Polar Vortex

[SeanK]

Florida I10 

[SeanK]

Coastal GA

[SeanK]

Coastal SC

[Xenon]

2 hours ago, Chester B said:

I’m at 36/37f just before sunrise.  No signs of frost on the roofs or car windows. 
 

I looked at Florida and it’s kind of shocking how far down the cold made it.  

38F here...SW Loop 610 and Hobby only 42F 

[Robert Cade Ross]

2 hours ago, Xenon said:

38F here...SW Loop 610 and Hobby only 42F 

38.4° Manvel I’m satisfied lol

[MarcusH]

37.6° measured at the Randolph Air Force Base weather station which is about 5 miles away from my house.  It warmed up pretty quick though. Nothing dramatic so far.  Are those artic blasts shifting to the SE of the US lately or is the bullet with the Texas name on it , already in the chamber? 

[MarcusH]

42 minutes ago, Robert Cade Ross said:

38.4° Manvel I’m satisfied lol

Lol the thing is it's only November.  

[SeanK]

I checked Texas temps around 7:30 this morning. Even Amarillo was above freezing.

[Chester B]

Officially 37F at Bush Airport which is only a few miles from me.  No signs of damage to the frost sensitive plants like Bananas and Colocasia.  It’s currently 72F and after this back to the 80s for the foreseeable future. 

[Xenon]

24 hour lows

look at the difference north vs south of Lake P !!

 

30s deep into Pinellas 

 

Sudden dip into the 40s is probably enough to shock things like soursop and breadfruit into leaf drop

[PalmatierMeg]

On 11/11/2025 at 7:25 AM, SeanK said:

Is this what you're seeing this morning? 

°C

Not quite. This morning it was 43F. Over at the hospital in SFM yesterday morning was also 43F. Generally we are a few degrees warmer because we are closer to the coast and overlook a freshwater canal. These early cold temps will make my tropical palms very unhappy.

[PalmatierMeg]

On 11/10/2025 at 8:45 AM, MarcusH said:

If we see some below average cold fronts this winter I definitely lose my hope for mild winters. I believe colder , below average winters will be the norm . Climate is changing for sure.  

We've had some warmer-than-usual winters the past few years. We are overdue for a shellacking.

[MarcusH]

3 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

We've had some warmer-than-usual winters the past few years. We are overdue for a shellacking.

I like that word shellacking lolThe average might be above normal but the artic blasts are pretty nerve-racking .  Time to put on some boxing gloves. 

[MarcusH]

3 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Not quite. This morning it was 43F. Over at the hospital in SFM yesterday morning was also 43F. Generally we are a few degrees warmer because we are closer to the coast and overlook a freshwater canal. These early cold temps will make my tropical palms very unhappy.

What's the coldest event you've experienced in Cape Coral since you life there? 

[HudsonBill]

This is how cold northern pasco county got this am. That area that was in the 20s had a reading of 19 last winter. Im right south of the area in the 20s my tenp got down to 32.3 at its lowest last night. 

[flplantguy]

There are posts from some meteorologists about a sudden stratospheric warming event becoming more likely. It would be a rare event in November just like the last cold front was.  It's been interesting weather wise lately in Florida, so why not?

[MarcusH]

On 11/12/2025 at 9:41 PM, flplantguy said:

There are posts from some meteorologists about a sudden stratospheric warming event becoming more likely. It would be a rare event in November just like the last cold front was.  It's been interesting weather wise lately in Florida, so why not?

It's already happening !!! Someone's gonna ruin the party this winter.  

[SeanK]

A week back, the mid-range trends were for above average temperatures. Now there seems to be a turnaround, with December sharply colder. This is Dec. 1st, looking at the Euro AI model. 15F° below average.

 

[UK_Palms]

@SeanK The regular Euro 12z has something similar with the east Asia / Siberia cold pool shifting across the north pole (where it gathers more intensity) on its way over the pole and lines up in northwest Canada. If that happens it will spill straight down the eastern side of the Rockies, obliterating the mid-west USA and maybe the east coast too (Florida should be safe). I think you guys really need to watch out for the 2nd week of December.

25th November

 

3rd December (huge shift)

 

I hate to say it, but you guys taking the rap from that in the mid-west USA will fire up the jet stream and promote mild westerlies into Europe for us here, at your expense. You can somewhat see that knock on effect on the second hPa 850 chart above. We currently have below average temperatures here, but the mild air moves back in on that chart as the cold is all diverted to Canada, firing up the jet stream and Atlantic mildness.

The strange thing is, the long range modelling and analogs should favour colder/blocking setups for us here in western Europe going into December, while promoting mild/warm in most of USA. So it seems the opposite outcome to what the drivers support may end up happening. Probably due to a split in the vortex or something that disrupts the previously supported pattern for late November / early December.

Again the background drivers and longer range modelling had a Greenland high bringing the arctic air to Europe and milder air to the mid-west USA. The models must be picking up on a vortex split or reversal or something that disrupts that and shunts all the cold into northwest Canada initially and then into central/eastern USA, potentially. It will need watching closely. 2nd and 3rd week of December is going to be BAD for central/eastern USA, or us in Europe, depending on how the vortex behaves. I am less worried about it now for me though, compared to 24 hours ago. Just saying.

[MarcusH]

The voices are getting louder about a very strong polar vortex moving its way down to the lower 48 at the end of November and early December. I think we're getting hammered by a series of polar vortexes this winter 25/26.  Our daytime highs are well above 80s ,not a good sign.  

[SeanK]

Well, all the hype for a horrific polar vortex was just that, hype. We did however, switch from October to January as we passed Thanks giving.

[mnorell]

5 hours ago, SeanK said:

Well, all the hype for a horrific polar vortex was just that, hype. We did however, switch from October to January as we passed Thanks giving.

Try not to get ahead of yourself...the seasoned meteorologists I watch on YouTube have all made quite a point that this stratospheric warming event predicts a very unstable, wavy or spoke-like polar vortex that will follow in several weeks, roughly in the Christmas and New Year's timeframe. There is a lot of cold Siberian air loading up over the icy pole and likely spilling across into Canada and toward the midwest and eastern U.S. later this month. I keep seeing analog years of 1983 and 1989 being mentioned. Hopefully not the case, but keep your eyes and ears open...

[UK_Palms]

On 11/19/2025 at 3:17 AM, UK_Palms said:

@SeanK The regular Euro 12z has something similar with the east Asia / Siberia cold pool shifting across the north pole (where it gathers more intensity) on its way over the pole and lines up in northwest Canada. If that happens it will spill straight down the eastern side of the Rockies, obliterating the mid-west USA and maybe the east coast too (Florida should be safe). I think you guys really need to watch out for the 2nd week of December.

25th November

 

3rd December (huge shift)

 

I hate to say it, but you guys taking the rap from that in the mid-west USA will fire up the jet stream and promote mild westerlies into Europe for us here, at your expense. You can somewhat see that knock on effect on the second hPa 850 chart above. We currently have below average temperatures here, but the mild air moves back in on that chart as the cold is all diverted to Canada, firing up the jet stream and Atlantic mildness.

The strange thing is, the long range modelling and analogs should favour colder/blocking setups for us here in western Europe going into December, while promoting mild/warm in most of USA. So it seems the opposite outcome to what the drivers support may end up happening. Probably due to a split in the vortex or something that disrupts the previously supported pattern for late November / early December.

Again the background drivers and longer range modelling had a Greenland high bringing the arctic air to Europe and milder air to the mid-west USA. The models must be picking up on a vortex split or reversal or something that disrupts that and shunts all the cold into northwest Canada initially and then into central/eastern USA, potentially. It will need watching closely. 2nd and 3rd week of December is going to be BAD for central/eastern USA, or us in Europe, depending on how the vortex behaves. I am less worried about it now for me though, compared to 24 hours ago. Just saying.

 

Well 18 days later and it seems my post aged pretty darn well. The Euro model that I posted looks to have nailed the arctic blast dropping down into Canada and the US a few days ago. I specifically mentioned back then on 19th November that you guys will need to watch out for the 2nd week of December and that looks to be the case.

The cold will probably peak around Wednesday for many next week, although some may not see the worst of it until Saturday or Sunday. Beyond that it could be reinforced again with even more severe and sustained cold going into the following week (15th onwards). Latest modelling shows things getting much worse going into the 3rd week of December. It will need watching.

 

I was also right about the cold in America promoting milder westerlies and an active Atlantic for us in western Europe (and Europe in general) with it now looking exceptionally mild here. Temperatures are probably pushing into the low 60's F for me here over the next few days. Nighttime lows around 50-55F.

 

A month ago I was hearing that December was looking to be the coldest in 15 years for us here due to the weak La Nina promoting early winter cold in Europe and Greenland blocking regimes setting up. Now it looks like this December could be one of the mildest on record for us here. Of course mild in winter also means WET, WET, WET!

[MarcusH]

I'm not a meteorologist so it seems to be that you have way more understanding about it but at the end of the day I have seen many predictions from official government sources that end up very wrong.  It only takes one disturbance in the weather system to toss everything around.  2021 was a good example for us over here in the US.  No one expected the outcome . Anyway while I do pay attention to meteorologist I also see the trend of warmer winters but with more severe and frequent cold snaps that we see here in the US as well as Europe. I'm not sure how things are un the rest of the world. Not uncommon but the years with less severe cold snaps are over for now that is my feeling and observation so far.  The number of record breaking highs and lows all over the world is an indicator of major climate shifts.

[SeanK]

TWC prediction for the week. Bottoms out next weekend.

 

[UK_Palms]

6 hours ago, MarcusH said:

Anyway while I do pay attention to meteorologist I also see the trend of warmer winters but with more severe and frequent cold snaps that we see here in the US as well as Europe. I'm not sure how things are un the rest of the world. Not uncommon but the years with less severe cold snaps are over for now that is my feeling and observation so far.  The number of record breaking highs and lows all over the world is an indicator of major climate shifts.

 

Nowhere in Europe see's more severe or more frequent cold snaps nowadays. Nowhere. Literally the entire European continent is the warmest it has been since at least the 1400's during the Medieval warm period. It is probably warmer than the Roman warm period as well nowadays, continent-wide. For western Europe specifically (Ireland, UK, Spain, France, Netherlands etc), you may actually have to go back 4,000+ years to the end of the Holocene Climate Optimum for the last time that it was warmer than modern day (2020's).

The only minor exceptions to the record warmth may be the far north of Scandinavia and Iceland, although they have still warmed but to a less of an extent. Those areas have been a bit more marginal, but the rest of Europe is so warm/mild during winter nowadays, that it would make winters during the Roman warm period look a bit on the cold side. Looking at the data, 2020-2025 would have been warmer than both of the Medieval and Roman warm periods for western and southern Europe especially. For central and eastern Europe you have to go back at least 700 years to the Medieval warm period to the last time that it was warmer than present day.

I notice that even in northern Germany, CIDP's are starting to appear, albeit gradually. Same with the Netherlands. Soon it will be Denmark. Unless a major cold winter snap hits like in 2010, I can see CIDP moving into coastal Denmark in the next decade or two.

[MarcusH]

12 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

 

Nowhere in Europe see's more severe or more frequent cold snaps nowadays. Nowhere. Literally the entire European continent is the warmest it has been since at least the 1400's during the Medieval warm period. It is probably warmer than the Roman warm period as well nowadays, continent-wide. For western Europe specifically (Ireland, UK, Spain, France, Netherlands etc), you may actually have to go back 4,000+ years to the end of the Holocene Climate Optimum for the last time that it was warmer than modern day (2020's).

The only minor exceptions to the record warmth may be the far north of Scandinavia and Iceland, although they have still warmed but to a less of an extent. Those areas have been a bit more marginal, but the rest of Europe is so warm/mild during winter nowadays, that it would make winters during the Roman warm period look a bit on the cold side. Looking at the data, 2020-2025 would have been warmer than both of the Medieval and Roman warm periods for western and southern Europe especially. For central and eastern Europe you have to go back at least 700 years to the Medieval warm period to the last time that it was warmer than present day.

I notice that even in northern Germany, CIDP's are starting to appear, albeit gradually. Same with the Netherlands. Soon it will be Denmark. Unless a major cold winter snap hits like in 2010, I can see CIDP moving into coastal Denmark in the next decade or two.

I lived 40 years in Germany, same city until 2021 and I can assure you that since around 2015 the winters were longer with low temperatures that we have seen in the 1980s and 1990s. There was definitely a warm up between that. Now the snow comes back every year. Everyone over there tells me it's colder for longer and summers are rather rainy and cool. I see the opposite from your observation. Maybe in England but Germany,  no !!! 

[UK_Palms]

14 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

I lived 40 years in Germany, same city until 2021 and I can assure you that since around 2015 the winters were longer with low temperatures that we have seen in the 1980s and 1990s. There was definitely a warm up between that. Now the snow comes back every year. Everyone over there tells me it's colder for longer and summers are rather rainy and cool. I see the opposite from your observation. Maybe in England but Germany,  no !!! 

So you are saying winters are colder and longer in Germany nowadays compared to the 1980s and 1990's...!? Absolute madness to be claiming that when you crunch the data. Even in regards to snow, it is a fraction of what it used to be.

The past 2 winters have been amongst the mildest on record for western, central and eastern Europe. I don't think in the recorded data era (1900 onwards), we have experienced 2 back to back winters that have been so mild, especially in central and eastern Europe. The 23/24 winter was the mildest on record I believe for Germany and Poland. And the 24/25 winter was also in the top 3 mildest on record.

It was a similar story in western Europe as well, although the anomaly was a bit less pronounced. But the back to back winters of 23/24 and 24/25 were the mildest back to back winters on record. If this winter continues how it is starting out, it will join the other two. The last proper freeze for Europe as a whole was maybe in January/February 2021, if we are counting that. Otherwise it is February 2018.

However none of those two freeze events stack up against 2010, 1987, 1963, 1947 etc. Those winters were in a different league, but they may not even be possible anymore due to the sheer extent of the warming in Europe. I think in France, winter temperatures are already 2.5C warmer than they were in 1990.

[MarcusH]

1 hour ago, UK_Palms said:

So you are saying winters are colder and longer in Germany nowadays compared to the 1980s and 1990's...!? Absolute madness to be claiming that when you crunch the data. Even in regards to snow, it is a fraction of what it used to be.

The past 2 winters have been amongst the mildest on record for western, central and eastern Europe. I don't think in the recorded data era (1900 onwards), we have experienced 2 back to back winters that have been so mild, especially in central and eastern Europe. The 23/24 winter was the mildest on record I believe for Germany and Poland. And the 24/25 winter was also in the top 3 mildest on record.

It was a similar story in western Europe as well, although the anomaly was a bit less pronounced. But the back to back winters of 23/24 and 24/25 were the mildest back to back winters on record. If this winter continues how it is starting out, it will join the other two. The last proper freeze for Europe as a whole was maybe in January/February 2021, if we are counting that. Otherwise it is February 2018.

However none of those two freeze events stack up against 2010, 1987, 1963, 1947 etc. Those winters were in a different league, but they may not even be possible anymore due to the sheer extent of the warming in Europe. I think in France, winter temperatures are already 2.5C warmer than they were in 1990.

Do you read what I was saying I said the average winter temperature went up there's no denial about that but the place where I come from, we are experiencing more temperatures in the low single digits with multiple 0 degrees days in rural areas . It rarely snowed between early 2000s and 2015 but now we get a good amount of snow almost every year. Germany's climate varies a lot by region.  

[UK_Palms]

2 hours ago, MarcusH said:

Do you read what I was saying I said the average winter temperature went up there's no denial about that but the place where I come from, we are experiencing more temperatures in the low single digits with multiple 0 degrees days in rural areas . It rarely snowed between early 2000s and 2015 but now we get a good amount of snow almost every year. Germany's climate varies a lot by region.  

Where exactly, location-wise, are these increases in snow and increases in 0 degree days or low single digits? I hope you are talking Centigrade as well and not Fahrenheit, otherwise it is instantly disproved.

Across the western half of Europe in general, snowfall is about 1/4 of what it was in 1950. And I think snowfall is about half of what it was in 1990, or even less potentially. We are talking gigantic reductions in UK, France, Netherlands, Germany, Austria etc.

These temperatures going into mid-December in Berlin would have been unthinkable 50 years ago. Can barely get a frost yet...

 

I remember hearing that Napoleon had to deal with -30C temperatures in November in Poland back in the 1800's. That is absolutely unthinkable today. Minimums struggle to reach -20C in January or February even nowadays in Poland. In the coastal regions it rarely ever gets close to -10C nowadays either.

How long before CIDP start appearing on the north coast of Poland...? I would hedge a bet it happens within my lifetime. The way things are going, I would expect to see some CIDP in the coastal areas of Poland within the next 10-20 years.

[Chester B]

I'm getting so sick of all they hype on social media about polar vortexes etc.  If they were to be believed we would have experienced at 3 last three major polar vortexes so far and another on the way this coming week.  If you look closely you'll see it there hitting us Monday...

[JohnAndSancho]

We're supposed to hit lows of 19 and 22 Sunday and Monday then back up to the 70s by Saturday. Gotta love winter in the South. 

[SeanK]

Thus far, none of the vortexes have been as strong as initial predictions. Current outlook for Atlanta:

 

[Xenon]

The tropical vortex 😅🌴

[Sabal King]

Another lesson to not get hyped up and worried about the amateur weathermen who predict cold, ice age and damage and gloom daily.  They make money with your clicks.  Enjoy the warmth y’all!

[Robert Cade Ross]

2 hours ago, Xenon said:

The tropical vortex 😅🌴

My king palms are not complaining about this weather 🤩

[MarcusH]

So far so good guys . As much as I like a cool winter but I'd love to see a warm winter this year. No frost since February 2025 , knocking on wood. 

[Robert Cade Ross]

On 1/3/2026 at 1:44 PM, MarcusH said:

So far so good guys . As much as I like a cool winter but I'd love to see a warm winter this year. No frost since February 2025 , knocking on wood. 

Had some light frost damage where I am . Largest papaya got the top portion nuked lol 29° or so . Manvel house only hit 34° 

[ChrisA]

Well fellow Texans, time to drag this thread kicking and screaming back up in the list. I’m watching this coming weekend’s frivolities start to take shape so we can see where we end up when we’ve got hindsight a week or so from today. I’m sure I can’t be the only one!

A please feel free to contribute for your part of Texas!

Here is the 7-10 day (depending on what the given app easily provides) forecast for my location in San Antonio.

First is Wunderground, then Accuweather, Apple, NWS

 

 

[Robert Cade Ross]

Here is my forecast ❄️? 
 

so far my king palms have not shown any damage from temps below 30° (3X) this winter @Xenon should I protect them from this event tho ? Alexandre double trunk seed grown 3 and a half years old . purpurea I brought back from homestead Fl last March.