jasons Posted January 21, 2011 Report Share Posted January 21, 2011 (edited) Hi all: I wanted to create this thread, with the correct year, as a continuation to the January thread. A few weeks ago, I had posted about the models latching-on to a possible outbreak of very cold arctic air spilling down the plains. Although the models were consistent, they were questionable as the cold air that was needed never really built-up in Canada as depicted. It's very common for the GFS to show some scary scenario 10-14 days away but the cold air needed to make it all happen is lacking. We have had the two fronts come down, and while very chilly, it's nothing record-breaking. Still - it's been below freezing at my house now for about 12 hours so this is not your average run-of-the mill front either. I just point this out to show that while Armageddon did not happen, what has resulted is about what was expected. That is while not anything historical, many of us have seen it quite colder than normal with these two mini-outbreaks. Also, these initial surges have been suspected of 'setting the table' for the real enchilada to come down. Onto the future: The models continue to show doomsday-like scenarios in the 10-14 day time period with the 06z GFS depicting a 1983-1989-ish like event. For example, on February 2nd, it shows a NOON temperature in Houston of 18 degrees F. In Dallas - how about 9 degrees at noon and a low of about zero the next morning? I want to caution again it is very common for the GFS to show scary numbers in the 10-14 days range that never come to fruition. However, caveats aside, this is a situation that we need to watch closely over the next few weeks. I lend more credence to these scenarios now than I have before. Unlike late December, this time the cold air is indeed building-up in Canada and the pattern is conducive for dislodging a chunk of this arctic air and plunge it southward into the US. So, in summary, we all need to keep a close watch for the possibility of severe cold dumping down in early February. The models don't want to let the scenario go, the pattern is there for it, and now the final missing piece - actual cold air - is now building in Canada. Keep a close watch! Edited January 21, 2011 by jasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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