December 2010 thread

[Kailua_Krish]

Krishna, unfortunately we have 2 more days of sub 30Fs in our forecast. Hopefully tonight will be warmer than expected. Good news is that the expected temps have been inching up, and that is a trend that I like.

I honestly dont mind if temps remain above 25, everything I have planted can take that and it will harden them off for the rest of winter. Albeit, they may look bad until spring

-Krishna

[Eric in Orlando]

It was 35F here last night

[spockvr6]

It was 44F at the nursery, and 38.5 at the house. No frost in my yard, but I drove out to the farms near I-75 and saw spotty frost in open fields.

Same at my house (38.5), but WU says 29F for tonight! Wouldnt that be somthin.

[Trópico]

The Big One is coming! December 13th, like some of you predicted.

This is going to make Jan 2010 look like a walk on the beach in Key West.

High of 47°F, low of 24°F predicted for Orlando, almost a week away. Can someone say typo? Let's keep track of this developing situation.

Edited December 8, 2010 by Trópico

[Kailua_Krish]

Krishna, unfortunately we have 2 more days of sub 30Fs in our forecast. Hopefully tonight will be warmer than expected. Good news is that the expected temps have been inching up, and that is a trend that I like.

Jason, what were your lows last night/this morning? Our nearest weather station read 27, and its right down the road from me. Not sure if it is accurate of not but it seems to have been in the past. Tonight/tomorrow morning the lows have been forecast at 31 here. I hope they stay that high.

-Krishna

[Eric in Orlando]

33F here this morning

[Jimbean]

34F Rockledge

30F Port St. John

41F Cocoa Beach

38F Merritt Island

[SubTropicRay]

38F on Tampa's Interbay peninsula. The east coast of the state seems to have gotten it worse this time. The southeast coast was also in the upper 30's and low 40's. WPB airport was colder than me this morning.

[tank]

Krishna, unfortunately we have 2 more days of sub 30Fs in our forecast. Hopefully tonight will be warmer than expected. Good news is that the expected temps have been inching up, and that is a trend that I like.

Jason, what were your lows last night/this morning? Our nearest weather station read 27, and its right down the road from me. Not sure if it is accurate of not but it seems to have been in the past. Tonight/tomorrow morning the lows have been forecast at 31 here. I hope they stay that high.

-Krishna

Low of ~29F last night. No where near the predicted 22F.

Predicted low for Dec. 13 as of today is 15F. Luckily I got my temporary greenhouse erected and filled up.

[epicure3]

Krishna, unfortunately we have 2 more days of sub 30Fs in our forecast. Hopefully tonight will be warmer than expected. Good news is that the expected temps have been inching up, and that is a trend that I like.

Jason, what were your lows last night/this morning? Our nearest weather station read 27, and its right down the road from me. Not sure if it is accurate of not but it seems to have been in the past. Tonight/tomorrow morning the lows have been forecast at 31 here. I hope they stay that high.

-Krishna

Low of ~29F last night. No where near the predicted 22F.

Predicted low for Dec. 13 as of today is 15F. Luckily I got my temporary greenhouse erected and filled up.

NWS does what companies do. They sandbag the numbers. Therefore, everyone is pleasantly surprised when they are higher than predicted.

[BS Man about Palms]

Wow! my past 33-35 doesn't seem so bad now..

[Exotic Life]

Got a really bad cold snap here last week too with temperatures below 0C during the days, but that lows I never seen before since I started with growing exotics. Also at the moment still cold weather with a light frost sometimes, but no so cold like last week. It's hard to say because winter is just started but the start of the winter 2010/2011 looks very cold and that would be the thirth one after eachother, really crazy stuff.

The UK is even more worse with temperatures from -8 till -19C last week, there are still place over there that record every night lows from -10 to -14C. Unbelievble cold for the Big island too! Even places over there that normally got almost no frost has seen temperatures from -4 to -6!

Robbin

[SubTropicRay]

from the Climate Prediction Center

"AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SEWD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST ENHANCED BY

BUILDING UPSTREAM RIDGING AN ARCTIC AIR CRASH PROCEEDS SOUTHWARD

THRU THE PLAINS SAT AND DEEP INTO THE GLFMEX SUN SWEEPING SOUTH

AND EAST TO OFF THE EAST COAST AND LATE SUN AND MON. DEEPENING SFC

LOW MOVING NEWD FROM THE MS VALLEY SAT WILL BE OFF THE NORTHEAST

COAST MONDAY. LARGE AREA OF WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL COVER

THE ERN HALF OF CONUS. THIS WILL THREATEN FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER

FREEZE COLDER AND WINDIER THAN THE RECENT AND CURRENT EVENT WITH

RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID ATLC

REGION INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MON-WED WHILE AVERAGING 15 DEGREES

BELOW THE NORM ARE WAY TOO WARM AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD AREAS TO

STAY AOB FREEZING THRU MUCH THE PERIOD. HIGH WINDS WILL BRING COLD

PENETRATION INTO MORE VULNERABLE STRUCTURES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST

COAST BRINGING A THREAT OF COLD DAMAGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER

THE GULF COAST AND FL AS HTS RISE MID WEEK."

[amazondk]

It is interesting to see the northen hemisphere folks come to life with the cold weather. I may be heading to Montana in January. It has already been really cold there and the forcast is for more. There has already been a lot of snow.

Here on the equator it has been cloudy all day and looking like rain. But, so far only a sprinkle. It is nice and cool for the day time though.

dk

[rozpalm]

from the Climate Prediction Center

"AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SEWD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST ENHANCED BY

BUILDING UPSTREAM RIDGING AN ARCTIC AIR CRASH PROCEEDS SOUTHWARD

THRU THE PLAINS SAT AND DEEP INTO THE GLFMEX SUN SWEEPING SOUTH

AND EAST TO OFF THE EAST COAST AND LATE SUN AND MON. DEEPENING SFC

LOW MOVING NEWD FROM THE MS VALLEY SAT WILL BE OFF THE NORTHEAST

COAST MONDAY. LARGE AREA OF WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL COVER

THE ERN HALF OF CONUS. THIS WILL THREATEN FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER

FREEZE COLDER AND WINDIER THAN THE RECENT AND CURRENT EVENT WITH

RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID ATLC

REGION INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MON-WED WHILE AVERAGING 15 DEGREES

BELOW THE NORM ARE WAY TOO WARM AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD AREAS TO

STAY AOB FREEZING THRU MUCH THE PERIOD. HIGH WINDS WILL BRING COLD

PENETRATION INTO MORE VULNERABLE STRUCTURES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST

COAST BRINGING A THREAT OF COLD DAMAGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER

THE GULF COAST AND FL AS HTS RISE MID WEEK."

I'll take cold and very windy any day to cold and no wind. Last night with no breeze could have been really bad where I live had the temps dropped another 5deg. The dew point was 1deg away from the temp.

[Pez]

I got lucky the last 2 nights (40f each night), but I'm starting to get worried about this next one. I definitely think its going to be worse than this last front, but i do have to question the lows weather.com is predicting. They go from 34 on monday morning, to 25 on tuesday morning, and back up to 35 on Wednesday. I just don't see that drastic of correction in 24hrs. ?? NOAA, who usually comes closer to my actual temps, has my area at 32 for tuesday morning and 39 wednesday. I think weather.com gives one forecast for a large area, while NOAA attempts to break down individual microclimates. ?? I guess we will find out in a few days.

[rozpalm]

I got lucky the last 2 nights (40f each night), but I'm starting to get worried about this next one. I definitely think its going to be worse than this last front, but i do have to question the lows weather.com is predicting. They go from 34 on monday morning, to 25 on tuesday morning, and back up to 35 on Wednesday. I just don't see that drastic of correction in 24hrs. ?? NOAA, who usually comes closer to my actual temps, has my area at 32 for tuesday morning and 39 wednesday. I think weather.com gives one forecast for a large area, while NOAA attempts to break down individual microclimates. ?? I guess we will find out in a few days.

You sound like you are shopping for the most favorable forecast. I actually do the same thing too. I have found that NOAA will almost always be the most conservative. I think they do that mostly becuase so many businesses rely on their forecast and they would rather have people over protect then under protect. I think the most accurate forecast is wunderground which I think takes the general forecast for your local (probably form NOAA) and then adjusts it to your specific area based on the closest PWS. So far in the last two days, my actual temps were 7deg warmer then the NOAA forecast. I hope this trend holds up.

[Trópico]

We probably hit 32°F here with moderate frost. Papaya leaves are boiled, bananas are ready for pasteles. All my inground palms are fine.

[SubTropicRay]

Much better news this morning. This from NWS Melbourne, Florida

"GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM TRACK AND

HIGH AMPLITUDE OF ITS ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROF...THOUGH GFS IS A

LITTLE FASTER AN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW. BOTH MODELS...

HOWEVER...HAVE MADE A LARGE SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COLD AIR OUTBREAK

THAT THEY WERE SUGGESTING 24HRS AGO. THE 09/00Z RUNS NOW INDICATE

THE H85 0C ISOTHERM NO FURTHER S THAN THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WHEREAS

THE 08/00Z RUNS TOOK IT CLEAR DOWN TO THE FL KEYS. CORRESPONDING

MEX MOS TEMPS HAVE WARMED AROUND 10F DEG MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THE

MODELS ARE KEYING ON A STRONG SRN JET OVER FL (MAX WINDS +140KTS BY

12Z MON) THAT PUSHES THE BASE OF THE TROF MORE EWD THAN PREV MODEL

RUNS...THUS PREVENTING THE CRUX OF THE COLD AIR TO ADVECT MUCH

FURTHER S THAN THE FL PANHANDLE."

[redant]

Hopefully this new run is correct, I check 4 diff sites for my area, 3 are in the 39 to 43 low range for Tues morn, TWC still has a devastating low of 27

Edited December 9, 2010 by redant

[spockvr6]

Hopefully this new run is correct, I check 4 diff sites for my area, 3 are in the 39 to 43 low range for Tues morn, TWC still has a devastating low of 27

Same here. It looks like a 14F differential between what NWS is forecasting and what WC is forecasting!

[SubTropicRay]

Where are you guys looking?? Weather Channel hasn't forecasted anything lower than 33F for my zipcode all week. I know that Florida's east coast was going to get the brunt of cold but never saw 20's for south Florida. I just checked WC and their lowest low for WPB is 37F.

[redant]

Where are you guys looking?? Weather Channel hasn't forecasted anything lower than 33F for my zipcode all week. I know that Florida's east coast was going to get the brunt of cold but never saw 20's for south Florida.

Well they are up to 33 now, just put in zipcode 33458, thats what I look at.

[spockvr6]

As of now, weather channel says 29F and 32F for Tarpon Springs (34689) for Mon and Tues nights. NWS says 43 and 47F those same two nights!

[bubba]

Does anybody know how long this Greenland Block feature is supposed to last? Any good websites you use for winter predictions and what is going on in Artic that could effect us with frozen tundra? I know Ray said Bastardi predicted Dec. cold followed by warm up. I know Larry is on it. We got choppers crashing out in the Glades in low areas away from the Lake.

It is strange that the West coast seems warmer in some recent Winters. However,I would point out that Tampa airport has little to do with South Tampa or St. Pete.as it relates to temperatures. The same is true with PBI, which is a cold hole and does not represent the totality of this area.I have yet to see any exploding coconuts.

I do believe our climate is cyclical and we could be watching a shift from a warmer period to a cooler period. I read something regarding the Pacific Decadel Occillation that shows this possibility.Any information and sources would be greatly appreciated.

[SubTropicRay]

Bubba, I've been looking for something like that for a week or so with no success. The Climate Prediction Center mentions the omega block in their discussion constantly and features plots that show a negative North American Oscillation (NAO) through Christmas. Beyond that, there's nothing outside of meteorological lingo that the common-folk like you or I can understand. All I did know is that "the H85 0C ISOTHERM clears the peninsula and into the Florida straits" sounded really, really bad.

[PalmatierMeg]

Just two days ago I was seeing a low of 30F for next Tuesday a.m. Last night prediction for that morning had risen to 36. If so, I'll take it. Sounds like most of next week will be 15-20 degress below normal, just like the past 2 weeks. But Christmas week is supposed to be closer to "normal", i.e. 50s & 70s. Unless, of course, current conditions are the new normal.

[Eric in Orlando]

NWS had been saying 31/32F Mon for here when other doomsday sites were saying 23/24F. Now everyone has raised it to low 30s. Accuweather has gone from one extreme to the other. They were saying 23 now they say 36 which is the warmest forecast.

Guess the chicken bones rolled the other way on this mornings toss. NWS is always the most accurate for this location.

[tank]

NWS had been saying 31/32F Mon for here when other doomsday sites were saying 23/24F. Now everyone has raised it to low 30s. Accuweather has gone from one extreme to the other. They were saying 23 now they say 36 which is the warmest forecast.

Guess the chicken bones rolled the other way on this mornings toss. NWS is always the most accurate for this location.

Accuweather seem to rely on very unreliable chicken bones for my area.

[Tyrone]

Been a very cool Dec so far. Averaging 23C vs 29C and 14.1C vs 16.1C at night. This is like early cool Nov weather which we didn't get because it was hot Jan weather in Nov. Back up to mid thirties on Sunday though, then gradually coming back to more normal weather for Dec. I'm still wondering whether we're going to get that record rainfall in January that eldersweather are predicting.

Tyrone

[monkeyranch]

34F Rockledge

30F Port St. John

41F Cocoa Beach

38F Merritt Island

Stupid fast cooling landmass! How many palms can I grow on a boat? Anyone try that yet? Just look at all that warm water! I guess the Bahamas are sort of boat like.

Edited December 10, 2010 by monkeyranch

[Alicehunter2000]

Thank goodness for coastal warmth. A noticable difference between less than 5 miles from the coast and those further inland. It still feels really cold and its not letting up. This will be our 4th night of below freezing temps. Upper 20's forcasted again tonight. Sure hope the artic air mass next week does push our temps lower than 25 degrees up here....don't know what else can be done for my bigger inground Bizzies other than the Christmas light/bed sheet snuggies around the growing point. I'm starting to wonder if it is worth the effort anymore to try and grow marginal stuff. May have to stick to hybrids and such.

[Erik]

I'll confess to a bit of guilty pleasure in seeing the worst of this cold bump around me and hit you folks. As I type this, it is colder in Tallahassee than Tulsa! (Note: the two towns share the same name, just spelled differently.)

I'll see -8 oC or so Sunday and Monday mornings, however, which should make us even. I'll spend Saturday finishing winter protection (hey, it isn't even winter yet! I'm not late!). --Erik

[PalmatierMeg]

Low was 47 this morning on the Isabelle Canal - heat wave! Weekend should be wonderful. But the paper has dropped minimums overnight Mon & Tues to 34. I'm getting tired of splitting degrees - I mean hairs.

[SubTropicRay]

Things could be much worse right?!

STATE FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND

358 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2010 /258 AM MST FRI DEC 10 2010/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING WEST AND NORTH

CENTRAL...AND ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST AND THE FAR NORTH THIS

AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE. HIGHS 5 NORTHEAST TO THE

LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST.

.TONIGHT...SNOW ENDING FROM THE WEST. BLOWING SNOW SOUTH CENTRAL

AND SOUTHEAST. LOWS 15 BELOW NORTHWEST TO AROUND ZERO SOUTHEAST.

WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 30 BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHEAST

TO AROUND 15 ABOVE SOUTHWEST. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 30 BELOW IN THE

MORNING.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEST AND

CENTRAL. LOWS 20 BELOW NORTHEAST TO ZERO SOUTHWEST. HIGHS 5 BELOW

NORTHEAST TO 25 ABOVE SOUTHWEST.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. LOWS 20

BELOW NORTHEAST TO 10 ABOVE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS AROUND ZERO NORTHEAST

TO AROUND 30 SOUTHWEST

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN

AND SNOW. LOWS 10 BELOW NORTHEAST TO 20 ABOVE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS 10

NORTHEAST TO 35 SOUTHWEST.

[Walter John]

We had two clear sunny days in a row, so I took the afternoon off work and mowed the grass even though parts of the yard were a little sloppy, left some dark tyre marks, so be it. Now it's Saturday and guess what, no sun, and looks like it's going to rain yet again.

Still, most of the palms are loving it.

[Trópico]

Why all the yelling, forecasters? Tell me the bad news in a sweet voice...

[philinsydney]

The last few days have been really muggy, but this morning the air had a nice light, dry quality as the wind turned northwesterly. All the humidity is travelling up towards Wal and Daryl.

[SubTropicRay]

Sorry Frank. It's a cut and paste from the NWS in North Dakota.

[Takil-Explorer]

Finnely a bit of a proper winter down there! Maybe some snow for Christmass in Miami!

Dreaming of a white...

Alexander