Concern for Leilani Estates as lava moves eastward underground

[Dave-Vero]

"In Florida headed back to Hawaii."  That's an exceedingly long trip.  I recall spending a night at the then-new Denver airport, attempting to sleep under the Big Tent.

The latest wind speed probabilities (these are for 50-knot) are looking reasonably promising. 

 

[sur4z]

more...

https://google.org/crisismap/google.com/2018-lane

 

[WestCoastGal]

Like Cindy woke up thinking hurricane and made this my first stop to see the status. A slow pace and lots of water on mountains can probably be as bad as the winds so really staying hopeful it takes a more westerly approach. BTW the only live 24-hr cam feed on the islands I’m aware of (aside from lavacam) is the one through Honolulu Civil Beat of Honolulu. They’ve had it running for a bit now on YouTube and while placed on eastern side of island, still provides a view people might want to check in on as it approaches Oahu. 

Dean, glad you made it back in time and sure the folks are glad you are back too. Not something you’d want them to ride out alone. Best wishes for all of you and your property. 

[Dave-Vero]

Meanwhile, the intensity forecast for Lane, while inherently not too reliable, is looking favorable.  The big menace may be rain.

Cindy's comment about boarding up and leaving for September due to last year's trauma rings true from Miami for a couple of years after Andrew hit in 1992.  

[Hilo Jason]

Dean - sorry to hear about your cancelled trip but happy you guys made it back to your home safely.  

The rain started here in Hilo at about 10am yesterday and so far we are at 19 inches!  Little to no wind here which has been very nice. 

[Dypsisdean]

Indications this morning are that it appears to me as if things continue to inch away from the Big Island, but remaining a hurricane longer than previously expected. "Inches" are important since the winds are our major concern. Except for a very few areas, rain is nowhere near the danger it is on the mainland. Same with storm surge - but there is a small prime stretch of lower coastal properties in Kailua town that were affected by the recent Tsunami and will probably incur some damage from this event.

A little different story on the other islands, but still much different than the mainland areas usually hit by hurricanes.

The winds are another story. Many trees and the nature of the electrical grid (all above ground, and one major "circuit" around the island) seem to make for long outages over large areas during big events. And houses are still vulnerable. Along with the very high mountain terrain and some huge trees, winds are unpredictable and can be damaging - and our major concern.

So that is why any indication the eye and terrifying winds are "inching" away from us is very welcome news. But this storm so far has humbled some forecasters.

[Dypsisdean]

8 hours ago, Cindy Adair said:

Dean, so glad you were able to get back safely despite the big cost and stress involved and the disappointment at missing your vacation.

 I would rather be here in Puerto Rico during hurricane season to safeguard what I can unless evacuation is recommended of course. 

There are some retirees here who are already boarding up their homes and planning to spend the entire month of September in the States because they were traumatized by Maria's visit last year.

I must admit that I awakened extra early this morning thinking about hurricanes (with a picture in my brain of my first look at dawn after Maria here) and heading to the computer for an update about Lane.

Many of us will be watching for changes in the forecast and thinking of you all!

 

 

Cindy - your recent experiences gave me a renewed level of concern for the effects of major hurricanes in island situations. When the cone of the just upgraded to Cat 5 moved to include my area, I decided to err on the side of caution - knowing I would never be so happy as to hear I over reacted for years to come. And knowing I only had a small window to actually make it back here at all - flights and timing were a real trick.

And yes, feeling so much better to actually be here and "in control." I wasn't having the relaxing vacation I wanted while watching the always hyped up news hyping up a situation that doesn't need any hyping up.

[Moose]

36 minutes ago, Dypsisdean said:

Cindy - your recent experiences gave me a renewed level of concern for the effects of major hurricanes in island situations. When the cone of the just upgraded to Cat 5 moved to include my area, I decided to err on the side of caution - knowing I would never be so happy as to hear I over reacted for years to come. And knowing I only had a small window to actually make it back here at all - flights and timing were a real trick.

And yes, feeling so much better to actually be here and "in control." I wasn't having the relaxing vacation I wanted while watching the always hyped up news hyping up a situation that doesn't need any hyping up.

The illusion of control.  Being away and not knowing is the big bug-a-boo.

[Moose]

Scott reporting from Leilani Estates ...

 

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

Fissure 10 two days ago with Gabe

 

[Moose]

Civil Beat live in Honolulu ...

 

[Moose]

 

[Dypsisdean]

What I did not realize previously that is unique to Hawaii and hurricanes is that because of this track, all the hurricane hunting planes (along with many other planes) have now been moved. Having a plane on the ground in a hurricane is not desirable.

Unlike the mainland, there are no safe airports close enough to keep them and still fly to monitor the storm. My understanding is there are now no planes in the area that can probe the storm and gather valuable data - so more uncertainty added to already uncertain forecasts.

 

[WestCoastGal]

These are from fb Hawaii Tracker group Hilo area posts. Not surprising to see but I'm sure roadways and bridges could end up compromised. Not sure all the videos will be shareable to non-fb people depending on the orginator's privacy settings but provided the links all the same. If not look for them directly on Hawaii Tracker group ( https://www.facebook.com/groups/hawaiitracker/ ) 

(https://www.facebook.com/chad.wasserman.7/videos/10216617268927023/ )  

 

( https://www.facebook.com/jaustrino/videos/10213003333099127/UzpfSTM1NzQ1NTU1NDQyMDI2OToxMDc2MDg5OTI1ODkwMTU4/ )

With all that water heading to coast in Hilo wonder about all the cars parked at ground level at the hotels around Banyon Drive. I can see this Hurricane taking a huge toll on Hawaii's budget and infrastructure, like they needed it after Kilauea. Property owners and Insurance companies too. Understand Kauai still suffering from the last flood. With the loss of revenue and expenditures for the lava already I think Hawaii will be looking to put something in the works quickly to try to bring in tourism dollars. Bigger question for long term planning is this was a quarter century hurricane to hit Hawaii from what I think I read. With the changes in weather happening worldwide will Hawaii see more of these type hurricanes than in the past?

 

[Moose]

33 minutes ago, Dypsisdean said:

What I did not realize previously that is unique to Hawaii and hurricanes is that because of this track, all the hurricane hunting planes (along with many other planes) have now been moved. Having a plane on the ground in a hurricane is not desirable.

Unlike the mainland, there are no safe airports close enough to keep them and still fly to monitor the storm. My understanding is there are now no planes in the area that can probe the storm and gather valuable data - so more uncertainty added to already uncertain forecasts.

 

Isn't there a landing strip at Midway Atoll? By the way, your Hurricane Hunter crew is from Miami

[Moose]

40 minutes ago, Dypsisdean said:

What I did not realize previously that is unique to Hawaii and hurricanes is that because of this track, all the hurricane hunting planes (along with many other planes) have now been moved. Having a plane on the ground in a hurricane is not desirable.

Unlike the mainland, there are no safe airports close enough to keep them and still fly to monitor the storm. My understanding is there are now no planes in the area that can probe the storm and gather valuable data - so more uncertainty added to already uncertain forecasts.

 

Perhaps Bo can give an insight? He would know the range of the plane and available landing strips. May be a refueling issue

Edited August 23, 2018 by Moose

[Moose]

45 minutes ago, WestCoastGal said:

These are from fb Hawaii Tracker group Hilo area posts. Not surprising to see but I'm sure roadways and bridges could end up compromised. Not sure all the videos will be shareable to non-fb people depending on the orginator's privacy settings but provided the links all the same. If not look for them directly on Hawaii Tracker group ( https://www.facebook.com/groups/hawaiitracker/ ) 

(https://www.facebook.com/chad.wasserman.7/videos/10216617268927023/ )  

 

( https://www.facebook.com/jaustrino/videos/10213003333099127/UzpfSTM1NzQ1NTU1NDQyMDI2OToxMDc2MDg5OTI1ODkwMTU4/ )

With all that water heading to coast in Hilo wonder about all the cars parked at ground level at the hotels around Banyon Drive. I can see this Hurricane taking a huge toll on Hawaii's budget and infrastructure, like they needed it after Kilauea. Property owners and Insurance companies too. Understand Kauai still suffering from the last flood. With the loss of revenue and expenditures for the lava already I think Hawaii will be looking to put something in the works quickly to try to bring in tourism dollars. Bigger question for long term planning is this was a quarter century hurricane to hit Hawaii from what I think I read. With the changes in weather happening worldwide will Hawaii see more of these type hurricanes than in the past?

 

The facebook links are working fine Debbie.

Thank you

[Dypsisdean]

16 minutes ago, Moose said:

Isn't there a landing strip at Midway Atoll? By the way, your Hurricane Hunter crew is from Miami

Yes - I looked it up - it is 1000 miles away. But, I don't know the safe range of those "hurricane planes," or the logistics of the proper support/maintenance for that type plane and/or crew, or alternate landing options (zero) in event of emergency, etc.

Edit (after our crossed responses): brilliant minds think alike.

[Dypsisdean]

11 minutes ago, Moose said:

Perhaps Bo can give an insight? He would know the range of the plane and available landing strips. May be a refueling issue

Ah yes - I have no doubt our resident aviation expert can fill us in on this. I would be interested to know the specifics.

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

Scott goes to Rainbow Falls ...

 

[Moose]

Looks like washed out roads in Hilo ...

 

[bgl]

15 minutes ago, Dypsisdean said:

Ah yes - I have no doubt our resident aviation expert can fill us in on this. I would be interested to know the specifics.

NOAA is using two highly modified Lockheed P-3 Orions and the Air Force is using a bunch of highly modified Lockheed C-130 Hercules. They may have added fuel tanks and just making an educated guess I'd say they (both types) can probably stay in the air for an extended time - easily more than ten hours and probably quite a bit more than that giving them a likely range of around 4,000 nautical miles, give or take a few. The airfield at Midway has a paved 7,800 ft long runway and can easily handle these planes.

[Moose]

Gabe reporting from Leilani Estates ...

 

[Moose]

Hurricane reporting from Debbie's area.

Just like Florida, when the surf is up

 

 

[Dr. George]

In the air now heading to Kona - about 3 hours out - when we took off the pilot reported they were anticipating rain and winds in the 10 - 20 mph range at the time of arrival.

Here are the most recent NOAA prediction maps (11 AM HST):

 

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

Scott takes an early morning trip to Hilo.

Encounters heavy rains, closed roads and flooding ...

 

[Moose]

 

[Dr. George]

Landing in Kona in about 40 minutes. Pilot announced current wind speeds of about 6 mph. - gmp

[Dave-Vero]

Welcome back to high, dry Kona Airport.  

I stayed at the cheapest or second-cheapest hotel on Hilo's lovely but low-lying Banyan Drive.  The building was decently raised  so shouldn't flood.  The parking lot, not so much.

 

 

[The Silent Seed]

Dave,

Just out of curiosity - what is considered cheap for there? 

[Dave-Vero]

Reeds Bay hotel was $102/night for a more or less deluxe room.  

[Moose]

We focus so much on the wind speed of Hurricanes. Truth is a wet hurricane causes more damage from water than the wind.

Flooding kills more people than wind usually. And the aftermath with a lack of infrastructure continues to claim more lives.

 

[Moose]

Scott went live from Leilani Estates 8 hours ago ...

 

[Moose]

Hurricane update from Charles ...

 

Edited August 24, 2018 by Moose