Hilary ...Is that You??

[Silas_Sancona]

Cue the Memes! ..If you dare!! haha

As Mentioned yesterday, Looking like CA ..and AZ ( to some extent, ..for the moment at least ) could be in for ..Quite the rain event in the days ahead as the next Tropical System gets going in the E. Pac..

What appeared to be the GFS spitting out  yet another .." Celebrated a wee' too much the night before, before a tough morning " " fantasy " Model run last weekend,   appears to be a much more " sober " forecast which needs to be monitored closely over the coming days as there is potential for ...Not only epic rainfall -somewhere- between Cen. AZ, and ..most of.. California starting Friday/ Saturday,  and heading into next week ...but also the ..remote.. ..but not  un-heard of ( ...Emphasis on that )  possibility of a legit Tropical storm making a landfall somewhere in S. Cal ( *** Dependant on the track as the storm approaches *** )

For now, here's the current thoughts from the NHC ( Nat. Hurricane Center ) ..12Z GFS 'Skeddy Plot, and  ***Potential*** 12Z rainfall totals.

Current NHC forecast Plot:



Current 12Z GEFS 'Skeddy Plot:



Tidbits 12Z rainfall total **Potential** thru next Thursday:



Pivitol 12 GFS Rainfall Total Potential:



ECMWF Hi - Res Rainfall Total Potential:




NWS Quantitive Precip. outlook for next week :





*** Side-Note:  Again, Nothing   is set in stone at this point,  and much can change between now and Friday, ...let alone Monday..  Hilary could still veer well offshore of S. Cal,  ...or take a trip up the Gulf, directly through AZ..

Regardless, Majority of the WX models ( GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, ...Etc.. ) are picking up on this system and have been agreeing on a fairly consistent " Idea " of where Ol' Hil may go later..


More to come later  ....Maybe MUCH more...   Daniel Swain ( Weather West ) will have a lot more regarding finate details to keep an 👀 on  on his personal site / Youtube as well over the coming days.. Will post his WX West blog updates later.

Let the Memes begin!.. 🙃

[flplantguy]

I hope people are ready that will fill up the salton sea again.

[Silas_Sancona]

40 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

I hope people are ready that will fill up the salton sea again.

Doubt it would be enough to fill.  Could add a few inches though..  Intentional pun, or none, Vegas could be a " crapshoot " for sure though.

4PM update from the NHC:

** For the moment **  No, thine eyes don't deceive.. That's a " S " depicted in the cone over S. Cal for 1pm on Monday.  ( S = Tropical Storm )

[Hillizard]

I wouldn't mind some hurricane weather visiting NorCal. My outdoor thermometer in the shade is reading 111 deg F. (43.9 C) right now. Even thinking is making me sweat!😬 At some point I'll need to go out this evening and hand-water my scorched, wilted garden.

[Silas_Sancona]

25 minutes ago, Hillizard said:

I wouldn't mind some hurricane weather visiting NorCal. My outdoor thermometer in the shade is reading 111 deg F. (43.9 C) right now. Even thinking is making me sweat!😬 At some point I'll need to go out this evening and hand-water my scorched, wilted garden.

Putting out " Hurricane Bait " here also.. 

Hit exactly 111F today also..  Humid also.  " Chandler Storm Shield / Deterrent " has been relentless the past few days too.. Iso. Storms all around, but a big blue hole above 🤣

[JLM]

Given SSTs off the coast of NW Mexico are at or below 70F (at least 80F needed to grow or sustain), i find it highly unlikely that this reaches California as a legit tropical cyclone. The "S" does mean tropical storm on the forecast cone, although the color of that dot in particular is the difference. It is white, which means it is post tropical. In other words, no longer a tropical cyclone but rather the remnants of said tropical cyclone. Still, the 40 mph winds forecasted at that point would exist.

Regardless of status, lots of moisture will be heading north and the biggest thing here will be flooding, and i do hope people are preparing for that threat.

[Silas_Sancona]

16 minutes ago, JLM said:

Given SSTs off the coast of NW Mexico are at or below 70F (at least 80F needed to grow or sustain), i find it highly unlikely that this reaches California as a legit tropical cyclone. The "S" does mean tropical storm on the forecast cone, although the color of that dot in particular is the difference. It is white, which means it is post tropical. In other words, no longer a tropical cyclone but rather the remnants of said tropical cyclone.  Still, the 40 mph winds forecasted at that point would exist.

Regardless of status, lots of moisture will be heading north and the biggest thing here will be flooding, and i do hope people are preparing for that threat.

Would carefully study your E. Pac. Hurricane history..  It has occurred before. 

As far as SSTs go, If Hilary progresses north fast enough, it could reach ..San Diego ..at the very least.. as a bare bones TS before the cooler waters along the coast could completely kill it. 

Back in the 90s, a depression made it as far north as just off Santa Cruz / Monterrey, Something many folks at that time thought wasn't possible.   Enjoyed a rare summer night of soupy warm stratiform rain and some storms from that event in San Jose.

Flooding, issues w/ wind in certain areas, due to the unique topography ..in S.Cal esp,  Storm - generated surf ..For the islands and S. facing beaches / infrastructure poking out into the water esp.  are going to be the biggest things to watch.  Though not mentioned -yet- i'm also curious about the remote chances of ..Minor as it might be.. any inundation in a few areas where such a set up would be most ideal.

As said, a fun weekend ahead..

Giving the " Legit TS makes a landfall on the coast, somewhere in S. Cal " possibility a 35% chance of occurring myself..  If   Hilary doesn't grind against Baja as she heads north.

[JLM]

51 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Would carefully study your E. Pac. Hurricane history..  It has occurred before. 

As far as SSTs go, If Hilary progresses north fast enough, it could reach ..San Diego ..at the very least.. as a bare bones TS before the cooler waters along the coast could completely kill it. 

Back in the 90s, a depression made it as far north as just off Santa Cruz / Monterrey, Something many folks at that time thought wasn't possible.   Enjoyed a rare summer night of soupy warm stratiform rain and some storms from that event in San Jose.

Flooding, issues w/ wind in certain areas, due to the unique topography ..in S.Cal esp,  Storm - generated surf ..For the islands and S. facing beaches / infrastructure poking out into the water esp.  are going to be the biggest things to watch.  Though not mentioned -yet- i'm also curious about the remote chances of ..Minor as it might be.. any inundation in a few areas where such a set up would be most ideal.

As said, a fun weekend ahead..

Giving the " Legit TS makes a landfall on the coast, somewhere in S. Cal " possibility a 35% chance of occurring myself..  If   Hilary doesn't grind against Baja as she heads north.

I’ve seen plenty of it recently because of Hilary lol
 

Im not saying it can’t happen, just saying the chance seems minimal. In most cases, they end up turning post tropical sometimes just before they reach SoCal, so there is a chance it’s just not a good one. 
 

As for a minor storm surge, if it were to directly make landfall in SoCal (tropical or post tropical), there would probably be some very minor coastal flooding issues. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall is a given regardless of status though, so hopefully everyone is prepared for that. Particularly the rainfall, the wind wouldn’t be anything y’all haven’t experienced before just instead of bone dry it would be very wet lol

[Silas_Sancona]

2 minutes ago, JLM said:

I’ve seen plenty of it recently because of Hilary lol
 

Im not saying it can’t happen, just saying the chance seems minimal. In most cases, they end up turning post tropical sometimes just before they reach SoCal, so there is a chance it’s just not a good one. 
 

As for a minor storm surge, if it were to directly make landfall in SoCal (tropical or post tropical), there would probably be some very minor coastal flooding issues. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall is a given regardless of status though, so hopefully everyone is prepared for that. Particularly the rainfall, the wind wouldn’t be anything y’all haven’t experienced before just instead of bone dry it would be very wet lol

Seen vs. studied, in depth ..let alone experienced,  first hand  are a few different things.. 

Agree, minimal chance, ..but increasing each day  ..For now at least.   We'll see if it turns out like Linda in the end..  Regardless, " Minimal chance " is all that is needed to open the door.

As far as Tropical system- generated rainfall and wind..  Last year we had Kay, ... Been several other similar events that brought decent, summer rainfall and breezes to -at least- S. Cal. since i was born,  ...4-ish decades ago. No green behind the ears level of experience here  

 

[Silas_Sancona]

NHC 9am update:



Increasing my odds of this happening to 45%.   'Hil avoids getting hung up on the Baja Spur, those odds add another 20% 

Potential for a Tropical Depression passing over Tahoe / Reno are pretty wild as well.

Perspective on the rarity of the situation from forecaster Ben Noll:

[PalmatierMeg]

19 hours ago, Hillizard said:

I wouldn't mind some hurricane weather visiting NorCal. My outdoor thermometer in the shade is reading 111 deg F. (43.9 C) right now. Even thinking is making me sweat!😬 At some point I'll need to go out this evening and hand-water my scorched, wilted garden.

Be careful what you wish for. TS winds combined with 6-8” of rain = fallen trees everywhere

People here in SWFL learned a painful lesson from Hurricane Charley in 2004. “Never happen here again” turned into “Wha’ happened?”

[Aceraceae]

The S is now a tropical S over California. 

[Silas_Sancona]

12 minutes ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Be careful what you wish for. TS winds combined with 6-8” of rain = fallen trees everywhere

People here in SWFL learned a painful lesson from Hurricane Charley in 2004. “Never happen here again” turned into “Wha’ happened?”

That's true in FL.. Generally though, wind from tropical systems behave a bit differently here in the west.  Depending on the track, wind / damage from it could be an issue in some areas for sure, mainly in S. Cal.

That said,  topography will be the bigger influence over where the bigger winds are seen out here,  rather than effecting a wide, flat area. 

[Silas_Sancona]

9 minutes ago, Aceraceae said:

The S is now a tropical S over California. 

Here's the wild part:  ( Which i'm taking as a " fantasy " thought  ..for now.   )

Today's 12Z GFS is already hinting at another  tropical " something " drenching S. CA around Sept. 1st.  As said above, don't believe it ..but,  this year being ..this year, 🤷‍♂️ 

Maybe that one will pay Phoenix and the overall valley a visit.. " Hurricane " bait is out,  lol.

[Silas_Sancona]

NHC update:  I fully anticipate Baja Sur to be under Hurricane warnings as the storm gets closer.  I hope our PT friends in Cabo and Todo Santos are already taking precautions..  Also will be watching to see if  'Hil  hangs onto " major " strength as she passes the Baja Spur.



A few words from the PHX NWS



Flood watches hoisted    ..Get any plans in order if  anywhere  in those areas  NOW..





First look at a rapidly strengthening Hilary via COD True Color.. On the way to Cat. 4 soon.  For the E. Pac, that is one beautiful storm..

[JLM]

NWS offices in San Diego and Los Angeles were given capabilities of issuing tropical products (Tropical Storm Watch/Warning, Hurricane Watch/Warning) back in May, seems possible that may be put into use as Hilary climbs the coast of Mexico. 

[Silas_Sancona]

47 minutes ago, JLM said:

NWS offices in San Diego and Los Angeles were given capabilities of issuing tropical products (Tropical Storm Watch/Warning, Hurricane Watch/Warning) back in May, seems possible that may be put into use as Hilary climbs the coast of Mexico. 

True true, though i believe the discussions surrounding hoisting such advisories -on this coast-  started after Linda, in 1997..   No one could say how soon they might actually be put into use though.

Interesting times ahead regardless..

[Hillizard]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1692135550072041720

 

[Chris Chance]

This is getting wild. They now expect Hillary to be a tropical storm status when she gets here! A lot of us here in Southern California are directly in the path. Time to fertilize the garden. 

[Silas_Sancona]

3 minutes ago, Chris Chance said:

This is getting wild. They now expect Hillary to be a tropical storm status when she gets here! A lot of us here in Southern California are directly in the path. Time to fertilize the garden. 

  Just saw that too.. Pretty crazy.. Even crazier thought of the day: Can Hilary cross, into CA   ...as a ..minimal Hurricane??









Agree 100%, can't ask for a more perfect opportunity to get some fertilizer spread around..

 

[Chris Chance]

1 minute ago, Silas_Sancona said:

  Just saw that too.. Pretty crazy.. Even crazier thought of the day: Can Hilary cross, into CA   ...as a ..minimal Hurricane??









Agree 100%, can't ask for a more perfect opportunity to get some fertilizer spread around..

 

Crazy to think it's just a few days out. Personally I'm not worried about flooding in my location and I don't plan on going anywhere so I'll have fun making videos.  My worry is wind and the possibility of tornados.

[Silas_Sancona]

5 minutes ago, Chris Chance said:

Crazy to think it's just a few days out. Personally I'm not worried about flooding in my location and I don't plan on going anywhere so I'll have fun making videos.  My worry is wind and the possibility of tornados.

That's an interesting aspect worth watching for sure... Wind may not be any worse than when the Santa Annas are blowing, Which can still cause issues of course.. on the west side of the mountains at least. East slopes could see worse effects. 

Any potential Tornadic activity could be dependant on where 'Hil passes.. More " over  the coast,  but not ON  the coast, ..maybe less threat.. Wobbles slightly offshore as she approaches / passes ...Say whatever center of it is left passes through the Bight ( Between the Islands and immediate coast, ) that might up the chances a little more..

How quickly it passes over the area will influence that threat as well..  Can see a situation where that threat could become more of a concern -minor as it may be, overall- as the leftover circulation heads north / northeast over the Cen. Valley..  Just have to wait and see how things play out..

Valid Flash Flood concerns aside, i'm sure most will enjoy a good summer soaking, vs more hot and dry, ..except this year ( The extended cool / chillier than usual weather out there this Spring / start of Summer ).

[Desertlife4me]

My wife is at the hardware store buying sand bags as I type this, we are taking this seriously.

Wish I had the time to trim some more trees, but we have been having thunder storms roll through the last few days, one is over us now.

 

[Silas_Sancona]

From Daniel Swain:   Would check out Weather West /  updates from him thru the weekend.

[Silas_Sancona]

4 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

From Daniel Swain:   Would check out Weather West /  updates from him thru the weekend.

PHX NWS AM Discussion:

[Desertlife4me]

our local fire department is handing out sandbags, people are coming out to the desert to get sand/gravel to fill them. 

 

I just bought a generator and got 15 gallons of gas, I'll be filling sandbags today and tomorrow, I have elderly neighbors who may need them as well.

[PalmatierMeg]

3 hours ago, Desertlife4me said:

our local fire department is handing out sandbags, people are coming out to the desert to get sand/gravel to fill them. 

 

I just bought a generator and got 15 gallons of gas, I'll be filling sandbags today and tomorrow, I have elderly neighbors who may need them as well.

I can relate - been there, done that. Sending best wishes to everyone out there.

Question: Do you have enough gas? After Ian, we ran our 9000 watt generator 12-14 hours per day. We ran it outdoors away from the house because of carbon monoxide, then turned it off and moved it into the garage at night to foil thieves. We used 5-6 gallons of gas per day and were without electricity for a week. We used less than 50 gallons of gas but our supply would not have lasted near that long if we had run our generator 24 hours per day.

P.S. - be sure your gas is ethanol-free (“boat gas” it’s called in FL) or the additive will clog the generator’s carburetor.

[Silas_Sancona]

3PM NHC update:



Also:

" Hurricane local statement " has been expanded to about Santa Maria. Pretty much everyone from Santa Barbara south and east is under a T.S. Watch..

" Tropical Storm Warning "  product issued off of the coast of Baja Norte, just south of San Diego,  has been elevated to Hurricane Warning.. Which is kind of a surprise since that is not what the NHC has pained for that section of the peninsula.. We'll see which -if any-  changes are made to any of the " Tropical Storm Watch " areas over coastal S. Cal. ( San Diego County specifically ) this evening..

Edited August 18, 2023 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[Tracy]

Not looking forward to this after the winter and spring we had.  Been keeping an eye on this and prepping as best as possible.  One piece of good news for us is that there is no storm surge and checked the tides which only hit 5' on the San Diego Bay.  One of the bigger flooding issues occurs when we have high tides or king tides coinciding with major rain events so there is no place for the runoff to go.  I've experienced that a few times over the years. 

[Silas_Sancona]

As thought: T.S. " Watch " upgraded to " warning for a majority of S. Cal.

[Cristóbal]

Live track

 

https://zoom.earth/storms/hilary-2023/#map=wind-speed/model=icon

[JLM]

Hurricane Local Statements are issued for the entirety of that local forecast office's coverage area. If a tropical alert has been issued for that region, a Hurricane Local Statement will exist regardless of whether a particular zone is under a Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watch or Warning. It details the expected impacts. Also, land zones are different than marine zones. With this, a hurricane warning can be in place for the marine zones, or offshore waters, while a tropical storm warning is in place for land areas. The alert thats in place for land areas is what will reflect on the NHC graphic.

The biggest threat here is the flooding, which could potentially be catastrophic.

All of SoCal is expecting 2-4 inches, with many areas getting 4-6 inches of rainfall. Higher amounts of 6-10 inches are possible locally, and theres even a spot or two of 10-15 inches on that map. This is more rain than some of these areas experience *per year*. Preparations should be underway, and should be completed tomorrow if possible. While the storm itself will not arrive until Sunday, the firehose of moisture starts tomorrow. If you live in normally flood prone areas, you especially need to have a plan to leave if necessary. Another hazard which is unique to this situation is the potential for mudslides. 

For wind, gusts up to or over hurricane force may be possible over higher elevations. Low elevations expecting tropical storm force winds at max. 

Edited August 19, 2023 by JLM

[Silas_Sancona]

15 minutes ago, JLM said:

Hurricane Local Statements are issued for the entirety of that local forecast office's coverage area. If a tropical alert has been issued for that region, a Hurricane Local Statement will exist regardless of whether a particular zone is under a Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watch or Warning. It details the expected impacts. Also, land zones are different than marine zones. With this, a hurricane warning can be in place for the marine zones, or offshore waters, while a tropical storm warning is in place for land areas. The alert thats in place for land areas is what will reflect on the NHC graphic.

The biggest threat here is the flooding, which could potentially be catastrophic.

All of SoCal is expecting 2-4 inches, with many areas getting 4-6 inches of rainfall. Higher amounts of 6-10 inches are possible locally, and theres even a spot or two of 10-15 inches on that map. This is more rain than some of these areas experience *per year*. Preparations should be underway, and should be completed tomorrow if possible. While the storm itself will not arrive until Sunday, the firehose of moisture starts tomorrow. If you live in normally flood prone areas, you especially need to have a plan to leave if necessary. Another hazard which is unique to this situation is the potential for mudslides. 

For wind, gusts up to or over hurricane force may be possible over higher elevations. Low elevations expecting tropical storm force winds at max. 

Everything Daniel Swain has already covered through the day....

[Aceraceae]

The water off mid baja is actually cooler than average right now despite the marine heat wave off the central coast further north and west. Its track is right over the coolest water around. The gulf of california is the only hot water in the east Pacific above 20 North latitude. IF the SST anomaly was high along the coast vs where it is to the northwest, and the gulf water was hot as it is now too, then it could make SoCal as declining but still as a hurricane. Just as now it will landfall as a 50 or 60 mph tropical storm over 71 degree water, it would be a major still this evening vs only 100 mph at 6 pm, and it would be weakening less over 77 degree water and hit San Diego or LA as cat 1 hurricane, at least along the very coast until it hit the mountainous topography. 

[Silas_Sancona]

15 minutes ago, Aceraceae said:

The water off mid baja is actually cooler than average right now despite the marine heat wave off the central coast further north and west. Its track is right over the coolest water around. The gulf of california is the only hot water in the east Pacific above 20 North latitude. IF the SST anomaly was high along the coast vs where it is to the northwest, and the gulf water was hot as it is now too, then it could make SoCal as declining but still as a hurricane. Just as now it will landfall as a 50 or 60 mph tropical storm over 71 degree water, it would be a major still this evening vs only 100 mph at 6 pm, and it would be weakening less over 77 degree water and hit San Diego or LA as cat 1 hurricane, at least along the very coast until it hit the mountainous topography. 

This is true, so no, definitely not reaching S. Cal. as a Hurricane -this time..   As a Tropical Storm?? ..that's the big question..  From how the track is looking atm, i think it's going to be really close  ..that or it comes ashore -as a T.S.  really close to Ensenada or T.J..  Any wobbling, esp. to the west, could keep the center over water jussttt long enough to reach San Diego as a T.S.  We'll see.. Impacts will still be the same and even here, we could see a period of winds in the 25-40mph range sometime tomorrow.

6PM NHC update:



Regarding water temps.. True the storm will be loosing power due to the cooler waters it will be passing over now north of 25N.  I didn't save what he'd mentioned, but Dan Swain explained how down-sloping winds, from the mountains in Baja, could actually help the storm retain a little more strength a tad longer than usual, due in part to how quickly she's moving..  Some warm / moist air being moved west through gaps in the mountains in Baja from the Gulf could also add a skosh of extra energy -briefly at least-  

Are a couple examples of those fascinating and completely alien -to anyone back east- quirks that defines the unique-ness of Meteorology in the Western U.S. And why if someone hasn't lived here, you're not going to understand those quirks here.. 




On a side note:  an interesting set up trying to unfold on the current COD True color Sat. view across the Central Valley atm as moisture ahead of Hilary interacts w/ the COL ( Cut Off Low ) sitting somewhere just to the west of Point Conception..  Going to be close, but some of the Thunderstorm activity forming just west of Fresno could spill over the Diablo Range into parts of the South or East Bay ( Area )  Another one of those uncommon things you rarely see in this part of CA all that often. 



As for Hilary,  she's on the way..  I hope everyone in the system's path is taking the necessary precautions, and evacuating where ...and when.. told to,  if not now ..esp. in the deserts east of San Diego and Los Angeles.. 

FYI .. The Timmer has landed in CA., Again.. Also heard Cantore may be lurking on a beach somewhere as well..  Be afraid, slightly afraid, lol..

[JubaeaMan138]

Yep looks like I’m going to be flooded out here before too long . Honestly I’m welcoming it . Looking forward to it dumping on us and then high 90 degree temps days later . 🤙not looking forward to the weeds though . 

[JubaeaMan138]

Going to give me a couple days off of watering . Normally takes me a few hours every evening 

[DoomsDave]

Hilary (Buffy if you prefer!  🤪) is here, or getting here, in the northern OC. 

[Butch]

My Wife and I were staying at San Clemente State Camp Ground for about a week, with our Son's family to spend last night with us... With Hurricane Hilary heading our way, we were debating hunkering down or heading for home... Since it will be a tropical storm, and not a hurricane when it gets here, I was not too concerned about getting blown away or flooded (no chance of flash flooding in this particular spot)... My biggest concern was falling eucalyptus trees, and flying branches... The campground was almost empty, and when a couple of park rangers and camp host starting laying out sandbags, I asked them if they were going to close the camp ground or recommend leaving.. They said that they had heard nothing either way... This was about noon yesterday... My Son and I started putting away anything not needed, whether we stayed or not... About 3PM a park ranger drove up and said we should leave, but wouldn't make us, but was almost sure he would be back later and tell us to get out.... We took the hint, and finished packing up, and along with most every other camper, headed home... I don't know what the Camp Host were going to do, as most of them were almost residents... I see on the web, that all of the state campgrounds in SO Cal are closed down this AM... It is a pretty steady rain, here in NO OC, this morning with some wind gust, ahead of the storm...
Butch

[tinman10101]

woohoo 2.75" of rain so far today in Santa Clarita