UK Winter 2022/23 & rainy season

[UK_Palms]

I figure I better do a thread for this coming winter so that I am not clogging up the 'what is your current yard temperature' thread again. So far it has been incredibly mild and almost summer-like at times. The rain and unsettled windier conditions have arrived though as the Atlantic oceanic influence has reestablished, taking over from the high pressure, subtropical ridging associated with the Azores high and Csb conditions in southern England. No sign of any cold potential though yet, assuming we even get any this coming winter.

ECMWF has temps pushing 26-27C / 80F on Halloween in London and southeast England. A far cry from the weather that we used to experience say 30-40 years ago. Looking at the stats, it appears temperatures have warmed by 3-4C / 6-8F since 1900 nowadays in London. That is amongst the most aggressive warming on the planet, along with eastern China.

 

Here's the GFS output. Europe in general is baking. Our cold in the UK generally comes from the east/northeast, where there is no cold yet (Germany, Poland, Baltic, Scandinavia etc). So winter can't really get going yet at all. We're probably going to see mid 70's F in London during first week of November. Crazy if that verifies, given the northern latitude and proximity to an ocean.

 

I am having to run my bedside fan in the evenings already again as my bedroom temperature is hovering around the 25C / 77F mark, which is a bit uncomfortable for sleeping, especially now it is more humid too. We've had quite a bit of rain in recent days. It appears residue heat indoors has risen again though, especially due to the mild nights, which have been exceptionally mild for the time of year. I have had some nighttime lows of 16-17C / 63F recently. I think the lowest temperature so far in central London is about 5C / 42F. The days have been reaching the 18-21C / 65-70F mark lately too. Just very mild for the time of year.

The cannas are flowering still and Abyssinian bananas are still pumping out growth. At this rate I won't have to lift the Abyssinian until December now. If it is an exceptionally mild winter, I may get away with leaving it in place as they do in parts of London. I'm 35 miles inland from the coast and won't have any UHI here though. It would need to be a very mild winter. There is no cold really in Europe at all yet though, so winter can't really get going. As temperatures start plummeting across North America next week, as the transition into winter begins, Europe will remain in an early autumn/fall like state. For just how long remains to be seen. La Nina winters used to mean a cold start with below average temps in December, but it appears climate change has thwarted that.

 

[UK_Palms]

So mild the past few nights considering it is the last week of October, with several nights not dropping below 16C / 61F here. Some places not even dropping below 17C / 63F. Not a lot of solar heating going on either though at this time of year with the max on Wednesday just 20.5C / 69F in London. Not much difference between day and night. Just super mild. Everything is still growing fine unhindered, except for the tomatoes, which are on their last legs now. The pepper plants look fine still.

It has become pretty windy here as well as the jet stream tears through the UK. Quite a bit of rain too in recent days. A definite autumnal feel, despite the mild temps.

Although it has been pretty mild, it does appear that temps will drop away next week to more average like conditions. Nighttime lows will still be in the double figures C though (50F+) next week.

Edited October 27, 2022 by UK_Palms