What is your current yard temperature?

[Silas_Sancona]

A warm 90F at 12:04PM, headed to somewhere between 93 -95F later..  BIG changes as we end the weekend / start the first full week of May / final month of Spring..

Cold storm now deepening somewhere off the coast of S. Cal will head east into the deserts over the next couple days providing a rare opportunity for " May showers " for parts of the low deserts sometime tomorrow / tomorrow night ..along with another round of dusty wind and a big drop in temps by Monday / Cinco de Mayo.. 

Orientation and currently suggested timing of this storm as it approaches + May sun angle and just enough surface heating ( Upper 70s suggested for tomorrow. Better if we reach above 80F ) could be enough to spark a few storms as well.. We'll see if we actually squeeze out more than 0.05"

High country, which has been where most scattered shower and storm activity has been hanging out over the last few days, will have a better opportunity for any wetting rains / inch or two of snow at the highest elevations.


After what could be one of the coolest Cinco de Mayo in several years on Monday, ..if we stay within the suggested temp range..  and a couple days for the associated trough w/ this storm to head east, it looks like the wavy temp ride over the last couple weeks may finally end, settling back into our typical pattern of building may heat..







With that comes the possibility for our first round of extended highs reaching ..or exceeding.. 100F ..depending on what forecast model / Forecast model run pans out.   Both the current 10 -14 day forecasts have wavered between mostly in the 90s, to seeing our first 105F reading before may 20th..  ..with several other days above 100 mixed in..   We'll see...





Being May, it is also time to start monitoring how the rainy season starts to build across Mexico as the Subtropical High sets up down there and slowly starts edging further north thru the month..

Thus far, eastern and southeastern quarter of Mexico have been lighting up a bit < Light Green line ), with occasional, isolated storm activity bleeding a touch further north at times along the southern end of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Still mainly dry down there, but, progress.  While some longer term model runs are more optimistic compared to others atm, need to see how things progress thru the month..

Other lines on the map depict how things should advance if this is going to be a wetter year ..both here and in N. Mexico this summer..




Purple line = isolated to scattered storm activity steadily progressing westward across Chihuahua, toward the Central Sierra Madre Occidental / more consistent storm activity building across areas of S. Mexico soth of Puerto Vallarta / some deg. of " high - based " storm activity beginning to seep into the mountains of New Mexico by around may 25th..

Yellow Line = where isolated, High - based < Dry > Thunderstorm activity should be occurring / increasing in frequency by the 1st week of June, esp. across the mountains in Eastern AZ / N. Mexico.  Is also around the same time buildups / isolated, quick, high based shower activity can occur in the mountains in both Baja Sur, and Baja Norte / nearby mountains of San Diego County..

By that time, stronger storm activity should be increasing / inching closer to AZ up the Sierra Madre Occidental / daily storms occurring across Southern Mexico ..up to about Mazatlan / Culiacan..

Generally, coastal Sinaloa should start seeing rain by around the 22nd of June..


Dark Green line = ongoing periods of storminess seen across Eastern New Mexico / Texas over the last couple weeks...  In a suggested, ideal, pre -monsoon setup, it is thought that if the Southern Plains are wetter than normal in May and early June, that can help with moisture transport < towards the west > as the 4 corners / Subtropical  High reaches it's idealized location near the 4 corners later in June...

We'll see how long that pattern lasts / how quickly ..or not.. the 4 corners high / Rainy season across Mexico starts to build north as the Wx pattern turns from the highly amplified swings of spring, to the settling down while cranking up the heat a little more each week kind of pattern we see as we reach the start of  pre monsoon season fore- summer...


Because it starts in less than 12 days, time to start watching the Eastern Pacific too...   Been at least 2 model runs over the past week that were hinting at the possibility of some sorta disturbance trying to get going off far S. Mexico. Doubtful ..but, you never know..

Aside from the obvious cold streak off western Baja Sur,  and another weaker patch off the S. Oregon / far N. Cal. coast  widespread below average SST anomalies are pretty hard to come by across the entire E. Pacific atm.  








 

[OutpostPalms]

Bay St Louis, MS 10:30pm 77F and bracing for a deluge of rain. Something like 6-8” of rain coming yet this week I heard. 

 

 

[sandgroper]

Currently a pleasant 24c at 4.00pm.

[Silas_Sancona]

A mild 62F at 12:25AM w/ some lingering clouds  after a cloudy and quite nice ..And rare for May.. 74F earlier today.

3 day rainfall maps say it all... Despite a very monsoon looking set up on Sunday as this upper level storm rolled into the state, tops of summer- like  storms that formed over the far west side of the valley during the afternoon completely shaded out this side of town right at the peak of daytime heating, leaving us high and dry,  while parts of the west side got some pretty decent rainfall, and a good late afternoon / early evening light show..

Same story occurred on Monday and today ( though storms and the majority of rainfall stayed up in N.W. AZ today ) as the back side of this storm wandered east across AZ.




 

While some forecast model output tonight teases possible scattered rain chances tomorrow afternoon as a final lobe of low pressure passes through, i'd be very surprised if we see anything.

Now that this storm is headed east through TX,  we dry out  ..and heat up   ..fast

83-86 tomorrow, mid / upper 90s on Friday  ..100 / 100+ for  the weekend.  Thankfully, for now at least,  looking like temps will pull back a little next week as another late spring trough passes through the Great Basin / N. Rockies.




That said, we'll see how long we can keep holding off the start of daily 100 / 100+ readings.  Building subtropical High across Mexico will bring the springtime roller coaster ride to a screeching stop soon.

Cinco de Mayo may have been quite nice, ..by May in the Sonoran desert standards,  Mom's Day looking hot ..but not too bad ( ...because it won't stay as hot ) 

But.....

I fully anticipate the final days of the final month of the season ends with a sizzle.. 

[sandgroper]

Currently a warm 29c at 4.00pm.

[sandgroper]

Currently 14c at 7.00am heading for a sunny top of 32c.

[Shaheen Hassan]

Mild highs of 35.0°C today.

Milder than the May average of 39.4°C high and 28.0°C low.

[Silas_Sancona]

Toasty, blast furnace -y  90F at 11:16AM,  headed for the low 100s later under horizon to horizon sun.

Unusual < ..but not unheard of > power play between a bulge in the subtrop. High overhead, and a low spinning over the N.' eastern Gulf of Mexico / Louisiana creating strong easterly / southeasterly winds across central and southern AZ today ..and likely again tomorrow..

...Is unusual in the sense that southeasterly wind events we can experience often accompany westward moving disturbances during the Monsoon season, rather than in the dead of May.  Can see some build ups over the White Mtns in far E' rn AZ, some other spots up on the Rim west of there, and in far N.eastern AZ  too..  Those may translate to some brief, weak showers / maybe a dry T-storm or two later, w/ some debris clouds wandering west off the mountains near sunset..






Other than that, your typical May heat ..at least for the weekend..

Next passing trough may knock temps back a bit -to the mid 80s-,   -for a day or two-   mid week,  before it's back to the 90s  -at least- as we head into the middle / toward the end of the month  ...and Spring 2025 here in the Desert. 

Keeping an eye on the E. Pac over far S. Mexico for something interesting as the final days of the month approach as well..

[Silas_Sancona]

3 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Toasty, blast furnace -y  90F at 11:16AM,  headed for the low 100s later under horizon to horizon sun.

Unusual < ..but not unheard of > power play between a bulge in the subtrop. High overhead, and a low spinning over the N.' eastern Gulf of Mexico / Louisiana creating strong easterly / southeasterly winds across central and southern AZ today ..and likely again tomorrow..

...Is unusual in the sense that southeasterly wind events we can experience often accompany westward moving disturbances during the Monsoon season, rather than in the dead of May.  Can see some build ups over the White Mtns in far E' rn AZ, some other spots up on the Rim west of there, and in far N.eastern AZ  too..  Those may translate to some brief, weak showers / maybe a dry T-storm or two later, w/ some debris clouds wandering west off the mountains near sunset..






Other than that, your typical May heat ..at least for the weekend..

Next passing trough may knock temps back a bit -to the mid 80s-,   -for a day or two-   mid week,  before it's back to the 90s  -at least- as we head into the middle / toward the end of the month  ...and Spring 2025 here in the Desert. 

Keeping an eye on the E. Pac over far S. Mexico for something interesting as the final days of the month approach as well..

Quick update:

In a sign of the season,  If you're seeing increasingly smoky skies around town atm, a decent sized fire to our southeast is the culprit..

Yellow = general wind flow direction today / tomorrow.

Red circle = Bryce Fire location ( Fort Thomas AZ area )

Orange = current direction where smoke is moving

Lt. Green = build ups over the Mountains / Rim / 4 corners area of the state..  Maybe an iso. sprinkle up there in spots




100F  close to the house / 97 - 106 in various neighborhoods nearby  at 2:52PM..

[sandgroper]

Currently 25c heading for a sunny top of 27c, beautiful weather.

[Silas_Sancona]

After another toasty, yet cloudy < at times > afternoon, 87F at 9:43PM under passing subtropical high clouds..

W/ the clouds anticipated to hang around thru most of the night, temps will be slow to cool.  Be surprised if we make it back to the suggested low of 75 by sunrise.

If they do break before sunrise, next surge of high clouds currently streaming northeast from the tropical East Pacific will be entering the picture for the day tomorrow.

Weak upper level low wayy offshore should fade away as it slowly drifts around out there over the next few days..



Instead of 104, passing periods of cloudiness  and increasing breeziness tomorrow afternoon might keep temps closer to 100 tomorrow,  as the next trough expected to pass through the Pac. N.W. / far N. Cal. and  Great Basin this week approaches.

Quick " cool " down still on tap for the rest of the week ahead ..Cool down here in mid May = mid / upper 80s and low 90s.

Nights? ..back to the refreshing lower to mid 60s..


As hot as we were today, despite the clouds, i see all sorts of records were shattered today ( and yesterday apparently ) across many areas of S. Cal.. Relief already inbound out there, though with a threat of a significant, overnight sundowner wind event across Santa Barbara County tonight and possibly again tomorrow night..


Despite the warm evening, clouds made for a good sunset, w/ the sounds of crickets and Mariachi wafting through open window as a neighbor a block over entertains family for Mother's day.  

Can't ask for a better opening to the final few weeks of Spring in the Desert..

[Foxpalms]

Sunday: High of 26c/78.8f with 27% humidity.

Today: Minimum of 60f/15.5c with a high of 25c/77f with 48% humidity. 

Managed to finally get a bit of rain however still not that much.  Currently sunny with clear skies here whilst towards the north west there's a large thunderstorm with a lot of lightning strikes, almost a constant sound of thunder. 

The average high for May is already up to 20.2c at London Heathrow. I wouldn't be surprised if this May's average high averages 21c.

 

[UK_Palms]

An utterly pathetic maximum of 24C / 75F here today. It’s not often the south of England is one of the coolest parts! 

Seems you’ve got to go to Scotland and northern England for the heat. Temps pushing 28-29C in some Scottish villages today.

 

Pretty warm around Peterborough in the Midlands though.

It looks like Blackpool took the official max with 27.4C earlier…

 

Summer has come early for us this year. Scottish Highlands have got amazing weather, but still chilly at night. They’ll probably have 25C in the Highlands tomorrow.

[Silas_Sancona]

85F at 10:45PM under passing clouds and lingering breezes after windy afternoon #1 as the anticipated arrival of the next trough starts this weeks cool down..

101 today, 87-91F tomorrow, few degs. cooler Wednesday ...before a quick rebound to the low 90s for the end of the week ..before another trough pulls temps back down as we reach the final 10 days of May..

After that?  ...Welll, 

While i'm sure it is one of those overdone / overly enthusiastic / heat- biased  rando Model Runs that will likely end up in the trash and forgotten shortly,  Tonight's 00Z GFS taking a stab at my earlier musings on the potential for a sizzling Memorial Day / Memorial Day weekend / start to meteorological Summer.

Again, likely a laugh -worthy as it gets tossed into the trash kinda' model run  ....but,  ...If the first subtle nudge of a bigger pattern change ahead?


....Which this paragraph from today's thoughts on the 8 -14 day forecast may be hinting at as well  IE:  possible relaxation of the currently wavy / highly amplified Wx pattern of late across the U.S..  If it occurs, this would allow the subtropical High to start  steadily building north out of Mexico with less resistance ( Because there would be less troughiness passing thru the Great Basin which = less knocking it back south each time it tries to puff it's chest  / drop anchor over the west..

We'll see how this looks on Friday when the next 3 -4 week forecast gets issued.
 

Regardless.....

....588mb 1000 -500mb Thick ( dam ) over Cen. AZ...  582 stretched as far north as S. Idaho..




= potential 500mb height anomalies of....




..Which,  = suggested 5PM Surface temps on the 28th..




End result, if it pans out,  ....Whoaah  Momma.. 

[Shaheen Hassan]

01:00 PM

 

14/05/2025

Sunny

Temperature: 43.1°C

Dew point: 8.7°C

Humidity: 13.0%

Wind: SE 4 km/h

[Silas_Sancona]

79 -82 around town at 8:13AM,  on the way to the upper 90s - low 100's later..

After a nice end to the weekend / start to the 2nd to last week in May ....And Spring...  heat is going to kick it up a notch this week.  Nothing too crazy but mid 100's ( 104 - 108F ) look likely as this next bump up peaks on Thursday..

As we reach the final week of the month and season next week?  ..Things could get  ...Quite  hot..

Not showing on the current WX Undg. 10 day..





But is being dangled at the end of the current 14 day on Time and Date..






We'll see if this is another hint  ..or another overly enthusiastic ..and HOT... to be tossed in the trash soon  individual model run but ...GFS back at it w/ big time heat descending upon the deserts ( ..possibly beyond ..Ahem, California.... ) by the first day of Meteorological Summer.


597mb ( dam ) heights flexing their muscles over AZ ( ....or overall region )  = Dammmm Hot,  lol..





Fore- summer ..That magical time of year when a pretty shade of purple on the Tidbits 2meter temp maps hints at impending torture..
















Start of June = not unusual for this kind of heat to set in but,  ..no one is ever really prepared to face it once it arrives..

Various forecasters have been hinting at a similar heatwave lurking on the horizon as well so,   We'll see what happens.   Get yourself ..and any sun sensitive leafy things not yet ready to face some good sizzlin' ready ..Just in case.

Fingers crossed = Land cooking right out of the gate as June arrives = relief ..in the form of rains arriving on time  and enthusiastically this year   is just around the corner..


 

[Foxpalms]

Min of 10.6c/51f with a high of 23.5c/74.5f with 31%. The UV index was 7.8. cooler weather next week with the end of May and early June showing signs of potentially warm-hot weather. Iberia is above average at the moment at looks like they are getting warm-hot dry weather. So any air masses coming up are going to be very warm.

The grass is already very dry looking. 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

A toasty 97F at 6:57PM, after topping out at 103. Up, a couple more degs. tomorrow, before we pull back to the upper 90s and introduce a few clouds here and there for the Memorial Day Weekend ahead.

For now, looks like the big, nuke fest the GFS was dangling in front of us as the end of the month arrives next weekend a few days ago was just a one hit wonder  ..but.... Not totally writing off some deg of a rebound in that thinking.  I simply don't trust what any of the models are spitting out atm..

After a brief cool down over the weekend, temps will rebound to at least the low 100s next week, possibly ticking up a few more degrees by June 1st and the start of Met. Summer.

On a side note, as if the weather of late hasn't been a shade unusual enough, all the current WX models, Hurricane Center, ..and current discussions in the 10 and 14 day forecasts are all hinting at the possibility of some sort of tropical development off S.W.' ern Mexico in the E. Pacific in the closing days of the month next week.

Right now, Hurricane Center is hanging a 40% chance of development on this system some time next week.



Not unusual to see the first tropical system of the East Pac. season spin up out there in late May.  Sometimes that even occurs at the start of the month ..or in late April, ..but, last time we saw formation of the season's first storm, before June 1st,  was  back in 2022.

Of more interest is that some of the current model thoughts bring the system very close to the southern tip of Baja before it exits stage left out into the Pacific.

At the same time, a weak cut off low could develop off S. Cal / N. Baja and funnel some of the storm's remnant moisture toward AZ as it advances east or northeast.. 

Have seen these types of pre Monsoon season setups before but,  most usually occur later in June.  Early June would be a little unusual  -if-  it were to happen.  Really unusual if it brought actual rainfall / storms  ..Something today's 12Z ECMWF is a bit enthusiastic about.

Of bigger concern could be the system passing close enough to the Southwestern Coast of Mexico south of Puerto Vallarta, right as it peaks in strength, to cause some trouble there..

At the very least, it will be something worth watching over the week ahead..



Quick look at Mexico using the COD Satellite Clean ( LWIR ) imagery,  reasonable level of  widespread storm activity today / this evening down there. Exactly what i want to see on the map in late May.



 

[SeanK]

11PM in the Atlanta metro area and a dry 70°F. Yesterday was sunny and 90°F. In the wee hours a front pushed through with thunderstorms and rain. It was a nice dry day today.

[Silas_Sancona]

A reasonable 93F at 11:05AM  as some clouds start rolling back into the area.. Should thicken enough as the rest of the day progresses to keep temps locked in the lower 100s. 

Mostly cloudy and ..maybe only topping out in the upper 90s tomorrow..

As the final days of Spring / first day of Met Summer arrives ..as this week ends, some very interesting, and somewhat unusual weather, for the start of June, may usher in " Summer 2025 "

Now that we're closer to when things may occur,  ..thus,  thoughts on what may occur are a lot clearer now,   AZ and S. Cal -at the very least- may experience one of those " once in a Blue Moon " types of weather set ups you typically don't expect to see during the hottest / driest period of the year here.. 

While exact timing /  the " how much we gonna get  " rain type details are still hard to nail down,  looks like we may see a legit taste of Monsoon Season 2025, a couple weeks ahead of schedule, complete w/ a legit threat for wetting rain, thunderstorms ..across a large chunk of the low deserts / into parts of S. Cal, below the mountains, ..High humidity / Pwat #'s / Dew points ..for a few days, right as the calendar flips. 

Looking at the set up, two big players are getting into position on the Chess Board as we speak..

#1: Upper level low that had brought some storminess to Hawaii now edging closer to the S. Cal. Coastline..  Can see that it is  already generating convection / storms.



If it follows the suggested forecast, it is supposed to get a little closer to the coast before diving south to a position somewhere just off Baja Del Norte ..then just sit there for a couple days, helping to create a moderate degree of southerly flow into AZ/ S.Cal.. Will also help draw some moisture west into the mountains of Eastern AZ from New Mexico and W. TX. 

While all of that is happening, a large and potentially record breaking area of High Pressure will crank up the heat for N.Cal and the Pac. N.W.  Don't be surprised to hear of temps reaching exceeding the 107-110 range somewhere in the Northern Cen. Valley over the next few days.

Will only last a day but, not out of the question parts of the South and East Bay ( Bay Area ) reach 100F ..Which is rare for late May.. 


Playa' #2:   ...At the same time,  ..What will likely end up the season's first named E. Pac.  Tropical system < Alvin >  sometime tonight / tomorrow will head N.W. along the S.W. coast of Mexico before skipping across the mouth of the Gulf to a position somewhere near Cabo ( San Lucas ) ..or closer to the Sinaloa coast, near Mazatlan where it should fall apart.







Either way, it is looking like a good deal of it's remnant moisture will be drawn north toward S. Cal, AZ, and N.M. by stronger southerly flow between the stalled out Upper level Low off Baja, and the above - mentioned area of High pressure as it retreats back toward the Plains by Sunday.

In many ways, the set up over the next few days strongly mirrors the " Transitional " Wx events we can see toward the end of Monsoon Season.. While i don't expect the same result this time around,  in some cases, those events can drop a pretty good amount of rainfall..

If we're lucky, i'd say 0.08- 0.15" would be a good estimate on rainfall #'s seen around the valley,  which would be pretty rare for the first half of June.  

That said, if some of the more bullish models thoughts were to pan out,  .25" .up to ..maybe .50" type rainfall totals ..in the valley... can't be taken off the table either.. 


Looking at the " Monsoon Season " records,  June rainfall totals at / above .25" in Phoenix are very rare. Tucson on the other hand would need to see 1" of rain fall from this event for it to fall into the " rare " category.   Since this event will fall outside the " official " start of Monsoon Season ( June 15th ) not even sure if they'd count it in the seasonal total to begin with.   

Regardless, it will be interesting to see how things shake out as the forecast progresses over the next few days..  Temps will definitely pull back a bit due to cloudiness / increasing humidity and dew points ...that could top out just above 60deg   ..rare for early June   

..and may stay slightly below normal after this rare June rain chance passes as another, drier trough passes thru the Great Basin and holds temps in the  " Reasonably Hot " zone across the low deserts for most of next week..    ...If the current forecast holds... 




..We'll see what things look like further out on the horizon  after our rare start to summer excitement over the weekend has passed.. 



FYI,  For those interested:   

** Daniel Swain will be live in a couple hours w/ his thoughts on this weekend / next week **

[Silas_Sancona]

An oddly tropical feeling 90F at 7:01PM under partly cloudy skies after barely making it past 100 earlier this afternoon.. 

As expected, the depression that had formed off S.W. Mexico has become the first tropical Storm of the 2025 E. Pac. Hurricane Season overnight. Singing Chipmunk or not, Alvin is his name.. Looking quite healthy atm too. 





At the same time, Upper level Low approaching the CA / N/ Baja coast yesterday is now positioned right off the coast of roughly San Quinten, BCN.. Where it will retrograde toward the southwest over the next 24 -32 hours, before heading N.E. toward AZ Saturday night and thru the day Sunday ..per the current forecast.. 

At the moment, the upper level low continues to draw mid / high level moisture into the state.  Is also starting to pull low level moisture west from eastern Mexico..




As it works it's way back toward Baja / starts advancing toward AZ, main surge of moisture associated with should - be - decaying T.S. Alvin will get pulled north into the state / region giving us a Wx pattern rarely observed in early June.. Complete with what could be record setting rainfall., storms, and ..a Pre - Monsoon Season dust storm perhaps?.

Now, while a tenth to ..possibly .50" of rain falling anywhere in the low deserts might sound minimal to ..pretty much anyone living in most other parts of the country,  let alone when our Monsoon Season is at peak, full tilt mode,  keep in mind that rainfall  ...any..... rainfall, ..other than spit..  is almost unheard of in early June.. Rare enough thru the majority of the month as it is..

Paragraph in today's local NWS discussion puts that in perspective quite nicely




While things could change by Sunday, is looking like we could easily crush the above mentioned 0.02" rainfall amount recorded in ....1914..  We'll see if thunderstorm activity associated downpours gets us to ..or over.. the 0.41" mark mentioned as well. 

Some model runs today have even hinted that the upper level low could linger west of the region a bit longer than currently forecast, extending potential rain chances into Monday ..only to be backed up by another upper level low that might sink down the CA coast to roughly the same position off Baja, before it swings through AZ. which could spark some showers if it can tap into any lingering moisture  from this weekends event. 


Tropical E. Pac. off Mexico may have one ..maybe two.. potential systems in the pipeline after Alvin fades away too.. And it's only June..

Unlike a majority of Junes in the Desert,   June ...and start of Meteorological Summer 2025... may be about to get off to a very interesting start..
 

[UK_Palms]

26.2C / 79F at 2pm here. Expecting a solid 27C / 80F later this afternoon. The same again tomorrow, possibly reaching 28C / 82F.

Typically the temperatures are dropping off next week, as soon as we enter meteorological summer! 🤣

 

Middle Wallop in Hampshire has 33 hours left to rack up another 21.2mm of rainfall in order to prevent that Met station having its driest spring on record. No rainfall is expected. That station will finish spring on 30mm / 1.1 inches.

 

London Heathrow has 33 hours left to rack up another 1.7mm of rainfall to avoid the driest spring on record at that site (data goes back to 1949 at Heathrow). Again, no more rainfall is expected.

 

33 hours left for RAF Brize Norton to rack up 10.4mm of rainfall to avoid the driest spring on record there (data goes back to 1968). There won’t be any rain there either obviously.

 

There are some stations in northern England and Scotland that will break their spring records by close to 100mm.

[Silas_Sancona]

Stuck in a dry slot between the two players in this weekend's weather today = afternoon highs edging up a few degs over yesterday.. 102F at 5:23PM as clouds start edging their way back into the area from the east and south.. 



More clouds + increasing humidity / Dew Points / Pwats  should shave off -at least- 2 -4 degrees tomorrow. Clouds end up thicker thru the entire day? ..maybe we don't reach the upper 90s. 

Main event still on tap for Sunday as Alvin dies while passing just to the east of Cabo San Lucas, and all that moisture associated w/ the circulation heads right up the Gulf and into AZ / N.M.

Before that, virga / isolated light showers may wander through the low deserts tomorrow.  Fire start threat for any Dry, high - based storms that pop up over the mountains of E. and S.E. AZ as moisture makes a bigger push west from N.M and N.E. Mexico as well. 

While the numbers will continue to waver a bit over the next 24-36 hours, still looking like we could smash the before - mentioned  June records by the time the majority of rainfall ahead moves out on Monday.

..We'll see if the Upper Level Low expected to work it's way down the west coast to S. Cal. by late Monday can extend shower / storm chances another day.. 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

A very monsoon-y 87F at 8:53AM with the scent of wet Creosote and raised humidity in the air as some showers and iso. weak storms roam the desert to our south..

Main event on it's way for the rest of the day / tonight / and tomorrow ..part of Monday / in the high country east of the valley at least..

Small disturbance rotating into the area atm from the gulf ( not picked up by the models all that well either ) may limit afternoon / evening Thunderstorm potential locally..  S.E. CA and Yuma may see some feisty storms today though.. 

While there is still a little wiggle room in potential rainfall totals,  ..Always the case with Upper Level Low driven storm events,  majority of the models seem to be settling on a range between 0.25" - 0.50" locally..

Continuing it's bullish / very generous streak,  morning ECMWF runs painting a stripe of 0.45" - 0.75"+ across the valley for this event..  Not impossible under this set up, but,  ...Morning 06Z EPS painting a similar stripe of potential rainfall totals across Cen. AZ also.

00Z ECMWF from Pivotal ( Not paying to access this mornings 06Z run ):




06Z ECMWF via Tidbits:



While possibly too optimistic, both Wx models have remained reasonably consistent in their thoughts compared to the GFS / EC-AIFS since Friday.      We'll see who nails it.. 

Of note, current RR / HRRR /  06Z GFS runs from the more locally focused Wx models used by the UofA ( AZ WRF website ) are quite wet as well. 

Regardless, even a modest 0.15" - 0.30" of rain  totals spread across the area is definitely not what you expect for the start of June ..and Meteorological Summer, in the Desert.. 


Enjoy it  ..and the not so hot start to the week ahead...  because our typical June nuke fest may arrive by next weekend..

More on that / other stuff later..

[Silas_Sancona]

On June 1st, it is currently:   ( As of 7:20PM )  67F  ..with a Dew Point at 67 / Humidity at 95%.. 

After a few small -but bolty- storms, .and a little dust,  ...it has been raining steadily for about 4 hours.. 

Not sure where we're at total-wise but, soaked to the core, water running down the street / off the roof as a steady clip = not a sprinkle..

More on the way too. 

Phoenix?.....




Pretty wild..

[Silas_Sancona]

A warm and soupy 80F at 10:42PM.. 

Even 24 hours after record rainfall has ended, current Dew Point is still above 60deg ( 61 atm ) and may stay above 40 until Friday..  Here, 40+ deg. dew point readings = moist. Humidity is still above 50% as well.. 

Now that most of the rain has ended ( High country being the exception )  a look at rainfall across the Valley and around Tucson / S.E. AZ.

Even though i may have enjoyed getting in on the big totals seen in neighborhoods on the northwest side of the valley, the .24"+ recorded locally is ..crazy.. for the start of June  ..So no complaints here.  


Maricopa Co. Flood Control data:







Rainlog.org data.. 

















Soupy-ness aside, reasonable heat will stick around as the upper level low that rolled through town this morning lingers over the 4 corners, and another add on system rolls down the CA coast before heading east over the next few days. 

Depending on if it can tap any good pools of lingering moisture, there is at least a slight opportunity for a few more showers -in the valley- over the next couple days ..before everything completely dries out ...and temps rise back to the more typical 104 -108F range by next weekend / start of next week. 


Looking a little further out, 


GFS is at it again tonight suggesting big heat is also right around the corner..  arriving within the traditional, mid - June time frame.

Tough to believe since similar thoughts spat out by the GFS at times so far this year have ended up in the trash within 24 hours of appearing but, it's June and is getting pretty hard to hold off the inevitable nuke fest we usually see before Monsoon Season arrives..   

594mb 1000-500mb thickness ( dam ) readings, and 597 500mb height and anomaly = Nuke fest heat..






...Have said it numerous times..  Want the rain?  ...We gotta roast, first.. 

Both may lie just beyond the week ahead.. 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

A warm ..but reasonable 94F at 4:53PM with some soup in the air (  Dew Point currently 54deg. )

Scattered storms up north, locally,  S. Cal getting hammered ( with rain / storms ) ..that look like they'll be building their way south toward San Diego soon..  Hope everyone gets a little somethin' 








Slim but ..there's a chance..  a little of this action swings back through the valley late tonight / right around Sunrise tomorrow as this latest upper level low passes east through the region..  If it does, won't add up to much, but, ...will be a nice Hump Day wake up call before things dry out for the rest of the week.
 

[PAPalmtrees]

Great temperature and great Song on LOL. Currently 90° here in Pennsylvania I'm loving the weather

[Foxpalms]

Min of 20c/68f with a high of 26.6c/80f with sith 60% humidity. The UV index was a 12. 

Currently 22c with 74% humidity at 2am.

[Silas_Sancona]

A hot ..but not terrible 100-104F around the hood at 1:47PM.. 

After what turned out to be one of the strangest start to June in ..recent memory..   Hotter days lie as we start the 2nd week of the month.. 

When all was said and done, ....inc. the " surprise " outbreak of legit, mid August - like Thunderstorms at 1am Wednesday, ...After most of S. Cal. experienced storms earlier on Monday,  Phoenix is now ranked 7th wettest June on record

...and that comes -before -  the official June 15th start of Monsoon Season when we could add more to that monthly total before July 1st.. 

Of course, the June 1st ( and 4th ) " surprise "  won't count under the " Monsoon season " rainfall totals..



Wed. Morning totals.. 











Sunday + Wednesday Totals:  ..Realllyy impressive #'s  anywhere  in the valley for early June..

I dare anyone to find another. 













A still captured via COD True Color Sat. when the " Thunderstorm Swarm " broke out over the valley as some energy from both S. Cal,  and the storm cluster pounding N.W. AZ late Tuesday night made it's way to the Valley.. 

And.... Of course silly,  ..Of course i was up to capture as much of it as i could..  First lightning shots of 2025?  ....in EARLY  June?..   uh, ** yeah.. 








Heating up over the weekend ..Maybe our first 110F reading by Monday ..Then kindv sitting in the mid / upper 100s thru the rest of next week   ...Unless......






While i'm still not quite sold yet, GFS  ..and some of the Wx models.. are starting to latch onto the idea of a BIG step up heat -wise as we get just beyond the 15th.. 

At times, GFS has been spitting out some petty eye -popping numbers ( IE: 121F here / 126F in El Centro. a few days ago)

While that level of Nuke heat  is unlikely, even the more likely 116-119F temp range we might see would be pretty Haaughtt  ...esp. since the heat has stayed fairly restrained thus far.. 

How long do we sit directly under the furnace this year before relief comes???  ..Maybe not long at all.. 

More on that, and more, ...soon..

 

[OutpostPalms]

2pm Mississippi coast. 94F. After over 8” of rain in May it has yet to rain in June. The Saharan dust apparently keeping the rains away. 

[UK_Palms]

A pathetic 18C / 64F at 2pm here today. But the blowtorch might be coming out later next week.

Could this finally be the June that reaches 37C / 100F...? 🤔 I am expecting at least low 30's C next weekend now...

 

One to watch... 👀

[amh]

93F with a heat index of 106F at 1:30PM.

[Silas_Sancona]

106F at 1:49PM ..headed for our first < official > 110 in a couple hours??  .If not this afternoon, then by the weekend.

Potential for our typical, pre-monsoon season kick off  nuke fest still there as we head toward the 20th, though still some waffling on just how toasty things could get.. 

Regardless, take it easy out there, stay hydrated,  ....And stay off the trails during the day!!!!  Today alone = 4 people rescued off one of our summer trouble spots as of 11AM.. 


At the same time?

Now up to 3 tropical systems in the E. Pac. for the 2025 season,  ...w/ potential for storm #4  forming out there in a day or two.

..And it's only June 9th..   Interesting.. 🤔

[UK_Palms]

Max of 27C / 80F here today.

Models are roasting hot tonight... seeing 40C / 104F on the GFS for later this month for London... nuts.

 

Never seen 42C / 108F on a model for the UK in June before either. That's ridiculous. Saw it earlier this afternoon. The first 40C wasn't even modelled on a chart for us until 2022 and that was on the last day of June, for mid-July. Now we have multiple runs and charts showing 40C in 2nd week of June, for late June...

42C / 108F in this case...

 

Another member has it at 37C / 100F at midnight on one of the nights and doesn't go below 31C / 88F in London that night. Uncharted territory here in terms of model output... kind of bizarre tbh. Canadian model has shown it as well. The temperatures themselves aren't even the extreme part, it's just how early it is showing up for us here. If we were in early-mid July right now it wouldn't be so crazy.

These are the temperatures for midnight on this 18z GEFS run tonight... 100F...

 

In mean time, need to enjoy the weather and garden...

[Foxpalms]

Min of 18c/64.4f with a high of 29.2c/84.4f with 44% humidity. The dew point was fairly high yesterday peaking at 17c around 7pm. The UV was a 9.  Decent weather for the next 7 days with the week after showing temperatures potentially reaching low- mid 30s a few days.

[UK_Palms]

11 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

Min of 18c/64.4f with a high of 29.2c/84.4f with 44% humidity. The dew point was fairly high yesterday peaking at 17c around 7pm. The UV was a 9.  Decent weather for the next 7 days with the week after showing temperatures potentially reaching low- mid 30s a few days.

The Euro (ECMWF) looks very hot tonight… you can usually add 2-3C on top of the predicted maxes in summer (it understated the max by 3C today)…

[Foxpalms]

Yesterday: Min of 18.1c/64.6f with a high of 25.3c/77.5f. UV was a 9.

Today: Min of 14c/57.2f with a high of 24.5c/76.1f with 37% humidity. The UV was a 9. 

Met office forecast looks decent but probably understating temps.

@UK_Palms 36c is now being forecasted on at least 10 plus forecast websites so far that I have seen. And with even hotter 22c 850hpa temps only 80 miles to the south if that shifts slightly further north it could be closer to 40c.

 

 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

June 15th = Feel the heat... No way around " hot " in mid June.. 

113F downtown, w/ plenty o' 110-teens on the board around town... Our first 120 / 120+F " neighborhood " readings on the board for the year too ...YaY ...


















No escaping it down in Tucson either. Temps. near identical to here in the E. Valley / Valley - wide too..

Stayin hot through most of the week ahead.. Pac. N.W. may attempt to spoil our fun again by tossing a late season trough through the west late next weekend, maybe backing temps down to the low 100's ...for a day or two..  Hoping it gets kicked further and further north by the time it's passage is forecast so we can get the 4 corners high anchored and building in, .. which it is trying to do now. 



Being June 15th, today marks the " un " -official start of Monsoon Season 2025  ( UN- official because any rain /  3 days with a Dew Point higher than 55 deg. is likely still at least a week from occurring )..More on that later..  Anyway, ..


A look at the afternoon picture from space reveals the season's first attempt of some moisture trying to trickle into the far East / S.Eastern corner of the state,  yet another tropical system headed out into the Pacific off S. Baja,  ..and lots of moisture spread across Mexico, w/ a nice east to west mid level flow of moisture across the northern and central half of the continent.. 



Southern Mexico = rainy season well underway down there..



So, now  that we're there,  When we might start seeing ....something???... 

Depending on the WX model,  moisture might start edging north out of Mexico into AZ by the 23rd / 24th,   or hold off a few days longer.. Regardless, is that time of the year / month to start keeping an eye out for moisture influxes. 

Moisture is out there,  lurking just to our south and south east for sure, but, gotta shut down the Pacific Northwest's Monsoon buzz killing weather pattern of late. ( = repeated, late season troughs passing  just south enough through the interior west that keep the 4 corners high from dropping anchor / building north more )

For now at least,  ..most of the signs are there in the longer range weather thoughts that we shouldn't have to wait too much longer before we get the season under way.. 

Mesquites are dropping pods,  Expecting i'll start hearing the first Citrus / Apache Cicadas of the year over the coming week.. so....


For the moment, as mentioned in this seasonally fitting, 80s flashback .. " Feel the heat..  Burnin' you up,  ready or not.. "

 

Unless hellbent on adding more proof to Darwin's theory...  Stay cool, in the shade, and well hydrated.. Better yet, avoid doing much until after the sun goes down.     ...and stay OFF the trails!!!     Most are closed atm anyway 

[UK_Palms]

25.9C / 77F at 1pm here.

GFS was showing 38C / 100F for London last night with 39C / 102F on the hi-res grid.

Models have toned down a bit overall now, but Euro (ECM) still looking very warm.

 

Heat aside, I would be shocked if a hosepipe ban and drought declaration isn’t announced for London and my area in the coming weeks. There is basically no rainfall showing in the southeast out to 3rd July, following the driest spring on record too…