Future USDA Map

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

Unfortunately my computer crashed last year and it looks like I have lost a few things.  I had a USDA map of 2012 and a (NOAA I think) simulation of what the map was predicted to look like in 2035 or 2040.  I scoured the internet tonight trying to find it but I came up empty.  Does anyone happen to have this map or a link to where it is found?  Thanks

[SailorBold]

Havent heard of it..  but it would be nice if ABQ became a solid 8b lol

[Ed in Houston]

Here is a link to the 2012 climate zone maps.

http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/

And here is the projected climate change for the 2011-2040 period.

 

 

Ed in Houston

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

That's the one.  Thanks ED!

[enigma99]

My USDA temp is 28.5F. If I can get 1.5F more in the next 30 years, I will be zone 10 :)

[_Keith]

Keith's climate map

• The plant has been available in your area for a few years and tried by others.   Drive around, see any?  If yes, in your zone.  If no, go ahead and kill one, just don't invest much,
• The plant has not been available in your area for a few years and has not been tried by others?  Drive around, don't see any.  If no, go ahead and be the first to kill one, just don't invest much.
• You rarely see the plant, but when you do it is healthy.   It will cost a lot, but get one. Your kids don't really need to go to college anyway,
• You see the plant growing healthily at every other home.   In your zone, buy the biggest one you can afford.

[RedRabbit]

On 3/12/2016, 8:02:00, Ed in Houston said:

Here is a link to the 2012 climate zone maps.

http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/

And here is the projected climate change for the 2011-2040 period.

 

 

Ed in Houston

Thanks a lot for sharing, I hope this pans out. Right now I've got to drive 15 minutes to make it to zone 10, but if things go accordingly instead of me going to zone 10, zone 10 will be coming to me.  Granted in 25yrs I'll likely be long gone anyway, but if I happen to still be here I'm totally getting a coconut palm and a satakentia.

A few things really stood out to me in that map. 

1. Houston goes to zone 10. It seems a little funny seeing Houston at zone 10 when I recall seeing it snow there on the news several times in the past decade. 
2. Macon, GA and Dallas, TX move to zone 9. I'd never think of either even being close to zone 9.
3. I don't see any changes to S. Florida, but if things play out the way Ed's map suggests it would seem like a large portion of S. Florida would have to move to zone 11 and the Keys + Miami Beach might go to zone 12... On second thought, maybe they'll be underwater at that point in time.  
4. It is kind of interesting to see a slither of N. Carolina make it into zone 9. 
5. New York City moves to zone 8? 

 

Edited March 13, 2016 by RedRabbit

[Matthew92]

Well, unlike places like Orlando who have been consistently performing above their historically listed zone, it sure doesn't feel like we're heading toward a solid zone 9 on the upper Gulf Coast with 3 winters of upper teens in 2010, 2014, and 2015....

[RedRabbit]

2 hours ago, Opal92 said:

Well, unlike places like Orlando who have been consistently performing above their historically listed zone, it sure doesn't feel like we're heading toward a solid zone 9 on the upper Gulf Coast with 3 winters of upper teens in 2010, 2014, and 2015....

How cold did it get there this year?

[Silas_Sancona]

No matter what changes occur, there will always those rouge winters which buck any fore-going trend.

What i find interesting, besides other points made here regarding various parts of the country "stepping up" climatically under warmer conditions, is seeing places like El Paso actually shift toward a low end 9a, perhaps flirting with 9b during the mildest future winters. While we often think about what plants we may be able to include in our landscapes, there will be all sorts of animals that will take advantage of warmer winters. I wouldn't doubt that the southern tier of the country will become a east-west highway for various species expanding their ranges. Add to this, many other animals which surely will expand their ranges north out of Mexico. South Texas and S.E. Arizona are already Meccas for spectacular species of Hummingbirds and other rare species that often hang out just north of the border. Some of these species have recently been spotted further north.   Interesting times ahead indeed. Here in Phoenix, any shift upward will mean better chances that coconuts will grace our skies.. and that you will see more Royal poinciana and other "marginal" stuff on a more common basis.

[Silas_Sancona]

I forgot to add that there was a time, recently, that these two species of plants were believed to be "too tender" for the area.. Lookin good to me..

Acacia willardiana and Guaiacum coulteri:

[Matthew92]

2 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

How cold did it get there this year?

9a/9b at 25 degrees

[RedRabbit]

3 minutes ago, Opal92 said:

9a/9b at 25 degrees

It gets pretty cold up there! Glad you at least had a 9b winter this year. 

[Xenon]

Well Houston (Hobby Airport) averages ~29F for the 1990-2016 period so I guess its not that much of a stretch...And interestingly, the snowfalls this decade have been associated with (relatively) light freezes in the high 20s F.  The urban heat island influence will also continue to grow. The zone 10 projection in Texas does look very generous though, especially all the inland areas and the large patch west of Houston. 

Dallas is already zone 8a/b with pockets of 8b...Washingtonia hybrids seem to do well there. And again, urban heat island...Zone 9 almost creeps into Arkansas 

Isn't NYC already zone 7b? 

I'm surprised there's no zone 10 in southern Lousiana...and all of that zone 10 in Nevada (Las Vegas area) seems suspect. 

 

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

I can easily see downtown Houston down to Galveston going to 10a without changing too much.

There are plenty of 8b areas in the D/FW metroplex now with the expanding heat island and the 6.8 million people in the area. The areas projected 9.1 million population by 2030 just might put several pockets in the area into 9A.  We were high 9b this winter in many places and no lower than 9a in the entire area this year, which has to be one of, if not the most mild winters on record.

We can always hope and dream I suppose. ...

[palmsOrl]

I can see areas of SE Louisiana near the coast becoming zone 10.  That wouldn't be much of a stretch compared to these area's current zones.

I agree with the FL Keys shifting to zone 12 and the Miami/Ft Lauderdale area near the coast becoming zone 11 (I believe the adjacent barrier islands already are.

It also would not surprise me if the urban core of NYC becomes a technical zone 8a (average annual minima 10-15F), though with winter temperatures averages far below what is expected in a typical zone 8.  DC is already bordering on zone 8, so the metro area should become a solid zone 8 if trends continue.

As for my area, I expect it to become an obvious (landscapes in the area will look comparable to those in Fort Myers), solid zone 10a between potential climate change and continued urban suburban development/sprawl.  Heck, downtown has a real tough time even getting below mid-30s the last 5 years or so.

[Alicehunter2000]

On 3/12/2016, 9:18:08, _Keith said:

Keith's climate map

• The plant has been available in your area for a few years and tried by others.   Drive around, see any?  If yes, in your zone.  If no, go ahead and kill one, just don't invest much,
• The plant has not been available in your area for a few years and has not been tried by others?  Drive around, don't see any.  If no, go ahead and be the first to kill one, just don't invest much.
• You rarely see the plant, but when you do it is healthy.   It will cost a lot, but get one. Your kids don't really need to go to college anyway,
• You see the plant growing healthily at every other home.   In your zone, buy the biggest one you can afford.

LOL

[RedRabbit]

18 hours ago, Xenon said:

Well Houston (Hobby Airport) averages ~29F for the 1990-2016 period so I guess its not that much of a stretch...And interestingly, the snowfalls this decade have been associated with (relatively) light freezes in the high 20s F.  

I was thinking about this some last night and it occurred to me it snows at 32f so technically it could snow every year in Zone 10... Strange to think about for sure.

[RedRabbit]

6 hours ago, palmsOrl said:

As for my area, I expect it to become an obvious (landscapes in the area will look comparable to those in Fort Myers), solid zone 10a between potential climate change and continued urban suburban development/sprawl.  Heck, downtown has a real tough time even getting below mid-30s the last 5 years or so.

I hope you're right! The Arbor Day map, reliable or not, already shows portions of Central Florida in zone 10.

It also puts me in zone 10 which seems optimistic at best. 

 

[nitsua0895]

I noticed that according to that map there won't be much of a change in Montgomery. Is it possible that we could change to a solid zone 9a? I've read that we are actually considered zone 8a but that makes no sense to me. The absolute coldest minimum temp I can remember was 13F. And this past year we had a borderline zone 9b winter. 

So to average zone 8a it would seem we'd have to experience 6b-7b winters more often. Maybe two or three times a century.

[Las Palmas Norte]

Looks like the Puget Sound and the Willamette Valley move to a solid zone 9. In a number of locations they already are an 8b/9a so the shift isn't a big one.

Cheers, Barrie.

[palmsOrl]

15 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

I hope you're right! The Arbor Day map, reliable or not, already shows portions of Central Florida in zone 10.

It also puts me in zone 10 which seems optimistic at best. 

 

I actually think this Arbor Day map gives the best approximation of the extent of zone 10 in Central FL, based on data from the past 30 years.  I don't have adequate data (maybe I just need to look harder) to determine whether zone 10 should be contiguous from the coast into Orlando, or if there should be a zone 10 circle around the Orlando metro area.

[RedRabbit]

9 hours ago, palmsOrl said:

I actually think this Arbor Day map gives the best approximation of the extent of zone 10 in Central FL, based on data from the past 30 years.  I don't have adequate data (maybe I just need to look harder) to determine whether zone 10 should be contiguous from the coast into Orlando, or if there should be a zone 10 circle around the Orlando metro area.

I think a zone 10 circle from downtown going south and east a few miles would be correct. Also, that map seems pretty optimistic on parts of interior south Florida. I want to say it is only based off the past 15yrs so it could be right.

[Funkthulhu]

I don't quite understand the logic behind bumping up the zones.  

Granted, the "average" winter temperature is going up all across the globe, but that's not was the zone is about.  The Zones (by my understanding) represents the lowest temperature you can expect to see over the winter months.  It doesn't matter if most of the month of January is above 40 degrees if the first week of February the polar vortex rolls in with the low teens.  

I don't want to make this into a global warming thread, but additional energy in the atmosphere does two things.  First, it raises the annual average temperature around the globe and some regions may see sharp rises (or falls) in temp in various seasons.  Second, it adds a certain instability to the atmosphere.  More energy means more powerful weather systems and the instability of those weather systems is going to allow something like the polar vortex to penetrate further south than is has previously, and do so most years.  By this reasoning, I would think that the zones would drop not rise.  

Like I said, it doesn't matter if your winter is 10 degrees above the average 20 years ago, if you also get a week of record lows that kill everything.

anyway, my $0.02

[Dave-Vero]

Puget Sound is a very different Zone 9 to Florida.  Lots of cool, wet weather.  

As Eric from Orlando has pointed out many times, the growing city is a big heat island, offering a bit of protection from the masses of arctic air that periodically sweep the state.  Of course that also means more nasty summer heat.

[Ed in Houston]

On 3/14/2016, 1:19:33, Xenon said:

Well Houston (Hobby Airport) averages ~29F for the 1990-2016 period so I guess its not that much of a stretch...And interestingly, the snowfalls this decade have been associated with (relatively) light freezes in the high 20s F.  The urban heat island influence will also continue to grow. The zone 10 projection in Texas does look very generous though, especially all the inland areas and the large patch west of Houston. 

Dallas is already zone 8a/b with pockets of 8b...Washingtonia hybrids seem to do well there. And again, urban heat island...Zone 9 almost creeps into Arkansas 

Isn't NYC already zone 7b? 

I'm surprised there's no zone 10 in southern Lousiana...and all of that zone 10 in Nevada (Las Vegas area) seems suspect. 

 

The future zone map is only a guess of what the zones might look like if current trends continue, and I have my doubts about that. The lack of zone 10 in S. Louisiana is an obvious error relative to the other guesses. New Orleans is already about zone 10 and so is much of Plaquemines parrish. If the future zone map was consistent, I believe it would show S. Louisiana as zone 10 from Plaquemines to the S. shore of lake Pontchartrain and along the coast.

Ed in Houston

 

 

 

 

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

If those changes occur, it would put all of Corpus Christi in a solid Zone 10A Climate, with all of us near the water in a solid Zone 10B Climate.  The Rio Grande Valley would end up being a solid Zone 10B, with Zone 11A along the coast at Port Isabel and South Padre Island..  If this happens, there will be thousands of fruiting coconut palms all along the South Texas Coast and throughout the RGV, including many fruiting Malayan Dwarfs!

[Jimbean]

You guys are nuts!

[Steve the palmreader]

After the severe freezes of the 1980s Zones were predicted to lowered ,So don't get too excited.

[Jimbean]

3 hours ago, Steve the palmreader said:

After the severe freezes of the 1980s Zones were predicted to lowered ,So don't get too excited.

yep, that's what I was thinking.

[palmsOrl]

Whether climate change is real and an ongoing phenomenon, I will not even try to comment or conjecture.  One change that is very real is the warming of urban areas and progressive warming in urban areas (in most climate types, urban areas add heat, while in a few, they can lead to cooling, such as in desert climates) that continue to expand and develop.  I think that, in the future, over large areas, the zones will gain and lose latitude based on multi-decades long climate trends.  The urban centers will tend to be warmer (often substantially) than nearby rural areas of similar topography and geography. 

I regularly monitor this effect in my area and on cool to chilly nights, the city averages easily 5-8F warmer than rural areas.  Lately for example, it has been common to see mid-50s for lows in the suburbs and outlying areas and low-60s downtown.  I have also noticed that the highs lately have been consistently 1-3F higher in urban Orlando than in the suburbs. 

How it used to be here:

A palm grower feared that severe freeze that took us down to 18-22F and wiped out anything tropical and pretty much any palm except Pindos and Sabals.  Queen palms, gone.

How it is for me now:

I fear the day when a really hard freeze takes us down into the 24-26F range, wiping out almost all of my zone 10 palms and making the tropicals look atrocious for the next 6 months (many tropicals killed as well).  Queen palms, basically untouched.

[RedRabbit]

11 minutes ago, palmsOrl said:

Whether climate change is real and an ongoing phenomenon, I will not even try to comment or conjecture.  One change that is very real is the warming of urban areas and progressive warming in urban areas (in most climate types, urban areas add heat, while in a few, they can lead to cooling, such as in desert climates) that continue to expand and develop.  I think that, in the future, over large areas, the zones will gain and lose latitude based on multi-decades long climate trends.  The urban centers will tend to be warmer (often substantially) than nearby rural areas of similar topography and geography. 

I regularly monitor this effect in my area and on cool to chilly nights, the city averages easily 5-8F warmer than rural areas.  Lately for example, it has been common to see mid-50s for lows in the suburbs and outlying areas and low-60s downtown.  I have also noticed that the highs lately have been consistently 1-3F higher in urban Orlando than in the suburbs. 

How it used to be here:

A palm grower feared that severe freeze that took us down to 18-22F and wiped out anything tropical and pretty much any palm except Pindos and Sabals.  Queen palms, gone.

How it is for me now:

I fear the day when a really hard freeze takes us down into the 24-26F range, wiping out almost all of my zone 10 palms and making the tropicals look atrocious for the next 6 months (many tropicals killed as well).  Queen palms, basically untouched.

I was thinking about the map Ed posted about... That map projects where we'll be in 2040 based off trends from 1971-2010 and I'd agree with you that Orlando is warmer now than in 1971 due to urbanization. The rate of growth in Central Florida surely won't be repeated from 2010-2040. If that map suggests we'll be warmer due to past urbanization trends then it almost certainly is overestimating where we'll be in 2040. 

[Eric in Orlando]

The metro part of Orlando has always been warm, it has just expanded out. Otherwise it has stayed about the same here, the outlying areas still get cold like they used to. Prior to the first big freeze in 1983 there were lots of zone 10 tropical plants and trees in Orlando/Winter Park. The freezes of 1983. 85 and 89 wiped most out. Since then lots of been replanted and growing well. Zone 10 areas in Orlando aren't big enough to be represented by a non-detailed map. It is a neighborhood to neighborhood thing.

I just came across an old photo from an estate in Oakland, probably from the 1930s. There were mature royal palms there. Oakland is about 20 miles west of Orlando on the south side of Lake Apopka. No royal palms survived the 1980s freezes but there are some growing there now.

 

[Jimbean]

You will have an influx of retirees from the baby boom demographic.  Other than that, unless Orlando can attract some industry, you will not have a significant warming trend after about 20 years from now. 

I actually came up with an equation correlating approximately between population density and heat island that was based on a number of cities and the census bureau.

[Sandy Loam]

On ‎3‎/‎12‎/‎2016‎ ‎8‎:‎02‎:‎00‎, Ed in Houston said:

Here is a link to the 2012 climate zone maps.

http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/

And here is the projected climate change for the 2011-2040 period.

 

 

Ed in Houston

 

Not to digress too far from the conversation about future climates, but I wonder why the NOAA maps above don't use USDA Zone 11 like the USDA.  USDA maps show a zone 11 strip in the eastern half of Miami and all down the barrier islands coastline from there through the end of the Florida Keys.  The USDA indicates that the Florida Middle Keys and Lower Keys are a solid zone 11b.  There is also a USDA-mapped Zone 11 area in coastal Los Angeles and the islands just off coastal Southern California.    

Here is the link to the updated USDA map: 

http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/InteractiveMap.aspx

Although the USDA map documents zones as high as 13b, those zones do not appear in the continental United States (but obviously do appear in tropical U.S. off-shore territories).  The maps shows no other zone 11 areas in the continental 50 U.S. states currently, but there are patches which come close:  Coastal southern Texas is shown as zone 10 and the region near Yuma, Arizona are listed as zone 10b; a tiny, remote tip of Louisiana is listed as zone 10a.   The USDA map misidentifies Orlando as zone 9b, even though Orlando is full of Zone 10 landscaping that does well there.         

 

[Jimbean]

Orlando is not zone 10A.  If I ever have the spare time, which I probably won't, I will draw a map of Orange and Seminole counties and provide justifications for it.

[RedRabbit]

On 4/12/2016, 8:28:55, Eric in Orlando said:

The metro part of Orlando has always been warm, it has just expanded out. Otherwise it has stayed about the same here, the outlying areas still get cold like they used to. Prior to the first big freeze in 1983 there were lots of zone 10 tropical plants and trees in Orlando/Winter Park. The freezes of 1983. 85 and 89 wiped most out. Since then lots of been replanted and growing well. Zone 10 areas in Orlando aren't big enough to be represented by a non-detailed map. It is a neighborhood to neighborhood thing.

I just came across an old photo from an estate in Oakland, probably from the 1930s. There were mature royal palms there. Oakland is about 20 miles west of Orlando on the south side of Lake Apopka. No royal palms survived the 1980s freezes but there are some growing there now.

 

Thanks for the history there Eric. 

11 hours ago, Jimbean said:

You will have an influx of retirees from the baby boom demographic.  Other than that, unless Orlando can attract some industry, you will not have a significant warming trend after about 20 years from now. 

I actually came up with an equation correlating approximately between population density and heat island that was based on a number of cities and the census bureau.

Can you share the equation? Sounds interesting for sure.

10 hours ago, Sandy Loam said:

 

Not to digress too far from the conversation about future climates, but I wonder why the NOAA maps above don't use USDA Zone 11 like the USDA.  USDA maps show a zone 11 strip in the eastern half of Miami and all down the barrier islands coastline from there through the end of the Florida Keys.  The USDA indicates that the Florida Middle Keys and Lower Keys are a solid zone 11b.  There is also a USDA-mapped Zone 11 area in coastal Los Angeles and the islands just off coastal Southern California.    

Here is the link to the updated USDA map: 

http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/InteractiveMap.aspx

Although the USDA map documents zones as high as 13b, those zones do not appear in the continental United States (but obviously do appear in tropical U.S. off-shore territories).  The maps shows no other zone 11 areas in the continental 50 U.S. states currently, but there are patches which come close:  Coastal southern Texas is shown as zone 10 and the region near Yuma, Arizona are listed as zone 10b; a tiny, remote tip of Louisiana is listed as zone 10a.   The USDA map misidentifies Orlando as zone 9b, even though Orlando is full of Zone 10 landscaping that does well there.         

 

Good question on Zone 11. I think Zone 11 is a little bigger than what the USDA map shows. I remember someone along the intercoastal in Ft. Lauderdale posting not long ago saying the lowest temp they recorded in the past 15yrs had been 38f so it is hard to see how that couldn't be 11a. I'd guess 11a extends through Broward County on the immediate coast. On the west coast perhaps Marco Island? I'm not too sure there if anywhere on the gulf is above 10b, the Gulf of Mexico gets much colder during the winter than the Atlantic... There could be a case for Miami Beach being 11b. Naturally I think it should at least be 11a with Biscayne Bay on one side and the Gulf Stream on the other, but it is also about the most urban spot in Florida so that is even more helpful. I haven't done the research so I don't know for sure, but just logically speaking it would make sense.

9 hours ago, Jimbean said:

Orlando is not zone 10A.  If I ever have the spare time, which I probably won't, I will draw a map of Orange and Seminole counties and provide justifications for it.

I'm convinced the area between downtown and Orlando Executive Airport is low end 10a, but other than that I'm not too sure. After seeing what all is in Leu Gardens it is difficult to argue against it.  

[Yunder Wækraus]

On 3/16/2016, 9:35:05, Funkthulhu said:

I don't quite understand the logic behind bumping up the zones.  

Granted, the "average" winter temperature is going up all across the globe, but that's not was the zone is about.  The Zones (by my understanding) represents the lowest temperature you can expect to see over the winter months.  It doesn't matter if most of the month of January is above 40 degrees if the first week of February the polar vortex rolls in with the low teens.  

I don't want to make this into a global warming thread, but additional energy in the atmosphere does two things.  First, it raises the annual average temperature around the globe and some regions may see sharp rises (or falls) in temp in various seasons.  Second, it adds a certain instability to the atmosphere.  More energy means more powerful weather systems and the instability of those weather systems is going to allow something like the polar vortex to penetrate further south than is has previously, and do so most years.  By this reasoning, I would think that the zones would drop not rise.  

Like I said, it doesn't matter if your winter is 10 degrees above the average 20 years ago, if you also get a week of record lows that kill everything.

anyway, my $0.02

You nailed it :-)

[NorCalKing]

On March 14, 2016 at 6:30:35 PM, nitsua0895 said:

I noticed that according to that map there won't be much of a change in Montgomery. Is it possible that we could change to a solid zone 9a? I've read that we are actually considered zone 8a but that makes no sense to me. The absolute coldest minimum temp I can remember was 13F. And this past year we had a borderline zone 9b winter. 

So to average zone 8a it would seem we'd have to experience 6b-7b winters more often. Maybe two or three times a century.

According to weather .com your all time record was -5F. So I wouldn't think 9A is in the cards anytime soon. Like most of north florida you just don't have any protection from the big deep polar vortexes that can easily reach Montgomery when they dip far enough every few winters.

 

https://weather.com/weather/monthly/l/USAL0375:1:US

Edited April 20, 2016 by NorCalKing

[NorCalKing]

5 hours ago, Yunder Wækraus said:

You nailed it :-)

That he did!