Freeze warning

[ghar41]

Ok..even though I am hoping for the best....it's time we look at preparing for the next three nights especially Monday night and early morning Tuesday the 18th and 19th, here in California.

The information I am recieving is expecting a low of 25 F.

[elHoagie]

It was completely clear almost all night here, and the temperature is 2C right now at 6:15AM.  For the first time all year I have frost on my exposed car, but just dew on even the most exposed plants...  At least in my area, the forecast is for slightly warmer mornings ahead.

[gsn]

Guys I can feel for you and the freeze warning.

We haven't had one yet here in central Florida.

I do have a question though.

I have only been on the board about 4 or 5 months.But in that time I have seen you south cali guys talking about things that would grow there that we couldn't  here in central Florida. I got the impression it never froze? Did I misunderstand?

I know it is a more mediteranian climate and you have lower average temps durning the winter,but that it hardly if ever froze there?

You had me wanting to move to southern Californian,or south Florida.

Here in Central Florida our winters are usually quite mild, with probably at least a 10- 15 degree warmer average temp in the winter.Having said that we worry every year about those one or two,or three nights durning the winter ,when everything can be destroyed by an artic front,pushing into the area.

Anyway I'm really curious is this an exceptionally cold winter for you guys this year?

Good luck hope everything pulls through!

[BS Man about Palms]

Scott,

There is a wide variance in topography and temps here. But many places coastal and several inland microclimates that escape freezes. At my place in Oceanside, I have seen frost on the ground twice in the last 11 years.   The (southern California weather) reports you are reading cover an area roughly 150 miles high and 200 miles wide. The temps in there can vary as much as 20 degrees on the same day and sun, clouds, etc.   Some concern from some is not a worry to others. (other than sympathy)

Bill

[BS Man about Palms]

Oh yes Scott, I just noted Glenn is in Modesto, which I think is roughly in the middle of the state, about 300 miles north of San Diego.

[elHoagie]

Scott,

Like BS mentioned, there are a lot of microclimates around here.  My climate is one of the best for summer heat, and probably about average for winter cold.  This is my fifth winter in this area of LA, and the low during that time has been about 0.5C (33F).  I usually have frost on the windshield of my car a few times each winter, but I've never had any frost on the ground or on the leaves of any of my plants and I've never seen any freeze damage to any leaves.  Just to show the variation, there are places near downtown LA that haven't dropped below 5C (40F) during these same five years, and there are some places in the San Fernando Valley that have probably dropped to -4C (25F).

Jack

[BobbyinNY]

This winter has been VERY weird here so far to say the least... Temps for the past week haven't dropped below 35f here for a low and have been in the mid 50's to around 60f for the last few days with even warmer temps predicted. The coldest so far in my yard has been 22f - a few weeks ago.. If you guys is cali are getting those temps now, I'm sure they're on their way here.  Unfortunately, we still have Jan/Feb to get through.... February here can be brutally cold....

[gsn]

BSMAN,

Thanks for the info.

Being near the coast or a large body of water helps keep the temp up here also.But if a massive artic front makes its way here it isn't the difference between freezzing and not freezing usually!

(elHoagie @ Dec. 17 2006,10:48)

QUOTE

Scott,

 Just to show the variation, there are places near downtown LA that haven't dropped below 5C (40F) during these same five years, and there are some places in the San Fernando Valley that have probably dropped to -4C (25F).

Jack

Jack,

Just curious ,how far apart in miles would these two areas be?

[Exotic Life]

Good luck with the freezing ...

Also december still here very "warm" and the don't predicted frost for the next week ... after that week the expect higher tempetures

But like bobby say februari to come, and the last two winters was the beginning of march the coldest times in the winter ...

[ghar41]

(gsn @ Dec. 17 2006,09:41)

QUOTE

Guys I can feel for you and the freeze warning.

We haven't had one yet here in central Florida.

I do have a question though.

I have only been on the board about 4 or 5 months.But in that time I have seen you south cali guys talking about things that would grow there that we couldn't  here in central Florida. I got the impression it never froze? Did I misunderstand?

I know it is a more mediteranian climate and you have lower average temps durning the winter,but that it hardly if ever froze there?

You had me wanting to move to southern Californian,or south Florida.

Here in Central Florida our winters are usually quite mild, with probably at least a 10- 15 degree warmer average temp in the winter.Having said that we worry every year about those one or two,or three nights durning the winter ,when everything can be destroyed by an artic front,pushing into the area.

California is diverse to say the least.  3 hours east of here it was minus 27 F up near Lake Tahoe but parts of San Diego barely went below freezing, if at all, during the great freeze of 1990.  We are suseptible to air masses coming from due North.

There are literally hundreds of different climates in this state.   The home of Death Valley and Mt. Whitney.

Thing is this, other than the Sierra Nevada mountains and the deserts,  CA tends to be largely influenced by the Pacific Ocean.  

From what I understand, Florida with the exception of South Florida and points south, is suseptible to cold air masses coming down from Canada through the midwest.  Does this sound correct?

I can tell you this, parts of Southern California, south of Point Conception, are as mild as anywhere in the continental US.  So there really is no comparison between San Diego (esp. coastal) and say, Orlando or Jacksonville.

Upper and Central Florida sounds alot like a humid version of our climate here in the dry central valley.  The temperature lows are VERY similar although I have seen it written here somewhere that Florida warms faster during the day.

[NBTX11]

(ghar41 @ Dec. 17 2006,13:06)

QUOTE

I can tell you this, parts of Southern California, south of Point Conception, are as mild as anywhere in the continental US.  So there really is no comparison between San Diego (esp. coastal) and say, Orlando or Jacksonville.

For those of you SoCalians who have never lived in central FL, I don't think you can appriciate just how warm and mild it is in the winter in Orlando "overall".  Orlando "overall" is warmer than SD or LA in the winter or ANY part of coastal Cal, BUT is probably a lit more prone to the 1 or 2 artic blasts than may cause it to drop down to freezing. On the other hand an 80 hi/60 lo day is very common in mid winter.  Much more so than Cal.  And by March the average high is back in the 80s, where as So Cal is struggling to get out of the 60s in Feb/Mar, usually.  My 2 cents from having lived in Central FL

[gsn]

(ghar41 @ Dec. 17 2006,13:06)

QUOTE

From what I understand, Florida with the exception of South Florida and points south, is suseptible to cold air masses coming down from Canada through the midwest.  Does this sound correct?

I can tell you this, parts of Southern California, south of Point Conception, are as mild as anywhere in the continental US.  So there really is no comparison between San Diego (esp. coastal) and say, Orlando or Jacksonville.

Glenn,

Syersj pretty much got it right as far as central Florida is concerned. Our average winter temps on the whole  are considerable warmer than southern california, as I mentioned in my first post. We just have to worry about those 2 or 3 times a winter where an artic front doesn't stall before it gets to central Florida.

I know there are a lot of different climates in california,you only have to drive about 2 hours basically due east of LA and you can go snow skiing.(maybe a little ene)

I understand that california is a long state and covers a lot of latitudes.However Florida is pretty long too.From Pensacola to Miami is 675 miles,granted that isn't a straight line north to south. However Jacksonville to Miami is 351 miles due south,thus every mile is a change in latitude.

Here it is all about latitude,with the exception of coastal influence or large bodies of water.Having said that if you get very far away from the coast either Gulf of Mexico,or the Atlantic,then it's all about latitude,as inland south Florida can get pretty darn cold as well as central florida.

What I really don't understand about california and florida is coastal influence. The Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic are considerably warmer  year round little lone in the winter.But it seems you guys get more of an increased temp effect than we do,or maybe the fronts come more from the west, than the  north,northwest or artic air?  You would think Florida being a penisula, that we would get more benifit from the water surrounding us ,than you guys would from just the cold Pacific?

What I really don't get is guys growing palms in San Francisco,as I have been there in July and needed a jacket because it was in the 50's!  

Florida is pretty much flat we do have some elevation ,above sea level ,but not much.

We kinda have 3 zones as far as palms are concerned,north florida,which has already frozen,central florida,which hasn't yet this year,and south florida where it hardly ever freezes. We can grow palms that north florida can't, and south florida can grow palm we can't here in central florida.

Of course as in california there are areas inbetween those distinct zones.

To sum it all up here in central florida, if we could escape maybe 2 or 3 days every winter,some winters none,but there is always that risk of a freeze,even a HARD freeze here. If that were not the case there wouldn't be a lot of palms that south florida can grow that we can't!

It's not a cumulative cold effect here that is the problem ,like you seem to have  in california, even where it doesn't freeze!

[ghar41]

(gsn @ Dec. 17 2006,15:52)

QUOTE

Here it is all about latitude,with the exception of coastal influence or large bodies of water.Having said that if you get very far away from the coast either Gulf of Mexico,or the Atlantic,then it's all about latitude,as inland south Florida can get pretty darn cold as well as central florida.

What I really don't understand about california and florida is coastal influence. The Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic are considerably warmer  year round little lone in the winter.But it seems you guys get more of an increased temp effect than we do,or maybe the fronts come more from the west, than the  north,northwest or artic air?  You would think Florida being a penisula, that we would get more benifit from the water surrounding us ,than you guys would from just the cold Pacific?

What I really don't get is guys growing palms in San Francisco,as I have been there in July and needed a jacket because it was in the 50's!  

Great responses all.  

Pacific ocean influence here is based on two separate movements of water.  Point Concepcion, (near Lompoc California) separates North and South.  North of this Point, water and air masses are dominated from Pacific water coming down from the North thus bringing colder air.

South of the Point, water and air movement is dominated by Pacific water coming from the south thus bringing warmer air from Mexico and points South.

San Francisco, it's own microclimate.  Very unique.  It is an excellent climate for Lord Howe Island Palms because it rarely gets much over 85 F and rarely goes below freezing.  July and January can have similar temps!  It is an incredible city...I highly recommend visiting for those who have never been.

Get this....SF is about 75 miles west of Modesto, and I had three days of 111 F this past summer!

[Scott]

Early this AM, frost covered everything. But so far, the plants seem okay.... Keeping an eye on the weather though.

[Don Little]

gsn, I'm located about 40 miles inland.  In my location we are not as directly influenced by marine air than those closer to the coast.  That causes greater temperature swings.  Our warmest two months we average 95 degrees with about 15 plus days over 100F and the coldest two months we average 45 and 44.  We generaly get a few frosts per year but in most years only dips into the  30's 10-12 times per year and low 30's even less,  The coldest part of my yard has seen 30's 4 times this year with the coldest being last night at 36.7 but the warmest part of my yard has seen 30's only once and it was 39.7F at that.  Topography of the land also plays a role in that So Cal also has quite a few Mountains and hills which play in the favor of some and hurts others as far as cold is concerned.

[happ]

(Scott @ Dec. 17 2006,18:44)

QUOTE

Early this AM, frost covered everything. But so far, the plants seem okay.... Keeping an eye on the weather though.

Good luck Scott    If you had frost this morning it is likely that you will experience the same tomorrow AM unless the wind kicks in.  Sometimes the signals of frost damage appear several days after the event  

Interesting discussion & illustrates the diversity of climates favorable for palms.

Much has been clearly articulated on micro-climates.  My decision to go "tropical" coincided will the discovery of  south-facing hillside climate/USDA 11 at 34N. Same latitude of Dallas/Birmingham/Atlanta/Myrtle Beach.  

In SoCal the LA foothills are considered as safe as San Diego bay [over 100 miles south].  The unusual circumstance of an east/west mountain range facilitates  the import of Pacific or continental air interaction.  Nocturnal/diurnal descending off-short air flow is more pronounced in LA/Orange Co than in San Diego due to topography.

Within the city of Los Angeles there were pockets of frost and also minimums above 50F this morning.

One major factor that separates SoCal from Florida/south Texas/ : the number of nights well-above freezing but in the 40's is considerable in coastal California unlike usually balmy Tampa/Orlando/Brownsville.  

The intensity of this cold outbreak is strong yet December is the coldest month/mean for many locations since the rain season is more likely established in Jan/Feb

San Francisco : 53/43

LA : 59/45

San Diego : 58/48

[BS Man about Palms]

(syersj @ Dec. 17 2006,11:36)

QUOTE

(ghar41 @ Dec. 17 2006,13:06)

QUOTE

I can tell you this, parts of Southern California, south of Point Conception, are as mild as anywhere in the continental US.  So there really is no comparison between San Diego (esp. coastal) and say, Orlando or Jacksonville.

For those of you SoCalians who have never lived in central FL, I don't think you can appriciate just how warm and mild it is in the winter in Orlando "overall".  Orlando "overall" is warmer than SD or LA in the winter or ANY part of coastal Cal, BUT is probably a lit more prone to the 1 or 2 artic blasts than may cause it to drop down to freezing. On the other hand an 80 hi/60 lo day is very common in mid winter.  Much more so than Cal.  And by March the average high is back in the 80s, where as So Cal is struggling to get out of the 60s in Feb/Mar, usually.  My 2 cents from having lived in Central FL

I was born in Clearwater and lived in Fla for 6 years and went back on vacations alot till age 20 or so.  Have lived here in San Diego county for 22 years now.  (the rest was in Colorado) The temps between the places are a lot closer than people are saying.

I've said for some time now that So Cal is a better place to live for "people" comfort, but I would give a tiny edge to Fl for plants only due to the fact it "warms up" year round.  Its very rare we don't hit 65 at least every couple days, but we can go weeks and never hit 80 degrees (coastal)

But I don't know of Coastal SD EVER having a hard freeze!

I also remember when I moved here how strange it was to have the weather forecaster give FOUR temperatures for the county. Coastal, Inland, Mountains, Desert all in one county.

[Dypsisdean]

"but we can go weeks and never hit 80 degrees (coastal)"

Bill, I would say coastal SoCal goes months every year without hitting 80.

[BS Man about Palms]

(Dypsisdean @ Dec. 17 2006,17:43)

QUOTE

"but we can go weeks and never hit 80 degrees (coastal)"

Bill, I would say coastal SoCal goes months every year without hitting 80.

Actually Dean, I think I have to agree with that statement more than mine!..

I think I was thinking more along the lines of "close to", not "over"....

[NBTX11]

Average Temperature Comparison (from Yahoo Weather):

                   Orlando                 LA                        San Diego

November  79.0° F 59.0°   73.0° F 53.0° F     70.0° F 54.0° F

December  73.0° F 53.0°   69.0° F 48.0° F     66.0° F 49.0° F

January      72.0° F 50.0°  68.0° F 48.0° F      66.0° F 50.0° F

February    74.0° F 51.0°  70.0° F 50.0° F      66.0° F 52.0° F

March         79.0° F 56.0°  70.0° F 52.0° F     66.0° F 54.0° F

April           83.0° F 60.0°   73.0° F 54.0° F     69.0° F 56.0° F

Bottom line is Orlando is quite a bit warmer in every month, and MUCH warmer in Feb - April time frame, as much as 10-15 degrees warmer.  If it weren't for the occasional artic fronts going through Central FL, they wouldn't even be in the same ball park.

[spockvr6]

(gsn @ Dec. 17 2006,15:52)

QUOTE

Syersj pretty much got it right as far as central Florida is concerned. Our average winter temps on the whole  are considerable warmer than southern california, as I mentioned in my first post. We just have to worry about those 2 or 3 times a winter where an artic front doesn't stall before it gets to central Florida.

High temps comparison between San Diego and Tarpon Springs, FL.....no comparison really.

WHOOPS!  Record lows....even things out a bit...and then some  

[NBTX11]

It has gotten down to 19F in Tarpon Springs before?!  I knew TIA airport had, but I though the coast would have stayed in the 20s

[spockvr6]

(syersj @ Dec. 17 2006,21:32)

QUOTE

It has gotten down to 19F in Tarpon Springs before?!  I knew TIA airport had, but I though the coast would have stayed in the 20s

Yes...the SERCC data shows that in Dec 1962 and Jan 1981, 19F was logged.

I do not doubt the 1962 data.....all time records seem to have been set nearly everywhere that year.

The Jan 1981 low of 19F seems a bit suspicious (but not unbelievable) as the Tampa AP logged 22F and St. Petersburg only dropped to 31F.

The other bad freezes (1983, 1985, 1989) all have lows in the 20's (albeit low 20's for the very bad 1983 cold snap).

The Tarpon Springs station is not right on the coast, and this is also fairly far north, so the data tracks fairly close to the Tampa AP over the long run.

Except with the likely exception of terribly windy events, the coastal areas just a mile or so west of this station stay about 4-5F warmer (maybe more, but Ive only watched the numbers closely for a few years).  Theres also a marked change in foliage as one drives this mile or so west.

But, the official data, since the 1940's, has been from the station which is charted above.

[Palmy]

Im expecting in the mid 20's. They keep  saying about 29F for tonight. But when I see what the temp is now at 7:30, its 35F, I expect it to go atleast 10 degrees lower. Tomorrow night is suppose to be even colder. This will be the 4th night we have had under 20 this fall/winter season.

[tropicalb]

40F under my patio cover outside right now @ 9:27pm...just moved all the plants that were exposed underneath (including two LARGE plumerias).

Hoping for the best over the next few nights...it's gonna REALLY get cold at my dad's place, and those plants are either gonna make it or not....nothing i can do over there.

[ghar41]

Great responses.  N and C Florida is warmer but subject to winter blasts not seen in So. Calif.  Both truly excellent places to start a palm garden tho.

Although the lows are similar to my area here in the central valley, we are certainly separated by the warm temperatures seen in Florida winters.

We are well known for 3-5 months of consistent 35-45 F nightime temps, with 50ish daytimes every winter.  These "chilling hours" are essential to the fruit and nut industry that defines our area.  Along with my palms and cycads I am growing peaches, pistachio nuts, almonds and apples.

[Scott]

(happ @ Dec. 17 2006,17:17)

QUOTE

(Scott @ Dec. 17 2006,18:44)

QUOTE

Early this AM, frost covered everything. But so far, the plants seem okay.... Keeping an eye on the weather though.

Good luck Scott    If you had frost this morning it is likely that you will experience the same tomorrow AM unless the wind kicks in.  Sometimes the signals of frost damage appear several days after the event  

Thanks Happ! I've put stuff under overhangs, and am hoping for the best.

Right now, there is a light breeze and I'm hoping it'll keep things dry.

Now, just after 11PM it's 41F and dropping. The maximum wind in the last hour was 12MPH. But the chill goes right to your bones  ....   (teeth chattering)

[SubTropicRay]

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your perspective, things have changed a bit in the era of central Florida urbanization.  Winter blasts of citrus belt altering consequence, have thankfully not visited here in 17 years.  That's a strecth not seen in 120 years of NWS record keeping.  Coincidence?  Maybe.

[spockvr6]

(Ray @ Tampa,Dec. 18 2006,08:11)

QUOTE

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your perspective, things have changed a bit in the era of central Florida urbanization.  Winter blasts of citrus belt altering consequence, have thankfully not visited here in 17 years.  That's a strecth not seen in 120 years of NWS record keeping.  Coincidence?  Maybe.

Ray-

You hit on something that has always been, in my mind, the limiting factor when looking at what is "normal" climate for an area.  The data periods are just too short.  This makes it hard to know what the "normal" cycle might be and what we should expect going forward (since our look back is not really long enough).

In any case, since the data for Albert Whitted AP in St. Pete (undoubtably the warmest official station in the area) was readily available back to 1948, I plotted the absolute lows for each year since then and got the below.  Its hard with such a small data sample to really see whats going on......but every trendline type Ive tried to fit to the data shows a small, but general, increase in the absolute low.  The average over the 59 years shown here is 35.25F.

[BS Man about Palms]

(syersj @ Dec. 17 2006,18:22)

QUOTE

Average Temperature Comparison (from Yahoo Weather):

                   Orlando                 LA                        San Diego

November  79.0° F 59.0°   73.0° F 53.0° F     70.0° F 54.0° F

December  73.0° F 53.0°   69.0° F 48.0° F     66.0° F 49.0° F

January      72.0° F 50.0°  68.0° F 48.0° F      66.0° F 50.0° F

February    74.0° F 51.0°  70.0° F 50.0° F      66.0° F 52.0° F

March         79.0° F 56.0°  70.0° F 52.0° F     66.0° F 54.0° F

April           83.0° F 60.0°   73.0° F 54.0° F     69.0° F 56.0° F

Bottom line is Orlando is quite a bit warmer in every month, and MUCH warmer in Feb - April time frame, as much as 10-15 degrees warmer.  If it weren't for the occasional artic fronts going through Central FL, they wouldn't even be in the same ball park.

Sorry Jim,

I know you can only go by data you can find on the internet, but I drive a lot of San Diego county year round and I know its warmer than the statistics will show.  A lot of that is the measuring point being so near the water in the bay. That keeps the lows constant but the highs don't rise much either.  I can think of several spots within a mile or at the most 3 , that would be within 1 degree on the low and yet add 3-4 degrees on the high.  

Either way both great places.

[spockvr6]

(BS, Man about Palms @ Dec. 18 2006,09:49)

QUOTE

I know you can only go by data you can find on the internet, but I drive a lot of San Diego county year round and I know its warmer than the statistics will show.  A lot of that is the measuring point being so near the water in the bay. That keeps the lows constant but the highs don't rise much either.  I can think of several spots within a mile or at the most 3 , that would be within 1 degree on the low and yet add 3-4 degrees on the high.  

Either way both great places.

I think the same holds true around here as well.  There are only so many "official" stations and the climate varies quite a bit in short distances sometimes.

[STEVE IN SO CAL]

29f in the lower field, 40f by the pool Mon a/m 0630

[NBTX11]

(BS @ Man about Palms,Dec. 18 2006,09:49)

QUOTE

(syersj @ Dec. 17 2006,18:22)

QUOTE

Average Temperature Comparison (from Yahoo Weather):

                   Orlando                 LA                        San Diego

November  79.0° F 59.0°   73.0° F 53.0° F     70.0° F 54.0° F

December  73.0° F 53.0°   69.0° F 48.0° F     66.0° F 49.0° F

January      72.0° F 50.0°  68.0° F 48.0° F      66.0° F 50.0° F

February    74.0° F 51.0°  70.0° F 50.0° F      66.0° F 52.0° F

March         79.0° F 56.0°  70.0° F 52.0° F     66.0° F 54.0° F

April           83.0° F 60.0°   73.0° F 54.0° F     69.0° F 56.0° F

Bottom line is Orlando is quite a bit warmer in every month, and MUCH warmer in Feb - April time frame, as much as 10-15 degrees warmer.  If it weren't for the occasional artic fronts going through Central FL, they wouldn't even be in the same ball park.

Sorry Jim,

I know you can only go by data you can find on the internet, but I drive a lot of San Diego county year round and I know its warmer than the statistics will show.  A lot of that is the measuring point being so near the water in the bay. That keeps the lows constant but the highs don't rise much either.  I can think of several spots within a mile or at the most 3 , that would be within 1 degree on the low and yet add 3-4 degrees on the high.  

Either way both great places.

Yeah, I actually thought that 66F seemed kind of cool for SD, not being from or having lived there.  I'm sure inland locations are frequently above 70F (I assume).  Don't you guys have frequent fog or a marine layer near the coast, when you go a couple miles inland it might be sunny and warmer?  Or is that just during the May Grey, June Gloom time frame.

[doubravsky]

Got down to 31 in Riverside... no frost, as the winds must have kicked in sometime during thenight.

[Palmhut1]

32 in Vista with frost.  

[elHoagie]

3C (38F) and no frost this morning in Altadena...

[epicure3]

39.7 on one thermometer and 40 on the other. Definitely felt cold.....brrrrrrr.....

[Cristóbal]

this morning i have low temperature of 45.4 F in tijuana. for where i live it does not go much more cold then this. now 11:25 am its 59.6 F still very cold its not very comon to be less then 60 F on any day in this time of the day

[Hollywood Palms]

42 in the Fabulous Hollywood Hills. It was 50 before 9:00a.m.

David

[MattyB]

35F, no frost in the L.G.