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PNW - 3rd La Nina Winter in a row weather talk


Chester B
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So we all know this triple dip La Nina is a rarity, and starting off looking pretty bad.

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I read that the Pacific Northwest is expected to be below average from Nov-Jan whilst northern and western southern Europe will be above average. Hopefully you don't have any bad freezes. From looking at those temperatures and comparing them to how mild London's forecast is I'd say its probably accurate which is unfortunate for the Pacific Northwest

 

Edited by Foxpalms
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White stuff on the ground (had to stay warm somehow!) around 700m ASL today. Probably a good 5cm and still accumulating when I left for home. 
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Meanwhile, the forecast looks downright frigid up here next week. I guess I’ll say bye bye to my tenders for the year, but at least it’s not palm killing cold. Yet. 

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -5.4C (so far!)

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Those are some pretty low daytime highs for this time of year for sure @ShadyDan.  I'm hoping the weather forecast backs off a bit.

@FoxpalmsI have been seeing the great weather you all have been getting.  I wouldn't be surprised if things flip next year and we're warm and you're cold.  We always seem to be the inverse of what happens in the UK during winter.

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9 minutes ago, Chester B said:

Those are some pretty low daytime highs for this time of year for sure @ShadyDan.  I'm hoping the weather forecast backs off a bit.

@FoxpalmsI have been seeing the great weather you all have been getting.  I wouldn't be surprised if things flip next year and we're warm and you're cold.  We always seem to be the inverse of what happens in the UK during winter.

Maybe, you had a warm September and in London it was slightly above average with above average rainfall and not as many sunshine hours. Though around late July to late August, Europe and the Pacific Northwest were both warm/hot. Even if we do I think next summer will stilly be fairly warm. The predictions from the metoffice are northern Europe from 2022-2026 will be the warmest 4 years on record.

 

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Hear my latest temperature forecast!  It’s not looking great and there is a definite chill in the air with wet snow/rain in around Greater Vancouver last night. Foxpalms you guys in the UK are having some nice temps. Can definitely see climate change happening with all those huge palms and exotics! 

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@southpacific73 those are some cold temperatures for November. London's forecast is looking very mild. The average temperature for the next week is warmer than san Francisco's at 51n and the sun will not be strong at this time of the year.

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Edited by Foxpalms
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Foxpalms unfortunately yes it’s cold!  We are getting hit with this triple La Niña pattern again! That’s so crazy you guys will be warmer than San Francisco!  Enjoy the warmth for us!

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Pretty big wind event last night knocked out power for 330,000 of us Islanders. NW winds down the straight picked up super quick last night around 8pm. I lost power around 830pm and it came back on around 2am. Lots of leaf blowers and chainsaws going this morning, at least it’s a nice day! 

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -5.4C (so far!)

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There might be a frost or two for Portland, but nothing too bad for you guys. The single digit C highs don't look too nice though. Salt Spring Island in BC where that Banana Joe guy is based has a low of -6C forecast and about 3 days where it won't get above freezing already. Frosts forecast every single night as well in foreseeable future too. Yikes!

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London's nights are going to be significantly warmer than Los Angeles next week and a shade warmer than Phoenix, AZ even. On Tuesday next week London will be warmer than LA by both day and night, which shows how cool the west coast of North America will be. Will this be a sign of things to come this winter, or is it just a freak cold spell?

If the UK wasn't so far away from the equator and lacking sunshine intensity at this stage of the year, our daytime highs would be smashing LA. Instead our days and nights are quite similar here with minimal diurnal swings due to lack of solar heating. The nights are as mild as you could possibly get for anywhere in the world this far from the equator (51N). 

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@southpacific73 The coldest nighttime low forecasted in London is still going to be higher than the warmest day anywhere in BC next week. The town of Lytton, which holds the highest all-time Canadian temperature record now, has two nights down to -15C / 5F forecasted already next week. A real nasty and early taste of winter for the PNW. No doubt linked to the ongoing La Nina cycle as we go into winter now. 

@Chester B One positive is that La Nina is dying out and may be neutral again as early as December or January. It does look like Na Nina's days are numbered now. The trade easterlies have dropped massively in recent weeks, so it is weakening. Unless we have the first ever case of a quadruple dip La Nina (highly unlikely), then we should be back to neutral within a month or two. Perhaps then a switch to El Nino by about April time. I wouldn't rule out an extreme El Nino next year.

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You can see the drop off in temperature anomaly for the west coast of South America. It is nowhere near as extreme compared to say a month ago. There are even a few above average (orange/red) spots appearing in the currents off the west coast of south America. A further sign that it is weakening, combined with a reduction in easterly trade winds.

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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Uk_Palms that’s some good information! I use the NWS climate prediction center (US) and Tropical Tidbits for future forecasts and trends. Hopefully you’re right in the break down of La Niña as I don’t think I could handle a 4th year! Snowfall warning issued for my location now! ShadyDan had wicked winds here in the mainland also last night.  Lots of trees have gone down all over Vancouver .Maybe a white Christmas 🎄for PNW?

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I had the winds last night too, along with some torrential rain.  Today ended up being sunny and dry which they weren't calling for.

I have heard that La Nina is dying out and if it does by the end of the year that would be great.  An early warm spring would be nice.  Just finished some last minute winter preps for the garden due to the dry weather.  Provided rain shelters for my largest Washingtonia robusta and Brahea armata.  Red banana got dug up ahead of any frost.  Queen palms have been moved to the garage as well, but they were pretty heavy.

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@UK_PalmsNot a chance Saltspring will see -6. At sea level at least. Not sure we’re that forecast is pulling its data from. 

Latest forecast models have me at -1 for the absolute low. I’ll take it as long as I get the forecasted sunshine too! 

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -5.4C (so far!)

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Holy cow. The forecast for Calgary is absolutely insane for this early on in the season. Lows of -24C / -12F next week and a daytime high of just -15C / 5F. Calgary at 51.0N is technically closer to the equator than London at 51.3N. So despite being about 25 miles further south, Calgary will be almost 35C / 65F colder than London's lowest temperature next week. The phrase 'worlds apart' comes to mind, despite both places being at the same latitude, more or less. Regardless this is clearly a brutal early cold spell for western Canada and USA.

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Looks like 99% of the US mainland is going to see below average temps during mid-November.

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Edited by UK_Palms
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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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15 hours ago, Chester B said:

I had the winds last night too, along with some torrential rain.  Today ended up being sunny and dry which they weren't calling for.

I have heard that La Nina is dying out and if it does by the end of the year that would be great.  An early warm spring would be nice.  Just finished some last minute winter preps for the garden due to the dry weather.  Provided rain shelters for my largest Washingtonia robusta and Brahea armata.  Red banana got dug up ahead of any frost.  Queen palms have been moved to the garage as well, but they were pretty heavy.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/october-2022-la-niña-update-snack-size

This La Nina has been in control most of the time for 20 years now.  Other NOAA reports say that on average La Nina's control weather twice as long as El Nino's and the way they stack up the PNW seems to get the cold and wet mostly during our winter months.  

On a touchy subject and probably taboo to many, one has to wonder just how much the "Weather Modification" programs are effecting these weather patterns.  I don't pretend to know  or understand everything that's going on, but I am not totally naive to ignore what I see, smell and hear.  

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@UK_PalmsCalagary is no stranger to wild temperature swings, being a high elevation (~1,000m) continental city. Extreme cold temperatures this time of are certainly not unheard of. Conversely, due to its base at the Rocky Mountains, chinook winds can raise the temperature in the city to over 20C in the dead of winter. 
 

@Banana Beltbesides human induced climate change, there are certainly no “weather modification programs” that can influence global weather patterns to the scale of La Niña. 

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -5.4C (so far!)

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Looks like tonight I will be getting my first frost of the year.  This is right in line with my average first frost date.

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First sub-zero night of the year. Glad to see my thermostat and x-mas lights still work. Doesn’t look like it will get too cold and supposed to warm back up to +6 tomorrow with lots of sunshine. 
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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -5.4C (so far!)

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I hit 31F with light frost.  I have what I'm calling a grow box, that I made with the leftovers of my greenhouse that got smashed a couple years back.  Your photo made me go check on it, and my lights came on as well.  It's staying 10F about ambient temps so that's pretty good.  I'll be right at 50F/10C all week, most nights close to freezing.

 

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Dipped down to -1C last night briefly, but started warming up around midnight. Currently 3.5C with no sub-zero temperatures in the forecast anymore, hurray! Now I have to spend some time cutting back my dahlias, bananas,  brugs, and everything else that got fried with the cold.

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -5.4C (so far!)

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The frost we had was pretty light. Bananas and the rest still green and growing. Looks like some colder dry weather this weekend, so unlikely to make it past then. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

A comparison of note at least for me, was that I noticed M. acuminata leaves turned black at a very light ephemeral frost whereas M. basjoo remained mainly green. Again, for some unknown reason, photos will not load right side up. This began a week or more ago.

 

 

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We've had a series of fires start up last week due to high winds and lack of moisture in the ground.  Small scale evacuations in place and they have them contained fortunately.  One of the three counties that make up the Portland area has reinstated a burn ban.  My plants are definitely suffering from the lack of rain and me not watering them.  Rain tomorrow but then back to dry again until around the 27th unless that gets pushed out.

My Musa basjoo are crispy and freeze dried in appearance due to a week of strong dessicating winds.

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On 11/22/2022 at 12:23 AM, Chester B said:

We've had a series of fires start up last week due to high winds and lack of moisture in the ground.  Small scale evacuations in place and they have them contained fortunately.  One of the three counties that make up the Portland area has reinstated a burn ban.  My plants are definitely suffering from the lack of rain and me not watering them.  Rain tomorrow but then back to dry again until around the 27th unless that gets pushed out.

My Musa basjoo are crispy and freeze dried in appearance due to a week of strong dessicating winds.

I’m surprised by just how dry it has been for you guys in the PNW if you have been getting fires there still? November is normally supposed to be your 2nd wettest month, but it looks like you have had it pretty cool/cold and abnormally dry over the past few weeks there, whereas we have had it quite mild and very wet. Almost the exact opposite to you.

Southern England had the most/highest concentration of wildfires per square mile in the entire world during the summer, but they stopped a while back now due to all the autumn rain. Back in early November, I had more rain in 1 hour than I had over the entire summer. Also more rain in the first week of November than the entire January - September period.

It has been a pretty wet autumn/fall for us and will likely finish as the wettest November on record here. October was pretty wet too, but September less so. No chance of any more fires here though until the spring now I think. I have had 10-11 inches of rain now this autumn, which accounts for about 70% of my annual total this year. How much rain have you guys had since 1st September?

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Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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21 hours ago, southpacific73 said:

Another wave of cold arctic air coming to the PNW!

84F590E9-76B0-4FA6-BA06-A7038EEFA195.png

Yeah not good, I'm seeing disagreements in the models around here as to the temps, but they are all predicting a cool/cold trend starting on Dec 1 for my area.  The local meteorologists have highs around 5C with some nights dropping below freezing to about -3C.  Apps are saying lower.

 

4 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

How much rain have you guys had since 1st September?

Portland has gotten approximately 4" since September first, but really you can take that same number back to mid June.

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Weather app is showing -9C for me now next Friday. Its pretty far out still and they tend to over estimate the cold that far out. Environment Canada is usually more reliable for these cold events, but their forecast only goes to Wednesday right now (-1C for the lowest). I'm sure we will have a better idea on how ugly things will get by Monday.

We have collected 89mm in October and November so far. 0.25mm in September and 0mm in August. 17mm in July then the taps turned off on July 18th for the summer until late October.

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Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -5.4C (so far!)

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2 hours ago, Chester B said:

Portland has gotten approximately 4" since September first, but really you can take that same number back to mid June.

Yeah that really is nothing, especially this late on in the year now. You really should be getting a lot more, otherwise it will cause knock on effects next year. I had zero rainfall from mid-June to late-August here and only 0.8 inches across the entire summer. As soon as October got here though the rains properly arrived. One of the Met stations about 20 miles southeast of me in Sussex has racked up a staggering 13.9 inches of rain already this month with another week left to go still. The drought is a distant memory here now after the wettest November on record. Hopefully your rains arrive soon to keep the temps mild during winter and hopefully you get a wet spring too.

Dry-summer Oceanic climate (9a)

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

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A lot of different numbers as to the highs and lows in the apps and different weather sites. Snow is definitely in the forecast. Thursday and Friday are the coldest days -3/-8c and -1/-6c. Time to wrap up all the palms that aren’t in the greenhouse! Chester B at least your temps are reasonable. ShadyDan and me for sure will get the brunt of it. Memories of last year when I lost a lot of plants! Uk_Palms love your posts! Maybe someday we will  be like you with climate change but not betting on it.

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9 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

I’m surprised by just how dry it has been for you guys in the PNW if you have been getting fires there still? November is normally supposed to be your 2nd wettest month, but it looks like you have had it pretty cool/cold and abnormally dry over the past few weeks there, whereas we have had it quite mild and very wet. Almost the exact opposite to you.

Southern England had the most/highest concentration of wildfires per square mile in the entire world during the summer, but they stopped a while back now due to all the autumn rain. Back in early November, I had more rain in 1 hour than I had over the entire summer. Also more rain in the first week of November than the entire January - September period.

It has been a pretty wet autumn/fall for us and will likely finish as the wettest November on record here. October was pretty wet too, but September less so. No chance of any more fires here though until the spring now I think. I have had 10-11 inches of rain now this autumn, which accounts for about 70% of my annual total this year. How much rain have you guys had since 1st September?

Normally oct-nov is the wettest period, so maybe as the summers become hotter and drier oct-nov will become wetter and milder. It definitely looks like it will be more dry next week, maybe the abnormally wet conditions will end and the weather will return back to normal conditions, then around late spring the very dry conditions will return.  

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Looking much more favourable now. Shouldn’t see any issues from these temperatures. 9421218C-5F3F-4480-9AA0-335398FC1558.thumb.png.81be975fb2a225dd96cb6d3fdfa3b63e.png

Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -5.4C (so far!)

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Everyday I've checked in the past few has gradually gotten better south of Seattle. The temperatures are trending up and as of this morning looking like no accumulations except maybe 1 inch on friday. I remember last week it called for a high in the low 20s now the lows are round 30. 

Hope for better trends for everyone else in the region. Thankfully this looks like the last la nina winter.

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44 minutes ago, nick206 said:

Everyday I've checked in the past few has gradually gotten better south of Seattle. The temperatures are trending up and as of this morning looking like no accumulations except maybe 1 inch on friday. I remember last week it called for a high in the low 20s now the lows are round 30. 

Hope for better trends for everyone else in the region. Thankfully this looks like the last la nina winter.

Even better this morning. At this rate it’s looking like sea level snow is off the table and absolute lows should be -2 to -3C for my area. No days failing to rise above 0 as well. No real warm up to seasonal temperatures in the long range however, but that’s not a deal breaker.
 

I’ll try not to jinx it, but I’d be quite content if this was our worst arctic outbreak for the year. 

Zone 8b, Csb (Warm-summer Mediterranean climate). 1,940 annual sunshine hours 
Annual lows-> 19/20: -5.0C, 20/21: -5.5C, 21/22: -8.3C, 22/23: -5.4C (so far!)

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