2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[PalmatierMeg]

Looking dicier for Cape Coral (It’s Just Paradise), FL. The cats and I will ride this one out too. During Irma we binge watched “Lost”. Well, I binge-watched “Lost” and the cats slept on the bed near me.

[kinzyjr]

Here, things went from "close as a precaution" to "nail everything down" pretty fast.

[D. Morrowii]

Yeah that escalated quickly. It went from me feeling bad for the folks in Tampa to whoa! I need to take heed myself! Looks like even over on this side we will need to do some prep. Good luck to those of you on the West side. 

[Merlyn]

1 hour ago, D. Morrowii said:

Yeah that escalated quickly. It went from me feeling bad for the folks in Tampa to whoa! I need to take heed myself! Looks like even over on this side we will need to do some prep. Good luck to those of you on the West side. 

Yup, and the forecasts keep shifting towards a Cape Coral/Ft. Myers to Port Charlotte landfall.  Today's track has been much further Northeast than the direct North track they were expecting.  The UKMET tracks (lighter blue) track just North of Okeechobee and towards Cocoa and Melbourne.  I suspect these are closer to correct than the official black track, just based on where the eye has moved since last night.

[Jimbean]

5 minutes ago, Merlyn said:

Yup, and the forecasts keep shifting towards a Cape Coral/Ft. Myers to Port Charlotte landfall.  Today's track has been much further Northeast than the direct North track they were expecting.  The UKMET tracks (lighter blue) track just North of Okeechobee and towards Cocoa and Melbourne.  I suspect these are closer to correct than the official black track, just based on where the eye has moved since last night.

That's similar to what I think.  This is reminding me of hurricane Charley. 

[Jimbean]

Also I want to add that after looking at the frontal boundary and the wobbles in the track of the storm, it seems pretty obvious that landfall will occur south of Sarasota, probably Lee or Charlotte county

[D. Morrowii]

The wind part of this hurricane is one thing but look at these possible rainfall totals! It seems like these forecasts lag behind the regular track updates by a few hours. As the cone continues to shift SE I expect this forecast to follow it. Thats a big chunk if Central Florida possibly getting 15-20”. 

[Looking Glass]

On this side, it’s just been bands of heavy rain for 2 days now, with some wind tipping over a couple of pots and cleaning out old fronds in the bigger in-ground stuff.  Good luck on the west side.   Looks like it’s gonna slam into the areas south of Tampa. 

You’ve still got a little time for last minute prep, or to get out of Dodge.   Man this big guy is just crawling forward at 5mph.    The amount of water heading in with it is going to be crazy.  
 

[aabell]

Left Fort Myers earlier today and watching nervously from a hotel in Fort Lauderdale. @PalmatierMeg and everyone else in SWFL please stay safe!

[PalmatierMeg]

16 minutes ago, aabell said:

Left Fort Myers earlier today and watching nervously from a hotel in Fort Lauderdale. @PalmatierMeg and everyone else in SWFL please stay safe!

Thank you. We’ve been through a number of storms and we’re staying. Ian may be Charley’s behemoth younger brother. We’ll deal with him too.

[kinzyjr]

2 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

The wind part of this hurricane is one thing but look at these possible rainfall totals! It seems like these forecasts lag behind the regular track updates by a few hours. As the cone continues to shift SE I expect this forecast to follow it. Thats a big chunk if Central Florida possibly getting 15-20”.

Wouldn't be surprised if we set a monthly rainfall record.

[Barry]

Waiting on the 11 pm update, but my feelings are it is coming to Ft Myers or Port Charlotte. We are staying put in Ft Myers, test fired generator and chain saw this afternoon. But it is going to be worse than Irma, in my opinion. Ian is coming off the gulf, Irma hit us, starting in Marco, moving north. It is going to be a long couple of days. Garage is loaded down with plants. Hoping for the best, but expecting a mess again.

 

 

[CB Lisa]

From the other side of the state, hopes and prayers that all of you down there ride this thing through safely and without any catastrophic damage to homes, plants, or anything else. Stay safe! 

[Collectorpalms]

Its going to be horrible without power (AC) I am a wimp to humidity, I can deal with the eye of Katrina 140 mph winds on interstate stuck in my truck, but I got to drive home. Even Hurricane Ike didnt lose power while most of Houston did.

Id be in Texas enjoying those 50 dewpoints! Hope the Gulf coast send enough dry air there to suck it dry. ( per models)

[Collectorpalms]

6 hours ago, PalmatierMeg said:

Thank you. We’ve been through a number of storms and we’re staying. Ian may be Charley’s behemoth younger brother. We’ll deal with him too.

How many feet above sea level are the Cape Coral Canal homes?

[JLM]

Well yall, Ian has rapidly intensified overnight, and it is now nearing Category 5 status this morning. Im not sure the situation can get any worse for Southwest Florida. Today will be a very bad day, winds sustained near 155 mph with gusts to 190 mph (per the NHC forecast) will lash the coast where it makes landfall, and a devastating storm surge could uproot thousands of lives. The storm surge could be catastrophic, and nothing less than that. Heres a look for the Cape Coral/Fort Myers area, which look to possibly be the spot for the biggest surge impacts. @PalmatierMegi want you to look at this tweet specifically, i dont know where you are in this area but it might be a good idea to leave if you havent.

Please keep southwest Florida in your prayers today as Ian makes landfall.
 

 

[JLM]

Heres the latest storm surge forecast. Storm surge over 6 feet really is just unsurvivable, and storm surge values of 12-16 feet is expected.

[JLM]

Heres the Key Messages from the NHC this morning. Catastrophic storm surge, Catastrophic wind damage, Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash flooding.

[Looking Glass]

This storm is no Irma.  This is a Cat 4+ hurricane now.  Get out of the way or to high ground concrete structures if you still can.  Sarasota is forecast to get 17 inches of rain today.  If you have to go into the attic, you have to bring a tool like an ax and crowbar to bust through the roof if the water gets too high.  Anyone holding tight in the path, should keep their shoes on and laced tight, and have a bug-out bag packed with essential gear and documents.  Good luck everybody.  

[Barry]

Good morning from Ft Myers, 

It was a little shocking to wake up to 155 mph storm! I guess not totally unexpected. We are just west of 41, south of Lee Hospital. We are just starting to get higher wind gusts. Some tree branches already down. We will be hunkered down in our home, built in 1955, very strong home, we have accordion shutters for all windows, new metal roof last year. It is too late for anyone to leave if they wanted to. It would be a last ditch effort if we had some thing to make us leave. So for now we will be here. I decided to reposition my trucks this morning. This is what it looks like now, will be way different after the storm. Our biggest concern is the 5 large oaks trees in the yard, 48” plus diameter. Wind are starting howl. Will post later.

 

Good Luck to everyone and be safe!

 

Barry

[PalmatierMeg]

6 hours ago, Collectorpalms said:

How many feet above sea level are the Cape Coral Canal homes?

Officially 10’ elevation. But when our house was originally built over septic it was placed on a mound. So, unofficially, it is 15’ elevation.

Woke up facing a borderline cat 5 this morning - 155 mph. Very bad. Eye is 16 miles off Sanibel. Port Charlotte may be ground zero. Charley deja vu again.

[PalmatierMeg]

1 hour ago, JLM said:

Well yall, Ian has rapidly intensified overnight, and it is now nearing Category 5 status this morning. Im not sure the situation can get any worse for Southwest Florida. Today will be a very bad day, winds sustained near 155 mph with gusts to 190 mph (per the NHC forecast) will lash the coast where it makes landfall, and a devastating storm surge could uproot thousands of lives. The storm surge could be catastrophic, and nothing less than that. Heres a look for the Cape Coral/Fort Myers area, which look to possibly be the spot for the biggest surge impacts. @PalmatierMegi want you to look at this tweet specifically, i dont know where you are in this area but it might be a good idea to leave if you havent.

Please keep southwest Florida in your prayers today as Ian makes landfall.
 

 

Thanks for your concern. Surge is now 12-18’. Looks like all of Cape Coral is a flood zone. Our son & daughter-in-law came over last night to ride out the storm. Still, if the water reaches our front door, the whole city is underwater. Too late to run, too dangerous to cross the bridges. Shelter in place and don’t attempt to remove your lanai screens (really!)

[redant]

Wishing you all the best,  this is going to be a brutal one.

[Borderline Tropical]

Winds are picking up in Orlando right now. Projected eye looks extremely close to where I live in south Orlando. Hope the best for everyone during this storm. 

[NOT A TA]

Been windy here with periods of heavy rain. We've already gotten more rain than than they predicted we'd get total.

@PalmatierMegYou're in a bad spot, wish you and your family the best riding it out.

[Matthew92]

🙏🙏🙏

[Moose]

I've got quite the pile of downed palm fronds stacking up. And I'm miles away only experiencing 40 mph gusts

[Barry]

Got a full blown mess on my hands! Just sitting inside my impact rated French doors watching the destruction happen

[Jimbean]

On 9/27/2022 at 9:07 AM, Jimbean said:

I want to say on record that I thought about this yesterday and made the quoted post before the the track was updated to show it hitting south of Tampa (now Sarasota county),  I'll bet it makes landfall in Lee county and moves up toward Kissimmee, and exits back into the Atlantic at around New Smyrna Beach.  I made this prediction in my head yesterday around noon and let's see how my prediction holds up. 

I was closer than most models

[Moose]

I had quite the pile of downed palm fronds. Chopped them up with reciprocating saw, stuffed 10 garbage containers carted off this morning.  Miles away only experiencing 40 mph gusts

[Jimbean]

This was earlier in the day.  Just tropical storm force gusts and some rain.  Was expecting more from the storm. 

 

 

[JLM]

Fort Myers Beach is devastated....

[Foxpalms]

Parts of the UK had strong winds and lots of rain today from the tail end of the hurricane Ian.  Wind over 75mph in some parts of Scotland and 55mph winds on the Isle of Wight brought over by the jet stream from Florida  caused some damage. The wind wasn't as bad here in London only damaged caused was to banana leaves.  Hopefully everyone in Florida is safe.

[JLM]

We have a couple disturbances to watch, because hurricane season is not over despite Ian being the biggest storm of the season.

The first disturbance is a tropical wave off the coast of Africa, which has a high development chance in 5 days (70%). This wave is expected to move northwest and should not be a problem for really anybody. Will continue to watch though, as storms like Florence 2018 initially looked to go out to sea but ended up pushing west anyway.

The next disturbance is a wave embedded in the ITCZ, which has just been marked by the NHC. While models are not showing much support, the environment in the Central and Western Caribbean could be conducive for development at and beyond 5 days. Yes, this looks eerily similar to Ian, but this will not do what Ian did. The ridge to the north should keep anything south for a while before a chance for a north turn opens up. This could very well mean that it gets buried into Central America and we never have to worry about it in the US. However, if the storm hangs around long enough, or even crosses into the southern Gulf (Bay of Campeche), then it would possibly be in range to be picked up by a trough and dragged north. This one bears watching, but for now it is no immediate threat to anyone besides the Islands where heavy rain and gusty winds are possible. Development chances in 5 days are set at 20% for now.

Satellite Image credit to Tropical Tidbits:

[JLM]

TD 12 formed on Tuesday, it is now getting ready to dissipate. It never received a name, so still the next name is Julia.

Invest 91L in the Caribbean has a rather high development chance in the next 5 days at 90%. High pressure will steer 91L west into Central America, so no worries along the US Gulf Coast or East Coast regions. Regardless of whether 91L develops, heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible across the ABC Islands and portions of the mainland Venezuelan and Colombian Coast. Interests in these areas and in Central America should monitor the progress of this system.

Beyond that, no other real signals for development exist for the next 5-7 days. This does not mean that hurricane season is over, the season doesnt end until November 30th. 

[JLM]

The disturbance that was 91L in the previous update became Hurricane Julia, which made landfall on the coast of Nicaragua.  Julia is still alive, but it has crossed into the Pacific and will not be an issue for the Atlantic anymore.

Beyond that, im not seeing anymore signals through the next 10 days at least. This does not mean that hurricane season is over though, so dont get too comfortable. Consider this a break, even though its possible that activity never picks back up.

[JLM]

So heres a quick update at an absurd time of night (almost midnight CDT)

Tropical Storm Karl formed in the Gulf, and just kinda meandered quite a bit down there before approaching the coast of Mexico. I think it weakened to a depression before actually reaching land though. 

Besides Karl, the tropics have been very quiet until today.

A new AOI has been marked in the subtropics of all places, it has a 20% chance to develop in 5 days. It will not impact land in the short term, but Bermuda should watch. This disturbance will be moving westward across the northern Atlantic.

[JLM]

Invest 94L now has a high development chance, and could become the next named storm. It will likely be very short lived.

There is a second AOI south of Bermuda, its chances are beginning to rise. If this was to form, it would also be short lived.

Looking long term, models are hinting at more Caribbean activity in early November. Definitely something to watch given that the environment would probably be favorable to development and intensification of a tropical system in this area. Theres nothing pressing at the moment down there, just a signal to monitor over the next week.

[JLM]

The NHC is now monitoring 3 spots in the Atlantic. The first one is Invest 94L, the second is a disturbance south of Bermuda, and the third one which was just marked is in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Ill post the NHC graphic and the outlook text below. None of these are of immediate concern, but the Caribbean disturbance bears watching medium to long term.



 

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have decreased since yesterday in 
association with a well-defined area of low pressure located 
just west-northwest of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are 
becoming less conducive for development, and the chance of this 
system becoming a short-lived tropical depression appears to be 
decreasing. The low is expected to move northward towards cooler 
waters and into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds by 
tonight, which should limit further development. Regardless of 
development, periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are 
expected over Bermuda though this morning. Interests in Bermuda 
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form midway between Puerto 
Rico and Bermuda in a couple of days. Thereafter, environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual subtropical development of 
this system while it meanders over the southwestern Atlantic through 
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

3. Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea 
by early this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for gradual development as the low drifts westward or 
west-northwestward over the eastern Caribbean this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[JLM]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen has been designated in the Caribbean south of Jamaica. Fortunately for those with US interests, this will be heading west towards Central America.

If you are in Central America, specifically around Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and portions of eastern Mexico including the Yucatan Peninsula, impacts will be felt there to some extent.

The current NHC forecast track expects this to become Lisa later today. After that point it is expected to strengthen steadily up until landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 80 mph somewhere between the Yucatan Peninsula and Honduras. Forecast models seem to be in agreement that this will probably make landfall in Belize.

Currently, Tropical Storm Watches are in place for Jamaica and Grand Cayman.