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The Ice Age Cometh


Ed in Houston
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Scientists warn the sun will 'go to sleep' in 2030 and could cause temperatures to plummet

"A new study claims to have cracked predicting solar cycles - and says that between 2020 and 2030 solar cycles will cancel each other out."

"This, they say, will lead to a phenomenon known as the 'Maunder minimum' - which has previously been known as a mini ice age when it hit between 1646 and 1715, even causing London's River Thames to freeze over. "

"During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity."
"'Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%."

The good news is that one will probably still be able to grow Sabals in Miami.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3156594/Is-mini-ICE-AGE-way-Scientists-warn-sun-sleep-2020-cause-temperatures-plummet.html

Ed in Houston

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Its that darn 3% that keeps getting in the way of complete certainty.......in 2007 (only 8 years ago) the climatologists were predicting a 3 meter rise in the sea level....aren't you surprised in did not happen? And lately, we are hearing the prediction (to almost a near certainty) of El Nino causing heavy rain and landsides in CA this winter.......yet many are not paying much attention to this much nearer term prediction.

2 weeks ago, predictions for 'near' 90 temps in NorCal were predicted for the week....we hit 109 a week ago Tuesday, a miss of 20% for something only 3 days in advance.....

If the sun chooses to cool, OK,...but 15 years from now, it may change its mind......

John Case

Brentwood CA

Owner and curator of Hana Keu Garden

USDA Zone 9b more or less, Sunset Zone 14 in winter 9 in summer

"Its always exciting the first time you save the world. Its a real thrill!"

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Its that darn 3% that keeps getting in the way of complete certainty.......in 2007 (only 8 years ago) the climatologists were predicting a 3 meter rise in the sea level....aren't you surprised in did not happen? And lately, we are hearing the prediction (to almost a near certainty) of El Nino causing heavy rain and landsides in CA this winter.......yet many are not paying much attention to this much nearer term prediction.

2 weeks ago, predictions for 'near' 90 temps in NorCal were predicted for the week....we hit 109 a week ago Tuesday, a miss of 20% for something only 3 days in advance.....

If the sun chooses to cool, OK,...but 15 years from now, it may change its mind......

2007: https://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2007/03/16/18377388.php

NASA Climatologist Predicts Disastrous Sea Level Rise

"Sea level rise is now going up about 3.5 centimetres per decade."

2013: Wiki

"In its Fifth Assessment Report (2013), The IPCC found that recent observations of global average sea level rise at a rate of 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6] mm per year"
Repeating something you heard on Fox news??
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just overeacting to the overreaction, I guess.....

John Case

Brentwood CA

Owner and curator of Hana Keu Garden

USDA Zone 9b more or less, Sunset Zone 14 in winter 9 in summer

"Its always exciting the first time you save the world. Its a real thrill!"

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Its that darn 3% that keeps getting in the way of complete certainty.......in 2007 (only 8 years ago) the climatologists were predicting a 3 meter rise in the sea level....aren't you surprised in did not happen? And lately, we are hearing the prediction (to almost a near certainty) of El Nino causing heavy rain and landsides in CA this winter.......yet many are not paying much attention to this much nearer term prediction.

2 weeks ago, predictions for 'near' 90 temps in NorCal were predicted for the week....we hit 109 a week ago Tuesday, a miss of 20% for something only 3 days in advance.....

If the sun chooses to cool, OK,...but 15 years from now, it may change its mind......

2007: https://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2007/03/16/18377388.php

NASA Climatologist Predicts Disastrous Sea Level Rise

"Sea level rise is now going up about 3.5 centimetres per decade."

2013: Wiki

"In its Fifth Assessment Report (2013), The IPCC found that recent observations of global average sea level rise at a rate of 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6] mm per year"
Repeating something you heard on Fox news??

Read it . Its from the Daily Mail.

Palms not just a tree also a state of mind

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Daily Mail is the last place I'd go for credible news...

One should be aware that journalism has been on it's last leg of credibility since the entry into the disinformation age in 1984.

orwell-universal-deceit.jpg

WilliamCaseyQuote.jpg

One should check their sources of information. The article on solar physics dynamics was first published by the Royal Astronomical Society established in the UK in 1820, and subsequently published in Science Daily before the Daily Mail picked up the story. The first president of the RAS was John Herschel.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm

The author of the article is Valentina Zharkova Professor in Mathematics at Northumbria University and her research team. She has a BSc/MSc in Applied Mathematics and Astronomy, a Ph.D. in Astrophysics, certificate in project management.

The problem with climatologists and meteorologists is that they are not astrophysicists.

Ed in Houston

Ed in Houston

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Every response to every reply in these types of threads on this board and most others generally points to this old quote, "We actually tend to make emotional decisions first, and then look for facts to justify that decision."

This one comes to mind second, "It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled."

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In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Lol....here we go again.....

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Science proceeds in definition usually in fits and starts with an occasional great leap forward.

Science proceeds along the path: Philosophy>Metaphysics>Hypothesis>Testing>Science.
It is recursive in that if testing fails to be predictive the hypothesis is revised to meet observation.
The current state of climate models is in the Hypothesis stage. When models become predictive it can be said that a hypothesis has made the transition to science. The "pause" in warming that is in opposition to current climate models indicates that more sophisticated models are needed to have a predictive model. The solar model put forth is at it's hypothesis stage and if it is proven to be predictive then it can transition to science. Predictive volcanism is still in it's infancy and therefore is a wild card. In the meantime there will be lots of jawboning.
Ed in Houston
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Lol....here we go again.....

Nice to see this topic pop up again. It just does not go away.

dk

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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A very paradoxical result of trying disprove people's beliefs through logical argument and fact-based reasoning is that the majority will actually cling tighter to their presupposed notions. Some members of the target group will even swing wildly to the opposition and actively defend what they know is not true, they will even start referring to your fact-based arguments as lies and/or conspiracy theories.

This is one of the core mechanics of the problem that is global climate change denial.

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"Ph'nglui mglw'napalma Funkthulhu R'Lincolnea wgah'palm fhtagn"
"In his house at Lincoln, dread Funkthulhu plants palm trees."

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Notable scientists predict that this thread will self-destruct in under 5 more entries. The thread destruction deniers will call on their own science and add at least 5 more entries and the debate will continue.

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Carl

Vista, CA

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A very paradoxical result of trying disprove people's beliefs through logical argument and fact-based reasoning is that the majority will actually cling tighter to their presupposed notions. Some members of the target group will even swing wildly to the opposition and actively defend what they know is not true, they will even start referring to your fact-based arguments as lies and/or conspiracy theories.

This is one of the core mechanics of the problem that is global climate change denial.

I do not think it is possible for anyone to deny climate change. The only thing the Earth's climate has ever done is change. The question is where is the constant change going, how much does mankind impact this, and if there is anything that can be done to direct changes.

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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This graph from NOAA paleo climate page - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/data2.html shows temperatures and CO2 over the past 350,000 years. During most of this time there was no man made CO2 emissions. My view is that mankind needs to stop polluting the planet whatever the impact there is on climate change. As the graph shows warmer interglacials than the current one we are in.

data2-dome-fuji-lg.gif

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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You gotta post a curve with a current CO2 count. This graph doesn't even go up to the 400+ppm we are at now. Also consider that the low points in this graph appear at the same time there's a mile of ice over much of North America, Europe, Asia...

4_5_degrees.png

ice_sheets.png

Edited by Funkthulhu
  • Upvote 1

"Ph'nglui mglw'napalma Funkthulhu R'Lincolnea wgah'palm fhtagn"
"In his house at Lincoln, dread Funkthulhu plants palm trees."

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There was no ice in my neighborhood 21,000 years ago. And, palm trees grew pretty well.

dk

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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Has the Earth ended the cycle of Ice Ages?

dk

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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I don't think the cycles have "ended", but they may be interrupted for the further duration of human activity. (at least until we get our stuff together and reduce emissions)

That being said, it may come to pass that after we (centuries from now?) get control of our climate we may choose to alter it and prevent future ice ages. (It would be bad for the economy...)

However, one thing I would like to point out about our current CO2 levels. Your graph shows a max min of nearly 300 ppm down to just under 200 ppm. The 200 ppm CO2 level is equatable to the deepest cold at the bottoms of each of the previous ice ages. We are currently above 400 ppm CO2. The take home idea here is that we have pumped CO2 as far above its geologicly recent maximum, as that value was above the geologically measured minimum. We're basically Double the CO2 at the coldest part of the ice ages and we've increased the margin of that minimum to the previous maximum by 200% in less than 200 years...

Edited by Funkthulhu
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"Ph'nglui mglw'napalma Funkthulhu R'Lincolnea wgah'palm fhtagn"
"In his house at Lincoln, dread Funkthulhu plants palm trees."

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@!?!

How do I delete a double post?

Edited by Funkthulhu
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"Ph'nglui mglw'napalma Funkthulhu R'Lincolnea wgah'palm fhtagn"
"In his house at Lincoln, dread Funkthulhu plants palm trees."

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There was no ice in my neighborhood 21,000 years ago. And, palm trees grew pretty well.

dk

Now you're just showing off! :mrlooney:

John Case

Brentwood CA

Owner and curator of Hana Keu Garden

USDA Zone 9b more or less, Sunset Zone 14 in winter 9 in summer

"Its always exciting the first time you save the world. Its a real thrill!"

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A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices. - William James

  • Upvote 1

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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I like that Keith.

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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I do too.

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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I don't think the cycles have "ended", but they may be interrupted for the further duration of human activity. (at least until we get our stuff together and reduce emissions)

That being said, it may come to pass that after we (centuries from now?) get control of our climate we may choose to alter it and prevent future ice ages. (It would be bad for the economy...)

However, one thing I would like to point out about our current CO2 levels. Your graph shows a max min of nearly 300 ppm down to just under 200 ppm. The 200 ppm CO2 level is equatable to the deepest cold at the bottoms of each of the previous ice ages. We are currently above 400 ppm CO2. The take home idea here is that we have pumped CO2 as far above its geologicly recent maximum, as that value was above the geologically measured minimum. We're basically Double the CO2 at the coldest part of the ice ages and we've increased the margin of that minimum to the previous maximum by 200% in less than 200 years...

What NOAAs graph (not mine) shows is that at the interglacials in the cycles of the ice age the CO2 was at around 300 PPM. Wouldn't the comparison be from that to the current levels. There are still a lot of people that claim that the CO2 rise is not what caused the ice age cycles, but the cycles released more CO2 as it warmed. In addition many believe that CO2 is not the main driver of warming. Now I really don't know. I am just a guy from Montana that lives next to the Rio Negro. I guess it is sort of like politicians in Brazil, what comes first the corruption or the politicians?

dk

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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Wow, no more worries now. We can trash this lair. Got a new neighborhood to move in to.

'Earth 2.0' found in Nasa Kepler telescope haul

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33641648

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Keith,

That is great news. As soon as Nasa get;s the first warp drive space ship on line we can just pop right over there and take a look.

hqdefault.jpg

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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With the discovery of Earth like planets comes the possibility of intelligent life.

As a bonus to finding intelligent life they may also be good to eat and we could have a whale of a time.

Ed in Houston

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I don't think the cycles have "ended", but they may be interrupted for the further duration of human activity. (at least until we get our stuff together and reduce emissions)

That being said, it may come to pass that after we (centuries from now?) get control of our climate we may choose to alter it and prevent future ice ages. (It would be bad for the economy...)

However, one thing I would like to point out about our current CO2 levels. Your graph shows a max min of nearly 300 ppm down to just under 200 ppm. The 200 ppm CO2 level is equatable to the deepest cold at the bottoms of each of the previous ice ages. We are currently above 400 ppm CO2. The take home idea here is that we have pumped CO2 as far above its geologicly recent maximum, as that value was above the geologically measured minimum. We're basically Double the CO2 at the coldest part of the ice ages and we've increased the margin of that minimum to the previous maximum by 200% in less than 200 years...

What NOAAs graph (not mine) shows is that at the interglacials in the cycles of the ice age the CO2 was at around 300 PPM. Wouldn't the comparison be from that to the current levels. There are still a lot of people that claim that the CO2 rise is not what caused the ice age cycles, but the cycles released more CO2 as it warmed. In addition many believe that CO2 is not the main driver of warming. Now I really don't know. I am just a guy from Montana that lives next to the Rio Negro. I guess it is sort of like politicians in Brazil, what comes first the corruption or the politicians?

dk

Okay, you've got the right idea. The interglacial was almost 300ppm, we are now at 400+ppm. 400ppm is twice as much more than the usual interglacial when compared to the ~200ppm at the depth of an ice age. This increase is not natural, but the biogeochem-cycles are really spinning up to try to accommodate all that extra CO2. The result is local climate changes, and global warming in general.

Wow, no more worries now. We can trash this lair. Got a new neighborhood to move in to.

'Earth 2.0' found in Nasa Kepler telescope haul

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33641648

I like that everybody is excited about this. We really are starting to reach out and see our universe as more diverse and interesting than it was previously thought. However, I would point out that Kepler 452b is not guaranteed to have life. The way we rank extrasolar planets, if applied to our own solar system, would show Venus to be a near twin of Earth. It's almost the same size, has an atmosphere, is very solidly in the "goldilocks zone" of our sun, it should be perfect. But, we know it's not. Kepler 452b is a really neat thing to talk about, but there is no reasonable way to determine if there is life there and all our suppositions, while good at ranking hundreds of worlds, may not apply to a single world that could be bucking the system. (or not!)

I'm waiting for that propulsion breakthrough that would allow us to send interstellar probes that could reach their destination in centuries instead of many many millennia.

Edited by Funkthulhu

"Ph'nglui mglw'napalma Funkthulhu R'Lincolnea wgah'palm fhtagn"
"In his house at Lincoln, dread Funkthulhu plants palm trees."

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Wow, no more worries now. We can trash this lair. Got a new neighborhood to move in to.

'Earth 2.0' found in Nasa Kepler telescope haul

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33641648

- keith

Funk - I like that everybody is excited about this. We really are starting to reach out and see our universe as more diverse and interesting than it was previously thought. However, I would point out that Kepler 452b is not guaranteed to have life. The way we rank extrasolar planets, if applied to our own solar system, would show Venus to be a near twin of Earth. It's almost the same size, has an atmosphere, is very solidly in the "goldilocks zone" of our sun, it should be perfect. But, we know it's not. Kepler 452b is a really neat thing to talk about, but there is no reasonable way to determine if there is life there and all our suppositions, while good at ranking hundreds of worlds, may not apply to a single world that could be bucking the system. (or not!)

I'm waiting for that propulsion breakthrough that would allow us to send interstellar probes that could reach their destination in centuries instead of many many millennia.

Oh, that was just dark humor.

  • Upvote 1

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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With warp drive it would be more like a couple of weeks or so. Everything I have seen lately seems to point toward the very real possiblity of warping space time and go where no one has gone before. Nasa is thinking that it is possible. And a lot of the best minds also do. Of course there is a lot to overcome to actually work. Like what to do with all the space junk you pick up while warping through the cosmos. It was not long ago that people could not imagine popping around the world like we do today. Once the negative energy component is figured out who knows where we can go. I always liked the star trek begining when the Enterprise moves into warp speed and disappears in a flash.

dk

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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Well, since I brought us here, let me be Debbie Downer. But it is a great read.

https://m.imgur.com/gallery/Wtog9

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Thanks Keith, That summarizes what I watched lately on You Tube videos The article did not bring up the multiverse theory though. We are probably in one of an incomprehensible number of universes. My little kids can not imagine a world without an X box or a cell phone. When I was growing up in the 50s I knew people who grew up in the 1800s. My great grandmother for example. Human life has changed a lot since then. And, all indications are it is changing at an ever greater speed. Regarding the topic of what drives climate change from everything I have read on both sides of the subject we really do not know what is really going on. And, there are plenty of people with informed minds that believe that CO2 is not what drives climate change. I am not saying we should be doing nothing about emissions of the gas. Too much of a good thing is normally a bad thing. I just find it difficult to believe that we have reached the point to stop the ice age cycle we are in from progressing.

dk

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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Well, since I brought us here, let me be Debbie Downer. But it is a great read.

https://m.imgur.com/gallery/Wtog9

The problem with the seemingly Fermi Paradox from the Drake equation is not one of the lack of predictive accuracy of the Drake hypothesis but one of linear thinking. It appears that the norm of technological progress is to accelerate exponentially. Practically this means that another technologically entity has almost no chance of being near the same level of technological advancement as humans because once the knee of the exponential curve is reached the technological prowess of the entity zooms off to near infinity in a short period of time. This makes the other entities impossible to recognize as it could be the universe itself.

Ed in Houston

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