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Florida Winter 2021-2022


JLM

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This is where latitude counts, even in the unlikely event of a 32F low temperature (Tropical Tidbits shows continuing warm/hot through 1/21/2022). 25° to 26° latitude versus 33° to 35° latitudes creates situations were a warm-up occurs quickly even in the event of cold temperatures.

What you look for is what is looking

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GFS weather model has an impressive, far southern reaching arctic air outbreak near the end of the run. Only caught my attention in that there is agreement with some other models and it has continued to be shown on subsequent runs since yesterday. Euro model also shows a pattern that could support as well. If anything, probably indicates some sort of below average cold event in our neck of the woods around this period at the least, whether extreme or not. Still way out in time, but a good reminder to keep an eye out and have your cold protection plans in place as we are in the heart of winter.

1145791427_allanhuffmanjan22.JPG.cc1b1d956348fc462bcb30af802f1943.JPG

 

image.png.63785c693c040af246f3ca172e114f2b.png

Edited by Matthew92
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1 hour ago, Matthew92 said:

GFS weather model has an impressive, far southern reaching arctic air outbreak near the end of the run. Only caught my attention in that there is agreement with some other models and it has continued to be shown on subsequent runs since yesterday. Euro model also shows a pattern that could support as well. If anything, probably indicates some sort of below average cold event in our neck of the woods around this period at the least, whether extreme or not. Still way out in time, but a good reminder to keep an eye out and have your cold protection plans in place as we are in the heart of winter.

1145791427_allanhuffmanjan22.JPG.cc1b1d956348fc462bcb30af802f1943.JPG

 

image.png.63785c693c040af246f3ca172e114f2b.png

Amazing news! I've been following those too. Latest run, 18z also shows the same thing. Let's keep fingers crossed for cold these dates

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My wife and I have been up in the Great White North for the past two months taking care of family matters so we missed out on the record warmth in Florida.

I'm not surprised that the models are indicating a possible cold outbreak down the road, but every day closer to March helps mitigate the severity of the cold even if it comes, and the GFS seems to be flip-flopping. No surprise there as it is over two weeks out.

Hopefully when we return we will not bring the cold air with us.

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Official NWS outlooks, including new 3-4 week issued yesterday which takes us into February show their hesitancy in forecasting a major arctic outbreak into the Deep South. Most of peninsular Florida stays at least some shade of orange for all the forecasts. Perhaps they are leaning in to the more moderate euro for this period which shows a less negative NAO. 
 

image.thumb.gif.b4652d27b5bcbd9b35a80f3bcf388b67.gif

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

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On another note, anyone else on Florida East coast notice that this winter we have seemed to have a lot warmth right at the coast. Morning difference today was nearly 20 degrees from coast to i95 in our area. Looked similar in Daytona area. Gulf Stream and wind direction effect? As you go south, it’s less noticeable of a disparity but it feels good having mornings as warm as the space coast. 

C1911EEA-AE40-4A9C-BBC3-D87F7F8C2957.png

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Interesting observation! Do you know what your water temperature is in the ocean adjacent to your location? I believe the Gulf Stream is at least 30 miles east generally in St. Augustine. Perhaps it has come in closer. Would be interesting to see where the Gulf Stream is located. Presently at the Palm Beach Inlet, the ocean temperature is 77°F.

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What you look for is what is looking

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At Ponce Inlet (near New Smyrna Beach) the Gulf Stream is currently 42 nautical miles out.  Given its trajectory, I'd say probably ~50 nautical miles out by the time it gets to St. Augustine.

image.png.7068f2ca473604c72da711c3a0373dea.png

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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2 hours ago, bubba said:

Interesting observation! Do you know what your water temperature is in the ocean adjacent to your location? I believe the Gulf Stream is at least 30 miles east generally in St. Augustine. Perhaps it has come in closer. Would be interesting to see where the Gulf Stream is located. Presently at the Palm Beach Inlet, the ocean temperature is 77°F.

It’s about 66-68 degrees at St. Augustine pier, in line with our morning temps.

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Beautiful spot and I believe you have isolated the reason for the large differential in low temperatures near the coast. Notwithstanding the fact that the technical boundary of the eastern wall of the Gulfstream is 50 nautical miles, it has expansive effect on the ocean temperatures nearby.

The closest reporting station in Kenzy’s system states that the eastern edge of the Gulfstream is 10 miles offshore at Lake Worth. The furthest eastern point in the state of Florida is actually located at Singer Island, Florida but it’s certainly approximates the Palm Beach inlet. The water temperature here is currently 77°F and the Gulfstream/Florida current likely is located somewhere between 5 and 10 miles offshore. This creates a major micro climate for this area of Florida (minor in comparison to California) which causes low temperatures near the Gulfstream and the coast to be substantially higher than those reported at the airport (as much as 6 degrees Fahrenheit on cold mornings). It is the reason some truly tropical vegetation thrives in private gardens in Palm Beach very close to the ocean (Red Sealing Wax Palms)!

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What you look for is what is looking

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Nothing substantial on Tropical Tidbits GFS through January 24, 2022. Some moderation but then back to hot…

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What you look for is what is looking

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4 hours ago, bubba said:

Nothing substantial on Tropical Tidbits GFS through January 24, 2022. Some moderation but then back to hot…

At the moment all I'm seeing on models/guidance is the FL Panhandle/North FL most likely experiencing the brunt of the cold blast in the state (thanks of course to us having relatively flat landmass north all the way to the arctic and not being surrounded by ocean on 3 sides like the peninsula...)

Some model runs have shown freezing all the way to Orlando, but not much farther south. Since this potential event is so far out in time though, I'll admit there's really no credence to picking out to what extent subfreezing temps will reach down into the peninsula at this point.

I think a lot has to do with the orientation of wind flow and other dynamics. There can be a significant arctic air mass that drops far south, but if that orientation isn't just so, the cold air will stay up in the Panhandle/N FL area without the necessary dynamics to be funneled down into the peninsula. I have looked at quite a bit of historic weather records: and for instance: both in January 1981 and December 1957, it got to around 17 degrees at my location in the Panhandle, and low 20's in Orlando (bad, hard freeze for there).

And yet in January 2014 and January 2015 it got to 17-18 degrees in my town and in Orlando it only barely got to 32 deg in Jan 2014 and only 39 degrees in Jan 2015. 

Some varying factors seemed to be in play with these events.

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14 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

Official NWS outlooks, including new 3-4 week issued yesterday which takes us into February show their hesitancy in forecasting a major arctic outbreak into the Deep South. Most of peninsular Florida stays at least some shade of orange for all the forecasts. Perhaps they are leaning in to the more moderate euro for this period which shows a less negative NAO. 
 

image.thumb.gif.b4652d27b5bcbd9b35a80f3bcf388b67.gif

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Please remember when looking at these that this is the probability for above normal temperatures. Most of Florida is in the 60-70% range, which is decent, however averages do not account for two or three days of significantly below average temperatures with the rest of the days in the period being at or above normal. You cant have an arctic blast come through and only last a few days, then after temps would moderate back into above normal territory to make everything rot faster.

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 4 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa, 1 S. bermudana, 1 L. nitida

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My peach trees and blueberry bushes are setting buds/blooms early…guess the chill hours have been met. I think last year they didn’t set until late Feb. Warmth does not cause them to wake from my experience. My only reasoning is the chilly October and November we had help accumulate chill hours early.

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7 minutes ago, JLM said:

Please remember when looking at these that this is the probability for above normal temperatures. Most of Florida is in the 60-70% range, which is decent, however averages do not account for two or three days of significantly below average temperatures with the rest of the days in the period being at or above normal. You cant have an arctic blast come through and only last a few days, then after temps would moderate back into above normal territory to make everything rot faster.

Agree w/ this ..These outlooks can change quite a bit between Friday updates as well..  especially when the overall pattern is sensitive to quick changes..  < this time of year especially > Trust the 3 and 4 week outlooks more in Summer than any other time of the year, and even then ( esp. when trying to nail down our Annual Summer Monsoon precip. forecasts here ) they can swing wildly between updates..  

Edited by Silas_Sancona
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Coldest temps of the year forecasted in my area for Thursday night 1/13/22. Nothing terrible for me at 45 deg F but it has been stepped down from 58 a week ago and is trending downward. Coldest recorded temp on my weather station for 21/22 winter so far is 50.2 deg F. Mother nature hasn't decided to torture my palms too much yet.

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22 hours ago, ChristianStAug said:

Official NWS outlooks, including new 3-4 week issued yesterday which takes us into February show their hesitancy in forecasting a major arctic outbreak into the Deep South. Most of peninsular Florida stays at least some shade of orange for all the forecasts. Perhaps they are leaning in to the more moderate euro for this period which shows a less negative NAO. 
 

image.thumb.gif.b4652d27b5bcbd9b35a80f3bcf388b67.gif

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

I'm not seeing this scenario play out in the latest model runs.

Looks like the Eastern U.S. is in for colder/cooler weather for 2nd half of January.

Hope I'm wrong. I regret missing the warm December in Florida

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6 hours ago, Hombre de Palmas said:

I'm not seeing this scenario play out in the latest model runs.

Looks like the Eastern U.S. is in for colder/cooler weather for 2nd half of January.

Hope I'm wrong. I regret missing the warm December in Florida

Probably not possible to be wrong anymore. If something changes to a warm pattern now, that would be a bad miracle. They can downgrade the cold ofc, and I hope that doesnt happen when I'm there in Florida 2nd half of Jan

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On 1/8/2022 at 9:53 AM, ChristianStAug said:

Official NWS outlooks, including new 3-4 week issued yesterday which takes us into February show their hesitancy in forecasting a major arctic outbreak into the Deep South. Most of peninsular Florida stays at least some shade of orange for all the forecasts. Perhaps they are leaning in to the more moderate euro for this period which shows a less negative NAO. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

This is the period to watch for.

814temp_new.thumb.gif.7d8df85b24823b51696a589c4c84b78e.gif

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This guy gives good breakdowns. He talks about the CPC outlooks right at the beginning. And in parts of the 2nd half of video and around 16:43 he talks about temps down here.

 

 

Edited by Matthew92
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TWC yesterday predicted highs around 17-20°C and lows around 7-10°C for central Florida on Jan 20-23 and now it shows highs above 20°C and lows above 10°C?????

Im just tired of believing in 10+ days forecasts. Same thing happened to GFS today when suddenly all the big cold disappeared.

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Alright- my head is starting to spin reading through all this meteorological stuff. Going to take a break for a little bit. Bottom line is Panhandle/North FL at the minimum have light freeze/frost events over the next week and significant freeze threats to Florida/Peninsular FL remain to be seen, but the pattern setting up could very well support it. Also keep in mind that although daily minimum temperature averages for our locations will be going up into February, the threat for hard freeze events is definitely not over (as some of FL's worst cold waves were in early Feb). Just keep an eye on your forecasts.

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Speaking of the early warm up of average lows vs cold events, the shorter term (vs miami and central FL) city of miami beach records indicate an all time record low of 32 in January, upper 30s in February, but then 32 again in March, indicating that farther back it definitely froze there if there was such frost in March. There's also anecdotes of icing from residents there. 

32 December, 32 January, 37 February, back to 32 for March. Definitely some frost and freeze in Miami Beach historically. This only goes back to the 20s and misses several famous Florida freezes. 

image.thumb.png.5991f6f50f2132411cf4ac6c4726f3b1.png

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Forecast is showing a much more seasonal pattern over the next 7 days. Highs in the upper 50's to low 60's, lows in the 30's most nights this week with the exception of Friday and Saturday nights.

Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 4 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa, 1 S. bermudana, 1 L. nitida

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It will at least be chilly in our neck of the woods. Specific freeze threats still remain to be seen. This pattern definitely supports it though, so keep watch.

 

 

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Near freezing temps expected i think Sunday night and Monday night here. We will see how this trends, up or down? 

Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 4 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa, 1 S. bermudana, 1 L. nitida

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1 hour ago, Jimbean said:

Weather underground has me at 42F Monday morning. 

Yep, if it holds I’ll have to make room for a few extra container palms in the garage…

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Guess we'll see who has the more accurate prediction on this one:

202201122130_WC_Weather.jpg

202201122130_NWS_Weather.jpg

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Lakeland, FL

USDA Zone 1990: 9a  2012: 9b  2023: 10a | Sunset Zone: 26 | Record Low: 20F/-6.67C (Jan. 1985, Dec.1962) | Record Low USDA Zone: 9a

30-Year Avg. Low: 30F | 30-year Min: 24F

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Ok, I know I've been blowing up this thread lately. So for now I'll leave it with this. Bottom line is to look out for increasing, significant COLD as we head toward late Jan.

After the incredible December warmth, my Meyer lemon tree is trying to flower right now :wacko: and Japanese/Saucer Magnolias are starting to have an early bloom (they usually bloom in March). From the light freeze we had last week, my citrus shed some green leaves from being shocked after the mild temps before. At least hopefully some of this "prelude" cold we are getting can lull them and other plants/trees back into dormancy. Otherwise, the plants and trees around here could be in for quite a rude awakening.

 

 

 

Edited by Matthew92
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Finally possible California weather! Too hot all winter and we deserve some cooler weather notwithstanding what Alan said…

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What you look for is what is looking

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Image

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 4 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa, 1 S. bermudana, 1 L. nitida

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The above image and these are a rather strong signal at below average temps late month. 
Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook
Latest 8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

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Palms - 4 S. romanzoffiana, 1 W. bifurcata, 4 W. robusta, 1 R. rivularis, 1 B. odorata, 1 B. nobilis, 4 S. palmetto, 1 A. merillii, 2 P. canariensis, 1 BxJ, 1 BxJxBxS, 1 BxS, 3 P. roebelenii, 1 H. lagenicaulis, 1 H. verschaffeltii, 9 T. fortunei, 1 C. humilis, 2 C. macrocarpa, 1 L. chinensis, 1 R. excelsa, 1 S. bermudana, 1 L. nitida

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6 minutes ago, JLM said:

The above image and these are a rather strong signal at below average temps late month. 
Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook
Latest 8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

And the pendulum swings…

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