Polar vortex 2024/2025

[PAPalmtrees]

just got through another polar vortex how cold did it get for you guys

[PAPalmtrees]

[Colin1110082]

Lowest we got here was 1 degree Fahrenheit. Sabal minor :

[PAPalmtrees]

These temperatures are reminding me of Christmas 2022 @Colin1110082

[Colin1110082]

6 minutes ago, PaPalmTrees said:

These temperatures are reminding me of Christmas 2022 @Colin1110082

We get these temperature more often than you might think here 🤮 

[PAPalmtrees]

Just now, Colin1110082 said:

We get these temperature more often than you might think here 🤮 

we haven't been in the negative since 2022, hopefully you guys don't get in the negative this year.

[UK_Palms]

-10C to -12C / 14F to 10F across Manhattan this morning. A few -13C / 8F readings in places on Manhattan. Well into the single digits F further inland…

 

Even -10C / 14F at Long Beach, NY right on the coast. That will smoke any CIDP’s or washies that aren’t properly wrapped/boxed up.

 

I snapped these screenshots just after sunrise NYC time so I would have missed the absolute minimums. So you can probably knock another 1C / 2F off these minimums. 🥶

[PAPalmtrees]

3 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

-10C to -12C / 14F to 10F across Manhattan this morning. A few -13C / 8F readings in places on Manhattan. Well into the single digits F further inland…

 

Even -10C / 14F at Long Beach, NY right on the coast. That will smoke any CIDP’s or washies that aren’t properly wrapped/boxes up.

 

I snapped these screenshots just after sunrise NYC time so I would have missed the absolute minimums. So you can knock almost 1C / 2F off these minimums.

i'm glad the weather's gonna warm up after this.

[PalmsInBaltimore]

27 minutes ago, PaPalmTrees said:

i'm glad the weather's gonna warm up after this.

yes, a few days with temp minimums above freezing will be nice after the last few days of bitter cold and wind

[PalmsInBaltimore]

today's high predicted at 31F/-0.5C, which is 14 degrees F below average for today. Yesterday's high was something like 17 degrees below average for December 22

[PAPalmtrees]

I'm glad it's going to warm up it's been a cold December

[JeskiM]

Just gonna throw this out there concerning the first half of January 2025:  .... there looks to be a potential cold snap in the eastern / southeastern half of the lower 48.   

Possible hard freeze down as far as middle Florida around the 9th or so. 

Course thats a little ways out and the forecast will change over the next several days. ... just getting a potential warning out there for those of you in the S. Eastern States to get prepared just in case.

-Matt

[JeskiM]

Euro model shows an intense Polar Vortex (the blue blob at bottom center) sitting over the Great Lakes with -20F in Chicago :

The deep freeze pushes all along the southern states :

I really hope this doesn't verify ... doubt it will. It's only a single model run. Most of the models are eluding to a PV setting up over the Great Lakes, but one should never rely on a single model run.

For example, if you look at the Ensemble outputs you see a different picture :

Tail risk (2-5%) in Atlanta for the 10th is 0F to 10F, but the median is 23F. 

Still cold, but not as extreme.

Best to continue to monitor this over the next 10-14 days.

-Matt

[flplantguy]

Thats near all time record lows for Florida, so I doubt it will happen too, but it hints at whats coming and is a good warning to get prepared for some cold on the way.

[Mazat]

On 12/23/2024 at 3:22 PM, UK_Palms said:

-10C to -12C / 14F to 10F across Manhattan this morning. A few -13C / 8F readings in places on Manhattan. Well into the single digits F further inland…

 

Even -10C / 14F at Long Beach, NY right on the coast. That will smoke any CIDP’s or washies that aren’t properly wrapped/boxed up.

 

I snapped these screenshots just after sunrise NYC time so I would have missed the absolute minimums. So you can probably knock another 1C / 2F off these minimums. 🥶

it's very special, New York has roughly the same latitude as Naples, where it's much warmer in winter in terms of average annual temperature, but also in terms of minimum temperatures and so on.

[Xenon]

Lol 1899 popped up in today's GFS run😆, just for the lols probably

 

[flplantguy]

The 19 in south florida is a bit much but having both models indicating something at peak cold season is comcerning.  Something wicked this way comes🥶

[JeskiM]

This starting to bring too many bad memories of 2021 all over again, but on a larger scale (east to west).

Could be a lot of snow with this too :

the models don't want to let go of this PV .

-Matt

[JeskiM]

Here's a comparison of 1899 and 2021:

2021 :

1899 :

... and the delta :

I think 1899 is the "winner" !

-Matt

[UK_Palms]

It looks like trouble is brewing on both sides of the Atlantic. It might be time to start making contingency plans now... 😬

 

The GFS 18z has cold air in place for a long time. Temps down to -18C / 0F for Munich in Germany. -10C / 12F for Paris. Likely -5C / 23F for London. GFS tends to understate the minimums as well by 1-2C, which is worrying. I highly doubt this will come off but it is certainly palm devastation temperatures. These charts are 11-12 days away still, but the cold starts arriving in 2-3 days time!!! @Arecaceus

 

 

The guys trying to grow CIDP, Butia and Jubaea & what not in Alesund on the west coast of Norway could be looking at -15C / 5F if this came off and weeks below freezing. Hopefully it doesn't. @Palmfjord62degressnorth @Norwaypalmtrees 

[JeskiM]

The models have been consistently signaling the dual cold snaps for N. America and Europe for a few days now. It seems certain that it's going to happen. 

It's just a matter of details such as timing, position, how cold will get and where the precip goes. It's those details that will make or break the forecasrt (same with any and every forecast).

Unfortunately it will be a few more days before the details become more clear, so it can be considered the early warning to stay on alert and to be ready.

-Matt

 

[Meangreen94z]

43 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

It looks like trouble is brewing on both sides of the Atlantic. It might be time to start making contingency plans now... 😬

 

The GFS 18z has cold air in place for a long time. Temps down to -18C / 0F for Munich in Germany. -10C / 12F for Paris. Likely -5C / 23F for London. GFS tends to understate the minimums as well by 1-2C, which is worrying. I highly doubt this will come off but it is certainly palm devastation temperatures. These charts are 11-12 days away still, but the cold starts arriving in 2-3 days time!!! @Arecaceus

 

 

The guys trying to grow CIDP, Butia and Jubaea & what not in Alesund on the west coast of Norway could be looking at -15C / 5F if this came off and weeks below freezing. Hopefully it doesn't. @Palmfjord62degressnorth @Norwaypalmtrees 

Those are hard to follow, you really have to look closely to see the land mass and borders.

[flplantguy]

Staying consistent and a bit more believable today.  Im still not convinced that my temps will be similar to homestead though, i think it misses the subtleties of things here.  Good thing its that time of year and expected to be cold, but the new pattern of cold i could do without.

[Foxpalms]

14 hours ago, Meangreen94z said:

Those are hard to follow, you really have to look closely to see the land mass and borders.

Agreed, for example you can see here in central London the blue is a much lighter color than the outskirts. The shade of blue between 0c to -2c.

[SeanK]

Looks like the week of Jan 07 to 13 will be below average in the eastern half of the continental US. Precipitation as well with areas of snow and ice. Cold to extend south of I10.

 

[HudsonBill]

6 hours ago, flplantguy said:

Staying consistent and a bit more believable today.  Im still not convinced that my temps will be similar to homestead though, i think it misses the subtleties of things here.  Good thing its that time of year and expected to be cold, but the new pattern of cold i could do without.

Weird it has the normal colder areas warmer than the normaly warmer areas. 🤔 only thing that would cause that is winds from the west 

[PAPalmtrees]

More cold on the way Here we go again =0

[UK_Palms]

8 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

Agreed, for example you can see here in central London the blue is a much lighter color than the outskirts. The shade of blue between 0c to -2c.

The latest GFS is a complete sh*tshow for us. The whole run is freezing from the 2nd onwards for most of Europe. We escape the worst of it somewhat, but those growing palms in Scandinavia, Germany and parts of central Europe may be kissing goodbye to them all. Weeks on end of sub-freezing temps and -20C minimums potentially.

 

I saw one chart earlier that had -15C / 5F in Paris. And this disgusting abomination of a chart popped up yesterday morning. That's all-time record cold in some of those places under that setup as GFS understates the minima in January by about 2-3C. Probably clear skies and snow pact causing temps to tank beyond belief. Some of these charts are reminiscent of January 1987.

[Joe The Palm]

Look out folks! 

 

Edited December 31, 2024 by Joe The Palm
.

[JLM]

2 hours ago, Joe The Palm said:

Look out folks! 

 

Weatherman Plus is not a good source to follow. That channel has a long history of making scary and clickbait thumbnails and posting misinformation. On the other hand, Mitch is a good source for winter weather interests in the SE US. 

[Xenon]

4pm local time in Texas LOL

Yep that's a 70+ degree spread in temps 

[SeanK]

17/18 Jan looking like a short warmup from Texas to the Atlantic. But then for 20 Jan, the bottom drops out.