.  Santa catarina (small) major freeze drying, not sure about the spear but looks ok right now.

Hybrid Livistona - all brown, but green at the base of the spear
Sagos are all showing burn now, I expect it to progress.

Bonus kills - Orange bird of paradise, Oleander fried at my place, but looked good everywhere else in the Houston area, all mangave, agave, duranta, barbados cherry

It's almost total devastation at my place, between the tropical shrubs, palms and tender perennials. The 10 feet of rain yesterday was just adding insult to injury, I have standing water in most places.  My garden beds are all raised so the plants aren't sitting in it.  I'm feeling pretty defeated if I'm honest, its like only zone 6 hardy plants survived without protection.  Aside from the few green palms in my backyard, all that looks ok at this point are the Banana shrubs(Magnolia/Michaelia), Texas mountain laurel, Yuccas and Sunshine ligustrum.  I'm surprised my live oaks didn't get damaged at this point.

More rain is predicted this week which is terrible after damage like this.  On the weekend I'm going to go and cut back all the soft perennials and anything woody I'll leave to see what happens in the next couple of months.

 

  • Like 6
Posted
On 1/21/2025 at 2:41 PM, ahosey01 said:

Yeah there are quite a few washingtonias up there.  Have also seen trachycarpus and a sabal if I remember correctly.  Mostly Washingtonia filifera.  They're native to an area like 60-70 miles southwest from there.

Sadly the park ranges are falsely claiming they're invasive and removing them from parks in the Great Basin area.

  • Like 1
Posted
6 minutes ago, Chester B said:

@Xenondon't rain on my Bismarck parade!  I'm from the PNW so I am the king of delayed damage, let me have this small victory for now.

Sorry to hear about all the damage. NW Houston actually won the lottery this time around when it's usually the coldest part of town. A very very weird cold event for sure, probably the first of its kind in modern history? 

I'm cautiously optimistic about my Bismarckia. All it got was a blanket over the top on the final super cold night when the winds finally died down. Hopefully it was enough to slow the heat loss. 

Queens were not protected. I'm excited to see what happens to them...all in good health/growing vigorously up to the event. Put a box/bucket over a small Lytocaryum hoehnei and Livistona nitida which are both undamaged for now. Excited to see how the citrus fare too.

All tropical stuff is melted/rotting but should come back from ground level 

IMG_20250127_1538013.thumb.jpg.d304a47c2d6c87485a3e562dbe7482f4.jpg

 

PXL_20250119_194530907_MP2.thumb.jpg.49a818f6998ee647087edbc0c3b65127.jpg

 

  • Like 3

Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

Posted

@Xenon your Bismarckia looks great.

I had three citrus in ground.  All three protected with frost cloth wrapped at the base over the graft area and then a Frost cloth bag over top and held down with bricks to prevent air getting in.

Meyer lemon - Totally burnt, the leaves are all brown, branches still green

Cara Cara orange - Everything is green, but newest branches are floppy and leaves are green and rubbery for the most part.

Silverhill Satsuma - Looks fine right now.

Key lime was put in the garage so its fine too.

  • Like 2
Posted
17 minutes ago, Chester B said:

@Xenon your Bismarckia looks great.

 

Yeah that's the day before all the cold started 🤣 

The satsumas look fine for now. It's too early to tell for the other citrus but so far doesn't look like near mortal damage like last year. Orange Frost didn't suffer any real branch dieback last year (but defoliated), and looks flawless with stiff healthy leaves this time around.  No protection, it's live or die haha 

  • Like 2

Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

Posted
On 1/25/2025 at 8:25 PM, Subtropical LIS said:

I'm gald you said this. I had a feeling this poster was not who she/he said they were.  There seems to be a great deal of anti-American sentiment/ jealously from certain posters.

Not only is much of what is said climatically greatly exaggerated (or incorrect) – but it’s ridiculous to characterize a climate by 72 hrs of weather – and ignore the other 362 days a year – lol. While there can be cold snaps on occasion in the southern USA, with so much heat, sunshine, and (in the subtropical areas) plentiful rainfall…palms and subtropical recover swiftly. That’s the reason that cities like Houston and New Orleans are such good climates for growing these plants.  

In terms of record lows, the southeast USA is not that much different from cities on the mainland of subtropical Aisa. Shanghai located at 31 north has a record low of 10 F…. not much different than Jacksonville, Fl (7 F) and Houston, TX (5 F) near the same latitude. On the other hand, due to the stronger Asian winter monsoon (seasonal reversal of winds) …most cities in the American subtropics are WARMER than their east Asian counterpart near the same latitude. Shanghai (31 north) has a mean January mean temp of 40 F….14 F lower than Jacksonville, FL (54 F) and 11 F lower than Mobile, AL (51 F). Different time periods point colder than normal weather above the tropics to a different area. 3 years ago it snowed on the French Riveria, subtropical India had snow a few years back. Only tropical areas (below 23 latitude) are frost/freeze free.

The comparison to temperate Europe is even more ridiculous. In the south we see temperatures in the 70’s at times in January and February…European cities like London don’t see their first 70 F Day on average until mid-June. Look at growing degree days (GDD) Houston averages 7000 annually – London 850. A palm in the subtropical southeast will grow 7 times faster than one in temperate Europe.  

I admit I got a little silly, when I saw the line about broadleaved evergreens, there are 30 to 40 native BLE in the south in certain areas (and 80 to 100 in parts of Florida). In the UK…there are 4 native BLE. 95% of the native vegetation in northwest Europe is hemi-boreal. It's so silly to compare the southern USA and temperate Europe.

 

supar1.jpg.f4b82c515483d9ab27d31d5c5df8bda9.jpg

 

Our summers are Tropical long and HOT n' HUMID winters are mild and rainfall all year snow on occasion highs usually 40s-50s during coldest month very good climate for growing anything like anything anything lol (Except for tropical plants which can grow in deep south subtropics not here though), coconuts and.. California fan palms LOL

  • Like 1

-Cfa- Humid Subtropical Hot Summers Mild Winters- in Lexington and Kissimmee __ -Cfb- Subtropical Highland Warm Summers Mild Winters- in SW VA

-Lexington KY Palms: In ground (4)-Musa Basjoo (2)-Majesty Palms (1)-Pindo palm (20+)-Sabal minor mccurtain  The pindo and majesty will be protected when needed.

-Kissimmee FL whew (3)-Majesty Palms (3)-Bottle Palms (4)-Foxtail Palms (1)-Sabal Palmetto (1)-Clump of Bird of Paradise

-Recent Lows -6F/25'__-1.8F/24'__17.8F/23'__-5.2F/22'__9.2F/21' (Lexington) We have been having tough winters lately.

Posted
On 1/23/2025 at 4:36 PM, MarcusH said:

Before I moved to the U.S. from Germany 3 years ago I've noticed our winters getting colder at their ultimate lows about 5 years before I moved.  The snow came back so did the very cold temperatures.  I see the same pattern happening over here. 

I certainly don't believe in any kind of computer model that predicts weather months ahead. Looking a few days ahead gives me a better picture and enough time to prepare. 

Since the South got hammered by a Palmaggedon type of storm, again,  me personally if you are the type of leaving your palms unprotected I can only suggest to look into palms like Sabals. They might be more expensive and slow growing but it will pay off at the end. If we keep getting cold winters below 20f most pinnate palms burn their fronds and will not look good for the most part of the year. I think with Sabal palms you have a nice looking palm that will stay evergreen like a pine tree.  The Queen palms in the northern Gulf states will vanish like a ghost sooner or later. It's just too cold . I also wouldn't recommend Washingtonia Robusta.  Too iffy in my opinion.  I know the Washingtonia filifera might be a good alternative but I'm not so sure I would recommend them east of Texas due to high humidity.  This is only a suggestion if you don't want to go through the yearly hassle protecting your palms and all that.  

Outlooks are actually staggeringly right! (Not models that predict exact temps months out) we are still predicting above average temps from jan to march which yeah jan was cold but doesn't mean feb won't be and march now models that predict exact temp months ahead nope not accurate at all LOL but long-term outlooks are the most accurate (Not models of course) these outlooks are made with obs. and computer models for mesoscale long-term forecasting. (Mesoscale on the scale of the US)

  • Like 1

-Cfa- Humid Subtropical Hot Summers Mild Winters- in Lexington and Kissimmee __ -Cfb- Subtropical Highland Warm Summers Mild Winters- in SW VA

-Lexington KY Palms: In ground (4)-Musa Basjoo (2)-Majesty Palms (1)-Pindo palm (20+)-Sabal minor mccurtain  The pindo and majesty will be protected when needed.

-Kissimmee FL whew (3)-Majesty Palms (3)-Bottle Palms (4)-Foxtail Palms (1)-Sabal Palmetto (1)-Clump of Bird of Paradise

-Recent Lows -6F/25'__-1.8F/24'__17.8F/23'__-5.2F/22'__9.2F/21' (Lexington) We have been having tough winters lately.

Posted
4 hours ago, Xenon said:

Sorry to hear about all the damage. NW Houston actually won the lottery this time around when it's usually the coldest part of town. A very very weird cold event for sure, probably the first of its kind in modern history? 

I'm cautiously optimistic about my Bismarckia. All it got was a blanket over the top on the final super cold night when the winds finally died down. Hopefully it was enough to slow the heat loss. 

Queens were not protected. I'm excited to see what happens to them...all in good health/growing vigorously up to the event. Put a box/bucket over a small Lytocaryum hoehnei and Livistona nitida which are both undamaged for now. Excited to see how the citrus fare too.

All tropical stuff is melted/rotting but should come back from ground level 

IMG_20250127_1538013.thumb.jpg.d304a47c2d6c87485a3e562dbe7482f4.jpg

 

PXL_20250119_194530907_MP2.thumb.jpg.49a818f6998ee647087edbc0c3b65127.jpg

 

im guessing you know this variety and or grow it but try artic frost satsuma can HANDLE 15F no damage usually TheMillenialGardener grows his on the southeastern coast of NC 8B (Basically 8a) he gets 50s and sometimes 40s through the fruiting season when nights get below 29 or so i think he puts some c9 christmas lights under it cover it with a frost cloth and it does fine! then after all the fruit is gone he just leaves it to deal with the winter unless it gets really cold! He also grows a meyer lemon using the same very light protection and is growing limequats against a wood fence Heating is a black barrel which seems to protect it well enough) He also grows dwarf orinoco bananas (mulch trunks) and figs (No protection lol) The Millennial Gardener - YouTube 

  • Like 2

-Cfa- Humid Subtropical Hot Summers Mild Winters- in Lexington and Kissimmee __ -Cfb- Subtropical Highland Warm Summers Mild Winters- in SW VA

-Lexington KY Palms: In ground (4)-Musa Basjoo (2)-Majesty Palms (1)-Pindo palm (20+)-Sabal minor mccurtain  The pindo and majesty will be protected when needed.

-Kissimmee FL whew (3)-Majesty Palms (3)-Bottle Palms (4)-Foxtail Palms (1)-Sabal Palmetto (1)-Clump of Bird of Paradise

-Recent Lows -6F/25'__-1.8F/24'__17.8F/23'__-5.2F/22'__9.2F/21' (Lexington) We have been having tough winters lately.

Posted
5 hours ago, Chester B said:

Now for the rundown at my place.  Note everything was planted in 2024 so I don't think anything is truly established.

Yeah, I was worried about that not helping. I assume you didn't have many lighter freezer earlier as well? Were some palms still actively growing?
 

5 hours ago, Chester B said:

All Washingtonia major burn to all but the newest spear.

Needle palms, Trachys, Butia, Sabal uresana, Sabal palmetto Lisa, Serenoa repens, Sabal birmingham, Chamaedorea radicalis, BxJ all good for now.

Sabal Riverside - Burn to most of the fronds of the larger one.  The smaller one has minimal spotting on older fronds

I went down to 16 and I'll likely have total defoliation (with protection) of my Washies. My Riverside showed no signs of damage. 
 

5 hours ago, Chester B said:

Sagos are all showing burn now, I expect it to progress.

That's my mark of a bad winter. When I first moved here, I was told by gardeners that Sagos would defoliate about once every 3 years. Well, its pretty much been every year. So frustrating, as cycads are snails! On the upside, some cycads look great with cold damage: 

image.thumb.jpeg.d1ff8aaebf83a5885a78d1a73d541732.jpeg

5 hours ago, Chester B said:

Bonus kills - Orange bird of paradise, Oleander fried at my place, but looked good everywhere else in the Houston area, all mangave, agave, duranta, barbados cherry

These have all returned for me from worse from roots so please don't give up on these yet!
 

5 hours ago, Chester B said:

It's almost total devastation at my place, between the tropical shrubs, palms and tender perennials. The 10 feet of rain yesterday was just adding insult to injury, I have standing water in most places.  My garden beds are all raised so the plants aren't sitting in it.  I'm feeling pretty defeated if I'm honest, its like only zone 6 hardy plants survived without protection.  Aside from the few green palms in my backyard, all that looks ok at this point are the Banana shrubs(Magnolia/Michaelia), Texas mountain laurel, Yuccas and Sunshine ligustrum.  I'm surprised my live oaks didn't get damaged at this point.

More rain is predicted this week which is terrible after damage like this.  On the weekend I'm going to go and cut back all the soft perennials and anything woody I'll leave to see what happens in the next couple of months.

Cruel! 
:(
I hear ya. I am glad I mound most of my plants and have clear ways for the water to get off the property. Lucky, I didn't get as much rain as predicted these days but we're due for a deluge on Thursday. I am considering protecting the spear with some cloth but I am honestly so exhausted from these exercises year after year! Luckily I still had some fungicide (I got the concentrated stuff, so it can make tens of bottles). 

Lets hope the rain gods are kind to us...

  • Like 2
Posted
On 1/23/2025 at 3:22 PM, Robbertico18 said:

Please keep updating the kings, I have two in a pot I’d like to plant out and inevitably protect 

so here is an update on my king. It is pushing and the spear is hard (not pulling). It went down to 20.2 F on my yard. Thermometer is about 3 feet from the palm. I only covered it with a bedsheet. I did mulch the bottom part but it doesnt go up to the growing point. I think the mulch created a bit of a heat source that stayed inside the covering. Not sure how many degrees but it was an easy cover. Took less than 10 minutes. Just use an old bedsheet and wrap it with tape...

IMG_6807.jpeg

  • Like 5
Posted
20 hours ago, Palmerr said:

im guessing you know this variety and or grow it but try artic frost satsuma can HANDLE 15F no damage usually TheMillenialGardener grows his on the southeastern coast of NC 8B (Basically 8a) he gets 50s and sometimes 40s through the fruiting season when nights get below 29 or so i think he puts some c9 christmas lights under it cover it with a frost cloth and it does fine! then after all the fruit is gone he just leaves it to deal with the winter unless it gets really cold! He also grows a meyer lemon using the same very light protection and is growing limequats against a wood fence Heating is a black barrel which seems to protect it well enough) He also grows dwarf orinoco bananas (mulch trunks) and figs (No protection lol) The Millennial Gardener - YouTube 

I planted an arctic frost satsuma early summer, didn't protect it at all though this cold event.  no leaf drop yet but it has some yellowing of leaves 

  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Robbertico18 said:

I planted an arctic frost satsuma early summer, didn't protect it at all though this cold event.  no leaf drop yet but it has some yellowing of leaves 

when they are young you prob should protect it from any frost/freeze like goes below 32 protect that mf or else! if its too bad that thing gon' die lol

  • Like 1

-Cfa- Humid Subtropical Hot Summers Mild Winters- in Lexington and Kissimmee __ -Cfb- Subtropical Highland Warm Summers Mild Winters- in SW VA

-Lexington KY Palms: In ground (4)-Musa Basjoo (2)-Majesty Palms (1)-Pindo palm (20+)-Sabal minor mccurtain  The pindo and majesty will be protected when needed.

-Kissimmee FL whew (3)-Majesty Palms (3)-Bottle Palms (4)-Foxtail Palms (1)-Sabal Palmetto (1)-Clump of Bird of Paradise

-Recent Lows -6F/25'__-1.8F/24'__17.8F/23'__-5.2F/22'__9.2F/21' (Lexington) We have been having tough winters lately.

Posted

FWIW sabal Bermudana was unblemished by 16f and a foot of snow!

  • Like 4
Posted
On 1/27/2025 at 9:02 PM, Swolte said:

Yeah, I was worried about that not helping. I assume you didn't have many lighter freezer earlier as well? Were some palms still actively growing?

Before this main event we went to 30F three nights this year.  I would say none of the palms were actively growing, well maybe the Washingtonia but they had so many fronds its tough to tell.  I know the Sabals have all but stopped since some time in December.  

I actually wasn't expecting as much damage as I've seen.  I figured only one cold night with a rebound the next day wouldn't be so bad.  I didn't get fungicide in advance, it slipped my mind so I had to run out and a get a bottle of it, and pretty much blew through it with one application.  I usually have the concentrated one around, you've just reminded me to order it.

  • Like 2
Posted
18 hours ago, Palmerr said:

when they are young you prob should protect it from any frost/freeze like goes below 32 protect that mf or else! if its too bad that thing gon' die lol

We’ll see 

  • Like 1
Posted
22 hours ago, Robbertico18 said:

We’ll see 

Well lets say less than 5 gal size it 100% will die with maybe 25 or so if its half a year in the ground nevermind but yeah when young those things are a lot less hardy

  • Like 1

-Cfa- Humid Subtropical Hot Summers Mild Winters- in Lexington and Kissimmee __ -Cfb- Subtropical Highland Warm Summers Mild Winters- in SW VA

-Lexington KY Palms: In ground (4)-Musa Basjoo (2)-Majesty Palms (1)-Pindo palm (20+)-Sabal minor mccurtain  The pindo and majesty will be protected when needed.

-Kissimmee FL whew (3)-Majesty Palms (3)-Bottle Palms (4)-Foxtail Palms (1)-Sabal Palmetto (1)-Clump of Bird of Paradise

-Recent Lows -6F/25'__-1.8F/24'__17.8F/23'__-5.2F/22'__9.2F/21' (Lexington) We have been having tough winters lately.

Posted
7 hours ago, Palmerr said:

Well lets say less than 5 gal size it 100% will die with maybe 25 or so if its half a year in the ground nevermind but yeah when young those things are a lot less hardy

I planted its sibling Orange Frost as a 3 gallon and just three months after planting, it experienced being covered in ice and 17F. Dropped all of its leaves but no major damage otherwise, leafed out like normal. Just went through 19F last week with no damage. 

Google and YouTube are mostly wrong when it comes to plant hardiness imo. Citrus used to be one of the most common fruit trees in Houston and grew here for 30 years making tons of fruit each year. The citrus here survived some dips into the teens with varying damage but most "normal" citrus like mandarins, oranges, grapefruit, etc can be grown here. Only the limes and most lemons are a lot more tender. 

  • Like 3

Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

Posted

It looks like my young Arctic Frost, first winter in the ground, will lose all its leaves but stems still look green. Mine looked more battered then that of my friends' (who doesn't bare root them)

  • Like 1
Posted

Meanwhile, the Riverwalk queens are fine.  Now if you'll excuse me I have to go tend to my brown Filabusta in League City.

20250130_192935.jpg

  • Like 5
Posted
22 hours ago, Xenon said:

I planted its sibling Orange Frost as a 3 gallon and just three months after planting, it experienced being covered in ice and 17F. Dropped all of its leaves but no major damage otherwise, leafed out like normal. Just went through 19F last week with no damage. 

Google and YouTube are mostly wrong when it comes to plant hardiness imo. Citrus used to be one of the most common fruit trees in Houston and grew here for 30 years making tons of fruit each year. The citrus here survived some dips into the teens with varying damage but most "normal" citrus like mandarins, oranges, grapefruit, etc can be grown here. Only the limes and most lemons are a lot more tender. 

Well, ofc it's a 3 gallon lol not a seedling!! oh that's it! it won't kill it, it will just set it back!

  • Like 1

-Cfa- Humid Subtropical Hot Summers Mild Winters- in Lexington and Kissimmee __ -Cfb- Subtropical Highland Warm Summers Mild Winters- in SW VA

-Lexington KY Palms: In ground (4)-Musa Basjoo (2)-Majesty Palms (1)-Pindo palm (20+)-Sabal minor mccurtain  The pindo and majesty will be protected when needed.

-Kissimmee FL whew (3)-Majesty Palms (3)-Bottle Palms (4)-Foxtail Palms (1)-Sabal Palmetto (1)-Clump of Bird of Paradise

-Recent Lows -6F/25'__-1.8F/24'__17.8F/23'__-5.2F/22'__9.2F/21' (Lexington) We have been having tough winters lately.

Posted

I drove down to Texas city today and saw bronzed Washingtonia starting around Baybrook mall and all the way into Texas City.  Not terrible but I could see it while on I45. Once in Texas city the smaller palms were more affected. Plenty looked fine but some had bronzing. Most of the dactylifera and sylvestris looked decent with some showing some browning of partial fronds. Queens were burnt but green near the spear. Livistona chinensis, Butia, Mules, Chamaerops, Trachys, CIDP and Sabals all fine. Saw this one interesting small Phoenix that was somewhat burnt. 

IMG_1219.jpeg

IMG_1215.jpeg

  • Like 8
Posted
23 hours ago, Chester B said:

I drove down to Texas city today and saw bronzed Washingtonia starting around Baybrook mall and all the way into Texas City.  Not terrible but I could see it while on I45. Once in Texas city the smaller palms were more affected. Plenty looked fine but some had bronzing. Most of the dactylifera and sylvestris looked decent with some showing some browning of partial fronds. Queens were burnt but green near the spear. Livistona chinensis, Butia, Mules, Chamaerops, Trachys, CIDP and Sabals all fine. Saw this one interesting small Phoenix that was somewhat burnt. 

IMG_1219.jpeg

IMG_1215.jpeg

Those queens look great. Y'all did a lot better in Houston than us in Louisiana.  It was wild. But! Looking around Lake Charles I don't think any of the washingtonia are going to die. They all seem to have green centers. They said it went down to 8 or 10 degrees. But since it was for such a short time maybe the damage you would expect isn't going to happen? Or maybe they'll all die who knows 🤣

  • Like 3
Posted

So, it’s warming up, big time. Do I fertilize?

 

  • Like 1
Posted

After trimming dead fronds, you can see why I’m so sad about these palms and their damage. They were doing well…. Fruiting.

 

IMG_5007.jpeg

  • Like 6
Posted

I am posting this as a "heads up" ... please keep on the alert. 

I've seen a lot of models and discussions from operational forecast met friends that there is a decent chance fior another arctic cold snap that may make down this way come mid-month (abour 10 days out).  A lot of the ensemble members from many of the models, this weekend, are picking up, and converging, on the pattern setting up. 

One met mentioned to me that he thinks snow could be in the cards as far south as the I-10 corridor with a freeze down to the RGV.

Here's a discussuon (today) from another of my contacts :

<quote>

If you live in the south central states or Florida, you could be excused for believing that winter is over. Excused, perhaps, but not being realistic. There are some challenges coming up, even in lower latitudes, which will remind you that it is February, and the calendar end of winter is 48 days away. Bitter cold is setting up over the Pacific Northwest, the southern half of Canada, and the Upper Midwest. From that vantage point, it appears likely that before February is over, we will see two farthest-south-advance of Arctic values into the Rio Grande Valley and South Florida.
 
If we had a dual or triple point blocking signature within or near the Arctic Circle, the deep chill now building in Canada would be forced as far south as Mexico and Cuba. But a singular representation of a block, in this case a thumb-projection into Alaska, will skew the cAk air arrival in a way where some of the lower 48 states will escape the bitter cold. For the next ten days, that will probably be the Eastern Seaboard/Gulf Coast. There is a very strong Sargasso Sea heat ridge aligned in such a way as to produce west/southwest flow at most levels, from Texas through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. When the more southern anticyclone starts to weaken, inevitably, the air mass out of Arctic Canada will progress to lower latitudes. In order to speed this chilled regime on its move southward, a major winter storm will be needed. When that happens (in the 6-10 day range) those living in places like Bryan TX and Durham NC will get a profound shock after enjoying some very mild and dry conditions.

</quote>

Be alert that winter isn't quite over and the pattern this winter has been one of persistence and not exactly behaving like a  "typical" La Nina.  My emphasis on "typical" is in relation to the fact that the sub-tropical jet stream, globally, is quite active and strong when it would be expected to be a lot more muted.

- Matt

  • Like 3
Posted

All the way to Cuba ????

 

that sounds terrible I hope they’re wrong 

  • Like 3
Posted
14 hours ago, Tropicdoc said:

After trimming dead fronds, you can see why I’m so sad about these palms and their damage. They were doing well…. Fruiting.

 

IMG_5007.jpeg

Hey Doc what kind of palm is this? 

  • Like 1
Posted
11 hours ago, JeskiM said:

I am posting this as a "heads up" ... please keep on the alert. 

I've seen a lot of models and discussions from operational forecast met friends that there is a decent chance fior another arctic cold snap that may make down this way come mid-month (abour 10 days out).  A lot of the ensemble members from many of the models, this weekend, are picking up, and converging, on the pattern setting up. 

One met mentioned to me that he thinks snow could be in the cards as far south as the I-10 corridor with a freeze down to the RGV.

Here's a discussuon (today) from another of my contacts :

<quote>

If you live in the south central states or Florida, you could be excused for believing that winter is over. Excused, perhaps, but not being realistic. There are some challenges coming up, even in lower latitudes, which will remind you that it is February, and the calendar end of winter is 48 days away. Bitter cold is setting up over the Pacific Northwest, the southern half of Canada, and the Upper Midwest. From that vantage point, it appears likely that before February is over, we will see two farthest-south-advance of Arctic values into the Rio Grande Valley and South Florida.
 
If we had a dual or triple point blocking signature within or near the Arctic Circle, the deep chill now building in Canada would be forced as far south as Mexico and Cuba. But a singular representation of a block, in this case a thumb-projection into Alaska, will skew the cAk air arrival in a way where some of the lower 48 states will escape the bitter cold. For the next ten days, that will probably be the Eastern Seaboard/Gulf Coast. There is a very strong Sargasso Sea heat ridge aligned in such a way as to produce west/southwest flow at most levels, from Texas through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. When the more southern anticyclone starts to weaken, inevitably, the air mass out of Arctic Canada will progress to lower latitudes. In order to speed this chilled regime on its move southward, a major winter storm will be needed. When that happens (in the 6-10 day range) those living in places like Bryan TX and Durham NC will get a profound shock after enjoying some very mild and dry conditions.

</quote>

Be alert that winter isn't quite over and the pattern this winter has been one of persistence and not exactly behaving like a  "typical" La Nina.  My emphasis on "typical" is in relation to the fact that the sub-tropical jet stream, globally, is quite active and strong when it would be expected to be a lot more muted.

- Matt

Yikes. Thanks ill keep my cold weather stuff out just in case. 

  • Like 1
Posted
10 hours ago, Robbertico18 said:

All the way to Cuba ????

 

that sounds terrible I hope they’re wrong 

To that point he is referring to the cold front, which could make it to cuba. It's happened several times in the recent past, so it's not impossible, just rare.

If the air mass behind that front did make it to cuba it would likely not be freezing there because it would have to pass over a decent amount of warm ocean water and would moderate substantially.

-Matt

  • Like 2
Posted

I hope all your exotic plants have remained without major damage or are recovering.
things are looking good here so far, february has only just begun so it's important to get through it well.
in some cases there are still late frosts in march and april or there may be snow, but it only lasts for a short time as the sun gets stronger and warms the air and ground.

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  • Like 3
Posted
On 1/30/2025 at 6:09 PM, Xenon said:

I planted its sibling Orange Frost as a 3 gallon and just three months after planting, it experienced being covered in ice and 17F. Dropped all of its leaves but no major damage otherwise, leafed out like normal. Just went through 19F last week with no damage. 

Google and YouTube are mostly wrong when it comes to plant hardiness imo. Citrus used to be one of the most common fruit trees in Houston and grew here for 30 years making tons of fruit each year. The citrus here survived some dips into the teens with varying damage but most "normal" citrus like mandarins, oranges, grapefruit, etc can be grown here. Only the limes and most lemons are a lot more tender. 

Google AI tells me that Vachellia farnesiana, which occurs almost exclusively on heavy, wet resaca clay down here... requires dry, well drained soil.  LOL

  • Like 2
Posted

Well... summer's back.  85F-90F in my area depending on the weather station you're looking at.  Things are already waking up.

I have several woody trees that are pushing some new buds.

  • Like 3
Posted

It's our turn at the cold weather. Over night 27°F low and it's only 28.5°F now mid afternoon. We're expected to stay below 32°F until Friday, although day after tomorrow (Wednesday) is expected to be sunny. I expect some thawing then.

An inch of snow now and no end in sight for another 24 hrs.

 LOL.png.874b77a393f74bbdc08442c3b68d3ec8.png

 

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  • Like 2
Posted
11 hours ago, KsLouisiana said:

Hey Doc what kind of palm is this? 

Butia paraguayensis x parajubaea cocoides 

Posted

image.jpeg.715fae67f938fdc2f2ff796dc4298947.jpegwhat’s this? I like it!

  • Like 1
Posted
7 minutes ago, Tropicdoc said:

Butia paraguayensis x parajubaea cocoides 

I have never heard of them before. I just looked them up and man I hope they recover for ya!

  • Like 1
Posted
23 hours ago, JeskiM said:

I am posting this as a "heads up" ... please keep on the alert. 

I've seen a lot of models and discussions from operational forecast met friends that there is a decent chance fior another arctic cold snap that may make down this way come mid-month (abour 10 days out).  A lot of the ensemble members from many of the models, this weekend, are picking up, and converging, on the pattern setting up. 

One met mentioned to me that he thinks snow could be in the cards as far south as the I-10 corridor with a freeze down to the RGV.

Here's a discussuon (today) from another of my contacts :

<quote>

If you live in the south central states or Florida, you could be excused for believing that winter is over. Excused, perhaps, but not being realistic. There are some challenges coming up, even in lower latitudes, which will remind you that it is February, and the calendar end of winter is 48 days away. Bitter cold is setting up over the Pacific Northwest, the southern half of Canada, and the Upper Midwest. From that vantage point, it appears likely that before February is over, we will see two farthest-south-advance of Arctic values into the Rio Grande Valley and South Florida.
 
If we had a dual or triple point blocking signature within or near the Arctic Circle, the deep chill now building in Canada would be forced as far south as Mexico and Cuba. But a singular representation of a block, in this case a thumb-projection into Alaska, will skew the cAk air arrival in a way where some of the lower 48 states will escape the bitter cold. For the next ten days, that will probably be the Eastern Seaboard/Gulf Coast. There is a very strong Sargasso Sea heat ridge aligned in such a way as to produce west/southwest flow at most levels, from Texas through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. When the more southern anticyclone starts to weaken, inevitably, the air mass out of Arctic Canada will progress to lower latitudes. In order to speed this chilled regime on its move southward, a major winter storm will be needed. When that happens (in the 6-10 day range) those living in places like Bryan TX and Durham NC will get a profound shock after enjoying some very mild and dry conditions.

</quote>

Be alert that winter isn't quite over and the pattern this winter has been one of persistence and not exactly behaving like a  "typical" La Nina.  My emphasis on "typical" is in relation to the fact that the sub-tropical jet stream, globally, is quite active and strong when it would be expected to be a lot more muted.

- Matt

Man, there are a lot of meteo nerds on here anyways yeah, I was checking GFS because of AccuWeather hinting at a severe weather system coming through for us and saw that below average cold dip into Texas. I was like hmm will this be bad I don't know. checked the GEFS temp anomalies. well heck not again! LOL! Severe weather season starting soon! I have been wary of the troughs caused by ya know (The Aleutian low and Pacific High) When troughs dip into the US and start to get to the east side of the Rockies (During the early spring early summer months) A Gulf of Mexico ridge brings warm and moist air to the southeastern USA causing a warm up to happen usually accompanied by rain This also happens during winter thats why we get those rainy mild 50-60 degree days just no svr T-storms)) The Cold dry and air and Warm moist air combine with other factors like good upper level shear and good convection which the gulf heat and moistness will help. Causes a Severe weather outbreak! that usually happens east of the Rockies for the entire eastern USA, Midwest, and (southeastern US which is like Texas MS, AL, GA, LA OK, AR, TN, WV, KY, MO, (Less common VA, NC, SC) Then the Ohio valley also gets its own season so on and so on. (End of Meteo Lesson) Love to teach about this!

  • Like 1

-Cfa- Humid Subtropical Hot Summers Mild Winters- in Lexington and Kissimmee __ -Cfb- Subtropical Highland Warm Summers Mild Winters- in SW VA

-Lexington KY Palms: In ground (4)-Musa Basjoo (2)-Majesty Palms (1)-Pindo palm (20+)-Sabal minor mccurtain  The pindo and majesty will be protected when needed.

-Kissimmee FL whew (3)-Majesty Palms (3)-Bottle Palms (4)-Foxtail Palms (1)-Sabal Palmetto (1)-Clump of Bird of Paradise

-Recent Lows -6F/25'__-1.8F/24'__17.8F/23'__-5.2F/22'__9.2F/21' (Lexington) We have been having tough winters lately.

Posted

Polar vortex is a long distant memory...

Doesn't get any better than this 😅 

Screenshot2025-02-04090543.thumb.png.e8aef38d517c8cc3d76360e323f72d66.png

  • Like 4

Jonathan

Katy, TX (Zone 9a)

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