December 2009 Weather Thread

[_Keith]

Starting off the month cold and wet in Louisiana. Drizzled all day yesterday, woke up to rain and 40 degrees. Will top out today around 55. Its been a wet fall and early winter here. Reminds me all too much of those cold wet winters that were common back when I grew up. You could wear all the layers you wanted and an over coat, but the moisture just went right through them the minute you walked out the door. Used to make my teeth chatter.

The last two warm decades have hardly given us the opportunity to wear winter clothes here. But I just got this gut feel this one is gonna be different.

I sure want to be wrong.

[amazondk]

Thanks Keith. I am going to be in Houston on Sunday for a few days and then pop up to Montana. So, I guess I had be at least somewhat prepared. Here the rains have still not hit in full force. And, the temperatures are hovering around 35 to 38 C every day.

dk

[mnorell]

When they say Meteorological Winter starts on 1 December...they are not joking!!! We may not have had a freeze yet, but it feels today like we are in Alaska! I don't think I have ever known 46F to feel this cold. At 84% humidity and a bit of a breeze with the dank grey of the Arctic, it feels as if we have been dunked in an icy bath. I look out at huge bananas bearing bunches of fruit, heliconias in full bloom, and palms waving in the breeze, but somehow something is not right! Keith, they forecast 50s for us today as well...but I'll bet we won't get out of the 40s. This is a tight-gripping, advective rush of wet, Arctic air.

At least we had a more pleasant November than we did last year, which was frigid and frosty, more like January. For me, this year's Nov. average was 57F, about 3-4 degrees below normal, where last year was 6-7 below normal, at 54F. Let's hope that this first week of December, which is forecast to be more deep chill, will be followed by some abatement for the balance of the month. Our highs are about where our typical lows should be this time of year. Heads-up to those of you further to the east in the panhandle and Georgia...as you usually get it a day or two after we do. Not pleasant!!!

The NWS is suddenly backing off a bit on their threat of a good freeze for much of the Deep South this coming weekend though everyone seems confused by the models, which apparently are not in agreement and changing run-to-run. I guess we'll have to see. All I know is that I can start marking down my calendar until our spring begins on the first of March. 90-89-88...to go.

[Zeeth]

It's warm here, high of 80, low of 65. According to the forecast, it will be like that for the next 10 days, with the exception of saturday, with a low of 47, burr.

[gsytch]

With a nasty low and cold front coming to TampaBay on Wed, we are expecting typical El Nino weather....dark skies, some severe storms, followed by cloudy weather where the cold just doesnt penetrate. It is a balmy 70F out right now at 8pm, nice breeze, 87% humidity. Everything loves it and more rain in the offing? I am in heaven...well, it could be sunnier! Greg in NPR :P

[steve 9atx]

Don

Too bad you can't be here on Friday. They're calling for a low of 29F at IAH

with a 40% chance of precipitation, possibly snow!!!! I don't remember any

thing like this at the beginning of December. Thank goodness for my heat

island; I probably won't freeze for long if at all.

Steve

[_Keith]

Don

Too bad you can't be here on Friday. They're calling for a low of 29F at IAH

with a 40% chance of precipitation, possibly snow!!!! I don't remember any

thing like this at the beginning of December. Thank goodness for my heat

island; I probably won't freeze for long if at all.

Steve

Wow, usually cooler here, but only showing 34 right now. Then again, weather forecasters change outlooks faster than their underwear nowadays.

[SunnyFl]

With a nasty low and cold front coming to TampaBay on Wed, we are expecting typical El Nino weather....dark skies, some severe storms...

I just hope nothing gets blown over tomorrow night.

[KMartin]

Outputs Here: http://www.scwxa.org/ujeas.html

Static URL: http://www.scwxa.org/ujeasdec09.html

UJEAS PROJECT

DECEMBER 1, 2009 - 6:30pm

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER AUTHORITY

NEW PROJECT OUTLINES FOR THE LAST MONTH OF THE YEAR ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, INCLUDING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE OUTLINE IS SHOWING WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL IN A LATE WINTER THAN EARLY WINTER, WITH NUMEROUS STORM SYSTEMS INTO THE WESTERN USA.

DURING THE BEGINNING PART OF THE MONTH, ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE TROUGH MOVING AROUND A REX BLOCK PATTERN WHERE A RIDGE OVER ALASKA WILL BE THE KEY PLAYER.

THIS PATTERN PROBABLY ONLY PLAYS OUT EXACTLY LIKE THAT ONCE OR TWICE EVERY 100 YEARS AND THE EFFECTS ON THAT WOULD MEAN MORE RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE WESTERN USA AS TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

NOW THE WESTERN USA WILL NOT BE UNDER THE TROUGHS ALL THE TIME, BUT MAJORITY OF THE MONTH WILL BE TROUGHS IN THE AREA, THUS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE 15TH OF THE MONTH, A RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN TROUGHS GIVING A DRY PERIOD.

UJEAS HEIGHTS ON FIGURE C. SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW APPROACHING CALIFORNIA. ON FIGURE D. THIS TROUGH IS OVER THE ROCKIES. IT DOES NOT SHOW UP AS REALLY COLD BUT BETWEEN IMAGES IS CHRISTMAS. SO BY LOOKING AT THIS, UJEAS IS PICKING UP ON A WET PATTERN AROUND CHRISTMAS.

AS THIS MOVES EAST, A RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC BUILDS BACK IN AND SENDS A LOW DOWN FROM THE NORTH, ENDING UP AROUND OR BEFORE NEW YEARS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS IS FAR OFF AND OF COURSE THESE ARE NEW VALUES IN THE PROJECT ON A RARE FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO BEGIN WITH.

OVERALL: ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR CALIFORNIA WITH TROUGHING ON THE WEST COAST FOR THE MAJORITY (AVERAGE) OF THE MONTH.

SNOW POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR RESORTS WITH THESE TROUGHS FROM THE NORTH AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE MONTH, HOWEVER THE TROUGHS THIS MONTH ARE WARM, LIKELY HIGH LEVEL SNOW LEVELS AND A CLASSIC EL NINO SIGNATURE.

K.MARTIN

[PalmGuyWC]

Keith/Happ,

So how about an update? Are we gonna get slammed in Calif. or what? Early snow in Dallas and the south so things are getting weird.

Dick

[KMartin]

My father's name is Keith .

Looks good to go. We have to endure a cold storm on Monday though with low snow levels and then a raise to them for warmer systems by mid/end week.

Northern California will get the brunt of this it seems but SoCal will get into the mix as well.

[happ]

All eyes are on the models and as Kevin points out the potential for significant rainfall looks good for California. ENSO usually doesn't kick in until January but the combination of factors: another ex-typhoon [Nida], weakening MJO in the Indian Ocean and a massive Alaska high could result in abundant rainfall for the state [that we desperately need].

Kevin, what are the chances for frost in between these systems this month. CPC keeps California warm.

Recorded my first 50F\ 10C minimum for the month [40's are common in December]. Winter is coming!

[mnorell]

So now just about the entire southern-central U.S. is getting slammed not only with a nice dose of cold but also SNOW! We are forecast to have 2-3" here Friday evening through Saturday morning. I will probably see my first actual freeze either Saturday or Sunday morning as well. Interestingly, the extreme southeast seems to block the storm and it shoots up to the northeast after dumping on us. I assume this is our first real example of the El Niño pattern pumping moisture to the Gulf States in the winter season. I wonder if this type of snow-event will be a common occurrence this year as moisture comes up from the Gulf and meets cold temps from the north.

What I just noticed is that virtually all of extreme southern Texas is predicted to see freezing temperatures, with snow throughout the region, including on the coast from Corpus on up I think to SW Louisiana (and thence on to my neck of the woods). The NWS currently shows Harlingen with a low Saturday morning of 33, as well as some other spots literally sitting right on the coastline. But everything else, including Houston, seems to be looking at temps in the 27-32 range. That's a big change from the last couple of very mild years in which winter storms consistently shot down to the east of Texas. Some of those Cocos and Hyophorbe lately enjoying the warm winters may be in for a very big surprise.

[_Keith]

Looks like we may see snowfall in South Louisiana as well. It would even break the record a couple of years ago for early snowfall recorded ever here. Temps should not be that bad though, hovering just above freezing.

[spockvr6]

Snowing like crazy here!

Am in LaCrosse, WI for work

[KMartin]

Hey Happ,

This next system looks cold. The systems after that would be the warmer type. Overall we should be above average for the month in temperatures.

The next system down into Southern California on Monday with the arctic front on Monday night pushing through, will make for freezing temperatures at KONT or nearby valley locations, with KBUR 4-5 degrees above KONTs temperatures for Monday night.

Looks very cold with that -5c 850mb temp in the area.

[osideterry]

Just a heads up SoCal as Saturday morning looks to be the coldest so far this season. Accuweather and weather.com forecast 33F for Oceanside, and weatherunderground has it down to 31F. (Let's hope those numbers are confined to the airport again.)

I'll be in Paso Robles wine-tasting, and the palms are on their own.

[Palmy]

in Eugene OR- Lows here around 20F - 25F (-7 to -4 C) each night. Highs have almost hit 40F (4C). In a few days Lows are suppose to be in the teens (-10C) with highs in the 30's (0-3C) with flurries/snow/rain. I have to drive from Eugene to SF probably around Thursday next week. It isn't looking so good right now...

[_Keith]

in Eugene OR- Lows here around 20F - 25F (-7 to -4 C) each night. Highs have almost hit 40F (4C). In a few days Lows are suppose to be in the teens (-10C) with highs in the 30's (0-3C) with flurries/snow/rain. I have to drive from Eugene to SF probably around Thursday next week. It isn't looking so good right now...

Burrr, you make me feel warm. Chilly here, but not too cold, just enough to get a little giddy in your up.

[war_eagle]

It's 37 and falling here in south Houston. The sleet has turned to snow now and is coming down pretty hard now. They're predicting 1-3" accumulations for this evening. The lows are supposed to bottom out at 25-28 overnight. The only saving grace is tomorrow is supposed to be sunny and warm up to the low 50s. Just for a reference of how strange this is the low tonight in Buffalo, NY will be 3 degrees warmer than in Houston, TX! If it does get down to 25 with as much snow and ice as is predicted there will be some palm losses for sure. I have my foxtails wrapped up with Xmas lights, blankets, and tarps and am hoping for the best. I also have some P. roebelenii that will probably take some significant damage. The sabals, butias, washies, queens, and trachies shouldn't care too much though.

[_Keith]

It's 37 and falling here in south Houston. The sleet has turned to snow now and is coming down pretty hard now. They're predicting 1-3" accumulations for this evening. The lows are supposed to bottom out at 25-28 overnight. The only saving grace is tomorrow is supposed to be sunny and warm up to the low 50s. Just for a reference of how strange this is the low tonight in Buffalo, NY will be 3 degrees warmer than in Houston, TX! If it does get down to 25 with as much snow and ice as is predicted there will be some palm losses for sure. I have my foxtails wrapped up with Xmas lights, blankets, and tarps and am hoping for the best. I also have some P. roebelenii that will probably take some significant damage. The sabals, butias, washies, queens, and trachies shouldn't care too much though.

Wow. I wonder how long it has been since Houston got that cold. Been many years, thats for sure. They are still predicting a low of 32 here in So. Central Louisiana which astounds me even more.

[amazondk]

The rainy season has yet to really arrive. And, the heat is a bit tiring. I hope by Christmas the rains are here.

dk

[Walter John]

no rain, warm to hot, storms predicted this weekend.

[war_eagle]

It's 37 and falling here in south Houston. The sleet has turned to snow now and is coming down pretty hard now. They're predicting 1-3" accumulations for this evening. The lows are supposed to bottom out at 25-28 overnight. The only saving grace is tomorrow is supposed to be sunny and warm up to the low 50s. Just for a reference of how strange this is the low tonight in Buffalo, NY will be 3 degrees warmer than in Houston, TX! If it does get down to 25 with as much snow and ice as is predicted there will be some palm losses for sure. I have my foxtails wrapped up with Xmas lights, blankets, and tarps and am hoping for the best. I also have some P. roebelenii that will probably take some significant damage. The sabals, butias, washies, queens, and trachies shouldn't care too much though.

Wow. I wonder how long it has been since Houston got that cold. Been many years, thats for sure. They are still predicting a low of 32 here in So. Central Louisiana which astounds me even more.

In 2002-2003 some areas outside the Houston heat island got down into the low 20s. Pearland regional airport reported 23, but that was a radiational event unlike this event today. I just got home from work and realized the snow/ice accumulation is much worse than I thought. We have 3" of snow on the ground at my house. It came down fast enough that many of my palm tree fronds were bent back down to the ground. I just got back inside from shaking as much of the snow off the trees as possible. I'll post some pictures later on today. This is just so bizarre.

[Palmy]

Not only is it cold in the south, the pacific northwest is freezing. We are still expected to see some flurries with lows in the teens. In Portland because of the Columbia river gorge, wind chills may be below 0F. A wetter system will come after this cold. Forecasters say it will rain, but usually it snows because the cold air is still in place... I'm finding it hard to see palms growing in Eugene OR. We are suppose to be an 8B climate... Really pusing that this next week.

California looks to be cool too. Hopefully we can get that snow pack going in central and even so-cal.

[Zeeth]

Low of 57 today but raining, which is a bad thing at these temperatures... It feels dreadful though, as water + wind + rain = it feels much colder than it actually is.

[jasons]

I'm up near The Woodlands and had light-moderate snow all day, but it didn't accumulate to much at all. NWS says it will be 24F here (GPS click forecast on NWS site). I tend to be a tad warmer at my location than the number they put up. My 4 Majesty Palms are all wrapped-up and I covered my Hawaiian Tis & Bird of Paradise. The Pygmy Dates & Orange tree will have to just wing it. I'm not worried about my Mexican Fans, Sagos, or Windmill Palms.

Edited December 4, 2009 by jasons

[_Keith]

I've had a bad feeling about the variance between projected Houston's low and our projected low all day. Sure enough, local forecaster just dropped our projected low from 32 down to 29. My feeling was right, and I am would not bet we won't come in even lower by morning. The front is moving faster than expected and the warming clouds will give way to clear skies before morning. That means a hard freeze and a killing frost to go with it.

Glad I planted appropriately. I don't miss the days of running around in freezing rain trying to protect things.

[Zeeth]

7 of the next 10 days are projected to hit ~80F, the other 3 days are supposed to be about 75F. My kind of weather!

[Palmy]

SD and LA look like they are about to be blasted with wind, rain, and mountain snow. Up in Oregon, it is just frigid. Temps may dip into the single digits. We do have Thrachy's up here. I assume they can take it. At 1000 feet in the bay area, where home is, it looks like some rain and maybe a little snow mixing in. Temps are cool in Cali... If there is a clear night, temps are going to bottom out real low...

[Tyrone]

no rain, warm to hot, storms predicted this weekend.

Ditto that, except the storms bit. It will be dry and bitumen melting on the weekend.

[amazondk]

It is a drizzle and cold for my equatorial body here in Houston, Tx. where I am right now. I just can´t wait to get to Montana on Wednesday and experience some real cold.

dk

[8er-moni]

:blink: A litte bit more cold in Europe before Christmas :drool: - I hope, it will change

[_Keith]

For some it is cold, for others wind, for us, it is rain. Here in Iberia Parish (county) a state of emergency was declared as rains continue to fall on grounds that have been saturated for over a month. I drove past several business with water running in the doorways and sugar cane fields so flooded you could not see the tops of the rows. And we have another rainy week ahead. Not sure what quite yet, but I do expect some losses in the garden.

[amazondk]

Here at Salt Lake City airport it is 10 F and may have a snow storm move in. Due to my late flight from Houston I missed my connection to Great Falls, MT. But, so it goes. It will be colder there. A break from the heat anyway.

dk

[amazondk]

Here at Salt Lake City airport it is 10 F and may have a snow storm move in. Due to my late flight from Houston I missed my connection to Great Falls, MT. But, so it goes. It will be colder there. A break from the heat anyway.

dk

[amazondk]

Here at Salt Lake City airport it is 10 F and may have a snow storm move in. Due to my late flight from Houston I missed my connection to Great Falls, MT. But, so it goes. It will be colder there. A break from the heat anyway.

dk

[Kim]

Don, it must be 20 below freezing in Great Falls by now, coldest place I've ever been in my life (yes, I am exaggerating). You do get around. Last I saw you were lolling in a hammock by the river in Brazil.

[amazondk]

Well Kim, it was actually 10 F with a strong wind from the west when I stepped out of the Great Falls airport at about 4:45 pm yesterday afternoon. My dad brought me a down coat, so I did not freeze. But, the wind cut the chill straight to the bone. I certainly am not going to be hanging out in any hammocks around here.

This is the current weather on this part of the planet. It is a real heat wave today.

10°F

RealFeel®

-16°F

Winds: SW

at 21mph

Mostly Cloudy

Humidity: 61%

Dew Point: -1° F

Pressure: 30.00 in

Visibility: 10 Miles

[happ]

Nice series of storms moving onshore over California w/ occasional heavy showers this weekend. So far no mudslides but hillsides are close to saturation in burn areas. Really need this rain. By Christmas the hillsides will be lush in green grasses.