Florida Winter 2021-2022

[kinzyjr]

Held steady at 53F here all night.  The wind was pretty brisk by the lake and felt more like lower 40s than lower 50s.

[Matthew92]

Got to 39F this morning. I got up too late too see but I think there might have been some patchy frost.

[Matthew92]

Good video to watch going into winter this time around- just posted from one of the meteorologists I follow. Some of the years he covers included notable FL freezes.

 

Edited November 7, 2021 by Matthew92

[JLM]

Hit 43F just after 6 am this morning.

[JLM]

 

[kinzyjr]

Florida's Ice Box (Crestview/Duke Field) lives up to its nickname:

[chinandega81]

I'm surprised it got as cold as it did this AM. This is with an early season cold front without any snowpack to even "help" transport the cold air in. It was cool all AM and only now in the late PM has it gotten to the lower and mid 70s in South Florida, despite sunshine all day long.

[JLM]

7 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Florida's Ice Box (Crestview/Duke Field) lives up to its nickname:

I have to wonder if its a mistake, seems like a stretch considering its 8 degrees warmer just about 10 miles north.

Edited November 8, 2021 by JLM

[JJPalmer]

Since I've sold my house, I no longer have my own PWS to monitor this winter.  I've spent some time driving around and found two Davis Vantage Pro 2 Plus stations with proper installation in St. Pete that I'll be tracking: one is closer to downtown and will better show the urban heat impact and one is closer to PIE in the middle of a large, open field.  Both are 'Gold Star' rated on WUnderground.  Biggest downside is they only report updates every 15 minutes.  Regardless, they are a quality benchmark for Pinellas. 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLSTPET294

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLSTPET295

John's Pass Weather Station will provide some good data for the beaches:

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLMADEI14

Edited November 8, 2021 by JJPalmer

[D. Morrowii]

On 11/7/2021 at 10:25 AM, kinzyjr said:

Held steady at 53F here all night.  The wind was pretty brisk by the lake and felt more like lower 40s than lower 50s.

We hit a low of 52 out East. The wind and cloud cover yesterday felt more like Central California than Florida yesterday.

[kinzyjr]

1 hour ago, D. Morrowii said:

We hit a low of 52 out East. The wind and cloud cover yesterday felt more like Central California than Florida yesterday.

Looks like a few more days like that in the near future.

 

[D. Morrowii]

17 minutes ago, kinzyjr said:

Looks like a few more days like that in the near future.

 

Yikes! 5 solid nights of chillyness. I hope the daytime temps stay as warm as forecasted at least. I left half of my seedlings and marginally sensitive palms out through this last snap to see if there are any noticeable growth/health differences between the ones left out snd the ones I brought in. 

[JLM]

By Saturday night, lows become quite cold
with mainly mid 30s expected north of I-10, and upper 30s to low
40s south. With this, a Frost Advisory will likely be needed on
Saturday night, so prepare in advance to protect your plants.

- NWS Mobile AFD (issued at about 4 pm CST)

[kinzyjr]

7 minutes ago, JLM said:

By Saturday night, lows become quite cold
with mainly mid 30s expected north of I-10, and upper 30s to low
40s south. With this, a Frost Advisory will likely be needed on
Saturday night, so prepare in advance to protect your plants.

- NWS Mobile AFD (issued at about 4 pm CST)

Ouch!  Looking like a chilly night here.  49F at the airport typically means 51F or 52F here in town.  We'll see if they nail the forecast or not.  Even so, the wind makes it feel a lot colder:

[JLM]

1 minute ago, kinzyjr said:

Ouch!  Looking like a chilly night here.  49F at the airport typically means 51F or 52F here in town.  We'll see if they nail the forecast or not.  Even so, the wind makes it feel a lot colder:

That north wind always bites doesnt it? Thats gotta be one of the things i hate most about winter lol

[JLM]

 

[Matthew92]

7 hours ago, JLM said:

Well we're having a seasonal to slightly colder than seasonal fall so far. I keep seeing the parade of fronts coming. I'll believe it when I see it if we're going to get a mild trend. Just in the last week the alleged consensus was that December would be cold and then mild 2nd half of winter.

I know the bottom line is to expect anything. I'm not hedging any bets on anything more than about a week out in terms of knowing more specifically what's going to happen. My only "hunch" I guess you could say is that it's been since January 2018 that my locations has hit our hardiness zone mark of upper teens- so this milder string of winters has got to give sometime soon.

[JLM]

3 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Well we're having a seasonal to slightly colder than seasonal fall so far. I keep seeing the parade of fronts coming. I'll believe it when I see it if we're going to get a mild trend. Just in the last week the alleged consensus was that December would be cold and then mild 2nd half of winter.

I know the bottom line is to expect anything. I'm not hedging any bets on anything more than about a week out in terms of knowing more specifically what's going to happen. My only "hunch" I guess you could say is that it's been since January 2018 that my locations has hit our hardiness zone mark of upper teens- so this milder string of winters has got to give sometime soon.

If not this winter, then probably within the next one or two, we've had La Nina conditions for a while, thats bound to give at some point as well.

[JLM]

Light Blue - Frost Advisory
Deep Blue - Freeze Warning

[Matthew92]

5:50am my area. Radiational freeze with not a breath of wind allowing microclimates to be in full effect.

Hovering at 33 deg right now- my weather station says it dipped to 32 deg for a very brief period though. Some frost on roof, but not really any that I could see that formed on plants. I don't think there will be too much damage.

Edited November 14, 2021 by Matthew92

[kinzyjr]

3 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

5:50am my area. Radiational freeze with not a breath of wind allowing microclimates to be in full effect.

Hovering at 33 deg right now- my weather station says it dipped to 32 deg for a very brief period though. Some frost on roof, but not really any that I could see that formed on plants. I don't think there will be too much damage.

It's interesting how much much of a difference just a bit of warm water between Ft. Walton Beach + Destin and the mainland makes during early season cold fronts.  Very similar to what happens down this way with St. Pete vs. our inland locations.

[Matthew92]

5 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

It's interesting how much much of a difference just a bit of warm water between Ft. Walton Beach + Destin and the mainland makes during early season cold fronts.  Very similar to what happens down this way with St. Pete vs. our inland locations.

Yeah- and when it's an advective freeze, the the microclimate out there is only 2-3 degrees warmer vs. 10+ with a radiational.

[Matthew92]

Latest ideas about Thanksgiving week. Btw, negative NAO usually trends to a colder southeast. Climate Variability: North Atlantic Oscillation | NOAA Climate.gov

 

 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2021 by Matthew92

[JLM]

Hit a low of 37F this morning, roofs covered in frost with patches of frost throughout the yard. This was at about 5:45 AM this morning, but by the time i woke up the temperature was already beginning to slowly rise. I put out my protection for the Foxtail lastnight, i didnt think about putting a temp sensor in there, which i really should have done. Anyways, thats a wrap on the first frost of the season. First freeze on Thanksgiving week? 

[JLM]

:/

 

[Matthew92]

Recently discovered this guy on YT who does almost daily weather analysis for Southeast US. Very good explanations that are understandable for those not too much into detailed meteorology. This latest one explains well what could be on the table for Thanksgiving week. 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2021 by Matthew92

[JLM]

14 minutes ago, Matthew92 said:

Recently discovered this guy on YT who does almost daily weather analysis for Southeast US. Very good explanations that are understandable for those not too much into detailed meteorology. This latest one explains well what could be on the table for Thanksgiving week. 

 

 

I follow him on Twitter, not only does he do this, but he is also growing a Pindo in Columbia SC and some other various plants.

[Estlander]

Recorded 46F last night just like the screenshot posted above shows for my area. Looks like we’re starting a bit early this year
 

[JLM]

2 hours ago, Estlander said:

Recorded 46F last night just like the screenshot posted above shows for my area. Looks like we’re starting a bit early this year
 

Yep, but maybe we can get all the cold done and over with in December, and then have a mild January and February. Already had frost here, last year's first frost from what i can remember was the morning of December 1st.

[Appalachian Palms]

Looks like nice weather in Florida in the days ahead but  cool over the Thanksgiving Holidays from the panhandle all the way down to St. Pete Bch.  I was hoping for warmer weather for a holiday break. 

[Matthew92]

Still far out, could change- but looking like below average at least. The coldest day with this next cold front will be around the 23rd. Very different pattern this year. I saw someone post a weather map from this time last year and the persistent arrangement of high and low pressures were totally different and caused very warm temps in the Southeast US. Nov 2020 at my location was mid to high 70's and 80's with hardly any highs in the 60's, and this Nov. so far we haven't broken 80deg and have had multiple days that didn't get above 70.

 

 

 

 

[kinzyjr]

@Matthew92 A couple of chilly nights on the way down here.

[JLM]

9 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Still far out, could change- but looking like below average at least. The coldest day with this next cold front will be around the 23rd. Very different pattern this year. I saw someone post a weather map from this time last year and the persistent arrangement of high and low pressures were totally different and caused very warm temps in the Southeast US. Nov 2020 at my location was mid to high 70's and 80's with hardly any highs in the 60's, and this Nov. so far we haven't broken 80deg and have had multiple days that didn't get above 70.

 

 

 

 

Max temp ive had so far this November is 78F. But like you said, plenty of days with 80F+ last November. I smell a first freeze on the horizon.

[RedRabbit]

21 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

@Matthew92 A couple of chilly nights on the way down here.

I’ve got 41f in the forecast for Wednesday morning. We might have to get a freeze watch thread going if the forecast drops further.

[JLM]

NWS Mobile's forecast has me getting down to 33F Monday night. I hate Mondays...

[JLM]

Looks like Pensacola actually broke 80F today, and tied a record to go along with it.

[kinzyjr]

4 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

I’ve got 41f in the forecast for Wednesday morning. We might have to get a freeze watch thread going if the forecast drops further.

Looks like the predictions here are similar - in the 42F-43 range for a low.  We might want to get one going anyways since freezes are likely north and west of us.

AccuWeather:

Weather Channel:

NWS:

Weather Underground:

[JLM]

Forecast models have really backed off on the cold potential. With that, NWS has also pulled back on their forecast. 
For comparison, here was Monday nights forecast yesterday: 33F
Monday nights forecast today: 37F

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

On 11/14/2021 at 9:05 AM, kinzyjr said:

It's interesting how much much of a difference just a bit of warm water between Ft. Walton Beach + Destin and the mainland makes during early season cold fronts.  Very similar to what happens down this way with St. Pete vs. our inland locations.

Same thing over here on the South Texas Coast on the south side of Corpus Christi Bay, as well in Flour Bluff and on Padre Island.

John

[kinzyjr]

3 hours ago, JLM said:

Forecast models have really backed off on the cold potential. With that, NWS has also pulled back on their forecast. 
For comparison, here was Monday nights forecast yesterday: 33F
Monday nights forecast today: 37F

Definitely much improved.  Calling for ~49F at the airport here.