Jump to content
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT LOGGING IN ×
  • WELCOME GUEST

    It looks as if you are viewing PalmTalk as an unregistered Guest.

    Please consider registering so as to take better advantage of our vast knowledge base and friendly community.  By registering you will gain access to many features - among them are our powerful Search feature, the ability to Private Message other Users, and be able to post and/or answer questions from all over the world. It is completely free, no “catches,” and you will have complete control over how you wish to use this site.

    PalmTalk is sponsored by the International Palm Society. - an organization dedicated to learning everything about and enjoying palm trees (and their companion plants) while conserving endangered palm species and habitat worldwide. Please take the time to know us all better and register.

    guest Renda04.jpg

West & SW FL Zone Map


RedRabbit

Recommended Posts

I made a quick zone map for West Central and Southwest Florida. This map is based on weather station data and my observations of what grows where. 

 

SWFL_Map2.png.df134748179aec6fda1a1fd87a354912.png

  1. Green: 9b+
  2. Orange: 10a-
  3. Brown: 10a+
  4. Red: 10b-
  5. Purple: 10B+
  6. Pink: 11a-

 

  • *Areas unshaded simply aren't rated.
  • **No guarantee of accuracy, don't plant anything based on this.
Edited by RedRabbit
  • Like 7
  • Upvote 4

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@RedRabbit W + SW FL are definitely your wheelhouse.  Nice work.

  • Like 1

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most accurate representation I've seen of the area around Fort Myers that I'm familiar with at least. Nice work. 

  • Like 3
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/19/2022 at 10:08 PM, kinzyjr said:

@RedRabbit W + SW FL are definitely your wheelhouse.  Nice work.

 

On 5/20/2022 at 10:26 AM, aabell said:

Most accurate representation I've seen of the area around Fort Myers that I'm familiar with at least. Nice work. 

Thank you both! I'm a bit less familiar with Lee and Collier Counties so I'm open to any feedback is something is off. 

I might take a shot at the east coast / Orlando next.

  • Like 1

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

 

Thank you both! I'm a bit less familiar with Lee and Collier Counties so I'm open to any feedback is something is off. 

I might take a shot at the east coast / Orlando next.

It looks pretty close to mine, minus the 11a areas.

image.png.4c94eba3398f72ae2b826032da347e08.png

  • Like 1

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

It looks pretty close to mine, minus the 11a areas.

image.png.4c94eba3398f72ae2b826032da347e08.png

Looks pretty good! Your base map is definitely better, mine is missing some stuff like Roberts Bay.

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks good to me!  Now that I live in Port Charlotte, I can say from observations that the map depicts our local zones pretty accurately.  I think we are a low 10a here, 3 miles from the water.

-Michael

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

After traveling around the area some recently, I made a few revisions:

tmpzonemapwc.png.96b90351533d41397965dad3caa03fbe.png

  • More of St. Pete went from 10A- to 10A+. Too many older coconuts even west of 275 to call it 10A-.
  • The area south of downtown Clearwater went from 10A- to 10A+ too. I don't spend much time there, but it's better than I thought.
  • More of Bradenton went from 10A+ to 10B-, along with some of Palmetto. West of 41 and North of 64 is just a very very strong microclimate with tons of old royals and a few coconuts that might be pre-80s. I've always known it's good, but I was still impressed by it after visiting again recently.
  • More of Englewood Beach went from 10A+ to 10B-. Some of it may actually be 10B+ thanks to Lemon Bay, particularly south of the bridge in Charlotte County.

    2 additional notes: 
  • If St. Pete Beach and Tierra Verde are 10B-, they're only barely so. Downtown Bradenton is better to be honest. I may move some of that area back to 10A+ later.
  • I'm having a hard time reconciling some of the 10A+ zone. Places like Hyde Park in Tampa and Casey Key are currently both 10A+, but one is low end and the other is high end and there's a big difference in what grows in each. I can live with this for now, but might need to make a change later.

 

I also made a quick rough draft of the east coast:

tmpzonemapec.png.173b13911f50a594957cd2633f078186.png

  • Like 2

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Filled in some Z11 for South Florida:

tmpz11.png.87c8c768f2106cc6f762c59acabbf1fd.png

For reference:

  • Purple: 10B+
  • Pink: 11A-
  • Dark Purple: 11A+

It might be a bit dubious putting Pahokee at 11A+, but I don't recall seeing evidence that it's ever frozen there. It may be on par with Miami Beach, or maybe not. A lot of South Florida is an educated guess so someone speak up if something is wrong here.

  • Like 2
  • Upvote 1

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@RedRabbit I had been skeptical myself that any parts of SW FL could statistically be zone 11a, but while I was working on an updated set of maps and charts, I came across a few stations I missed.  One of them was Captiva (USC00081310).  It has data from 1939-1967, so it includes a few of the nasty freezes.  In particular, Dec. 1962 which set a lot of record lows.  Here's how it looks statistically:

202206110105_CaptivaRecords.jpg

  • Like 2

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

@RedRabbit I had been skeptical myself that any parts of SW FL could statistically be zone 11a, but while I was working on an updated set of maps and charts, I came across a few stations I missed.  One of them was Captiva (USC00081310).  It has data from 1939-1967, so it includes a few of the nasty freezes.  In particular, Dec. 1962 which set a lot of record lows.  Here's how it looks statistically:

202206110105_CaptivaRecords.jpg

Great find, thanks for sharing @kinzyjr! My theory has been that Useppa, North Captiva, and maybe Captiva were 11a due to their separation from the mainland whereas Sanibel was 10b. What could be an all time low of 29 and a mean of 39.6f isn’t too bad for Captiva so I’m on the fence of what to classify this area as.

I’m not sure how the 1939-1967 period here compares to other parts of Florida so it’s hard for me to draw a definitive conclusion on the area. What are your thoughts? Are we better off calling that area 10b+ or 11a-?

Edited by RedRabbit

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Great find, thanks for sharing @kinzyjr! My theory has been that Useppa, North Captiva, and maybe Captiva were 11a due to their separation from the mainland whereas Sanibel was 10b. What could be an all time low of 29 and a mean of 39.6f isn’t too bad for Captiva so I’m on the fence of what to classify this area as.

I’m not sure how the 1939-1967 period here compares to other parts of Florida so it’s hard for me to draw a definitive conclusion on the area. What are your thoughts? Are we better off calling that area 10b+ or 11a-?

In my opinion, we now have enough data to form a valid hypothesis on the matter.

Using the data contained in the Florida Freeze and Weather Station Data thread, we can compare the records of some of the stations in the same TAG region to the records for the newly added Captiva station and form an our own opinions based on the available data:

202206110105_CaptivaCompare.jpg

You can see that Captiva records lows that are significantly milder than the stations on the mainland but near the coast as expected.  The mildest station on the mainland with records for this time frame is the Naples station.  Captiva has a +4F advantage per year over Naples.  Since Naples is a fairly sturdy 10b and rounding would put Captiva at 40F, a strict "zone map" puts Captiva at 11a.  If you're more concerned about creating a "planting guide" rather than a strict "zone map", you're probably safer with 10b since the lows there frequently drop below 40F.  Since the 1948 low for Captiva is probably based on incomplete data, I tend to lean 10b, but in all honesty, I'm good either way. :)

  • Like 1

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

In my opinion, we now have enough data to form a valid hypothesis on the matter.

Using the data contained in the Florida Freeze and Weather Station Data thread, we can compare the records of some of the stations in the same TAG region to the records for the newly added Captiva station and form an our own opinions based on the available data:

202206110105_CaptivaCompare.jpg

You can see that Captiva records lows that are significantly milder than the stations on the mainland but near the coast as expected.  The mildest station on the mainland with records for this time frame is the Naples station.  Captiva has a +4F advantage per year over Naples.  Since Naples is a fairly sturdy 10b and rounding would put Captiva at 40F, a strict "zone map" puts Captiva at 11a.  If you're more concerned about creating a "planting guide" rather than a strict "zone map", you're probably safer with 10b since the lows there frequently drop below 40F.  Since the 1948 low for Captiva is probably based on incomplete data, I tend to lean 10b, but in all honesty, I'm good either way. :)

I checked Miami Beach for the 1962 and 1957 freezes and it had lows of 36 and 35 versus 29 and 34 for Captiva.  I have Miami Beach at 11a+ so I don't mind Captiva coming in slightly lower, but 7f colder in 1962 isn't good for it's 11a- case. Key Largo might have actually been a better comparison if we had data for it. Those are just 2 freeze events though and its hard to read too much into it. 

I think we can conclude Captiva is boarderline 10b/11a, and a compelling case could be made for either side. I'll dial that area back to 10b+ for now and we can keep an eye on it on colds nights for the next few winters to see if more evidence emerges that those 4 islands (Cayo Costa, North Captiva, Captiva (northern side), and Useppa) really do have a z11 microclimate. 

Edited by RedRabbit
  • Like 1

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/8/2022 at 7:41 AM, RedRabbit said:

After traveling around the area some recently, I made a few revisions:

tmpzonemapwc.png.96b90351533d41397965dad3caa03fbe.png

  • More of St. Pete went from 10A- to 10A+. Too many older coconuts even west of 275 to call it 10A-.
  • The area south of downtown Clearwater went from 10A- to 10A+ too. I don't spend much time there, but it's better than I thought.
  • More of Bradenton went from 10A+ to 10B-, along with some of Palmetto. West of 41 and North of 64 is just a very very strong microclimate with tons of old royals and a few coconuts that might be pre-80s. I've always known it's good, but I was still impressed by it after visiting again recently.
  • More of Englewood Beach went from 10A+ to 10B-. Some of it may actually be 10B+ thanks to Lemon Bay, particularly south of the bridge in Charlotte County.

    2 additional notes: 
  • If St. Pete Beach and Tierra Verde are 10B-, they're only barely so. Downtown Bradenton is better to be honest. I may move some of that area back to 10A+ later.
  • I'm having a hard time reconciling some of the 10A+ zone. Places like Hyde Park in Tampa and Casey Key are currently both 10A+, but one is low end and the other is high end and there's a big difference in what grows in each. I can live with this for now, but might need to make a change later.

 

I also made a quick rough draft of the east coast:

tmpzonemapec.png.173b13911f50a594957cd2633f078186.png

 

Perhaps you can use this as a reference.  There's some work done already.

 

  • Like 2

Brevard County, Fl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Jimbean said:

 

Perhaps you can use this as a reference.  There's some work done already.

 

Thanks, that will be very helpful! Does my rough draft look at least somewhat correct to you?

I haven’t been to the east coast in awhile, but I seem to recall 10a- probably went to around International Speedway Blvd in beachside Daytona and doesn’t change much until Cocoa Beach which is a clear step above. Then I recall Patrick AFB actually had some 10b averages and some stuff growing in Indiatlantic seemed to back that up. I don’t know that it changes too much going south from there until around Stuart. Then somewhere around Ft Lauderdale it probably moves to z11. (It’s hard to tell 10b and 11a apart for me so that line is tough to draw.)

 

 

Edited by RedRabbit

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Thanks, that will be very helpful! Does my rough draft look at least somewhat correct to you?

I haven’t been to the east coast in awhile, but I seem to recall 10a- probably went to around International Speedway Blvd in beachside Daytona and doesn’t change much until Cocoa Beach which is a clear step above. Then I recall Patrick AFB actually had some 10b averages and some stuff growing in Indiatlantic seemed to back that up. I don’t know that it changes too much going south from there until around Stuart. Then somewhere around Ft Lauderdale it probably moves to z11. (It’s hard to tell 10b and 11a apart for me so that line is tough to draw.)

 

 

I don't know about whether or not it is correct with regards to how you would compare to the west coast. 

Patrick AFB over the last 30 years has an average minimum of 39F;  Melbourne 33F

I drew some rough maps for Brevard.  This one is for pre-2010 coconuts, but I've found some north of that red line in mainland Brevard so it needs to be updated. 

 

 

pre-2010 coconut range.png

  • Like 1

Brevard County, Fl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Jimbean said:

pre-2010 coconut range

updated pre 2010 coconut range.png

Thanks for the help @Jimbean

There are really pre-2010 coconuts west of I-95 in Melbourne? That would coincide with 10a+ (Brown) or better on my map.

I think there are only 3 total in Volusia County and 2 are in very protected locations. For them to be west of I-95 in Brevard is impressive.

Edited by RedRabbit

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Thanks for the help @Jimbean

There are really pre-2010 coconuts west of I-95 in Melbourne? That would coincide with 10a+ (Brown) or better on my map.

I think there are only 3 total in Volusia County and 2 are in very protected locations. For them to be west of I-95 in Brevard is impressive.

Yes, not very many though.  Here's a photo of one from one of my old customers in Palm Bay.  There are several post 89 royals, large ficus, large delonix regia, large mangos, etc.  in the area also.  That section that is just west of I-95 I think averages an annual minimum of somewhere around 32F.  Areas further west or south averages lower (believe it or not) which I think there is a little bit of a heat island effect going on there.

20211021_132023.jpg

  • Like 1

Brevard County, Fl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also, if you need any information of the distribution of native plants in the area let me know, I've done a lot of work finding them.  The distribution of tropical hardwoods might be a good indicator of zones. 

Brevard County, Fl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 months later...
12 minutes ago, SeanK said:

I noticed an arborescent Seagrape near the docks at Tarpon Springs. Is that z10a?

How big was it?  For zone 10a look for seagrapes that are over 20 feet tall

  • Like 1

Brevard County, Fl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, SeanK said:

I noticed an arborescent Seagrape near the docks at Tarpon Springs. Is that z10a?

I’m in that area fairly often and based on what I’ve seen, the area west of downtown just south of the Anclote River is consistent with z10a. East of downtown may also be, it’s harder to tell. 

Edited by RedRabbit
  • Like 1

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@SeanK

Seagrapes (Coccoloba uvifera) can get arborescent and quite large outside of USDA 10a.  These would be a lot larger if I didn't top them when we expect tropical storms or hurricanes.

20220925_121514_Seagrape_resized.thumb.jpg.da1014e8e00cf37d90c52dddf339ab3d.jpg

 

  • Like 1

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Jimbean said:

How big was it?  For zone 10a look for seagrapes that are over 20 feet tall

I'll be down again in December for the Christmas parade. I'll look again. It's been 3 years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

@SeanK

Seagrapes (Coccoloba uvifera) can get arborescent and quite large outside of USDA 10a.  These would be a lot larger if I didn't top them when we expect tropical storms or hurricanes.

20220925_121514_Seagrape_resized.thumb.jpg.da1014e8e00cf37d90c52dddf339ab3d.jpg

 

I've seen these in Collier and Dade as single-trunk park trees. Like our Dogwoods.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/8/2022 at 7:41 AM, RedRabbit said:

After traveling around the area some recently, I made a few revisions:

tmpzonemapwc.png.96b90351533d41397965dad3caa03fbe.png

  • More of St. Pete went from 10A- to 10A+. Too many older coconuts even west of 275 to call it 10A-.
  • The area south of downtown Clearwater went from 10A- to 10A+ too. I don't spend much time there, but it's better than I thought.
  • More of Bradenton went from 10A+ to 10B-, along with some of Palmetto. West of 41 and North of 64 is just a very very strong microclimate with tons of old royals and a few coconuts that might be pre-80s. I've always known it's good, but I was still impressed by it after visiting again recently.
  • More of Englewood Beach went from 10A+ to 10B-. Some of it may actually be 10B+ thanks to Lemon Bay, particularly south of the bridge in Charlotte County.

    2 additional notes: 
  • If St. Pete Beach and Tierra Verde are 10B-, they're only barely so. Downtown Bradenton is better to be honest. I may move some of that area back to 10A+ later.
  • I'm having a hard time reconciling some of the 10A+ zone. Places like Hyde Park in Tampa and Casey Key are currently both 10A+, but one is low end and the other is high end and there's a big difference in what grows in each. I can live with this for now, but might need to make a change later.

 

I also made a quick rough draft of the east coast:

tmpzonemapec.png.173b13911f50a594957cd2633f078186.png

Nice map, but I do remember that pinellas had less damage ont he west side than the east(on tampa bay) in 2010 cold event.  D. Lutecens was the "canary int he coal mine" I used since they were very common.  They were burned on northeast part part of pinellas towards tampa, but Largo where I worked, had no notable burn on the same palms.  Also foxtails, royals, adonidias ahd less damage in largo than east of largo on the 60.   Clearwater beach was clearly the warmest at that lattitude, warmer than the eastern shore of pinellas on tampa bay.  We havent seen a cold like that since then so its likely only visible in the more severe cold events that can cause damage.  The differences are much smaller in an advective event like 2018.  Radiational cold which are the coldest(2010) will show the value of water and wind direction.  Cocos out in the open sky were not common on the east/northeast part of pinellas in 2010, so I couldn't compare to the clearwater beach coco which did OK.  The temps recorded showed SW pinellas as the warmest in the area out side of anna maria island which was a couple degrees warmer than even cape coral.  But yeah, this is easily the best map I've seen based on cold damage assessment over the last 12 years or so.

  • Like 2

Formerly in Gilbert AZ, zone 9a/9b. Now in Palmetto, Florida Zone 9b/10a??

 

Tom Blank

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/10/2022 at 1:03 PM, sonoranfans said:

Nice map, but I do remember that pinellas had less damage ont he west side than the east(on tampa bay) in 2010 cold event.  D. Lutecens was the "canary int he coal mine" I used since they were very common.  They were burned on northeast part part of pinellas towards tampa, but Largo where I worked, had no notable burn on the same palms.  Also foxtails, royals, adonidias ahd less damage in largo than east of largo on the 60.   Clearwater beach was clearly the warmest at that lattitude, warmer than the eastern shore of pinellas on tampa bay.  We havent seen a cold like that since then so its likely only visible in the more severe cold events that can cause damage.  The differences are much smaller in an advective event like 2018.  Radiational cold which are the coldest(2010) will show the value of water and wind direction.  Cocos out in the open sky were not common on the east/northeast part of pinellas in 2010, so I couldn't compare to the clearwater beach coco which did OK.  The temps recorded showed SW pinellas as the warmest in the area out side of anna maria island which was a couple degrees warmer than even cape coral.  But yeah, this is easily the best map I've seen based on cold damage assessment over the last 12 years or so.

Thank you! You make some very good points. I have Safety Harbor and Clearwater Beach as the same color, but one is low end and the other is more middle range. It’s not perfect… Calling Venice Island and Davis Island (Tampa) the same is pretty dubious too but I don’t think making further subzones is helpful to make it more precise. 

For what it’s worth though, only the very edge of Safety Harbor on the water is convincingly z10. Cold air seems to pour in through Oldsmar between Tampa Bay and Lake Tarpon so the Countryside area of Clearwater, Palm Harbor, etc don’t have protection and aren’t convincingly better than 9b. I’m less familiar with Largo and Seminole, but I’ve been somewhat impressed by the area just south of downtown Clearwater.

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 months later...

The 9b+ cuttoff for north Pasco is spot on. It drops off FAST north and inland from there.  But i think Largo was noticably warmer when i lived there, certainly day to day if not in absolute lows.  From 2011 to 2020 the lowest outside of the 2018 freeze was 34 once or twice and no frost.  Im sure its way more common up here to go lower unless the last two winters have been unusually cold, which i dont think is the case outside of Christmas.  We had three hours below freezing last january while largo sailed through with the urban heat island. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, flplantguy said:

The 9b+ cuttoff for north Pasco is spot on. It drops off FAST north and inland from there.  But i think Largo was noticably warmer when i lived there, certainly day to day if not in absolute lows.  From 2011 to 2020 the lowest outside of the 2018 freeze was 34 once or twice and no frost.  Im sure its way more common up here to go lower unless the last two winters have been unusually cold, which i dont think is the case outside of Christmas.  We had three hours below freezing last january while largo sailed through with the urban heat island. 

Thanks for the feedback, I don’t get over to Largo/Seminole often so there’s room for improvement. I’ve been impressed by Clearwater south of downtown, it’s convincingly 10a and I adjusted the map knew the area better.

  • Like 1

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

Thanks for the feedback, I don’t get over to Largo/Seminole often so there’s room for improvement. I’ve been impressed by Clearwater south of downtown, it’s convincingly 10a and I adjusted the map knew the area better.

I reread what you posted after and it clicked (late nights lol).  I only ever saw frost there in open fields north of clearwater (what few there are) and only rarely, south of that is too dense with city now i think even off the water. After Anclote and Lake Tarpon its like a switch is flipped and the warm spots are the exceptions and cold spots more the rule.  I could feel it on cold mornings doing landscaping, as soon as we got to north pinellas mornings felt cooler no matter the time of year.  I miss that but not the hot concrete!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...

One theory of mine is that, on cold nights, cold air radiates from the center of the state out to the coast. When this happens the wind is from the NNW on the east coast and NNE on the west coast. 

Cocoa Beach has a much better climate for palms than Daytona despite being fairly close. It’s been said it has to do with the Gulf Stream being relatively closer to the coast, or simply that it’s further south which helps no doubt. However, I wonder if it may be more because it has much better separation from the mainland created by the Indian and the Banana Rivers. Cold air has much more water to cross to get there than it does in Daytona and New Smyrna.

Thoughts @Jimbean @kinzyjr?

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/12/2023 at 10:01 AM, RedRabbit said:

Thanks for the feedback, I don’t get over to Largo/Seminole often so there’s room for improvement. I’ve been impressed by Clearwater south of downtown, it’s convincingly 10a and I adjusted the map knew the area better.

I'd encourage you to drive through the Bardmoor neighborhood.  Quite a few large Z10 specimen including pre-2010/11 coconuts.  I believe this area is marked Z9B+ in your map but may deserve the Z10A- despite being smack dab in the middle of Pinellas County.  

Side note: while the microclimates are significantly more dramatic here in Colorado, I do miss hyper-analyzing the zones of Central and South Florida. 

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.867315,-82.758275,3a,75y,192.77h,86.87t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sKiq-CqGGgkR7I3BM3YKhYQ!2e0!5s20221001T000000!7i16384!8i8192!5m1!1e4

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, JJPalmer said:

I'd encourage you to drive through the Bardmoor neighborhood.  Quite a few large Z10 specimen including pre-2010/11 coconuts.  I believe this area is marked Z9B+ in your map but may deserve the Z10A- despite being smack dab in the middle of Pinellas County.  

Side note: while the microclimates are significantly more dramatic here in Colorado, I do miss hyper-analyzing the zones of Central and South Florida. 

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.867315,-82.758275,3a,75y,192.77h,86.87t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sKiq-CqGGgkR7I3BM3YKhYQ!2e0!5s20221001T000000!7i16384!8i8192!5m1!1e4

Wow, I had no idea about Bardmoor. Any idea why it’s warm there? It doesn’t seem to be close enough to any body of water, but clearly something is going on there.

Edited by RedRabbit
  • Upvote 1

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The coconut there always grabbed my attention when i saw it. We maintained the homes accross the street from it and the damage in most winters was minimal.  There was another right across starkey from the publix that survived 2010 but was removed later on (possibly 2018)  the area was hit or miss for adonidia survivors as well.  I think the golf course (added care) and soil type (very wet year round) may add warmth along with the section of pinellas being thinner than further south so less distance from the other water bodies.  The moisture in the soil types up here now have a similar subtle temperature bump i think.  That dry sand has a much lower thermal capacity than wet and radiates fast on radiailtional nights. The offshore cold flow you also mentioned also contributes here but they have the bay and airport/industry close to stop that too. I did a lot of studying on the subtleties of it all for my job so i really hope im right!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Wow, I had no idea about Bardmoor. Any idea why it’s warm there? It doesn’t seem to be close enough to any body of water, but clearly something is going on there.

I'm not entirely sure.  The neighborhood sits at ~16ft above sea level, so I wouldn't think there's a big shelter from radiational freezes as much as if it were ~50ft like some southern portions of the county.  

It may be socioeconomic - in the Tampa Bay area Z10 palms seem to sell for a premium over 'ordinary' palms.  This neighborhood is definitely more upscale than surrounding neighborhoods; it's expensive to purchase, water, maintain nutrition, and potentially protect numerous Z10 specimen compared with planting a queen and letting it do whatever.  If coconuts, royals, adonidia, foxtails were cheaper or even more common, you may see a higher success rate in Pinellas than what it appears.  Most of the really upscale neighborhoods in Pinellas are on or adjacent to the water, so it's quite hard infer much of a sample of 1.  The adjacent Bayou Club neighborhood is gated; would be interested to see what things look like in there.  Here's a listing of a recently sold house, the owner of which appeared to be quite a palm enthusiast: https://www.redfin.com/FL/Seminole/7884-Lantana-Creek-Rd-33777/home/48110676

I tested this theory with the neighborhoods surrounding Innisbrook and had mixed results: mostly just royals and mediocre looking foxtails up there, but not a lot of listings.  Not familiar with any other inner-Pinellas county gated communities to check out. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

One theory of mine is that, on cold nights, cold air radiates from the center of the state out to the coast. When this happens the wind is from the NNW on the east coast and NNE on the west coast. 

Cocoa Beach has a much better climate for palms than Daytona despite being fairly close. It’s been said it has to do with the Gulf Stream being relatively closer to the coast, or simply that it’s further south which helps no doubt. However, I wonder if it may be more because it has much better separation from the mainland created by the Indian and the Banana Rivers. Cold air has much more water to cross to get there than it does in Daytona and New Smyrna.

Thoughts @Jimbean @kinzyjr?

Interesting theory.  Here's my take on it:

In most cases, it seems that the cold air tends to concentrate west of a line in the state and form a frontal boundary that is parabolic in shape.  During the worst of the worst (1962, 1985, 1989, etc.), the cold tends to arrive in a more uniform manner.  As an example of my own sidebar on this theory focusing more on the peninsular part of the state:

  • Inside of the blue box, you have a lot of potential for inordinately cold temperatures to be reported during freezes.  There are areas that have decent microclimates that are the exceptions, but generally the coldest spots in peninsular Florida tend to manifest in those areas.  This also accounts for the old "9a bulge" into the area southeast of Highlands county on the old USDA maps.
  • The thick red line separates the areas where some water modification can take place from the Atlantic during an airflow from the NNE and off of the St. Johns vs the areas west of the line where it is often more of a straight shot over land.  In general, if you are east of that line, you'll generally record average low temperatures that are half a zone to a full zone higher than areas west of the line at the same latitude, with microclimates due to UHI, water, and topographical relief being equivalent as well.
  • The thin red line accounts for saltwater-modified climates.
  • The dark blue line approximates the shape of a typical cold front arriving in parabolic fashion with the arrow showing the general trajectory they take.  Jim mentioned the straight line distance not being that far from here to Melbourne, but it isn't often that the frontal boundary is straight across, so Orlando and Sanford tend to receive cold air later than Lakeland or Brandon.  Melbourne and Cocoa would get it even later.
  • Examples:
    • Wauchula and Arcadia often record lows that are below what is recorded in Sanford, Orlando, and Kissimmee
    • Brooksville and Spring Hill are nearly at the same latitude as downtown Orlando and closer to water, but are close to a full zone lower
    • Sanford is pretty close to the same latitude as Inverness, but there are decent-looking coconuts in Sanford and I'm not aware of any in Inverness.
    • Daytona Beach Shores vs. Cedar Key - same deal as the Sanford comparison above. 
  • A Few Outliers:
    • Most of Winter Haven and Eagle Lake are water-modified
    • A good portion of the towns on the Lake Wales Ridge have good microclimates where there is relief from surrounding terrain.
    • Places like Frostproof, Avon Park, Sebring, etc. down the US-27 corridor are a tale of two cities.  The good microclimates are fantastic, and the cold holes are really cold.  The first time I was in West Frostproof was March 2002 and it froze there while it was much milder near the lakes in town.

202303082025_Florida.jpg.2eab73da94c95d90706d573bc28de14b.jpg

  • Like 2
  • Upvote 1

Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, flplantguy said:

The coconut there always grabbed my attention when i saw it. We maintained the homes accross the street from it and the damage in most winters was minimal.  There was another right across starkey from the publix that survived 2010 but was removed later on (possibly 2018)  the area was hit or miss for adonidia survivors as well.  I think the golf course (added care) and soil type (very wet year round) may add warmth along with the section of pinellas being thinner than further south so less distance from the other water bodies.  The moisture in the soil types up here now have a similar subtle temperature bump i think.  That dry sand has a much lower thermal capacity than wet and radiates fast on radiailtional nights. The offshore cold flow you also mentioned also contributes here but they have the bay and airport/industry close to stop that too. I did a lot of studying on the subtleties of it all for my job so i really hope im right!

 

5 hours ago, JJPalmer said:

I'm not entirely sure.  The neighborhood sits at ~16ft above sea level, so I wouldn't think there's a big shelter from radiational freezes as much as if it were ~50ft like some southern portions of the county.  

It may be socioeconomic - in the Tampa Bay area Z10 palms seem to sell for a premium over 'ordinary' palms.  This neighborhood is definitely more upscale than surrounding neighborhoods; it's expensive to purchase, water, maintain nutrition, and potentially protect numerous Z10 specimen compared with planting a queen and letting it do whatever.  If coconuts, royals, adonidia, foxtails were cheaper or even more common, you may see a higher success rate in Pinellas than what it appears.  Most of the really upscale neighborhoods in Pinellas are on or adjacent to the water, so it's quite hard infer much of a sample of 1.  The adjacent Bayou Club neighborhood is gated; would be interested to see what things look like in there.  Here's a listing of a recently sold house, the owner of which appeared to be quite a palm enthusiast: https://www.redfin.com/FL/Seminole/7884-Lantana-Creek-Rd-33777/home/48110676

I tested this theory with the neighborhoods surrounding Innisbrook and had mixed results: mostly just royals and mediocre looking foxtails up there, but not a lot of listings.  Not familiar with any other inner-Pinellas county gated communities to check out. 

Thank you both. I’m not sure what to make of Bardmoor, but I’m eager to figure out what’s going on there. It logically shouldn’t be warm and there are cold spots as far south as Gulfport. If anything the adjacent golf course should make it colder from a relative lack of urban heating… I’ll have to study this area more to see if it’s really warmer or something else is going on like better nutrition, which would make sense too to some extent. 

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Interesting theory.  Here's my take on it:

In most cases, it seems that the cold air tends to concentrate west of a line in the state and form a frontal boundary that is parabolic in shape.  During the worst of the worst (1962, 1985, 1989, etc.), the cold tends to arrive in a more uniform manner.  As an example of my own sidebar on this theory focusing more on the peninsular part of the state:

  • Inside of the blue box, you have a lot of potential for inordinately cold temperatures to be reported during freezes.  There are areas that have decent microclimates that are the exceptions, but generally the coldest spots in peninsular Florida tend to manifest in those areas.  This also accounts for the old "9a bulge" into the area southeast of Highlands county on the old USDA maps.
  • The thick red line separates the areas where some water modification can take place from the Atlantic during an airflow from the NNE and off of the St. Johns vs the areas west of the line where it is often more of a straight shot over land.  In general, if you are east of that line, you'll generally record average low temperatures that are half a zone to a full zone higher than areas west of the line at the same latitude, with microclimates due to UHI, water, and topographical relief being equivalent as well.
  • The thin red line accounts for saltwater-modified climates.
  • The dark blue line approximates the shape of a typical cold front arriving in parabolic fashion with the arrow showing the general trajectory they take.  Jim mentioned the straight line distance not being that far from here to Melbourne, but it isn't often that the frontal boundary is straight across, so Orlando and Sanford tend to receive cold air later than Lakeland or Brandon.  Melbourne and Cocoa would get it even later.
  • Examples:
    • Wauchula and Arcadia often record lows that are below what is recorded in Sanford, Orlando, and Kissimmee
    • Brooksville and Spring Hill are nearly at the same latitude as downtown Orlando and closer to water, but are close to a full zone lower
    • Sanford is pretty close to the same latitude as Inverness, but there are decent-looking coconuts in Sanford and I'm not aware of any in Inverness.
    • Daytona Beach Shores vs. Cedar Key - same deal as the Sanford comparison above. 
  • A Few Outliers:
    • Most of Winter Haven and Eagle Lake are water-modified
    • A good portion of the towns on the Lake Wales Ridge have good microclimates where there is relief from surrounding terrain.
    • Places like Frostproof, Avon Park, Sebring, etc. down the US-27 corridor are a tale of two cities.  The good microclimates are fantastic, and the cold holes are really cold.  The first time I was in West Frostproof was March 2002 and it froze there while it was much milder near the lakes in town.

202303082025_Florida.jpg.2eab73da94c95d90706d573bc28de14b.jpg

Wow, that’s a much more unified theory than mine but it makes sense!

I learned a lot from looking at windy.com on a freezing morning:

A4D5328B-8078-406C-90C0-B5CD57A4618E.thumb.png.1817161e6cac52b8830e2a8a442c517e.png
It’s easy to see how the cold air is flowing throughout the state. You can see places like Flamingo are actually vulnerable and Belle Glade/AMI/Captiva/etc have a ton of water between them and the coldest air. There’s a decent amount of water NW of Cape Canaveral to help, but barely any in Daytona… It’s just one part of the equation, but helpful I think.

  • Like 1

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



  • Recently Browsing

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...