What is your current yard temperature?

[Foxpalms]

Low of 44f/6.6c under clear extremely calm skies last with a high of 73f/22.7c with 13% humidity. This in the second day in a row the humidity has been under 20%, desert like weather. I’m having to flood the garden with water in the morning and evening to keep certain plants growing/staying alive. UV was a 6.  The temp hasn’t dropped as fast tonight and it’s currently 56g/13.3c at 1.20am. Next week the day temps look pretty good high 60s low 70s and the nights start to warm up to the low 50s consistently. The average high for April so far has been 17.1c here and will continue to climb.

[UK_Palms]

Nice peaceful night.

2 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

Low of 44f/6.6c under clear extremely calm skies last with a high of 73f/22.7c with 13% humidity. This in the second day in a row the humidity has been under 20%, desert like weather. I’m having to flood the garden with water in the morning and evening to keep certain plants growing/staying alive. UV was a 6.  The temp hasn’t dropped as fast tonight and it’s currently 56g/13.3c at 1.20am. Next week the day temps look pretty good high 60s low 70s and the nights start to warm up to the low 50s consistently. The average high for April so far has been 17.1c here and will continue to climb.

Chilly 5.1C here at 3am under clear skies after a max of 23.1C. Humidity down to 10% here earlier.

The state of those fires in Northern Ireland tonight. Absolute infernos.

 

 

[Foxpalms]

Min of 50f/10c with a high of 72.1f/22.3c with 28% humidity. Which slowly rose late this afternoon as the clouds came in. It drizzled for a very short time this evening and that was it for rain! Uv was a 6.5. London Heathrow up to 17.3c as the average high with 4.4mm of rain this month which is slightly higher than here. 
 

[Silas_Sancona]

A nice 78F at 10:58AM on the final Tuesday of April..  Headed for somewhere in the mid / upper 80s later w/ an increase in high clouds edging into local skies thru the afternoon and evening. 


Little warmer tomorrow w/ more clouds around but still pretty reasonable for late April.  

Rest of the week looking ..about the same.. Bump up to the mid / upper 90s possible as we start May, before another system ..that currently looks dry for the valley..   shaves off a few degs again for the start of next week. 

If the system scheduled to pass thru southern AZ tomorrow / Thursday,  or the system forecast after that manages to squeeze out anything wet locally,  it will likely be similar to the random, spit -zy sprinkles that passed through town a couple days ago. 







After a pretty remarkable March that saw wayy more of them than anyone would have thought was possible,  it's pretty remarkable that in April, when you'd expect to start seeing them, we will end the month with NO 100F readings. Yeah, there's two days left in the month but,  ..Ain't gonna touch the century mark on either day.








As May   ...and the final month of Met. Spring...   arrives,  first 5 -8 days could see some deg. of a continuation of April's " up and down " / " subdued heat "  pattern as a few more troughs passing through N. Cal.,  and /or the Great Basin may help keep a lid on a quick resurgence of any big heat here..

While it's just a couple runs,  so far,    some hints are starting to show up in some of the WX Model thinking suggesting that the   .." reasonable " break we've been enjoying after the massive melt down we saw in March,  may be about to flip  ..perhaps as abruptly as it did in March by the time we reach the 10th -12th of next month.. 

Yes, ..while much can < and will likely > change < repeatedly > by that time, just as occurred before March turned sizzling,  when you start seeing hints, you start paying attention   ..Unless you're the kind of human who enjoys always being caught with their shorts down. 

..Anyway..

Scare- cast thought for now, to be tossed in the trash soon?,    ..or ..   ..a hint to eye ball periodically,  to stay ahead of what may lie ahead??  

This morning's 006Z GFS at 378 hours.. 2m temp thoughts..

While mid - 100F readings in May aren't exactly crazy,   after a   ..pretty mild..    April,   abrupt resumption of 105 /105+ heat might catch some folks by surprise / burn some stuff a little. 





500mb anomaly thoughts.. 





12z thoughts from the GFS aren't quite as bullish on building a ridge back over the area  ..keeping some deg of weak troughing lurking around the west, which in turn keeps the heat reasonable here..



That said, both the 12z EC- AIFS and AIFS  ..as well as the 12z runs of both the Ensemble - based GEFS and newly added AIFS -ENS < T- Tidbits > lean in on the idea of building some deg. of ridging / dialing up the heat over AZ and most of the the west after the 10th.. so,    ...We'll see what happens.. 



At the same time?.. Some hints from the GFS over the last few days of the East Pac. off Southern Mexico trying to spin up some sort of disturbance,  right around the start of our Hurricane season ( May 15th ) ..

Depending on which run you look at, it may do nothing, quickly fall apart and head due west,  ..or try to form an actual system and lurk off Mexico for a few days while trying to move north a bit.    Regardless,  any moisture from  ...whatever...  it does,  should it even develop into an actual system at all,    stays well south of AZ over areas of Mexico south of Mazatlan,  and/ or  Puerto Vallarta.. 

A start to    ...what could be a very busy season,  ahead?
 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

Reasonable 90F at 1:07PM as some " summer-y " moisture moves in from the south / southwest..

Compact, and quick moving upper level low that had potential to bring us some end of  " April showers " now looks to stay too far south to bring us anything ..anything meaningful at least.. as it works it's way east across the AZ / N.M. /Mex. border toward El Paso over the next 12 -18 hours.. 

That said,  late - spring upper level lows are notorious for doing unexpected things sometimes so i'm not completely ruling out ..at least a sprinkle or two sometime this evening / over night.. about as far north as a line following the 202 from Chandler to Gold Canyon. 

" Better " rain and storm chances will stay south and east of Casa Grande and Tucson ..Roughly 20 -35% chances respectively..

Best chances will be confined to areas over far S.E.'rn AZ ..Mainly Cochise Co.  where there is an outside threat for isolated flash flooding issues / daily rainfall records to be broken in a few spots if some of the showers /storms down there generate heavier rainfall. 

While we likely won't see much ..if any.. water falling from the sky up here,   storm activity down south could generate a strong enough north / northwest - moving outflow to generate some dust / 35 /35+ mph wind gusts passing through the area. 



As sunrise arrives on the first day of May,  storm will be headed into central TX.,  and we'll be heating up  ..For the weekend at least.. 



Next upper level system anticipated to pass through the area will arrive by Sunday or Monday, knocking back temps. into the 80s again  ...for a few days at least. 


Still watching for signs of a bigger heat wave arriving  around the 8 -10th,  and the E. Pac. west of southern Mex.. 

More later

[JohnAndSancho]

Cold. And I just put away the space heater and my flannel Jammies and shut off the gas to the Carbon Monoxide Machine in the grow room. It's in the low 50s and supposed to get in the 40s the next couple nights. And I'm pretty sure we're out of drought status by now. As I write this we've had 5" of rain this week and it's supposed to stay raining all weekend. ⁹

[SeanK]

8 hours ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Cold. And I just put away the space heater and my flannel Jammies and shut off the gas to the Carbon Monoxide Machine in the grow room. It's in the low 50s and supposed to get in the 40s the next couple nights. And I'm pretty sure we're out of drought status by now. As I write this we've had 5" of rain this week and it's supposed to stay raining all weekend. ⁹

We got our one to 2" of rain up here. Nice change. Looks like rains will remain across the I10 corridor for a few days.

[Silas_Sancona]

Breezy 83F at 9:19AM, headed for the mid -90s later as another batch of high clouds rolling in off the E. Pac. builds into the area thru the day..

Lil toasty,  yet a lil cloudy tomorrow before the next passing system shaves off about 10 -12 deg for the start of next week. ..77 -82F, w/ maybe some clouds around on Cinco De Mayo?   yeah, we'll all take that  

 ..Enjoy it cuz the return of our " typical " May sizzle?  appears to return by next weekend..



Tucson / S. AZ stats aren't out yet but, ..how April stacked up for PHX, Yuma, and El Centro..



Interesting that we continued the above norm streak for the spring season < ..year itself really... > , despite escaping April w/ no 100F readings this year.

Some interesting stats from CA last month as well... 





..And yes,   Last, bigger severe storm set up out there did produce a rare " CA. 'Nader "..First in a couple years. 

Another set up for storms arrives across N.Cal today / tomorrow.. 



Overall April Thunderstorm activity across a lot of CA  was also elevated compared to what is typical.  Influence from the on-going Marine heatwave probably had it's fingers all over this pattern this year. 

W/ El Nino signal SSTs just about ready to explode -at the surface- just off Ecuador,  and the Subtrop / 4 corners ridge to start building in shortly,  anticipate seeing a big jump SSTs off CA by mid June, if not sooner. 





Looking further out?  Taken - with - salt CFS thoughts on how May could look.. 




Not too concerned about any suggested precip anoms here since this is the driest period of the year and it would only take approx.  +0.10" to qualify as " wet " locally..

In fact, the storm that passed thru the far southern 3rd of the state yesterday could account for the " above norm " lean in May's forecast     ....or could something else tip the scales in that direction,   later??

Regardless, some impressive #s for the end of April down in the borderlands from this system..






Bigger thing to eyeball this month is the above / below precip. trend in Mexico ...which,  for now,  is looking to only get wetter as we move deeper into the month.  Tropics may play a significant part in that as well.




As mentioned before, more confirmation that the E. Pac. may be about to awaken, maybe as soon as this time next week.. 

If not then, then right around when the season officially kicks off.. 

Increasing chatter that this could be a big year out here as well. 



We'll see if we end up with a named system before the average occurrence date, which is in early June. 




Since it is May,  Fire Weather concerns can't be ignored ..both locally and regionally..  While there have been a few fires already,  season seems to be getting off to a slower start than i'd had expected considering the factors influencing things this year.

Perhaps that changes once the heat starts building back in after next weekend??

Regardless, will be interesting to see how things play out here this month / into the start of June..  Note the mention regarding thoughts on this year's Monsoon could look.

I'd replace " Robust " ..with " Frisky  ..and Flood -y  " 




May, June, July, Aug. maps..




Full PDF discussion:
https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf






Lastly,   ..for now..     ** Added dashes of salt please..     ....CFS thoughts'  peak at how June could kick off..   

Temps:




Precip:




Increasingly wet signal tilt in Mexico,  Wet signal presence across New Mexico < ..Where the Monsoon usually starts to set up,  first >  =  Liking what i'm seeing        ..Fingers crossed 

[Than]

I'm so gutted I actually came here to vent. It's May and it should be lovely but apparently we're having the coldest May of the last 70 years and rn temperature outside is 38 F! Forecast had predicted 47F and stupidly i believed it.

My Kigelia has just produced some new leaves after winter dormancy and I'm afraid they will be ruined. Same with my hibiscus schizopetalus. Also yesterday I planted 100 vetiver plants in the ground and I'm now worried I lost my money... 

Worse still tonight is expected to be even colder! I can't believe I'll have to use fleece again in May 🤬

[Mazat]

4 hours ago, Than said:

I'm so gutted I actually came here to vent. It's May and it should be lovely but apparently we're having the coldest May of the last 70 years and rn temperature outside is 38 F! Forecast had predicted 47F and stupidly i believed it.

My Kigelia has just produced some new leaves after winter dormancy and I'm afraid they will be ruined. Same with my hibiscus schizopetalus. Also yesterday I planted 100 vetiver plants in the ground and I'm now worried I lost my money... 

Worse still tonight is expected to be even colder! I can't believe I'll have to use fleece again in May 🤬

Oh, dear Than 🤗, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the weather changes soon and returns to normal seasonal temperatures. Which weather station near you gives a good idea of what the weather's like where you are? I'd be really interested to know—and how are you doing otherwise ?

[Than]

3 hours ago, Mazat said:

Oh, dear Than 🤗, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the weather changes soon and returns to normal seasonal temperatures. Which weather station near you gives a good idea of what the weather's like where you are? I'd be really interested to know—and how are you doing otherwise ?

It's Kalamata airport (not the city). I am expecting another 3 C tonight but this time I will bring vetiver and all seedlings indoors and I will cover my Roystonea and hibiscus.. I was out on a ladder at 7am this morning trying to throw a double sheet over my sausage tree but it was too tall and I failed. I must've been a ridiculous spectacle.

All good here but loads of manual work.. new house needs so many amendments; today I planted another 50 vetiver on the slope to stop the landslides in the winter.. next I need to remove a fitted wardrobe from the wall, then install a solar water heater... it just never stops. How are you? How are your plants? 

[Silas_Sancona]

Break in the clouds = great morning in the 70s jumping into the lowers 90s at 1:18PM..  Should hit the upper 90s before the next batch of high clouds rolls in sometime around Sunset. 

Chop 10 -15deg off tomorrow under mostly cloudy skies  ..which might squeeze out a sprinkle or two sometime tomorrow evening around the valley.

Take it down a few more degs under partly cloudy to mainly sunny skies on Tuesday / Cinco De Mayo.. 

 Enjoy it cuz it may be the last sub -80 /85F day we'll see until -at least- a rain cooled day during Monsoon Season ..if not later on..


..Now up to 105 - 106F by this time next week   ..Perhaps eclipsing 106F  by Tuesday of the following week. 



Eye - balling some " interesting things " trying to sneak into the forecast via the last 5 or 6 runs of various WX models around the same time as well..    ....And no, that's not including any on going " tropically -themed "  hints the models continue toying with atm. 


FYI :  for us locals ( Western / Southwestern U.S. peeps )  Dan will be live tomorrow at 2PM, PST for his take on the upcoming return of the heat  ..and other stuff..

[Silas_Sancona]

941mb Hurricane formation off Mexico,  around the 20th??


Reality :  Ahhh yes,   ...I see we're starting the  " Fantasy Canes "  Dumpster runs  early this year??..


Make believe reality reasoning attempt: =  = but, but, who thought it would be 100+ ..for days..  in March.. 




< Squints and crosses his fingers while whispering >   ..I wish it were true,   i wish it were true..  😂 🙃



78F, breezy,  and cloudy at 11:19PM..   

Chance of seeing " slightly more than occasional spit " increased   ..by a couple hairs..  for the valley for tomorrow evening.  

[Foxpalms]

Min of 54.5f/12.5c with a high of 62.6/17c with 67% humidity. Thankfully that extremely dry air 10%s 20%s rh has gone for now.  Had a small amount of rain the other day which brings the total so far to 1mm.  We had a few days in the 70s now back to the 60s, 1st was 78f/25.5c. I put a few archontophoenix seedlings, likely myolensis x tuckeri but could be anything into the pond waterfall toady. I was beyond impressed with how well they tolerate water, including cold water. Some were in pots with no drainage holes and sat in standing cold water all winter with 0 root rot only some minor frost burn. And put out decent growth throughout April.

[Mazat]

On 5/3/2026 at 3:17 PM, Than said:

It's Kalamata airport (not the city). I am expecting another 3 C tonight but this time I will bring vetiver and all seedlings indoors and I will cover my Roystonea and hibiscus.. I was out on a ladder at 7am this morning trying to throw a double sheet over my sausage tree but it was too tall and I failed. I must've been a ridiculous spectacle.

All good here but loads of manual work.. new house needs so many amendments; today I planted another 50 vetiver on the slope to stop the landslides in the winter.. next I need to remove a fitted wardrobe from the wall, then install a solar water heater... it just never stops. How are you? How are your plants? 

I took a look at the data. Thanks so much for the info, Than. You're in a tough spot, too, really. Yeah, I'd play it safe as well.

Yeah, it's really dangerous on a slope. And something really stupid actually happened to me—I got distracted on Monday evening and wanted to fill in some more soil. In any case, my phone probably fell into the mound of dirt and I couldn’t find it anymore. Besides, you shouldn’t be doing things like that late at night. We searched and dug, but nothing happened. Then I wanted to get a new one—or rather, the same model—which was all set to be reserved nearby. But when I stopped by on Tuesday, they didn’t have it; they said there had been a mistake and that particular model was sold out. Then on Wednesday I headed toward Konstanz, and they had it at the discount store there. I bought it, but I still needed a SIM card, so I ordered one, and it’ll be in the mail tomorrow. To top it all off, Sabine was on duty the whole time and she needs her own cell phone, so I’m only getting around to this today—it’s a disaster. I had to postpone two appointments because of this nonsense... somehow it’s really strange—we searched everywhere and found nothing, as if it had just vanished. In the end, we had to laugh anyway—me at my lack of focus and Sabine at me.

PS:Sorry for the late reply. The plants are doing well here so far; thanks to the extreme conditions, they’ve grown a lot. I’ll take some pictures once everything is set up again—hopefully tomorrow.

 

 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

Slightly toasty 93F at 4:48PM under ..essentially.. clear skies..   Essentially = a cloud or two and maybe some smoke from a new fire up north ( Wind direction currently appears to be directing smoke south toward this side of the valley )

Further south? compact, cutoff, upper level low spins across parts of N. Sonora and the borderlands across S. AZ.  Someone, somewhere down there might see a sprinkle,  ..maybe catch some flashes flashing just above the southern horizon before this system heads toward the plains tomorrow..





Other than that? 

One " nice " evening <  for those who love their morning lows in the 60s  >   ..before it's   ...essentially  ..nuthin' but 100s and 70s   from tomorrow,  until.....



Throw in some clouds ..per the current forecast suggestions.. at times and..  What you see,  is what you get  ..for now.    Pretty standard stuff for May here really.. 




NMME May update is out and   ..While a slam dunk is never a guarantee,  the closer we get to the start of Monsoon season ..Currently just a little over a month away..     the more all the WX model suggestions pointing toward a wet summer / start to fall ahead  become tougher to ignore. 


Lead 1:




Today's thoughts from the CFSv2  for June:






...We'll see how this looks next week..




Lead 2: July





Lead 3: Aug.





Lead 4: Sept.






Lead 5: Oct.





Pretty solid wet lean in a majority of the individual NMME / IMME models,  all the way thru October across this side of the world   right now..  

...We'll see how thoughts from both the Copernicus long range models,  and CPC monthly update look like soon..

Regardless, Mexico continues to look good  ..If the current forecasts are correct, activity should pick up a bit after a recent lull across the southern and eastern half of the country as the subtropical / 4 corners High starts setting up down there over the next 3 weeks.. We'll see. 





Also,  just a week left to go before the start of Hurricane season  ..on the best coast.. 


 No solid  hints of an early riser on the models atm but,  we'll see what happens..  Closer we get to June,  and SSTs between southern Mex. and N. Baja already off to a warmer than normal start,  it is inevitable something gets stirred up down there, soon. 

This year's names.. 





Could we use  ..all of them...  this year???   Next year? ..maybe we'll find Waldo,  LOL..

[Silas_Sancona]

98F ..and climbing.. at 1:25PM as we head into a hot Mom's Day weekend ahead..

Since the 109F forecast for that time is still on the board, We'll see whether or not we crack 110F by Monday.

As expected, heat products are already hoisted..   Stay hydrated, and  OFF  THE TRAILS  during peak heat hours..





Since it gives us a glimpse into the start of June, today's 3 -4  week maps n' precip -relatd thoughts on how things might look around and right after Memorial Day.. 







Will change ofcourse,  and taken with the usual, healthy dose of " we'll see "  but   ..like what i'm seeing,  even this far out..  Isn't the only forecast thoughts hinting at increased moisture potential for the Southwest around that time / as we head into June either. 

We'll also see if anything tropical that could develop after mid month plays a part in boosting any moisture surge that reaches AZ / western N.M at that time.. 

For now,  Stay cool out there..    Save Energy, and play in the dark   ..or at least after the sun sets..  

[UK_Palms]

I will keep this brief... 23C / 74F max here today. ☀️

El Nino typically produces cool/wet summers in the UK (unlike La Nina and ENSO neutral), but I strongly suspect the extent of the Csb (warm-summer Med) forcing in southern England will completely override that signal nowadays.

Previous moderate-strong El Nino transitions in spring-summer (1997 and 2015 come to mind) are the main analogs. Both cool, wet, cloudy summers, however the proper Csb transition has kicked in since then (circa 2017 so to speak). So I fully suspect it to override that typical pattern and we have yet another warm, dry summer. That would be quite telling if it does override the analogs, as I expect. And prove the switch to warm-summer Med in southern/eastern England.

So all eyes on rainfall patterns this year, given the setup should favour the wettest possible outlook for us here.

Although even right now it is very dry here, 1mm of rain over the past 6 weeks lol.