What is your current yard temperature?

[Foxpalms]

Low of 44f/6.6c under clear extremely calm skies last with a high of 73f/22.7c with 13% humidity. This in the second day in a row the humidity has been under 20%, desert like weather. I’m having to flood the garden with water in the morning and evening to keep certain plants growing/staying alive. UV was a 6.  The temp hasn’t dropped as fast tonight and it’s currently 56g/13.3c at 1.20am. Next week the day temps look pretty good high 60s low 70s and the nights start to warm up to the low 50s consistently. The average high for April so far has been 17.1c here and will continue to climb.

[UK_Palms]

Nice peaceful night.

2 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

Low of 44f/6.6c under clear extremely calm skies last with a high of 73f/22.7c with 13% humidity. This in the second day in a row the humidity has been under 20%, desert like weather. I’m having to flood the garden with water in the morning and evening to keep certain plants growing/staying alive. UV was a 6.  The temp hasn’t dropped as fast tonight and it’s currently 56g/13.3c at 1.20am. Next week the day temps look pretty good high 60s low 70s and the nights start to warm up to the low 50s consistently. The average high for April so far has been 17.1c here and will continue to climb.

Chilly 5.1C here at 3am under clear skies after a max of 23.1C. Humidity down to 10% here earlier.

The state of those fires in Northern Ireland tonight. Absolute infernos.

 

 

[Foxpalms]

Min of 50f/10c with a high of 72.1f/22.3c with 28% humidity. Which slowly rose late this afternoon as the clouds came in. It drizzled for a very short time this evening and that was it for rain! Uv was a 6.5. London Heathrow up to 17.3c as the average high with 4.4mm of rain this month which is slightly higher than here. 
 

[Silas_Sancona]

A nice 78F at 10:58AM on the final Tuesday of April..  Headed for somewhere in the mid / upper 80s later w/ an increase in high clouds edging into local skies thru the afternoon and evening. 


Little warmer tomorrow w/ more clouds around but still pretty reasonable for late April.  

Rest of the week looking ..about the same.. Bump up to the mid / upper 90s possible as we start May, before another system ..that currently looks dry for the valley..   shaves off a few degs again for the start of next week. 

If the system scheduled to pass thru southern AZ tomorrow / Thursday,  or the system forecast after that manages to squeeze out anything wet locally,  it will likely be similar to the random, spit -zy sprinkles that passed through town a couple days ago. 







After a pretty remarkable March that saw wayy more of them than anyone would have thought was possible,  it's pretty remarkable that in April, when you'd expect to start seeing them, we will end the month with NO 100F readings. Yeah, there's two days left in the month but,  ..Ain't gonna touch the century mark on either day.








As May   ...and the final month of Met. Spring...   arrives,  first 5 -8 days could see some deg. of a continuation of April's " up and down " / " subdued heat "  pattern as a few more troughs passing through N. Cal.,  and /or the Great Basin may help keep a lid on a quick resurgence of any big heat here..

While it's just a couple runs,  so far,    some hints are starting to show up in some of the WX Model thinking suggesting that the   .." reasonable " break we've been enjoying after the massive melt down we saw in March,  may be about to flip  ..perhaps as abruptly as it did in March by the time we reach the 10th -12th of next month.. 

Yes, ..while much can < and will likely > change < repeatedly > by that time, just as occurred before March turned sizzling,  when you start seeing hints, you start paying attention   ..Unless you're the kind of human who enjoys always being caught with their shorts down. 

..Anyway..

Scare- cast thought for now, to be tossed in the trash soon?,    ..or ..   ..a hint to eye ball periodically,  to stay ahead of what may lie ahead??  

This morning's 006Z GFS at 378 hours.. 2m temp thoughts..

While mid - 100F readings in May aren't exactly crazy,   after a   ..pretty mild..    April,   abrupt resumption of 105 /105+ heat might catch some folks by surprise / burn some stuff a little. 





500mb anomaly thoughts.. 





12z thoughts from the GFS aren't quite as bullish on building a ridge back over the area  ..keeping some deg of weak troughing lurking around the west, which in turn keeps the heat reasonable here..



That said, both the 12z EC- AIFS and AIFS  ..as well as the 12z runs of both the Ensemble - based GEFS and newly added AIFS -ENS < T- Tidbits > lean in on the idea of building some deg. of ridging / dialing up the heat over AZ and most of the the west after the 10th.. so,    ...We'll see what happens.. 



At the same time?.. Some hints from the GFS over the last few days of the East Pac. off Southern Mexico trying to spin up some sort of disturbance,  right around the start of our Hurricane season ( May 15th ) ..

Depending on which run you look at, it may do nothing, quickly fall apart and head due west,  ..or try to form an actual system and lurk off Mexico for a few days while trying to move north a bit.    Regardless,  any moisture from  ...whatever...  it does,  should it even develop into an actual system at all,    stays well south of AZ over areas of Mexico south of Mazatlan,  and/ or  Puerto Vallarta.. 

A start to    ...what could be a very busy season,  ahead?
 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

Reasonable 90F at 1:07PM as some " summer-y " moisture moves in from the south / southwest..

Compact, and quick moving upper level low that had potential to bring us some end of  " April showers " now looks to stay too far south to bring us anything ..anything meaningful at least.. as it works it's way east across the AZ / N.M. /Mex. border toward El Paso over the next 12 -18 hours.. 

That said,  late - spring upper level lows are notorious for doing unexpected things sometimes so i'm not completely ruling out ..at least a sprinkle or two sometime this evening / over night.. about as far north as a line following the 202 from Chandler to Gold Canyon. 

" Better " rain and storm chances will stay south and east of Casa Grande and Tucson ..Roughly 20 -35% chances respectively..

Best chances will be confined to areas over far S.E.'rn AZ ..Mainly Cochise Co.  where there is an outside threat for isolated flash flooding issues / daily rainfall records to be broken in a few spots if some of the showers /storms down there generate heavier rainfall. 

While we likely won't see much ..if any.. water falling from the sky up here,   storm activity down south could generate a strong enough north / northwest - moving outflow to generate some dust / 35 /35+ mph wind gusts passing through the area. 



As sunrise arrives on the first day of May,  storm will be headed into central TX.,  and we'll be heating up  ..For the weekend at least.. 



Next upper level system anticipated to pass through the area will arrive by Sunday or Monday, knocking back temps. into the 80s again  ...for a few days at least. 


Still watching for signs of a bigger heat wave arriving  around the 8 -10th,  and the E. Pac. west of southern Mex.. 

More later

[JohnAndSancho]

Cold. And I just put away the space heater and my flannel Jammies and shut off the gas to the Carbon Monoxide Machine in the grow room. It's in the low 50s and supposed to get in the 40s the next couple nights. And I'm pretty sure we're out of drought status by now. As I write this we've had 5" of rain this week and it's supposed to stay raining all weekend. ⁹

[SeanK]

8 hours ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Cold. And I just put away the space heater and my flannel Jammies and shut off the gas to the Carbon Monoxide Machine in the grow room. It's in the low 50s and supposed to get in the 40s the next couple nights. And I'm pretty sure we're out of drought status by now. As I write this we've had 5" of rain this week and it's supposed to stay raining all weekend. ⁹

We got our one to 2" of rain up here. Nice change. Looks like rains will remain across the I10 corridor for a few days.

[Silas_Sancona]

Breezy 83F at 9:19AM, headed for the mid -90s later as another batch of high clouds rolling in off the E. Pac. builds into the area thru the day..

Lil toasty,  yet a lil cloudy tomorrow before the next passing system shaves off about 10 -12 deg for the start of next week. ..77 -82F, w/ maybe some clouds around on Cinco De Mayo?   yeah, we'll all take that  

 ..Enjoy it cuz the return of our " typical " May sizzle?  appears to return by next weekend..



Tucson / S. AZ stats aren't out yet but, ..how April stacked up for PHX, Yuma, and El Centro..



Interesting that we continued the above norm streak for the spring season < ..year itself really... > , despite escaping April w/ no 100F readings this year.

Some interesting stats from CA last month as well... 





..And yes,   Last, bigger severe storm set up out there did produce a rare " CA. 'Nader "..First in a couple years. 

Another set up for storms arrives across N.Cal today / tomorrow.. 



Overall April Thunderstorm activity across a lot of CA  was also elevated compared to what is typical.  Influence from the on-going Marine heatwave probably had it's fingers all over this pattern this year. 

W/ El Nino signal SSTs just about ready to explode -at the surface- just off Ecuador,  and the Subtrop / 4 corners ridge to start building in shortly,  anticipate seeing a big jump SSTs off CA by mid June, if not sooner. 





Looking further out?  Taken - with - salt CFS thoughts on how May could look.. 




Not too concerned about any suggested precip anoms here since this is the driest period of the year and it would only take approx.  +0.10" to qualify as " wet " locally..

In fact, the storm that passed thru the far southern 3rd of the state yesterday could account for the " above norm " lean in May's forecast     ....or could something else tip the scales in that direction,   later??

Regardless, some impressive #s for the end of April down in the borderlands from this system..






Bigger thing to eyeball this month is the above / below precip. trend in Mexico ...which,  for now,  is looking to only get wetter as we move deeper into the month.  Tropics may play a significant part in that as well.




As mentioned before, more confirmation that the E. Pac. may be about to awaken, maybe as soon as this time next week.. 

If not then, then right around when the season officially kicks off.. 

Increasing chatter that this could be a big year out here as well. 



We'll see if we end up with a named system before the average occurrence date, which is in early June. 




Since it is May,  Fire Weather concerns can't be ignored ..both locally and regionally..  While there have been a few fires already,  season seems to be getting off to a slower start than i'd had expected considering the factors influencing things this year.

Perhaps that changes once the heat starts building back in after next weekend??

Regardless, will be interesting to see how things play out here this month / into the start of June..  Note the mention regarding thoughts on this year's Monsoon could look.

I'd replace " Robust " ..with " Frisky  ..and Flood -y  " 




May, June, July, Aug. maps..




Full PDF discussion:
https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf






Lastly,   ..for now..     ** Added dashes of salt please..     ....CFS thoughts'  peak at how June could kick off..   

Temps:




Precip:




Increasingly wet signal tilt in Mexico,  Wet signal presence across New Mexico < ..Where the Monsoon usually starts to set up,  first >  =  Liking what i'm seeing        ..Fingers crossed 

[Than]

I'm so gutted I actually came here to vent. It's May and it should be lovely but apparently we're having the coldest May of the last 70 years and rn temperature outside is 38 F! Forecast had predicted 47F and stupidly i believed it.

My Kigelia has just produced some new leaves after winter dormancy and I'm afraid they will be ruined. Same with my hibiscus schizopetalus. Also yesterday I planted 100 vetiver plants in the ground and I'm now worried I lost my money... 

Worse still tonight is expected to be even colder! I can't believe I'll have to use fleece again in May 🤬

[Mazat]

4 hours ago, Than said:

I'm so gutted I actually came here to vent. It's May and it should be lovely but apparently we're having the coldest May of the last 70 years and rn temperature outside is 38 F! Forecast had predicted 47F and stupidly i believed it.

My Kigelia has just produced some new leaves after winter dormancy and I'm afraid they will be ruined. Same with my hibiscus schizopetalus. Also yesterday I planted 100 vetiver plants in the ground and I'm now worried I lost my money... 

Worse still tonight is expected to be even colder! I can't believe I'll have to use fleece again in May 🤬

Oh, dear Than 🤗, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the weather changes soon and returns to normal seasonal temperatures. Which weather station near you gives a good idea of what the weather's like where you are? I'd be really interested to know—and how are you doing otherwise ?

[Than]

3 hours ago, Mazat said:

Oh, dear Than 🤗, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the weather changes soon and returns to normal seasonal temperatures. Which weather station near you gives a good idea of what the weather's like where you are? I'd be really interested to know—and how are you doing otherwise ?

It's Kalamata airport (not the city). I am expecting another 3 C tonight but this time I will bring vetiver and all seedlings indoors and I will cover my Roystonea and hibiscus.. I was out on a ladder at 7am this morning trying to throw a double sheet over my sausage tree but it was too tall and I failed. I must've been a ridiculous spectacle.

All good here but loads of manual work.. new house needs so many amendments; today I planted another 50 vetiver on the slope to stop the landslides in the winter.. next I need to remove a fitted wardrobe from the wall, then install a solar water heater... it just never stops. How are you? How are your plants?