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Coldest Winter in last 10 to 15 years coming


_Keith

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I believe it to be true. Just sayin'

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Keith--

Where do you predict the cold winter to occur? Across the globe? I think if you look in the records you'll see that cold winters tend to be regional. For example, North America may have a colder winter while Europe is warmer than normal; likewise California may have a mild winter while the southeast has a very cold one. Right now the more likely factor is the El Niño. Not sure if this condition combined with low or high sunspot activity has been charted in terms of its effect on winters. Do you have any source for that kind of data? It would be interesting to run a glance at those data...

Michael Norell

Rancho Mirage, California | 33°44' N 116°25' W | 287 ft | z10a | avg Jan 43/70F | Jul 78/108F avg | Weather Station KCARANCH310

previously Big Pine Key, Florida | 24°40' N 81°21' W | 4.5 ft. | z12a | Calcareous substrate | avg annual min. approx 52F | avg Jan 65/75F | Jul 83/90 | extreme min approx 41F

previously Natchez, Mississippi | 31°33' N 91°24' W | 220 ft.| z9a | Downtown/river-adjacent | Loess substrate | avg annual min. 23F | Jan 43/61F | Jul 73/93F | extreme min 2.5F (1899); previously Los Angeles, California (multiple locations)

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You can blame it all on Climate Change. Whatever the outcome.

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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This is just one of many articles on the subject.

http://climate-change.suite101.com/article..._climate_change

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Here's another one from NASA's Godard Institute on the subject, authored in 2001:

The Sun's Chilly Impact on Earth

and another from 2006 that shows low activity not right now but up in 2022:

NASA Long Range Solar Forecast (2006)

and

2006 future sunspot forecast

and some new info from this year:

Mystery of the Missing Sunspots

Michael Norell

Rancho Mirage, California | 33°44' N 116°25' W | 287 ft | z10a | avg Jan 43/70F | Jul 78/108F avg | Weather Station KCARANCH310

previously Big Pine Key, Florida | 24°40' N 81°21' W | 4.5 ft. | z12a | Calcareous substrate | avg annual min. approx 52F | avg Jan 65/75F | Jul 83/90 | extreme min approx 41F

previously Natchez, Mississippi | 31°33' N 91°24' W | 220 ft.| z9a | Downtown/river-adjacent | Loess substrate | avg annual min. 23F | Jan 43/61F | Jul 73/93F | extreme min 2.5F (1899); previously Los Angeles, California (multiple locations)

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This is just one of many articles on the subject.

http://climate-change.suite101.com/article..._climate_change

Arghhhh! Keith! It seems like we're due, too. Jet stream has been making huge dips from central Canada and Northern Europe. That's not great news for only October! I'm banking on a severe cold pool of air before Christmas, in mid-January and most of February.

Bye for nowm My palm friend!

Paul

Paul, The Palm Doctor @ http://www.thewisegardener.com

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Luke, I'm taking your law of averages approach as well. Not likely to have two monster cold events in back to back years... but then again the hurricanes didn't listen to averages.

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There's no hope for any turnaround, Some in the hottest summers are fofternollowed by blatently frigid winter temperatures. I'm already prepared; it won't be pretty!

Pablo

Paul, The Palm Doctor @ http://www.thewisegardener.com

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I have experienced mild winters for many years now. The last time I recall the temperature in my area dropping below the mid-20's was the winter of 2001-2002 when there were a couple of nights around 22ºF. It's bound to happen again soon.

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Predicting the weather is like playing the stock market. All the rhyme and reason makes no difference at all when it actually happens or doesn't. At the end of the winter we can all revisit this thread to see if it was right or not.

Coastal San Diego, California

Z10b

Dry summer subtropical/Mediterranean

warm summer/mild winter

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This is just one of many articles on the subject.

http://climate-change.suite101.com/article..._climate_change

Arghhhh! Keith! It seems like we're due, too. Jet stream has been making huge dips from central Canada and Northern Europe. That's not great news for only October! I'm banking on a severe cold pool of air before Christmas, in mid-January and most of February.

Bye for nowm My palm friend!

Paul

Hi Pablito

So far this year, esp from late spring into autumn has been dominated by the westerlies\ upper winds & why both the hurricane & monsoon season were so weak [good news for Florida but rotten for Arizona]. During El Nino the subtropical jet is basically in control w/ wet but fairly mild winter temps [esp minimums]. That gives the Florida palms moisture all year [sounds good to me :mrlooney:

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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Accuweather said it is because of a warm PDO (which really does make sense when paired with a coolish El Nino;) the best analog year for comparison is winter of 76-77.

Paul

Paul, The Palm Doctor @ http://www.thewisegardener.com

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I am very interested in looking at climate patterns.

If I am not mistaken, I believe that here in Florida, we do not typically get a major freezing event during El-Nino. On the other hand, there has been a decreasing number of sunspots being counted on the sun, so overall it appears that the Earth is going into a cooling cycle.

Brevard County, Fl

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Accuweather said it is because of a warm PDO (which really does make sense when paired with a coolish El Nino;) the best analog year for comparison is winter of 76-77.

Paul

Actually I was just thinking that the 1977 freeze was in fact the only severe freeze we had during an El-Nino pattern

Brevard County, Fl

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I am definitely looking forward to some relatively consistent moisture (for winter) for the palms and other plants. A 1977 event would be devestating, though, measurable snow for Central Fl. anyone? As far as last year's winter cold, developed areas in this region must have experienced some runaway urban heat island effects as Orlando Intl. never got below 28-29 F and I don't think the Executive Airport even dipped below 32 F. Relative to long-term averages, this doesn't constitute a bad winter for us at all (more like back to reality), though more rural areas got hit much, much harder. This lack of sunspots is unprecedented in our lifetimes though, so who knows what the coming combination of factors will mean for winter.

-Michael

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In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Here's a graph of sunspot activity since 1750. One thing I notice right off the bat is that 1989 and 1990 were accompanied by an incredibly high number of sunspots. In the US, both the southeast and California experienced some of the coldest winter weather events on record in one or both of those two years.

NASA sunspot graph

Also, if sunspot activity directly influences our winters, and since sunspot activity goes to almost zero every eleven years, I think it would be instructive to see if we have very cold winters every eleven years. That's certainly not in my memory, but it would be interesting to see to put this theory to the test.

Again, I think that winter severity is regionally good or bad across the globe/hemisphere depending on various factors. Europe or Asia may have a horrible winter while the US has generally mild temperatures.

Michael Norell

Rancho Mirage, California | 33°44' N 116°25' W | 287 ft | z10a | avg Jan 43/70F | Jul 78/108F avg | Weather Station KCARANCH310

previously Big Pine Key, Florida | 24°40' N 81°21' W | 4.5 ft. | z12a | Calcareous substrate | avg annual min. approx 52F | avg Jan 65/75F | Jul 83/90 | extreme min approx 41F

previously Natchez, Mississippi | 31°33' N 91°24' W | 220 ft.| z9a | Downtown/river-adjacent | Loess substrate | avg annual min. 23F | Jan 43/61F | Jul 73/93F | extreme min 2.5F (1899); previously Los Angeles, California (multiple locations)

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Interesting graph Michael. I notice the last peak is around the time of the last real cold weather I had - winter of 2001-2002. There was also a cold winter here in 1995 that others talk about, but I don't recall because I didn't have any tender plants then. The 1995 time coincides with low sunspots on the graph. I guess there could be some correlation, but there are probably numerous factors that determine the final outcome.

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Yes, Kathryn, I personally also tend to go with the 'numerous factors' idea...and sometimes it just seems random. For example, if a stagnant winter trend developed wherein a high-pressure cell were to park itself in the northeastern Gulf over the Big Bend area of Florida, the central upper Gulf Coast area could be bathed in a warm Gulf flow all winter long and the Canadian air would flow perhaps in a western or west-Texas trough which would then jettison up to the northeast. Remember that last winter Texas and much of Louisiana were under the influence of a warm ridge for almost the whole season, with amazingly warm averages and minima...which is why the extreme southeast and Florida got several one-two punches of bitter cold in their persistent eastside trough. I believe Dallas never went much below 25F!

Michael Norell

Rancho Mirage, California | 33°44' N 116°25' W | 287 ft | z10a | avg Jan 43/70F | Jul 78/108F avg | Weather Station KCARANCH310

previously Big Pine Key, Florida | 24°40' N 81°21' W | 4.5 ft. | z12a | Calcareous substrate | avg annual min. approx 52F | avg Jan 65/75F | Jul 83/90 | extreme min approx 41F

previously Natchez, Mississippi | 31°33' N 91°24' W | 220 ft.| z9a | Downtown/river-adjacent | Loess substrate | avg annual min. 23F | Jan 43/61F | Jul 73/93F | extreme min 2.5F (1899); previously Los Angeles, California (multiple locations)

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If the westerly upper winds stay in control it seems the flow into Florida would be across the warm Gulf waters & certainly modifying any really cold air.

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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Here's a graph of sunspot activity since 1750. One thing I notice right off the bat is that 1989 and 1990 were accompanied by an incredibly high number of sunspots. In the US, both the southeast and California experienced some of the coldest winter weather events on record in one or both of those two years.

NASA sunspot graph

Also, if sunspot activity directly influences our winters, and since sunspot activity goes to almost zero every eleven years, I think it would be instructive to see if we have very cold winters every eleven years. That's certainly not in my memory, but it would be interesting to see to put this theory to the test.

Again, I think that winter severity is regionally good or bad across the globe/hemisphere depending on various factors. Europe or Asia may have a horrible winter while the US has generally mild temperatures.

I am not referring to the normal sunspot cycles, which have no clear statisical relationship to weather. Note the nature of the last cycle drop and the lag at the bottom. Some believe this may be leading to a prolonged period of no sunspot activity similar to the Maunder Minimum that occured at the same time as the Little Ice Age. At these times the sun can take a vacation of many decades with no sunspot activity. Of course, like most everything in science there are always folks on both sides of the argument, but it is an interesting conversation.

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Keith, I believe one of the articles I linked in an earlier post in this thread showed that they've recently seen a big uptick in those "conveyor belts" in the sun that predict future sunspot activity I think a decade or two in advance...and they said this probably puts to bed the idea of another Maunder Minimum for the upcoming decades.

In my opinion it's all just too complicated for anyone to give a really sharp picture of what the upcoming season will bring. I would just love to see some studies done on accuracy of winters from various sources...and I wonder if anyone at all would come out a "winner" in that race. One thing I think most of us know is that Accuweather is probably the most "un-accu" weather service in the country in terms of weather prediction...but they certainly score 100% in the hype department!

Michael Norell

Rancho Mirage, California | 33°44' N 116°25' W | 287 ft | z10a | avg Jan 43/70F | Jul 78/108F avg | Weather Station KCARANCH310

previously Big Pine Key, Florida | 24°40' N 81°21' W | 4.5 ft. | z12a | Calcareous substrate | avg annual min. approx 52F | avg Jan 65/75F | Jul 83/90 | extreme min approx 41F

previously Natchez, Mississippi | 31°33' N 91°24' W | 220 ft.| z9a | Downtown/river-adjacent | Loess substrate | avg annual min. 23F | Jan 43/61F | Jul 73/93F | extreme min 2.5F (1899); previously Los Angeles, California (multiple locations)

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Yea, Cher, you right. Dem sun spots be hidin'.

For the reasons Keith mentions; i.e., in a mathematically chaotic system (read 10,000 variables beyond "indeterminate")

you have to give more weight to the "weightier" variables like solar activity. Local phenomena aside, things already

happening globally: http://www.thelocal.de/society/20091020-22693.html make me fearful that this winter is gonna be a

bad one, on balance, for the northern hemisphere.

Heating oil futures, anyone?

Steve

USDA Zone 9a/b, AHS Heat Zone 9, Sunset Zone 28

49'/14m above sea level, 25mi/40km to Galveston Bay

Long-term average rainfall 47.84"/1215mm

Near-term (7yr) average rainfall 55.44"/1410mm

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Another factor is the temperature of the pacific in general ( not just el nino/la nina) and it is in a cooling phase which also diminshes temperatures globally.

Put together low sunpsot activity and cooling pacific and you can bet we will have a cold winter.

However, thanks to global warming it will not be like a mini ice age as global warming is offsetting a lot of the cooling caused by the above.

When sunpot activity goes up again, the problem will be that global warming will jump into a new upward phase at an accelerated rate.

Resident in Bristol UK.

Webshop for hardy palms and hybrid seeds www.hardy-palms.co.uk

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Another factor is the temperature of the pacific in general ( not just el nino/la nina) and it is in a cooling phase which also diminshes temperatures globally.

Put together low sunpsot activity and cooling pacific and you can bet we will have a cold winter.

However, thanks to global warming it will not be like a mini ice age as global warming is offsetting a lot of the cooling caused by the above.

When sunpot activity goes up again, the problem will be that global warming will jump into a new upward phase at an accelerated rate.

Good point, Nigel. I believe we are in uncharted territory but continue to read explanations\ predictions for heavy rainfall in California. :mrlooney: regardless of ENSO phase.

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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Another factor is the temperature of the pacific in general ( not just el nino/la nina) and it is in a cooling phase which also diminshes temperatures globally.

Put together low sunpsot activity and cooling pacific and you can bet we will have a cold winter.

However, thanks to global warming it will not be like a mini ice age as global warming is offsetting a lot of the cooling caused by the above.

When sunpot activity goes up again, the problem will be that global warming will jump into a new upward phase at an accelerated rate.

Nigel,

I don´t want to start another global warming debate, the last one I was involved in here got kicked off. But, the issue still remains if CO2 in the atmosphere and manmade contributions to it´s increase really can force the worlds climate to change. A lot of people say no. In fact I recently read some very interesting information pointing to the argument that the oceans are the driver of world climate not the air. In fact you could consider the oceans as part of the atmosphere on our planet. When one looks at the composition of the atmosphere it seems to me strange that the small percentage of CO2 could have such an impact. Personally I can see no evidence that we are not in an interglacial period. And, that means that another ice age will come. The sun has to be the main driver of our climate. Without it we would be just a cold rock spining around the galaxy.The main point is that the ocean temperatures are controlled by the sun and that a cooler or warmer ocean does impact surface temperatures. But, the ocean tempertures are not affected by the air temperatures.

Composition of Earth's atmosphere, as per NASA, NASA on the atmosphere

The atmosphere is primarily composed of Nitrogen (N2, 78%), Oxygen (O2, 21%), and Argon (Ar, 1%). A myriad of other very influential components are also present which include the water (H2O, 0 - 7%), "greenhouse" gases or Ozone (O, 0 - 0.01%), and Carbon Dioxide (CO2, 0.01-0.1%).

Now if someone wants to get into a Climate Change debate the place to do so is at Palmpedia´s Let´s Talk Story forum.

dk

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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Don, as you know, neither side has produced a conclusive case to prove or disprove either way.

Ultimately, if we decide that the case against global warming is the right one ( without 100% proof ) and decide to do nothing about it ,then we are playing russian roulette with the planet.

Resident in Bristol UK.

Webshop for hardy palms and hybrid seeds www.hardy-palms.co.uk

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Nigel,

I think that what is a more important focus is not climate change. The climate has always changed and always will and for the most part we can do little about it if anything. But, we can take better care of the planet. We can manage our resources better. We can provide better living conditions for the world´s people. We can be better stewards of our world and should be. And, if this mitigates man made contributions to climate change great. But, I do not agree that scare tactics used by many that the sky is falling and world will come to an end is the way things should be done. When I hear things like the this may be the first time in 5,000 years that the artic ice at the north pole has melted I have to be real skeptical. How could anyone say this seriously. We have only been able to observe the ice levels levels at the north pole for less than a century. We do know that birch trees used to grow in what is now the artic circle. They sure do not grow there today. Here in Brazil they love to say that the Amazon forest will turn into cerrado due to global warming. It has turned into cerrado before, not due to global warming but due to the ice ages. That is except the area from Manaus to the Andes which was still in tropical forest.

I guess to sum thing up what is important is to take care of our home, not to worry about whether it is getting warmer or cooler.

dk

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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More evidence this is gonna be a cold one.

http://www.iceagenow.com/Record_Lows_2009.htm

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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Keith,

Isn´t that weather story from last January? You got me worried as I will be going to the States in a few weeks.

dk

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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Keith,

Isn´t that weather story from last January? You got me worried as I will be going to the States in a few weeks.

dk

Yes, sorry. Wrong link. Here is the correct one. It is corrected above now as well.

http://www.iceagenow.com/Record_Lows_2009.htm

In my post I sometimes express "my" opinion. Warning, it may differ from "your" opinion. If so, please do not feel insulted, just state your own if you wish. Any data in this post is provided 'as is' and in no event shall I be liable for any damages, including, without limitation, damages resulting from accuracy or lack thereof, insult, or any other damages

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The lack of solar activity may be over-shadowed by ENSO. The Pacific continues to warm as El Nino strengthens. El Nino is good for the southern half of the nation by providing steady rainfall & mild temps.

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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Happ,

Every once in a while I get into checking on climate data on the internet. Since we have only recently started to have more reliable methods of measuring what is going on with the climate it will be intersting what the future brings.

dk

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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Happ,

Every once in a while I get into checking on climate data on the internet. Since we have only recently started to have more reliable methods of measuring what is going on with the climate it will be intersting what the future brings.

dk

Hey Don,

Also there are an array of factors that influence the atmosphere but the oceans play a pretty significant role. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been in a long-term cool phrase that could undermine ENSO. El Nino events historically produce warmth & moisture [at least in the mid-latitudes] but anything is possible. The equatorial Pacific is really heating up right now. How does that heat effect the Amazon, Don?

Edited by happ

Los Angeles/Pasadena

34° 10' N   118° 18' W

Elevation: 910'/278m

January Average Hi/Lo: 69F/50F

July Average Hi/Lo: 88F/66F

Average Rainfall: 19"/48cm

USDA 11/Sunset 23

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?MTW

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Happ,

The El Niño produces a drier Western Amazonia. We had record rainfall during the rainy season this year due to the influence of the La Niña. Just about the time the dry season set in the regime flipped over to El Niño and the rainfall has been about 50 percent of normal since then. Not that this will make a termendous difference for the year as the first six months were more than 25 percent above normal. We had rain today, which is a geat relief from the heat. By the end of the 3 or 4 month dry season is it nice to have the moderating effect of the rain. Below is the current map of weather over Brazil. You can see how the humidity from Amazonia flows down over the country creating weather to the south. The heavy rains in the area in blue,, which is over Bahia and Espirito Santos. But, this week further to the south in Sao Paulo has been real wet. supposedly is also an impact of El Niño during this season of the year. In recoreded time since the El Niño has been followed the stronger the occurance the drier the climate in our region. Amazonia is major influence on weather across Brazil. I guess it is sort of like the influence the Gulf of Mexico has in parts of the USA pumping moisture into other areas.

dk

BrazilOct31.gif

Don Kittelson

 

LIFE ON THE RIO NEGRO

03° 06' 07'' South 60° 01' 30'' West

Altitude 92 Meters / 308 feet above sea level

1,500 kms / 932 miles to the mouth of the Amazon River

 

Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil - A Cidade da Floresta

Where the world´s largest Tropical Rainforest embraces the Greatest Rivers in the World. .

82331.gif

 

Click here to visit Amazonas

amazonas2.jpg

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  • 2 weeks later...

Afternoon everyone I see we are a bit worried about what mother nature is going to do this year to be honest we have no idea what she will do all these

post are just guess on what will happen or not I did some looking around myself to see what was going on

This was from NOAA

One interesting aspect of solar cycles is that the sun went through a period of sunspot inactivity from about 1645 to 1715. This period of sunspot minima is called the Maunder Minimum. Sunspots were measured during this time frame, although the more detailed, daily measurements began in 1749. The "Little Ice Age" occurred over parts of Earth during the Maunder Minimum. So the question remains, do solar minimums help to create periods of cooler than normal weather, and do solar maximums help to cause drought over sections of Earth? This question is not easily answered due to the immensely complex interaction between our atmosphere, land and oceans. In addition, there is evidence that some of the major ice ages Earth has experienced were caused by Earth being deviated from its "average" 23.5 degrees tilt on its axis. The Earth has tilted anywhere from near 22 degrees to 24.5 degrees on its axis. The number of sunspots alone does not alter the overall solar emissions much at all. However, the increased/decreased magnetic activity which accompanies sunspot maxima/minima directly influences the amount of ultraviolet radiation which moves through the upper atmosphere.

all these sites say this or that will happen are just plain nonsense like someone told me don't believe what you read it could be very misleading

about the little ice age there was volcanic activity back then and lack of sunspots if this indeed happen just added to this cooling so in all there needs to

be more data to support this until then i await to see if this is true or not here's the link if you want to read the whole story

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/astro/sunspots.php

Matthew Albach

Pinellas Park FLorida

USDA zone 10a

sunset zone 26

heat zone   10

mostly frost free most years.

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I won't know who is most "spot on" until next April if and when I'll be taking inventory of any frost-blasted fronds. I've got way too many Zone 11 & 12 palms & other severely cold intolerant stuff to stand any quantity of 20's & 30s or even too many lower 40's. We all have pushed the envelope so to speak. I hated to not try something different in palms and all manner of tropical plants and all of them are really mainland USA conservatory subjects, so I'm going to lose the total tropic look one of these winters. The fact is, 1982 was our last bad winter down this far south on the Florida penninsula and it cost me plenty of time & $$$ for replanting. However, back then, this area had minimal heat-island effects, wasn't criscrossed with asphalt roads & hundreds of pseudotropical subdivisions, and wasn't irrigated all over the place so the nights in the 20's (and I remember nights in the lower 20's here in southern Broward County when the water was frozen in the pipes!)

Temperatures like that haven't been felt by plants here in at least 25 years if not more. What I'm saying is that I've had a been run and I'll be toasted again sure as God made little green apples (and I hate that cliche.) Hell, we haven't even had a frost in 20 years, which I always saw here at least a few times a winter.

So Fla. tropical plant lovers have been spoiled, and I have been among the most unrealistically spoiled. I've got breadfruit trees and Welfia regia palms thriving way north of where the SHOULD be growing. Yes, I'll get freeze-blasted plants dead to the roots and this here property will look worse than when Hurr. Wilma ransacked it.

What a wide-eyed surprised look I'll have on my ugly mug that hateful winter morning in 20--! I won't be able to say that I wasn't warned, that's for sure!

Late.

Pablo

Paul, The Palm Doctor @ http://www.thewisegardener.com

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