"California Storms to be Unrelenting"

[happ]

Normally I don't post weather concerns on the main forum but believe all California gardeners should take measures to protect palms from wind damage. An incredible amount of rainfall will occur this week like we haven't experience since 2005. Our normal "yearly" rainfall totals may be reached in this coming week.

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEK

FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A STORMY PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT

WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOST OF NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE

FOLLOWING WEEK.

A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN

THAT WILL DRIVE A SERIES OF MOISTURE LADEN STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN

CALIFORNIA. ONCE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BEGINS MONDAY...IT WILL

LIKELY CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL SLOPES UNABATED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK

DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.

BASED ON HISTORIC PATTERNS...THIS WEEK-LONG EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL

TO GENERATE RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...TO 15 TO 25

INCHES ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

THE STRENGTH OF THE JET STREAM DRIVING THESE STORMS IS OVER 200 MPH

AND THE STORMS THEMSELVES WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY ONSHORE IN QUICK

SUCCESSION.

AS A RESULT THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT

WEEK. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS GALE FORCE OR HIGHER WINDS ARE

EXPECTED. OVER LAND...DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE

ARRIVAL OF EACH STORM. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE

FOR THE COASTS AND VALLEYS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MAY

HAVE GUSTS 60 MPH OR HIGHER.

SHOULD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEVELOP AS FORECAST...UNREGULATED REACHES

OF MAINSTREAM RIVERS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT FLOW BY THE END

OF THE WEEK. HEAVY FLOWS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE

RIVERS ONCE UNDERGROUND AQUIFERS FILL. IT HAS BEEN SEVERAL YEARS

SINCE HEAVY FLOWS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THESE RIVERS...SO LOCAL

INTERESTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING...INCLUDING

IMPASSIBLE LOW-WATER CROSSINGS.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...MOST STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES WILL

BE FLOWING. AS THE SOIL BECOMES SATURATED...RECENTLY BURNED AREAS

WILL BECOME SUSCEPTIBLE TO DANGEROUS...LIFE-THREATENING DEBRIS

FLOWS.

PERSONS LIVING IN AND CLOSE TO RECENTLY BURNED AREAS OR IN LOW-LYING

AREAS SUBJECT TO RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR

LATER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS. LISTEN TO LOCAL NEWS MEDIA AND NOAA

WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES.

[Palmy]

@ Weather Drama Queen,

At least this will help with the drought. I know there were worries about SO CAL not having anymore rain. Looks like they are gonna be in for it now. Careful what you wish for?

My palms are going to stay in the ground even if I live in a high ridge!

[gsn]

@ Weather Drama Queen,

This exact subject is already being disscussed in WEATHER/CLIMATE!

http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?sh...40&start=40

Is there a reason it should be in Disscusssing Palm Trees?

Edited January 16, 2010 by gsn

[Gtlevine]

I have been topping trees, mulching, and staking small palms all day. I hear this could be a 100 year storm and very windy with gusts inland up to 80MPH, scary stuff.

Gary

[BigFrond]

100 mph! If the wind is later in the week, I suspect many trees will fall because of the soil saturation. I lost a couple in the last storm, but I think my trees will be safe this time.

[happ]

Here's a graph of the jet stream for this coming week:

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/jetstream_model_fcst.html

[freakypalmguy]

@ Weather Drama Queen,

This exact subject is already being disscussed in WEATHER/CLIMATE!

http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?sh...40&start=40

Is there a reason it should be in Disscusssing Palm Trees?

Yep, re read his original post and stop being such a pecker head

[PALM MOD]

@ Weather Drama Queen,

This exact subject is already being disscussed in WEATHER/CLIMATE!

http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?sh...40&start=40

Is there a reason it should be in Disscusssing Palm Trees?

From what I can tell, this extended storm period has devastating potential for SoCal. Since we have so many SoCal members, and since SoCalifornians are so complacent and such lightweights when it comes to weather, I think its important and worthwhile to give them as much warning as possible. Certainly more important than trying to relieve the aggravation of those that just have to be aggravated at something (or someone).

[bgl]

Considering the potential damage to palms (and other plants as well as property) we're going to keep this thread here in Discussing Palm Trees in order to give it maximum visibility and so that all CA members can take whatever appropriate action is possible.

Let's keep new posts on topic. If not, they will be deleted.

[bubba]

Wish folks in California good luck. Wind can be worst than cold. Be prepared.

[epicure3]

@ Weather Drama Queen,

This exact subject is already being disscussed in WEATHER/CLIMATE!

http://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?sh...40&start=40

Is there a reason it should be in Disscusssing Palm Trees?

Only because there is not a topic called >DISCUSSING FLYING PALM TREES AND UNDERWATER MONOCOTS WORLDWIDE?

[LJG]

@ Weather Drama Queen,

At least this will help with the drought. I know there were worries about SO CAL not having anymore rain. Looks like they are gonna be in for it now. Careful what you wish for?

My palms are going to stay in the ground even if I live in a high ridge!

How many palms do you have planted in the ground?

[happ]

Didn't mean to rile anyone but thought it wise to broaden the alert by posting the storm situation in 2 forums. My fear of over-hyping the forecast seems to be out-weighed by the potential of considerable damage.

Edited January 17, 2010 by happ

[Kris]

Wish you all(Cal members) the very best.Let there be enough rain for your garden & reservoiurs.And lets pray the rain does not bring in with it too gusty winds that damage the vegetation & landscape of the beautiful california.

Love,

kris.

[Palmy]

@ LJG

I have a bunch of queens in the ground, and all the rarer stuff is in pots. I don't trust the weather... Any time I try to put a palm in the ground it usually dies that next winter... I have a small hothouse that keeps them somewhat cozy in the winter... Plus I'm up in Eugene at a uni of oregon, transferring to uni of Oklahoma next year (probably) so I don't spend too much time at home.

@happ

sorry!! I'm just giving you a hard time. Im no different... I am studying meteorology right now, and after living in humdrum weather California, the mention of rain gets me ansy!! Yer no more weather drama queen than I am. After looking at some of my old post in the Weather forum, I'd say I'm more of one. AND IM PROUD OF IT!

I wish thr best of luck to so cal (and nor cal) ... Hopefully the wind/very moist soils won't bring down any palms...

Edited January 17, 2010 by Palmy

[SunnyFl]

Didn't mean to rile anyone but thought it wise to broaden the alert by posting the storm situation in 2 forums. My fear of over-hyping the forecast seems to be out-weighed by the potential of considerable damage.

Happ, you were right to post it here. Not everyone who will be affected goes to the Weather/Climate board. Plus, the emphasis right now has been on freeze damage - but WIND IS A KILLER! Can't tell you how many things I've lost to wind... cuz I've lost count.

The wind you all get in CA is worse than what I've ever experienced (except for the twister). The hurricanes I've been through were only cat1 - the second one, barely. Even if your plants are not yanked clean out of the ground, they can experience bad root damage and dessication, even when staked.

Flooding rains on top of that will only make a bad situation worse - especially for the arid-loving palms you grow out there.

[yachtingone]

Happ, Thankyou for the warning! I prepaired for the rain and some wind. Today I am going to better prepare for wind!!! 60 mph would blow down my shade house the way it is now. I will retape some of the plastic on my green house! Thanks again Happ , Randy

[junglegalfla]

Good luck riding this one out~ Hope everyone fares well.

[happ]

An additional concern will be very cool temps later in the week. By Friday the jet stream sags south of California allowing the very chilled air mass from a cold low over Oregon to descend upon us. Also thunderstorms are forecast through-out this week suggesting very cold air aloft. Cold and wet make palms very unhappy

[Ken Johnson]

Happ,

I love weather talk (and video) so if you can post radar images and movies of the wind blowing palms etc. I will be in heaven.

MattyB posted movies with another server thingy. Can you do that?

[Kim]

Thanks for clarifying the wind thing -- I had only heard the heavy rain predictions, which could be dramatic, but not problematic in my location. Wind, another story. I tend to be complacent about dramatic forecasts because they don't usually materialize fully, but better to be prepared. Thanks happ!

[osideterry]

Mostly I'm just glad for the rain. That said...

Anyone predicting waterspouts/tornadoes? We seem to get them more than people realize.

I fully expect my pool to be full of debris from all my neighbors trees after this is over (sycamore, pine, eucalyptus). I've never pulled a palm frond or leaflet out of the pool.

[JEFF from Trabuco Canyon CA]

I'm with Kim....Thanks for posting in this part of the forum! I had heard about the heavy rain but, not the extreme wind. Good luck to everyone. Jeff

[DippyD]

well no winds yet but the rain has started to fall here in san clemente. it should be a interesting next couple weeks!

[yachtingone]

I'm with Kim on this one too !

[Tyrone]

High winds, thunderstorms and cold air pools means the possibility of hail. I'd be covering my sensitive stuff or bringing potted sensitive stuff under cover. Hopefully its just small hail, and not much of it, but large hail can do real damage, and lots of hail regardless of size can fuse into big ice blocks that last for hours. I hate hail.

Best regards

Tyrone

[Davidl]

Hope all turns out good for you all. My palms are ugly from all the cold we had so I hope yours will all be ok.

[DoomsDave]

Hope all turns out good for you all. My palms are ugly from all the cold we had so I hope yours will all be ok.

Thanks for the best wishes!

I, too, hope for false alarms.

The rain, no biggie.

After, well . . . . . .

[Gtlevine]

The local news just said the big stuff arrives in San Diego between 4 and 7PM Monday. The winds are predicted to be 50MPH, I hope everyone buttoned up their yards.

Gary

[_Keith]

Once upon a time, everything that happens today, will just be a memory tomorrow.

[DippyD]

Here is what the U.S. geological water science just predicted:

Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.

In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned.

[DoomsDave]

Once upon a time, everything that happens today, will just be a memory tomorrow.

I sure hope so!

[happ]

Thanks for the posting the very sobering U.S. Geological report, Palmfreek. It's been a long time since such a dire forecast has been issued

[Urban Rainforest]

I spent most of yesterday trimming palms to cut down on wind resistence and sand bagging along my fence and canyon. I believe this series of storms will be the real deal and I'm not taking them lightly. Be vigilant around thurs. and fri. as very strong winds are projected with already saturated ground. Trim your Bizzies and battan the hatches cuz were in for a wild ride!!

Take care,

Stevo

[John Case]

Happ,

Your last post implied a possibility of a Pineapple Express condition. Does this mean that the potential of the Arctic cold after the rain has diminished?

Thanks

[happ]

Happ,

Your last post implied a possibility of a Pineapple Express condition. Does this mean that the potential of the Arctic cold after the rain has diminished?

Thanks

John, I have been trying to get info about how cold conditions may become later in the week. There are two factors involved in this series of storms; the polar jet and subtropical jet. The trigger to our wet weather this week is a massive low pressure near the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. The source for the moisture is the subtropical jet stream\ "Pineapple Express" but more northerly than in past years. NWS_LA keeps lowest minimums in the 40's thru the week but a clear night on Friday could be colder in my opinion.

Right now a very strong storm is poised to enter California today. It looks like very strong thunderstorms, hail & high winds into tonight

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... A POWERFUL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL LINGER...MAINTAINING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES WHICH COULD EITHER FORM OVER LAND OR MOVE ASHORE AFTER FORMING AS WATERSPOUTS.

NWS_LA

[MattyB]

I vote "NO" on tornados.

[Hollywood Palms]

Thanks Happ.

David

[SunnyFl]

Wow.

That forecast looks awful and it's talking about a 2-3 week period. I sure hope something changes and it doesn't happen. The combination of torrential rain and high wind can wreak havoc and growing things (not to mention homes).

This is where things get even more interesting

Yeah - you never want to see words like "interesting" -or "memorable" - in a wx-discussion. Good luck to all of you, this could make the recent problems in the S/E pale in comparison.

[osideterry]

Every time I've check the radar, Los Angeles/Ventura are getting hammered. We just had a big cell pass through San Diego County. Cars are all "rooster tailing" on down most streets. Below is the latest radar.