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New Florida Winter Outlook


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I think the link doesnt work.......... :hmm:

Rusty Bell

Pine Island - the Ex-Pat part of Lee County, Fl , USA

Zone 10b, life in the subs!...except when it isn't....

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It doesn't work.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Just delete the second half of the address, its been duplicated.

-Krishna

Kailua, Oahu HI. Near the beach but dry!

Still have a garden in Zone 9a Inland North Central Florida (Ocala)

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Just remove the right part until the link below reads winter outlook. I do not know how to cut it from the link. It is interesting news for Florida, or is it? Kinda unclear. Maybe.

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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  • 2 weeks later...

I sure hope this blocking high pressure over Greenland

Doesn't mean the dreaded "Greenland Block"

That funnels all that cold air into Florida. The NW winds

On the backside of Sandy are already causing

Unseasonably cool temps for this time of year-- 50

Degrees for Stuart predicted tonight.

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If the NAO is negative (blocking) now, maybe it will be positive (eastern ridge) by December.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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  • 2 weeks later...

Latest look on the CPC has leveled some with equal chances of above or below for Dec/Jan. It has been ridiculously dry here this fall, driest in my 24 years here. One rain since Oct 2nd. Once, 1/2" or less, on Nov 7 and the prediction is zero through the weekend. Lawns are very dry and brown, and I am starting to see the leaf drop on trees. What I made up for in a low elec bill is going the other way on water! :yay:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Paul Delegatto keeps beating the "coming cold" drum in his evening forecasts. As much as I'd like to discount this, he's usually right. The NAO and AO are both forecast to go negative in the coming week so maybe he sees an arctic outbreak on the way. Besides this, the sustained cool weather we've been having makes me think there's a sucker punch coming soon. As much as I'd like to discount myself, I'm usually right too. Just sayin'.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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From the Climate Prediction Center

"8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 12 2012

THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEEK 2 CIRCULATION PATTERN

WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER,

SEVERAL MODELS (06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS (00Z

AND 06Z)) FAVOR RISING 500-HPA HEIGHTS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, AND A SLIGHT

RETROGRESSION OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TODAY'S WEEK

2 BLEND CHART DEPICTS NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE LOWER 48

STATES, A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM JUST TWO DAYS AGO WHEN MOST OF THE CONUS WAS PREDICTED TO HAVE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD AIR TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. "

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Awesome.

Skell's Bells

 

 

Inland Central Florida, 28N, 81W. Humid-subtropical climate with occasional frosts and freezes. Zone 9b.

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Maybe or maybe not scientific but here is what the Farmer's Almanac says:

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2012/08/26/will-winter-return-with-a-vengeance/

The weight of lies will bring you down / And follow you to every town / Cause nothin happens here

That doesn't happen there / So when you run make sure you run / To something and not away from

Cause lies don't need an aero plane / To chase you anywhere

--Avett Bros

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Maybe or maybe not scientific but here is what the Farmer's Almanac says:

http://www.farmersal...th-a-vengeance/

Funny how most of the people who left comments are praying for a cold, snowy winter. We have to out-pray them!

Amen brother!

Skell's Bells

 

 

Inland Central Florida, 28N, 81W. Humid-subtropical climate with occasional frosts and freezes. Zone 9b.

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The CPC is calling for below normal temps 8-14 days out, but not a local forecast calls for anything that is even below normal thru Dec 12th. So, unless there is something not seen, it should stay mild and dry. If you got to the 90 day outlook, is it normal temps (previously they were calling for below normal) and dry (prior called for wet). Me thinks they are confused?????? Anyway, I look out 7 days only, and thru next weekend it is 75-80F days and 55-60F nights. No rain. It is VERY dry now.

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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I place zero confidence in anything that the CPC put out...at best, their maps are ambiguous, since they call for percentages of probabilities, and the "equal chances" means that temps could be normal, or below or above normal...last time i looked that type of non-prediction is called CYA.........

Given the variability of the NAO, any prediction of climate for the eastern CONUS is worthless past 14 days.

Rusty

Rusty Bell

Pine Island - the Ex-Pat part of Lee County, Fl , USA

Zone 10b, life in the subs!...except when it isn't....

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Lets keep that NAO positive...with positive thoughts!

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Look out, next weekend could potentially be very cold.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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Ray its going to be 30 F here tonight first freeze for us , I am building a tent aroundthe Jubeaopsis as it is a bout 16 feet over all and this will cover the triangle palm next to it.

Best regards

Ed

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According to the Climate Prediction Center, all the signs are pointing towards a colder January in Florida. For perspective, December 2010 was very cold but the following January and February of 2011 were warmer than normal. It looks like this winter will be the complete opposite.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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According to TWC, January is to be above avg temp wise and Feb should be the month to watch for. Hmmm whom to believe? This cold has so far been as advertised, 51F here at wakeup with a NW breeze of 7-10mph keeping temps up along the coast. It is Sun AM when the winds die down to worry about. I see it is 15 degree colder 15 miles inland from me. The rains were very nice, too, with nearly an inch from the front.

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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According to the Climate Prediction Center, all the signs are pointing towards a colder January in Florida. For perspective, December 2010 was very cold but the following January and February of 2011 were warmer than normal. It looks like this winter will be the complete opposite.

Perhaps their discussion is different than their graphics, which show EC for the one and three month lead, valid 20 Dec.

Rusty Bell

Pine Island - the Ex-Pat part of Lee County, Fl , USA

Zone 10b, life in the subs!...except when it isn't....

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Predicted low for this a.m: 43F

Actual on the Isabelle Canal: 44.6F

Predicted low for Sunday: 41F

Actual low: ??

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Rusty, that graphic changes daily. Take it with a grain of salt.

All the CPC is saying is the door will be wide open. Whether or not the cold comes through it is unknown.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

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CHILLY night bottomed out at 36F with heavy dew but no frost. It dropped quickly after dark then settled in. Temps were well into the 20's in Hernando and Citrus counties this morning, while St Pete was 54F (uhmmmmmmm)...water or not, that is not real. Last cold for a while. It appears like this will be the up and down winter they called for, just hoping the "down" is not too bad!

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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Predicted low for this am: 41

Actual low on the Isabelle Canal: 42.6

Glad this episode is pretty much over.

Meg

Palms of Victory I shall wear

Cape Coral (It's Just Paradise)
Florida
Zone 10A on the Isabelle Canal
Elevation: 15 feet

I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus' garden in the shade.

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Did not freeze here on the NW Fl. panhandle coastline. It froze a little inland. We did however, have a light frost.

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

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Hard to get overly concerned or perplexed. Just checked our numbers at the "cold hole" West Palm Beach Airport show the Mean Temperature for Dec. 2012 is 73 degrees F. with High 86 F. and low 43 F. Christmas day forecast is High of 81 F. and low 70 F.

Now as we all know, these things can change on a dime. Somehow,however, I just do not get that cold feeling this year in South Florida. May be wrong but just do not feel it....

What you look for is what is looking

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Out here in the deepest inland in Highlands County, low temperatures were all over the place Saturday and Sunday mornings -- depending on exact location.

Saturday was my coldest morning (even though the forecasters said Sunday morning would be the coldest).

Saturday morning I recorded 32 degrees in the open yard, here, 1-1/2 miles N.E. of the town of Lake Placid. Archobold Biological Station, 8 miles south of Lake Placid recorded 23 degrees (they have an official NOAA weather station there). Conversely, my buddy leaving at Lake June Pointe (but not water front) on 3,504 acre Lake June low was 44 degrees. That's a 21 degree spread within an eight mile distance! High ground areas always run close to 10 degrees warmer than at my place (low ground) during radiational cooling events, which Saturday and Sunday was here.

Sunday morning was slightly warmer for me as I bottomed out at 35 degrees. However, I had lots of frost on the roof top and light frost on most of the open grassed areas. My 8 feet high Tobouchina heteromalla got lots of leave damage on top from frost, plus a few other things of little consequence. All my palms did fine.

I will be pleased as punch if this is the worst I see this winter. But I'm not betting the farm on it!

Mad about palms

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I'm bothered that the moist, warm December has a lot of plants up and growing.

Accuweather's outlook for Dec. 30 to Jan. 5 is getting milder. It had looked like a series of near-freezing nights.

Fla. climate center: 100-119 days>85 F
USDA 1990 hardiness zone 9B
Current USDA hardiness zone 10a
4 km inland from Indian River; 27º N (equivalent to Brisbane)

Central Orlando's urban heat island may be warmer than us

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Actually most predictions have looked milder, mostly 45-48F lows at the lowest point. There still is a door open up north for January and now snow cover, so it should get interesting. :yay:

Begonias are my thing. I've been growing and selling them for three decades, nearly two in Tampa Bay. NPR is an bhour N of St Pete, coast

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  • 2 weeks later...

Now, Accuweather's version of the entire month of January gives us above-average temperatures every day of the month.

I suspect they took daily averages, took into account someone's projection that the month would be a bit warmer than average, and adjusted the averages by that much. They don't show any of the inevitable fluctuations.

Fla. climate center: 100-119 days>85 F
USDA 1990 hardiness zone 9B
Current USDA hardiness zone 10a
4 km inland from Indian River; 27º N (equivalent to Brisbane)

Central Orlando's urban heat island may be warmer than us

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I was out today and saw tabebuia (don't know what species, but yellow flowers) in full bloom and pink tabebuia in near full bloom. One of my many Tabebuia chrysotricha trees has about ten yellow blooms on it and lots of swelling buds, and this particular tree startedblooming last week. I've never seen such early blooms. At a friend's house today he showed me one of his Clerodendrum quadrioculare with beginning blooms on it, and these plants don't normally start blooming until late Februar/early March. This warm winter weather is inducing lots of premature spring bloom.

Mad about palms

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So far the lowest we have recorde here at Leu Gardens is 40F. The nearest NWS station is at the Orlando Executive Airport just a couple miles away and they have had 37F.

The gold trumpet trees and pink ones are starting to flower here too.

Eric

Orlando, FL

zone 9b/10a

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My Hong Kong Orchid tree is full of blooms up here in Jacksonville Its so mild Livistona drudei might set seeds this winter --- Best regards Ed

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