For Californians

[epicure3]

from accuweather............

The Long Range Part 2: Record Heat?

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Yesterday I dove into the long range outlook head over heels. I went on the record saying that southern California may not see any rain through at least next week, or maybe longer. That generated a lot of groans from my readers, especially the ski buffs. Adding to the their dismay was the fact that I was also predicting more unseasonable warmth. At the risk of sending some of those folks over the edge, I will give some more specifics on the potential HEAT coming.

Starting Saturday and continuing at least into next Tuesday a huge ridge develops over California, the warmest weather is most likely Sunday through Tuesday. This ridge will be stronger and probably warmer than the one we have just seen. Lets put a few things into perspective. Here are a few of the normal highs for this time of year.

Sacramento-64

Fresno-65

Downtown Los Angeles-69

Palm Springs-77

At the warmest in the Sunday through Tuesday time period, temperatures in Sacramento will likely rise into the middle and upper 70s, in the Fresno area expect lower 80s, in the Los Angeles area upper 80s and lower 90s can be achieved, and in Palm Springs the middle 90s are easily within reach. Record high temperatures are going to be challenged, and in some cases broken, from the Central Valley to southern California including the lower deserts. As you can see temperatures are expected to be as much as 20 degrees above normal.

And looking beyond early next week, temperatures for much of California and the Southwest are likely to continue above, to much above normal, with little if any precipitation. In fact I will stick by what I said yesterday that from southern California to Arizona, no precipitation seems likely through the end of next week, at least.

[MattyB]

Cool!  I need warmth....got water in my hose.

[STEVE IN SO CAL]

...and there was much rejoicing and merriment among the natives...and all was good.

[BS Man about Palms]

I was hoping to post tonite that I would love about a month or so of this weather to bring these palms back!

High clouds, bordering on overcast, about 60%RH and temp about 75-80F daytime, high 40's to 50F at night.!

I did post in another thread about a week ago that our own favorite nut, John Coleman, had said a little quip: "the KUSI supercomputer sees a possibility of

no more rain for the next 6 months..."

Last night he said he sees no rain in SD till at LEAST the 21st.

I think it twill be very dry for a while.....

[happ]

California remains under a southwest flow of subtropical air.  Currently that means cloudiness w/ little if any rain    Another warm to hot weekend is forecast as the clouds diminish & offshore winds kick-in again.

90F/32c was reported in Anaheim yesterday w/ 80's widespread.  60's for the 4th consecutive night.

March 2006 was the coldest on record but this year appears to be following a more normal pattern minus much needed rainfall.  

Palms continue to push up new growth  

LA : 87/62 [yesterday]

[epicure3]

One of my royals opening right now.

[elHoagie]

This weather is awesome!  I finally set up my thermometer at my new place last night, and what a nice surprise this morning.  The low was 16C (62F) this morning, which is 1C warmer than the 60F low recorded for downtown LA.  My old place in Altadena was usually about 3-5C colder than downtown LA, so this is a nice change...

[Scott]

One of my favorite things to do is get out there and water the palms. It's time!

My Arenga is starting a new sprout! I can't wait to see how everything is gonna grow this coming season

[happ]

(elHoagie @ Mar. 07 2007,13:45)

QUOTE

This weather is awesome!  I finally set up my thermometer at my new place last night, and what a nice surprise this morning.  The low was 16C (62F) this morning, which is 1C warmer than the 60F low recorded for downtown LA.  My old place in Altadena was usually about 3-5C colder than downtown LA, so this is a nice change...

Welcome to USDA 11, Jack  

Tabulated winter data this morning [Dec 1 to today - 3/7/07].  Two minimums below 40F/14.4c [coldest night 37F/2.7c] in Jan. But 37 nights in the 40's   Ten nights above 60F/15.5c.

Average max:

Dec : 71.8

Jan : 67.7

Feb : 71.1

Average min:

Dec : 51.3

Jan : 49.1

Feb : 52.4

BTW, your native walnuts attract grasshoppers that even eat palms [esp euterpe] I hear the males rubbing their legs & calling out females every day now.  Unfortunately there's vitually nothing that can done to stop grasshoppers  

[MattyB]

Put the walnuts in the neighbors yard.

[NBTX11]

(happ @ Mar. 07 2007,10:41)

QUOTE

March 2006 was the coldest on record but this year appears to be following a more normal pattern minus much needed rainfall.  

Palms continue to push up new growth  

LA : 87/62 [yesterday]

Those are nice temperatures, bu isn't that way above (15-20 degrees) normal, and not a normal pattern.  I think LA's average is around 70F, if I'm not mistaken.  Either way, that's nice weather!

[happ]

(syersj @ Mar. 07 2007,18:37)

QUOTE

(happ @ Mar. 07 2007,10:41)

QUOTE

March 2006 was the coldest on record but this year appears to be following a more normal pattern minus much needed rainfall.  

Palms continue to push up new growth  

LA : 87/62 [yesterday]

Those are nice temperatures, bu isn't that way above (15-20 degrees) normal, and not a normal pattern.  I think LA's average is around 70F, if I'm not mistaken.  Either way, that's nice weather!

You're right, Jim.  Recent temps in the 80's are over 10 degrees above normal.  I was comparing this year to last year's very chilly March.  It is normal to have warm spells & March normally has a few days in the 90's each year.

Coastal California, unlike both Florida & south Texas, stays fairly cool into March; only two degrees warmer from Feb to March [normal 71 to 73] due, in part, to cold ocean temps [55F - 62F].

[NBTX11]

Happ, I'm sure you'll take all the warm weather you can get.  We tend to start seeing an occasional 90 too in March, with the average hi in the upper 70s later in March, and adding a degree 4 days or so.  It has gotten up to 100F in March here before.  We don't have a cold ocean to cool us down and it can really heat up fast (or can still be coolish if a front comes through).  But Mar around here usually really starts heating up.

[happ]

Spring is slower in California but starts early.  By May it is it cool & cloudy every morning & still generally under 80F/26c.  Summer doesn't really start until July & just under 90F/32c.  Quite different from the moist mugginess of the US South.  Plant life is slower in Cali  

[spockvr6]

(happ @ Mar. 07 2007,15:51)

QUOTE

Tabulated winter data this morning [Dec 1 to today - 3/7/07].  Two minimums below 40F/14.4c [coldest night 37F/2.7c] in Jan. But 37 nights in the 40's   Ten nights above 60F/15.5c.

Happ-

You made me look at my data for this info as well.

Over here in my yard in Tarpon Springs for the period 12/1/06 through 3/7/2007----

Lows below 40F = 4

Lows between 40-49F = 27

Lows between 45-49F = 13

Lows greater than 60F = 37

Ive found online access to the official station data in pseudo real time for Tarpon Springs and that station runs warmer than my yard by a substantial margin.  Im not 100% sure why yet.  Just by looking at the site where it is located (I have physcially seen the sensor location) it doesnt seem that it would be warmer than my yard, but these things are always hard to judge.

[NBTX11]

(spockvr6 @ Mar. 08 2007,09:37)

QUOTE

(happ @ Mar. 07 2007,15:51)

QUOTE

Tabulated winter data this morning [Dec 1 to today - 3/7/07].  Two minimums below 40F/14.4c [coldest night 37F/2.7c] in Jan. But 37 nights in the 40's   Ten nights above 60F/15.5c.

Happ-

You made me look at my data for this info as well.

Over here in my yard in Tarpon Springs for the period 12/1/06 through 3/7/2007----

Lows below 40F = 4

Lows between 40-49F = 27

Lows between 45-49F = 13

Lows greater than 60F = 37

Ive found online access to the official station data in pseudo real time for Tarpon Springs and that station runs warmer than my yard by a substantial margin.  Im not 100% sure why yet.  Just by looking at the site where it is located (I have physcially seen the sensor location) it doesnt seem that it would be warmer than my yard, but these things are always hard to judge.

Yeah, but doesn't your summer go well into the fall months.  I thought normally Sep and Oct can be 2 of your warmest months.

[spockvr6]

(syersj @ Mar. 08 2007,10:20)

QUOTE

Yeah, but doesn't your summer go well into the fall months.  I thought normally Sep and Oct can be 2 of your warmest months.

On average, September is still summerlike, but October starts the fall downward as the average high at the beginning of the month is 88F, while at the end of the month it is only 82F.

[happ]

(spockvr6 @ Mar. 08 2007,09:37)

QUOTE

(happ @ Mar. 07 2007,15:51)

QUOTE

Tabulated winter data this morning [Dec 1 to today - 3/7/07].  Two minimums below 40F/14.4c [coldest night 37F/2.7c] in Jan. But 37 nights in the 40's   Ten nights above 60F/15.5c.

Happ-

You made me look at my data for this info as well.

Over here in my yard in Tarpon Springs for the period 12/1/06 through 3/7/2007----

Lows below 40F = 4

Lows between 40-49F = 27

Lows between 45-49F = 13

Lows greater than 60F = 37

Ive found online access to the official station data in pseudo real time for Tarpon Springs and that station runs warmer than my yard by a substantial margin.  Im not 100% sure why yet.  Just by looking at the site where it is located (I have physcially seen the sensor location) it doesnt seem that it would be warmer than my yard, but these things are always hard to judge.

Digging your stats, Larry   Thanks for the data, dude

Those winter nights above 60F/ 15.5c are among the key elements to mature growth [along with a very long & hot rain season].  I was, once again, astonded by the size & beauty of veitchia/roystonea/cocos/ravenea in Miami.  :cool:  

Summer lingers in California, also & areas like San Francisco don't warm up until Sept  

[elHoagie]

(happ @ Mar. 07 2007,12:51)

QUOTE

Welcome to USDA 11, Jack  

BTW, your native walnuts attract grasshoppers that even eat palms [esp euterpe] I hear the males rubbing their legs & calling out females every day now.  Unfortunately there's vitually nothing that can done to stop grasshoppers  

It's nice to be here in USDA 11!  I was a little worried this morning when my sensor read a cold 11C (52F).  Then I checked the low for downtown LA, and it was 50F this morning.  If I'm consistently 1C warmer than downtown then I'll be VERY happy...

My wife has already found at least one HUGE grasshopper in our yard.  Back in Altadena the grasshoppers seemed to focus on a couple palm species and leave the rest alone, hopefully the El Sereno grasshoppers will do the same.

[happ]

Grasshoppers also like :

Syzygium samarangense/Java apple

Michelia cocos

Black walnut is a protected species & host for grasshoppers  

Temp drop of 10 degrees to normal readings this morning.  I work in downtown & always notice the warmer mornings.  My minimums are generally 1 or 2 degrees cooler than in the city [probably due to open countryside]

[spockvr6]

(happ @ Mar. 08 2007,12:31)

QUOTE

Digging your stats, Larry   Thanks for the data, dude

Those winter nights above 60F/ 15.5c are among the key elements to mature growth [along with a very long & hot rain season].  

Happ-

Here are the stats for the station at Fred Howard Park in Tarpon Springs.  This station is on the Gulf.  You can see there is a very large difference between these readings and mine.

I cant get this data for March yet, so this is 12/1/06 through 2/28/2007 (and is thus short 7 days worth of data).

Lows below 40F = 0

Lows between 40-49F = 23

Lows between 45-49F = 17

Lows greater than 60F = 42

Absolute minimum 40.6F on 2/17/2007.  (My low on this same night was 34.3F).

[happ]

Interesting observation [if you live in Los Angeles - actually/probably boring data if you live in LA or anywhere else  :laugh:

Feb 2007

[Downtown/USC]

Ave Max : 71.4                                  

Ave Min :  51.5                                  

MEAN        61.5  

Mt Washington/NE Foothills

Ave Max : 71.1

Ave Min : 52.4

Mean : 61.7

Jack

I think the warmest readings in LA are observed in Westwood/Getty/Santa Monica Mts.  Nights in the 40's during Jan freeze  

Get ready to plant  

These veitchia in Hollywood lowland survived freeze

Going to get toasty this weekend  :cool:

[spockvr6]

I forgot to mention that the Fred Howard station is not the officially reported Tarpon Springs station.   I cant seem to grab the data from the official station tonight as I am getting errors.  

But, this official station will likely read right between my readings and those at Fred Howard.

[spockvr6]

(happ @ Mar. 08 2007,23:04)

QUOTE

These veitchia in Hollywood lowland survived freeze

Happ-

Against that large wall, I am sure those Veitchia would survive into the 20's F.

[happ]

I know how cement warms the air [ever drive under a freeway overpass after a hot day? Immediate heat.  My most sensitive plants are close to the road [which is very close to the house   ] & benefit from the extra warmth.

Am not surprised that St. Pete/coastline is considerably warmer on winter nights. Ocean temp should be near 70F/21c around Tampa bay by now.  That's a really beautiful area [ie Dali museum/banyan trees  :cool:

[spockvr6]

(happ @ Mar. 08 2007,23:33)

QUOTE

I know how cement warms the air [ever drive under a freeway overpass after a hot day?

IMO, after making lots of temp measurements around my yard, the biggest bonus of planting next to a wall is radiational heat transfer between the wall and the plant leaves.  The radiation passes through the air without heating it much, but since the wall and the leaves "see" each other, there is energy transfer between them.

[spockvr6]

(happ @ Mar. 08 2007,23:33)

QUOTE

Am not surprised that St. Pete/coastline is considerably warmer on winter nights. Ocean temp should be near 70F/21c around Tampa bay by now.  That's a really beautiful area [ie Dali museum/banyan trees  :cool:

If I had to guess, Id say Fred Howard Park is colder than the St. Pete coastline by probably half a zone on average. The Fred Howard Park area is father north and is pretty much one of the last stops for semi-reliable Coconut palms on the west coast.

[spockvr6]

Happ-

Now youve got me going.

I was able to grab the official Tarpon Springs data this AM and plotted it versus my yard and the Fred Howard Park station (which is a University of South FL Marine station).

My yard is colder than these other stations almost without exception!  Whoa is me

I do think that a few of the Tarpon Springs readings (especially the last 4 tallest peaks) are bogus though as I cant see any way this station would be warmer than one located on the Gulf (Fred Howard), and by that much.  So, I suppose the true low was not logged on those dates due to data sample rate, or dropping of data.

The official minimums for all three stations for the period are---

Fred Howard Park - 40.6F

Tarpon Springs - 38.1F

Larry's Jungle - 34.3F

I see a natural pecking order here  

[elHoagie]

(happ @ Mar. 08 2007,20:04)

QUOTE

Jack

I think the warmest readings in LA are observed in Westwood/Getty/Santa Monica Mts.  Nights in the 40's during Jan freeze  

I agree Happ.  A couple years ago I looked through all the NOAA data from 1995-2004, and the UCLA observing station was by far the warmest.  On average I think it was about 0.5C warmer than San Diego airport, and about 1C warmer than downtown LA and LAX.  And all the other socal stations are significantly colder than those four...

[MattyB]

Figures!  The richest microclimate for the richest neighborhood.

[SoLando]

(happ @ Mar. 08 2007,23:33)

QUOTE

Am not surprised that St. Pete/coastline is considerably warmer on winter nights. Ocean temp should be near 70F/21c around Tampa bay by now.  That's a really beautiful area [ie Dali museum/banyan trees  :cool:

Just went to the Dali a week ago. There were quite a few small inns that were surrounded by towering royals! However, I only saw a couple cocos. Tons of foxtails though. Gorgeous area. Driving through Polk and Hillsborough Counties was like driving through a desert! Everything was brown. I was surprised at how much greener Orange was. Guess the freezes were more severe in the Lakeland area.

This is beautiful weather!! Highs in the 80s with lows in the 60s. Got some good sunburn today after being outside from 11-1:30. Hopefully it'll turn into tan!

[happ]

Completely agree, Jen  

If I were to move to Florida, St. Pete would be high on my wish list.

It is warm across the southern half of the nation & will stay that way for a while  :cool:

[spockvr6]

(SoLando @ Mar. 09 2007,21:50)

QUOTE

Just went to the Dali a week ago. There were quite a few small inns that were surrounded by towering royals!

I get excited to see Royals up my way, but just a short drive down there and Royals become "ho-hum" (if that is possible).  They are everywhere.

[spockvr6]

(happ @ Mar. 09 2007,22:10)

QUOTE

If I were to move to Florida, St. Pete would be high on my wish list.

Happ-

I would say that, if one has to be in central FL and likes to grow palms, then there would be no better location than certain parts of St. Pete.    

But, if you really are serious about palms in FL, then the SE part of the state is the place to be.  Everywhere else is a distant 2nd.

[BS Man about Palms]

(spockvr6 @ Mar. 09 2007,19:26)

QUOTE

(happ @ Mar. 09 2007,22:10)

QUOTE

If I were to move to Florida, St. Pete would be high on my wish list.

Happ-

I would say that, if one has to be in central FL and likes to grow palms, then there would be no better location than certain parts of St. Pete.    

But, if you really are serious about palms in FL, then the SE part of the state is the place to be.  Everywhere else is a distant 2nd.

If I went back, I would be partial to Clearwater....since I am a Native..