Is an Ice Age Coming?

[Palm crazy]

I found this interesting video that's easy to follow for us Laymen weather nuts. Tells a whole different story and so many new things to take into account. Very interesting. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztninkgZ0ws

Edited November 23, 2018 by Palm crazy

[bubba]

The Ice Age Cometh...

[Matthew92]

I've seen literature on this too recently. Really interests me- I wonder how it will play out.

[bubba]

I believe we are speaking of eons and not something likely to affect our life experience. That stated, I understand that the wiggle into a mini-Ice Age rather quickly in relative terms. For example, I believe the Thames in London froze repeatedly in the last mini-Ice Age in the 1700’s. They are now growing Phoenix canarius and Papaya!

[Palm crazy]

17 hours ago, bubba said:

I believe we are speaking of eons and not something likely to affect our life experience. That stated, I understand that the wiggle into a mini-Ice Age rather quickly in relative terms. For example, I believe the Thames in London froze repeatedly in the last mini-Ice Age in the 1700’s. They are now growing Phoenix canarius and Papaya!

That's what I got out of the video also. Nothing really to worry about now, and mini ice ages do happen more frequently but not in our lifetime. But colder than normal winter do happen for short periods due to other natural disasters. The colder winters of the '80s were caused by several Big Volcano eruptions that cool the earth by blocking the suns rays high in the atmosphere so let us hope that doesn't happen again. 

Edited November 25, 2018 by Palm crazy

[kinzyjr]

We'll get what we get.  Adapt or die = nature.

[enigma99]

Earlier this month it was very dry and we had terrible smoke in California. It was so bad the sun couldn’t shine through it

Forecast was low 70s and low 40s for the week, ended up being 15-20 degrees cooler and got down to around freezing a few mornings. So something like a volcano could really lower global temps quick

[_Keith]

"Earth's climate and the biosphere have been in constant flux, dominated by ice ages and glaciers for the past several million years. We are currently enjoying a temporary reprieve from the deep freeze.

Approximately every 100,000 years Earth's climate warms up temporarily. These warm periods, called interglacial periods, appear to last approximately 15,000 to 20,000 years before regressing back to a cold ice age climate. At year 18,000 and counting our current interglacial vacation from the Ice Age is much nearer its end than its beginning."

Then we are going to get 80,000 - 90,000 years of Ice Age and those Scifi movies will be real.

 

[Funkthulhu]

As a geologist I can say we will not be getting an Ice Age any time soon.  Likely we have overwhelmed the natural cycle with anthropogenic carbon and there will not be one in the long term either.

[mdsonofthesouth]

You really think that the tilt variation and elongation of the rotation around the sun will be thwarted by carbon emissions alone?

Edited November 26, 2018 by mdsonofthesouth

[NC_Palms]

Possibly... I read some articles stating that increased warmth in the Arctic will strengthen the jet stream to move farther south. This would bring colder temperatures more often to the Southern states. 

[PalmatierMeg]

Will we get another ice age? Yeah, sure - eventually. The only thing consistent about climate is change. But it won't happen in what little is left of my lifetime, nor yours nor your great-to-the-power-of-? grandchildren. My palms won't live long enough to see it either. They are more worried about what will happen after I leave this mortal coil and my heirs pass my 0.61 acres on to some palm-hating philistine.

[Funkthulhu]

A warm arctic weakens the jet stream, allowing it to dip, or the "polar vortex" to break out and kill everything in Florida every couple years...  

It's just more energy in the system, which destabilizes some parts of it.  

Earth Tilt and other Milankovitch cycles can only force the climate when they are the only things actively forcing the climate; and they take many thousands of years to influence that climate.   Throw in a planet-wide cataclysm like a huge eruption (like, supervolcano huge), or an asteroid, or an intelligent species that burns hydrocarbons for fuel, and you'll end up completely overwhelming these more "subtle" effects.  

[bubba]

The Thames River in London froze over 26 times during the Mini-Ice-Age from 1408 AD to 1814 AD. This led to an interesting phenomenon known as “Frost Fairs” from 1608 AD to 1814 AD. During the last Frost Fair Fair in 1814, an elephant was led across the ftozen River Thames below the Blackfriars Bridge. The London Mango and Papaya Guild is hereby warned accordingly!

[Ed in Houston]

On 11/26/2018, 7:21:53, bubba said:

The Thames River in London froze over 26 times during the Mini-Ice-Age from 1408 AD to 1814 AD. This led to an interesting phenomenon known as “Frost Fairs” from 1608 AD to 1814 AD. During the last Frost Fair Fair in 1814, an elephant was led across the ftozen River Thames below the Blackfriars Bridge. The London Mango and Papaya Guild is hereby warned accordingly!

The University of California researches are predicting a cooler sun similar to that of the little ice age.

 

"A MINI ice age could freeze over Earth over the next thirty years as the sun is expected to be “unusually cool” and dimmer by 2050, according to scientists from the University of California."

 

"The next cold period has been labelled as a “grand minimum” during which conditions could be similar to those experienced in Europe in the middle of the 17th century."

 

"The scientists predict a “significant probability” of a near-future grand minimum because the downward sunspot pattern in recent solar cycles is similar to the period prior to previous grand minimum events."

 

"During a solar minimum, the sun’s magnetism decreases, fewer sunspots form and less ultraviolet radiation makes it to the surface of the planet. The conditions mean the sun’s surface appears clearer and it becomes dimmer."

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/917000/science-sun-cooling-earth-space-global-warming

 

From wiki:

 

"UC campuses have large numbers of distinguished faculty in almost every academic discipline, with UC faculty and researchers having won at least 62 Nobel Prizes as of 2017."

 

****

 

The University of California has a pretty good track record on scientific research and discovery. However I do not believe this is the final word on the hypothesis of global cooling.

 

Ed in Houston

[Funkthulhu]

Due to oceanic current disruption the Thames could freeze solid and the global average temperature would still rise.  Also, never believe a story unless it names the names of scientists who authored peer-reviewed articles directly related to the story.  "Scientists say" is the go to for "we can't get anybody officially on record".  Furthermore, the Express is Tabloid journalism written to attract eyeballs, not brains.

[Funkthulhu]

Also, there's no nobel prize for "global climate", no geology, no meteorology, no climatology.  The closest they've got so far is a couple of economist winning a nobel for economics about how climate is driving/affecting growth and the economy.  And neither were from a UC school.

[Ed in Houston]

28 minutes ago, Funkthulhu said:

Also, there's no nobel prize for "global climate", no geology, no meteorology, no climatology.  The closest they've got so far is a couple of economist winning a nobel for economics about how climate is driving/affecting growth and the economy.  And neither were from a UC school.

Yes I agree that the news media is on it last leg of intellectual honesty. That is why I usually check sources on matters of scientific research. The link I provided mentions that the lead researcher is Dan Lubin.

" The research team, led by physicist Dan Lubin, believes they have figured out a way to track the sun’s 11-year-cycle."

Dr Lubin has a Ph.D in astrophysicists from the University of Chicago.

http://scrippsscholars.ucsd.edu/dlubin

Dan Lubin Research Physicist

Research Interests

• Satellite remote sensing of Earth's polar regions
• Application of global climate model simulation to the polar regions
• New instrumentation and techniques for space-based remote sensing
• Stellar astrophysics related to solar variability and climate

Degrees

• B.A., Northwestern University
• M.A., US Naval War College
• M.S., University of Chicago
• Ph.D., University of Chicago

He is currently a research scientists at UC San Diego.

The University of California released an article about his solar research hypothesis.

The Sun and Climate Change: Truth is Stranger Than FictionDan Lubin, Ph.D., UC San Diego

"....there are indications that the Sun may be headed into a period of significantly reduced output by mid-century, perhaps comparable to the historical Maunder Minimum (1645-1715). During this period, the core of the “Little Ice Age,” the Thames and regions of the Baltic Sea regularly froze over during winter. Biological proxy data indicate substantial climate changes in North America as well."

Ed in Houston

 

 

 

[Funkthulhu]

Okay, so the guy has some chops, but that doesn't mean an astrological effect will easily override the anthropogenic carbon ride we're already on.  Maybe we'll get a leveling off for a few years instead of the relentless climb in temps...

[Matthew92]

Just found this video about the recent cold event in Australia with mention of sunspots possible relation.

 

[Palm crazy]

There are so many different theory on GW and G. Cooling that the only way to is to just what and see what happens! LOL. Here another opinion video. To me, I think there is a little truth in all theories.  Sorry, you may have to restart the video to the beginning. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v66SPTYqF0

Edited December 4, 2018 by Palm crazy

[RedRabbit]

FWIW: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-28/scientists-weak-ocean-circulation-could-signify-incoming-mini-ice-age

[Cikas]

On 26. 11. 2018., Funkthulhu said:

As a geologist I can say we will not be getting an Ice Age any time soon.  Likely we have overwhelmed the natural cycle with anthropogenic carbon and there will not be one in the long term either.

I Disagree. Carbon dioxide alone is not strong enough to prevent next glaciation. It will definitely happen again. 

[Funkthulhu]

I think you may be confusing human time-scale with geologic.  Eventually the earth will be swallowed by the sun and the universe will die cold, but that's a bit beyond my personal timeline.  

Nobody alive today, or several hundred years from now, will see an ice age.

 

[RJ]

3 hours ago, Cikas said:

I Disagree. Carbon dioxide alone is not strong enough to prevent next glaciation. It will definitely happen again. 

Agree, It's certainly not the control knob IMO. Carbon dioxide has been much higher in the past then it presently is prior to ice ages. Everything is cyclical. We're just along for the ride.