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New Florida Winter Outlook


gsytch

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I will happily drag the hose around if old man winter continues to visit anywhere but Florida! :greenthumb:

Coral Gables, FL 8 miles North of Fairchild USDA Zone 10B

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Yeah, I agree, but still as little rainfall would be nice. Today was just beautiful, and I have some sunburn from working in the yard - in January! The closer we get to the middle of Feb, the closer we get to spring. :badday:

I will happily drag the hose around if old man winter continues to visit anywhere but Florida! :greenthumb:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Hopefully, we'll get some rain from the cool front passage on Wednesday. February 10th is fast approaching. After that date, the possibility for killing freezes goes way down. After the 20th, the chance for even a light freeze goes down dramatically.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Yes, the chances of freezes go way down after mid Feb. Rain? What's that? Its been so long since we have had a decent rainfall here. I believe Jan total is like 3/10". We are long overdue. :yay:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Mid 80s predicted for today and tommorow and a good chance of RAIN Wed. night !!! And cooler, near perfect seasonal temperatures this weekend.

Eric

Orlando, FL

zone 9b/10a

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I'm not expecting much rain from this front. If it rains (drizzles) for more than 10 minutes, I'll be very surprised.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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They already have freeze watches out for Levy county, so it will cool off. I have seen as low as 38F for inland Pasco co. by Fri morning, and possibly sat morning. But after that it will warm up and next week looks beautiful, above avg and sunny. ANY RAIN at this point is welcomed, but yes, I do not see a lot coming our way. It is getting very dry now. :floor:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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As I predicted, .00000000000000001" of rain fell this morning.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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That's great Eric. That means instead of watering tomorrow, you can skip and water Saturday instead.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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WOW! I am honored to report .12" total from the deluge (cough cough) last night. Now, after 4 days of 80'sF, it is 59F with a stiff wind blowing from the W and dewpoints dropping into the 30's. It going to be a chilly night. Jax hit 85F yesterday - all time record high for Jan. FREEZE warning out for tonight and Fri night. HUH??? :yay:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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That's great Eric. That means instead of watering tomorrow, you can skip and water Saturday instead.

Nope, it already dried out today !!!

Eric

Orlando, FL

zone 9b/10a

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WOW! I am honored to report .12" total from the deluge (cough cough) last night. Now, after 4 days of 80'sF, it is 59F with a stiff wind blowing from the W and dewpoints dropping into the 30's. It going to be a chilly night. Jax hit 85F yesterday - all time record high for Jan. FREEZE warning out for tonight and Fri night. HUH??? :yay:

85 on Tues., 84 yesterday and only 62F today. But lows only in the low to mid 40s the next couple of nights. It could be a lot worse.

Eric

Orlando, FL

zone 9b/10a

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I picked up about 1/8th inch total rainfall as a result of 4-5 short light showers. Yesterday it hit 86 degrees here. Today's high topped out around 72 degrees under clear skies and lots of short-wave radiation. My local weatherman is calling for a low of 43 degrees tomorrow morning. That means this is the first January in the plus 15 years I've lived here that I didn't get a damaging freeze or frost. I got frost, but it spared all of my palms, only some leaf damage to totally exposed tibouchina and exposed bananas.

Over the past 15 years my latest damaging frost was on February 16th, 2006. Checking Accuweather's 25-day forecast (taken with a grain of salt, of course) shows no further days of temperature consequence.

If this weather holds my small Cocos nucifera should be able to regrow a full canopy again, as well as my Ravanala madagascariensis.

Cocosnucifera1-31-2013_zpsf356d34d.jpg

Ravanalamadagascariensis1-31-2013_zps9d0

Mad about palms

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I remember in October someone saying it would be a dramatic winter, with killer forecasts...

It seems sometimes it is better to wait and see.

So far, here, 39F minimum...no frost, plenty of rain... :)

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The coconuts in Vero Beach that survived the two bad winters are looking great. Lots of nuts on untrimmed trees. I'm impressed at how rapidly some of them have grown. My two Satakentias are likewise happy and a young Carpentaria popped off a green leaf today, something they do during their growth spurts.

Today's NOAA climate predictions look dry for Florida but above-average, suggesting that there's little chance of a freeze.

Fla. climate center: 100-119 days>85 F
USDA 1990 hardiness zone 9B
Current USDA hardiness zone 10a
4 km inland from Indian River; 27º N (equivalent to Brisbane)

Central Orlando's urban heat island may be warmer than us

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No freeze for NW Florida coastal areas. Neighbor finally asked me to cut his banana's (he had back surgery) not because of cold weather, but because some were starting to turn yellow. Philodendron's, banana's, elephant ear still green around town with some cosmetic damage. Been a great winter up here, and we did get a downpour yesterday. Supposed to get in the 30's tomorrow night...but no freeze, after that....big warmup. Come on March.

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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Overnight prediction: 43F

Actual low: 45.9 at 6:50

Friday night predicted low: 43F. I'm counting the days.

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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41,5F bottomed out, around 630am slow to warm. Only 58F right now and a chilly breeze but YES it could be a lot worse. Once again the cold was blunted east, and this was indeed a cold one. Coming on the heels of more 80's, this could have been bad. Long range shows 80F expected by late week. So, after a few chillier days still to come, another warmup means closer to spring! For me, spring is Feb 20 when the freeze threat is over and only a frost threat remains. The northern snow cover is limited, too. It appears like the far north and lake affect. My tomatoes from August are still producing gobs, and new seedlings have emrged like palm fronds are doing. I can see the yard waking up. My greenhouse is waking up, too. Just a few more weeks...... B)

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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The best winter I've had since 1997 (yes I keep records). The mercury never dipped into the 30'sF which is a rarity even in my beneficial microclimate.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Yes it has. 40F is still the lowest here for the winter so far.

Eric

Orlando, FL

zone 9b/10a

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VERY DRY! Less than .10" yesterday. Fires have started. Drought here we come. Warm and dry for the next week. LOVING IT! :yay:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Someone else say that winter is over so I don't have to. If I say it, we'll be at 35F next week.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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I had a small potted Chorisia/ceiba Speciosa only stay bare for one month before new leaves emerged again sometime in January. Here in Orlando is typically dry for this time of the year, although the lawns have only started to brown up now. Unwatered lawns have stayed green all winter which is a rarity.

There might have been a winter in the 90s where the lowest Orlando got down to was 39 F or so. But I can't remember clearly and right now I don't know where to quickly look up yearly lows

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Don't look now, but next weekend is going to be interesting.......okay, look at your forecasts.

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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It looks as if the 1997 warmth will not be challenged after all. I'm expecting widespread 30's or worse in central Florida.

Randy, we can blame you for jinxing us ;)

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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I see those maritime flags flying next to the Weather/Climate section and I freak out.

Frank

 

Zone 9b pine flatlands

humid/hot summers; dry/cool winters

with yearly freezes

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I am seeing varied forecasts now. Some are saying like 64/44 for Sun, others 58/40 with mid 30's in the colder N and E of Tampa Bay. Others have Mon as a warmup toward 70F. It all depends on this front and the push behind it. It may be a few days of cloudier, chiller weather with some much needed rains. Based on what I see, it will be cold but nothing earth shattering. After another stretch of 80F+ currently, this will FEEL COLD! We need the rain. Badly. I'm seeing stress on all my palms from the dryness and heat. So a Florida winter goes. :yay:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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So far NWS is showing 46F for Sat night and 42 for Sun night for metro Orlando. That is very acceptable. Hopefully it doesn't change.

Eric

Orlando, FL

zone 9b/10a

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7 Day forecast for Daytona shows 39 as a low . My house is generally 2-5 deg warmer than the airport

oriented prediction.

Here is a link to the 3-7 day NWS , which doesn't show temps , but does indicate the general trend of

the event.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=3&fcolor=wbg

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From the NWS Tampa Bay:

"....THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A BRIEF INTRUSION OF BELOW

FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE COLD

HIGH CENTER MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND SETTLES

DIRECTLY OVER NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT. IF SKIES ARE CLEAR...WE

COULD BE LOOKING AT THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON WITH

TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 20S BY MONDAY MORNING

OVER THE NATURE COAST AND NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH.

SINCE THIS IS OUT AT DAY SEVEN...WILL PLAY IT A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE

FOR NOW BUT STILL SHOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES NORTH."

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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This is the local Fox13 Tampa Bay forecast. Not even close to a freeze. So, which is it? I'm going cold and protecting accordingly... :rant:

http://content.foxtvmedia.com/wtvt/maps/WTVT/custom/wxpages/7day.jpg

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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This is the local Fox13 Tampa Bay forecast. Not even close to a freeze. So, which is it? I'm going cold and protecting accordingly... :rant:

We've done this before. It's still a few days away and we know Fox 13 (Paul Dellegatto) will drop the lows 1-2 degrees per day. Then we arrive in the dreaded 34-36F range where it's just cold enough to make you protect stuff but not really cold enough to damage anything. This type of cold in mid February is 100% better than these same temps in December or early January before things have a chance to harden off.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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So far nothing lower than upper 30's F anywhere except for far north and east of Tampa Bay, where it is ALWAYS colder. NWS has 38F as the official low for New Port Richey, 40F for Holiday/Tarpon. Hope that holds because that is no problem. But a shock it will be! :wub:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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I will turn on christmas lights but not cover anything, as 38°F will do about 34°F in my open yard. This should resemble the near freeze event we got back in December. This time though after two cold nights we will really warm up in a hurry. What I wish at least is that the foliage of my cabadae and royal stays green, it would be a shame to see it go brown this late in the winter, when we're almost there.

Frank

 

Zone 9b pine flatlands

humid/hot summers; dry/cool winters

with yearly freezes

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Looks like the Saturday night freeze line might be around Wildwood, according to National Weather Service. Not bad.

Fla. climate center: 100-119 days>85 F
USDA 1990 hardiness zone 9B
Current USDA hardiness zone 10a
4 km inland from Indian River; 27º N (equivalent to Brisbane)

Central Orlando's urban heat island may be warmer than us

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