Florida winter 2023-2024

[flplantguy]

That front did some odd stuff to my temp readings overnight but not too bad. Yet.

[JLM]

Sigh.

[flplantguy]

These last two wet cold fronts have a very different temperature profile on my sensor than the dry ones at the end of November did. Soil moisture in the dry sandhills is definitely a big factor in how cold it gets here.  Not everything but large enough to notice.  The difference from the sensor in the open to under the trees last night was less than with dry sand before. To the point I was questioning the accuracy of the sensor before but it seems more in line with expectations with these last few events. Last night was only 2 or 3 degrees off central Pinellas county, and it was 6 or more before.

[RFun]

Seems to be shaping up to be a mild Winter for many areas.  We'll see what January brings.

[Roystonea Reggie]

Uh oh- fantasy land GFS forecast for the morning of January 19th shows a freeze reaching from the Midwest deep into central Florida. Previous runs showed temps in the 50s if the arctic low gets lodged in the northeast instead so fingers crossed for the latter.

[ChristianStAug]

Coldest run of the year for Florida on the 18z GFS. 2 weeks from now.  May it keep being 2 weeks away.  🙏 

[flplantguy]

I saw the day before temps and was a little concerned, but like you said fantasy land is better than tomorrow! However that is the peak for freeze risk so it makes sense too.  Hopefully that's all the GFS is latching onto.

[SeanK]

No to Worry; Köppen said MIA is tropical.

[SubTropicRay]

A sharply negative AO supports the freeze possibility.  Once again, the door will be wide open.   

 

[flplantguy]

Well that changed a bit lol. Let's hope it's wrong and goes back. However the PNA should also be a little negative so maybe not too extreme I hope. Spread the wealth of cold to everyone and we all get less of it.

[Silas_Sancona]

24 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

Well that changed a bit lol. Let's hope it's wrong and goes back. However the PNA should also be a little negative so maybe not too extreme I hope. Spread the wealth of cold to everyone and we all get less of it.

Not quite in Neg. territory jusstt Yet... Looking to be headed that way ..or will it?.  If it does, it won't be in Neg. territory  for long  ..if  it follows the currently suggested forecast path.



NAO may head back toward positive, if it follows the suggested forecast too..

[flplantguy]

The European model is joining in now too, albeit a little overboard I think.  Lots of time for things to change though.

[ChristianStAug]

I have been hoping as well that the -PNA helps us out and dampens out the deepness of the possible trough. The operation models have been wild in how some runs pause and erode the extremely cold air as it moves farther south and east after it makes it into TX. The GFS especially has been trying to build back mild air (sometimes equally as warm as the other side is cold) in response to what I believe is MJO phase 4? Another thought I had, is how rare would it be that some zone 10 California areas get a freeze event the same year as Florida's  zone 10? Some of the runs have what I think to be pretty palmly parts of California dropping below freezing. 

[Silas_Sancona]

39 minutes ago, ChristianStAug said:

I have been hoping as well that the -PNA helps us out and dampens out the deepness of the possible trough. The operation models have been wild in how some runs pause and erode the extremely cold air as it moves farther south and east after it makes it into TX. The GFS especially has been trying to build back mild air (sometimes equally as warm as the other side is cold) in response to what I believe is MJO phase 4?

Another thought I had, is how rare would it be that some zone 10 California areas get a freeze event the same year as Florida's  zone 10? Some of the runs have what I think to be pretty palmly parts of California dropping below freezing. 

Frosty temps ..or the occasional light freeze, in the coldest pockets at least,  can occur fairly regularly here, or in 10-11 areas of CA, though it is rare that 10+ areas will see serious cold / cold that lasts several days in a row.. 
 

As far as both CA / AZ and FL seeing such a spell in the same year? i'm sure that has occurred a few times, ..though rare.

Agree 100%, DON"T put any faith in individual GFS runs.. All- Over- The- Place- is an understatement, lol..  That said.. there's been plenty of talk concerning the potential that ..at some point before the 20-25th, the " Typical " milder El Nino  set up will nose it's way back into the west, possibly undercutting the cold air trying to sit over the west, shoving it east..  ..which has been showing up in some GFS runs ..so,  ..Just have to see what happens. 

Regardless, CPC 3 weeker is out and shows this ..for now..  Checking yesterday's update from the ECMWF weeklys?.. Showing essentially the same thing, at least Temperature Anom.- wise. Hints of an upcoming trend?, or more flip floppin..   We'll see..




Other than the ugly 28-29 that keeps showing up for next Tuesday?? morning on the current WX underground 10 day, rest of the " cold " looks ..pretty typical, though dragging itself out a bit.

Not that i trust it's thoughts, at all... lol,  but Accuweather's " thoughts"  show no lower than 30-31 for the same time frame.


No worries regardless. sometimes, it gets cold.. That's life outside the true tropics.   Rather be first in line for receiving a lump of " winter " now,  than last in line, waiting to see when it might be delivered.


 

[ChristianStAug]

These operational runs are getting scary

 

The average Florida gardener or weather channel user has no inkling 

[TampaPalms]

23 minutes ago, ChristianStAug said:

These operational runs are getting scary

 

The average Florida gardener or weather channel user has no inkling 

I literally just was reading that on Twitter. I hope not. Any lower my garden is in trouble in Tampa. I could do 30° or even 29° give or take but any lower and it will fry my arecas foxtails and white birds.

 

[_nevi]

4 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

These operational runs are getting scary

The average Florida gardener or weather channel user has no inkling 

Scary indeed. I literally hope with every update that the modeled cold stays in day 10+ "fantasy" range.

[kinzyjr]

Looks like there might be some open space in the garden to expand my Livistona collection.

[flplantguy]

That's far enough out forecasters don't really take much stock in them.  The numbers just don't look right over the state. It does show the overall pattern though so I'm getting my stuff together today so it's ready.

[Fishinsteeg234]

NOAA’s maps are showing some cold moving down through January, comparing the (6-10 day) to (8-14 day) to the (3-4 week) forecast, but nothing worrisome for florida as it stands now. However, I tend to lean optimistic on most things but I want to continue my daily celebratory “no-freeze” dances until spring. 

[Jimbean]

11 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

These operational runs are getting scary

 

The average Florida gardener or weather channel user has no inkling 

That's freezing temperatures pretty far south.  It's showing upper 20's in Tampa and low 30's in Miami. 

[kinzyjr]

10 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

That's freezing temperatures pretty far south.  It's showing upper 20's in Tampa and low 30's in Miami. 

I noticed that as well.  The map actually had some milder readings near the Space Coast than some of SE Florida.

[D. Morrowii]

I’m going to put the alert to Protecon 5 for now then. 
I guess not a lot of use speculating this far out but wouldn't this blow the updated USDA zone map to smithereens? 

[kinzyjr]

1 minute ago, D. Morrowii said:

I’m going to put the alert to Protecon 5 for now then. 
I guess not a lot of use speculating this far out but wouldn't this blow the updated USDA zone map to smithereens? 

The zone map always gets blown to smithereens at some point

In your case, if you get 34F like it shows on the map, most of your stuff should handle that just fine.  Where I'm located, 25F-28F is in that all-important range where the high end is doable and the low end cancels out a few things.  That's alright though.  We have 4 flowering species of Livistona in town and a lot of Acoelorrhaphe wrightii seeds available.

[Rapha2343]

Models are coming to an agreement of very cold weather for the Southeast around January 17th - 22nd.

For now, looks like December 2022

 

Edited January 7, 2024 by Rapha2343

[ChristianStAug]

36 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

I noticed that as well.  The map actually had some milder readings near the Space Coast than some of SE Florida.

Yeah… The statewide temp differential on this map is quite odd and doesn’t follow typical patterns. The difference between Gainesville and Miami would be expected to be much greater.

 

On bright side — the Latest 12z GFS operational is MUCH KINDER and dampens out the cold push considerably look much more typical cool period. 
 

TPIE (Tropical Plant International Expo) takes place in Fort Lauderdale 17-19 of January. All of the Floridian ornamental plant folks will be on edge if such a freeze is simultaneously occurring at their home farms. 

[D. Morrowii]

49 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

The zone map always gets blown to smithereens at some point

In your case, if you get 34F like it shows on the map, most of your stuff should handle that just fine.  Where I'm located, 25F-28F is in that all-important range where the high end is doable and the low end cancels out a few things.  That's alright though.  We have 4 flowering species of Livistona in town and a lot of Acoelorrhaphe wrightii seeds available.

Hmm I’m thinking if its 29 in Melbourne I’ll probably see the same here. On that weird map Merritt Island is the warmest spot after the keys. 🙂

[D. Morrowii]

That said,  Protecon 5 would be the lowest level alert on the Protecon scale that I made up earlier lol

[PalmatierMeg]

It's been a weird winter here. I've never experienced an El Niño like this one. Our lowest temp so far was 51.2F back in December. Most of our highs have been 60s/70s. Mostly cloudy days. In the coming days our highs are predicted to be 70s to 80F. Cool/chilly but not bitter cold so far. The statistical nadir of winter is Jan. 10. Then average temps slowly start to rise. Another 6-7 weeks until March 1 when chances of a freeze fall off the chart.

[Rapha2343]

1 hour ago, PalmatierMeg said:

It's been a weird winter here. I've never experienced an El Niño like this one. Our lowest temp so far was 51.2F back in December. Most of our highs have been 60s/70s. Mostly cloudy days. In the coming days our highs are predicted to be 70s to 80F. Cool/chilly but not bitter cold so far. The statistical nadir of winter is Jan. 10. Then average temps slowly start to rise. Another 6-7 weeks until March 1 when chances of a freeze fall off the chart.

 Its like you have a big wall of concrete and a big wave on the other side. One day, the wave will break the wall and everything will be flooded by the water.

The same thing applies for a coldless winter so far. No big storms, warm December and not even 45°F so far.  That's why the "big wave" is coming mid-late month. One day it has to come. 

[PalmatierMeg]

2 hours ago, Rapha2343 said:

 Its like you have a big wall of concrete and a big wave on the other side. One day, the wave will break the wall and everything will be flooded by the water.

The same thing applies for a coldless winter so far. No big storms, warm December and not even 45°F so far.  That's why the "big wave" is coming mid-late month. One day it has to come. 

The question is will the negative NAO wreak havoc on us in the next 4 weeks or so? By mid- late Feb. the chances of a catastrophic freeze a la Jan. 11 2010 fall precipitously. I've experienced a few lows ~37F in late Feb but no freezes. Even in March we can get cold fronts that would have wiped out my gardens had they hit in January. But by March the sun rises so early and shines so strongly cold fronts can't compete.

[RedRabbit]

 

I’m not too worried yet, it’s still a ways away and the forecast can change. We’ve seen this plenty of times before only for an unremarkable cold front to move through. 

Edited January 7, 2024 by RedRabbit

[Jimbean]

5 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

I’m going to put the alert to Protecon 5 for now then. 
I guess not a lot of use speculating this far out but wouldn't this blow the updated USDA zone map to smithereens? 

That map was blown to smithereens as soon as it was published.  Worse than the 1990 map.

[D. Morrowii]

4 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

It's been a weird winter here. I've never experienced an El Niño like this one. Our lowest temp so far was 51.2F back in December. Most of our highs have been 60s/70s. Mostly cloudy days. In the coming days our highs are predicted to be 70s to 80F. Cool/chilly but not bitter cold so far. The statistical nadir of winter is Jan. 10. Then average temps slowly start to rise. Another 6-7 weeks until March 1 when chances of a freeze fall off the chart.

Similar here very mild winter so far. Not as mild as yours, my low was 45.7 on 12/31. We’ve also had some hot days here on and off. It would be great to sneak by with an zn 11 winter this year but like you said we have another 6-7 weeks before we are out of the woods. I’d like to look back through my weather station data to verify but it does feel like a cooler than normal year. 
I wonder other than wetter winters what do El Nino years usually mean for temps? 

[flplantguy]

One thing I have noticed about winter these last two seasons is the records being broken around the world, and the dates the correspond to.  They match up pretty closely to impact freeze years here in Florida.  Today a low pressure system near Alaska broke the record set in 1958 for lowest pressure. And while the date does not match up with the impact freeze exactly, that winter was a bad one here.  I don't think this is coincidence, I think it's a pattern that occurs from time to time and we are in it again. So now that asks the question, if there were impact freezes that year, or a sequence of freezes, then what does it mean if that does not happen now?  It would be nice to see the pattern in advance for a winter, but the data to depend on isn't there yet. And there were not large cities in Florida at the time to offset it with the urban heat island effect. Now it's almost the opposite, more city than rural so there are only "islands" of cold in a sea of concrete.

[ChristianStAug]

28 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

One thing I have noticed about winter these last two seasons is the records being broken around the world, and the dates the correspond to.  They match up pretty closely to impact freeze years here in Florida.  Today a low pressure system near Alaska broke the record set in 1958 for lowest pressure. And while the date does not match up with the impact freeze exactly, that winter was a bad one here.  I don't think this is coincidence, I think it's a pattern that occurs from time to time and we are in it again. So now that asks the question, if there were impact freezes that year, or a sequence of freezes, then what does it mean if that does not happen now?  It would be nice to see the pattern in advance for a winter, but the data to depend on isn't there yet. And there were not large cities in Florida at the time to offset it with the urban heat island effect. Now it's almost the opposite, more city than rural so there are only "islands" of cold in a sea of concrete.

Yes, very interesting question!

[SubTropicRay]

The AO is "only" at -2.5 which does not support the statewide freeze the EURO model was showing.  I know the AO could drop further but it would have to be at -4 or greater now or within a few days for a freeze to occur by the 17-20 time frame.

For west central and SW Florida:

[Rapha2343]

22 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

The question is will the negative NAO wreak havoc on us in the next 4 weeks or so? By mid- late Feb. the chances of a catastrophic freeze a la Jan. 11 2010 fall precipitously. I've experienced a few lows ~37F in late Feb but no freezes. Even in March we can get cold fronts that would have wiped out my gardens had they hit in January. But by March the sun rises so early and shines so strongly cold fronts can't compete.

Yes that's correct. If it doesnt come by mid Feb, it won't come anymore. However, as the models are predicting, its coming exactly in the coldest time of the year. NAO seems like its heading towards neutral and will remain there or slightly negative after Jan 22nd.

 

[Rapha2343]

5 hours ago, SubTropicRay said:

The AO is "only" at -2.5 which does not support the statewide freeze the EURO model was showing.  I know the AO could drop further but it would have to be at -4 or greater now or within a few days for a freeze to occur by the 17-20 time frame.

For west central and SW Florida:

I guess if it indeed freezes, it will happen in northern and central FL. AO would need to be that negative to extend the freeze south.

[ChristianStAug]

41 minutes ago, Rapha2343 said:

I guess if it indeed freezes, it will happen in northern and central FL. AO would need to be that negative to extend the freeze south.

Does anyone know just how negative the NAO was during the Christmas 2022 freeze in North Florida? That event was striking in the near 0 moderation from inland temps to across the ICW and beaches. It keeps haunting.