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"California Storms to be Unrelenting"


happ

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Normally I don't post weather concerns on the main forum but believe all California gardeners should take measures to protect palms from wind damage. An incredible amount of rainfall will occur this week like we haven't experience since 2005. Our normal "yearly" rainfall totals may be reached in this coming week. :unsure:

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEK

FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A STORMY PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT

WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOST OF NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE

FOLLOWING WEEK.

A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN

THAT WILL DRIVE A SERIES OF MOISTURE LADEN STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN

CALIFORNIA. ONCE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BEGINS MONDAY...IT WILL

LIKELY CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL SLOPES UNABATED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK

DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.

BASED ON HISTORIC PATTERNS...THIS WEEK-LONG EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL

TO GENERATE RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...TO 15 TO 25

INCHES ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

THE STRENGTH OF THE JET STREAM DRIVING THESE STORMS IS OVER 200 MPH

AND THE STORMS THEMSELVES WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY ONSHORE IN QUICK

SUCCESSION.

AS A RESULT THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT

WEEK. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS GALE FORCE OR HIGHER WINDS ARE

EXPECTED. OVER LAND...DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE

ARRIVAL OF EACH STORM. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE

FOR THE COASTS AND VALLEYS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MAY

HAVE GUSTS 60 MPH OR HIGHER.

SHOULD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEVELOP AS FORECAST...UNREGULATED REACHES

OF MAINSTREAM RIVERS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT FLOW BY THE END

OF THE WEEK. HEAVY FLOWS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE

RIVERS ONCE UNDERGROUND AQUIFERS FILL. IT HAS BEEN SEVERAL YEARS

SINCE HEAVY FLOWS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THESE RIVERS...SO LOCAL

INTERESTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING...INCLUDING

IMPASSIBLE LOW-WATER CROSSINGS.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...MOST STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES WILL

BE FLOWING. AS THE SOIL BECOMES SATURATED...RECENTLY BURNED AREAS

WILL BECOME SUSCEPTIBLE TO DANGEROUS...LIFE-THREATENING DEBRIS

FLOWS.

PERSONS LIVING IN AND CLOSE TO RECENTLY BURNED AREAS OR IN LOW-LYING

AREAS SUBJECT TO RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR

LATER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS. LISTEN TO LOCAL NEWS MEDIA AND NOAA

WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES.

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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@ Weather Drama Queen,

At least this will help with the drought. I know there were worries about SO CAL not having anymore rain. Looks like they are gonna be in for it now. Careful what you wish for?

My palms are going to stay in the ground even if I live in a high ridge!

Meteorologist and PhD student in Climate Science

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I have been topping trees, mulching, and staking small palms all day. I hear this could be a 100 year storm and very windy with gusts inland up to 80MPH, scary stuff.

Gary

Rock Ridge Ranch

South Escondido

5 miles ENE Rancho Bernardo

33.06N 117W, Elevation 971 Feet

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100 mph! If the wind is later in the week, I suspect many trees will fall because of the soil saturation. I lost a couple in the last storm, but I think my trees will be safe this time.

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Here's a graph of the jet stream for this coming week:

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/jetstream_model_fcst.html

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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@ Weather Drama Queen,

This exact subject is already being disscussed in WEATHER/CLIMATE!

http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?sh...40&start=40

Is there a reason it should be in Disscusssing Palm Trees?

Yep, re read his original post and stop being such a pecker head

Matt in Temecula, CA

Hot and dry in the summer, cold with light frost in the winter. Halfway between the desert and ocean

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@ Weather Drama Queen,

This exact subject is already being disscussed in WEATHER/CLIMATE!

http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?sh...40&start=40

Is there a reason it should be in Disscusssing Palm Trees?

From what I can tell, this extended storm period has devastating potential for SoCal. Since we have so many SoCal members, and since SoCalifornians are so complacent and such lightweights when it comes to weather, I think its important and worthwhile to give them as much warning as possible. Certainly more important than trying to relieve the aggravation of those that just have to be aggravated at something (or someone).

Thanks to those of you who help make this a fun and friendly forum.

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Considering the potential damage to palms (and other plants as well as property) we're going to keep this thread here in Discussing Palm Trees in order to give it maximum visibility and so that all CA members can take whatever appropriate action is possible.

Let's keep new posts on topic. If not, they will be deleted.

Leilani Estates, 25 mls/40 km south of Hilo, Big Island of Hawai'i. Elevation 880 ft/270 m. Average rainfall 140 inches/3550 mm

 

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Wish folks in California good luck. Wind can be worst than cold. Be prepared.

What you look for is what is looking

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@ Weather Drama Queen,

This exact subject is already being disscussed in WEATHER/CLIMATE!

http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?sh...40&start=40

Is there a reason it should be in Disscusssing Palm Trees?

Only because there is not a topic called >DISCUSSING FLYING PALM TREES AND UNDERWATER MONOCOTS WORLDWIDE?

Coastal San Diego, California

Z10b

Dry summer subtropical/Mediterranean

warm summer/mild winter

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@ Weather Drama Queen,

At least this will help with the drought. I know there were worries about SO CAL not having anymore rain. Looks like they are gonna be in for it now. Careful what you wish for?

My palms are going to stay in the ground even if I live in a high ridge!

How many palms do you have planted in the ground?

Len

Vista, CA (Zone 10a)

Shadowridge Area

"Show me your garden and I shall tell you what you are."

-- Alfred Austin

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Didn't mean to rile anyone but thought it wise to broaden the alert by posting the storm situation in 2 forums. My fear of over-hyping the forecast seems to be out-weighed by the potential of considerable damage.

Edited by happ

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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Wish you all(Cal members) the very best.Let there be enough rain for your garden & reservoiurs.And lets pray the rain does not bring in with it too gusty winds that damage the vegetation & landscape of the beautiful california.

Love,

kris.

love conquers all..

43278.gif

.

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@ LJG

I have a bunch of queens in the ground, and all the rarer stuff is in pots. I don't trust the weather... Any time I try to put a palm in the ground it usually dies that next winter... I have a small hothouse that keeps them somewhat cozy in the winter... Plus I'm up in Eugene at a uni of oregon, transferring to uni of Oklahoma next year (probably) so I don't spend too much time at home.

@happ

sorry!! I'm just giving you a hard time. Im no different... I am studying meteorology right now, and after living in humdrum weather California, the mention of rain gets me ansy!! Yer no more weather drama queen than I am. After looking at some of my old post in the Weather forum, I'd say I'm more of one. AND IM PROUD OF IT!

I wish thr best of luck to so cal (and nor cal) ... Hopefully the wind/very moist soils won't bring down any palms...

Edited by Palmy

Meteorologist and PhD student in Climate Science

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Didn't mean to rile anyone but thought it wise to broaden the alert by posting the storm situation in 2 forums. My fear of over-hyping the forecast seems to be out-weighed by the potential of considerable damage.

Happ, you were right to post it here. Not everyone who will be affected goes to the Weather/Climate board. Plus, the emphasis right now has been on freeze damage - but WIND IS A KILLER! Can't tell you how many things I've lost to wind... cuz I've lost count.

The wind you all get in CA is worse than what I've ever experienced (except for the twister). The hurricanes I've been through were only cat1 - the second one, barely. Even if your plants are not yanked clean out of the ground, they can experience bad root damage and dessication, even when staked.

Flooding rains on top of that will only make a bad situation worse - especially for the arid-loving palms you grow out there.

St. Pete

Zone - a wacked-out place between 9b & 10

Elevation = 44' - not that it does any good

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Happ, Thankyou for the warning! I prepaired for the rain and some wind. Today I am going to better prepare for wind!!! 60 mph would blow down my shade house the way it is now. I will retape some of the plastic on my green house! Thanks again Happ :D , Randy

test

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An additional concern will be very cool temps later in the week. By Friday the jet stream sags south of California allowing the very chilled air mass from a cold low over Oregon to descend upon us. Also thunderstorms are forecast through-out this week suggesting very cold air aloft. Cold and wet make palms very unhappy :unsure:

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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Happ,

I love weather talk (and video) so if you can post radar images and movies of the wind blowing palms etc. I will be in heaven.

MattyB posted movies with another server thingy. Can you do that?

I DIG PALMS

Call me anytime to chat about transplanting palms.

305-345-8918

https://www.facebook...KenJohnsonPalms

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Thanks for clarifying the wind thing -- I had only heard the heavy rain predictions, which could be dramatic, but not problematic in my location. Wind, another story. I tend to be complacent about dramatic forecasts because they don't usually materialize fully, but better to be prepared. Thanks happ!

Kim Cyr

Between the beach and the bays, Point Loma, San Diego, California USA
and on a 300 year-old lava flow, Pahoa, Hawaii, 1/4 mile from the 2018 flow
All characters  in this work are fictitious. Any resemblance to real persons, living or dead, is purely coincidental.

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Mostly I'm just glad for the rain. That said...

Anyone predicting waterspouts/tornadoes? We seem to get them more than people realize.

I fully expect my pool to be full of debris from all my neighbors trees after this is over (sycamore, pine, eucalyptus). I've never pulled a palm frond or leaflet out of the pool.

Zone 9b/10a, Sunset Zone 22

7 miles inland. Elevation 120ft (37m)

Average annual low temp: 30F (-1C)

Average annual rainfall: 8" (20cm)

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I'm with Kim....Thanks for posting in this part of the forum! I had heard about the heavy rain but, not the extreme wind. Good luck to everyone. Jeff

Jeff Rood

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High winds, thunderstorms and cold air pools means the possibility of hail. I'd be covering my sensitive stuff or bringing potted sensitive stuff under cover. Hopefully its just small hail, and not much of it, but large hail can do real damage, and lots of hail regardless of size can fuse into big ice blocks that last for hours. I hate hail. :angry:

Best regards

Tyrone

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

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Hope all turns out good for you all. My palms are ugly from all the cold we had so I hope yours will all be ok.

Thanks for the best wishes!

I, too, hope for false alarms.

The rain, no biggie.

After, well . . . . . .

Let's keep our forum fun and friendly.

Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or lost profits or revenue, claims by third parties or for other similar costs, or any special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of my opinion or the use of this data. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed or warranted in any way and I disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use, or inability to use my data. Other terms may apply.

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The local news just said the big stuff arrives in San Diego between 4 and 7PM Monday. The winds are predicted to be 50MPH, I hope everyone buttoned up their yards.

Gary

Rock Ridge Ranch

South Escondido

5 miles ENE Rancho Bernardo

33.06N 117W, Elevation 971 Feet

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Once upon a time, everything that happens today, will just be a memory tomorrow.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Here is what the U.S. geological water science just predicted:

Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.

In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned.

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Once upon a time, everything that happens today, will just be a memory tomorrow.

I sure hope so!

Let's keep our forum fun and friendly.

Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or lost profits or revenue, claims by third parties or for other similar costs, or any special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of my opinion or the use of this data. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed or warranted in any way and I disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use, or inability to use my data. Other terms may apply.

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Thanks for the posting the very sobering U.S. Geological report, Palmfreek. It's been a long time since such a dire forecast has been issued :blink:

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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I spent most of yesterday trimming palms to cut down on wind resistence and sand bagging along my fence and canyon. I believe this series of storms will be the real deal and I'm not taking them lightly. Be vigilant around thurs. and fri. as very strong winds are projected with already saturated ground. Trim your Bizzies and battan the hatches cuz were in for a wild ride!!

Take care,

Stevo

Urban Rainforest Palms,Cycads and Exotics. Were in San Diego Ca. about 5 miles from the beach on Tecolote canyon. It seems to be an ideal growing climate with moderate temps. and very little frost. Vacation Rental in Leilani Estates, big island Hi PM me if interested in staying there.

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Happ,

Your last post implied a possibility of a Pineapple Express condition. Does this mean that the potential of the Arctic cold after the rain has diminished?

Thanks

John Case

Brentwood CA

Owner and curator of Hana Keu Garden

USDA Zone 9b more or less, Sunset Zone 14 in winter 9 in summer

"Its always exciting the first time you save the world. Its a real thrill!"

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Happ,

Your last post implied a possibility of a Pineapple Express condition. Does this mean that the potential of the Arctic cold after the rain has diminished?

Thanks

John, I have been trying to get info about how cold conditions may become later in the week. There are two factors involved in this series of storms; the polar jet and subtropical jet. The trigger to our wet weather this week is a massive low pressure near the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. The source for the moisture is the subtropical jet stream\ "Pineapple Express" but more northerly than in past years. NWS_LA keeps lowest minimums in the 40's thru the week but a clear night on Friday could be colder in my opinion.

Right now a very strong storm is poised to enter California today. It looks like very strong thunderstorms, hail & high winds into tonight :blink:

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... A POWERFUL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL LINGER...MAINTAINING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES WHICH COULD EITHER FORM OVER LAND OR MOVE ASHORE AFTER FORMING AS WATERSPOUTS.

NWS_LA

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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I vote "NO" on tornados.

Matt Bradford

"Manambe Lavaka"

Spring Valley, CA (8.5 miles inland from San Diego Bay)

10B on the hill (635 ft. elevation)

9B in the canyon (520 ft. elevation)

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Thanks Happ.

David

Hollywood Hills West, Los Angeles, CA USA

Southwest facing canyon | Altitude 600 - 775 feet | Decomposing granite
USDA Zone 10b | AHS 6 | Sunset Zone 23 | Köppen Csb | No frost or freezes
Average Low 49 F°/9.4 C° | Average High 79 F°/28.8 C° | Average Rainfall 20"/50.8 cm

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Wow.

That forecast looks awful and it's talking about a 2-3 week period. I sure hope something changes and it doesn't happen. The combination of torrential rain and high wind can wreak havoc and growing things (not to mention homes).

This is where things get even more interesting

Yeah - you never want to see words like "interesting" -or "memorable" - in a wx-discussion. Good luck to all of you, this could make the recent problems in the S/E pale in comparison.

St. Pete

Zone - a wacked-out place between 9b & 10

Elevation = 44' - not that it does any good

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Every time I've check the radar, Los Angeles/Ventura are getting hammered. We just had a big cell pass through San Diego County. Cars are all "rooster tailing" on down most streets. Below is the latest radar.

post-662-1263859608_thumb.jpg

Zone 9b/10a, Sunset Zone 22

7 miles inland. Elevation 120ft (37m)

Average annual low temp: 30F (-1C)

Average annual rainfall: 8" (20cm)

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