Floridians....Heads Up

[gsn]

Most areas seem about 10+ degrees above what was forecast for this morning, even well inland. It seems that the dew points are higher than predicted so the air did not cool as much. The dew points for tonight are predicted as low 11 in the Brandon area, and into the teens for Pinellas. I have never seen them that low.

Lets hope not.

popper1,

How I wish that were true 37.9F here in Titusville this morning!

Amazing that Larry in Tarpon Springs seems to have had a low of 51.3F (?) that is close to a 14 degree difference.

Seems like the immediate Tampa Bay area trumped even lattitude last night,as some areas way south on the east coast were considerably colder, for whatever reason?

So I guess I need to decide do I move WEST or WAY,WAY south,or just crawl in Rays' hole and never come out?

Good luck everyone tonight!

[Eric in Orlando]

It was predicted to be 35 here last night and it only dropped to 41, hopefully it will be a few degrees warmer tonight, too.

[PalmatierMeg]

Looking at all the predictions for Tampa/St. Pete I have a glimmer of hope for tomorrow a.m., despite the dire local forecasts. I've seen predicted lows for Cape Coral/Ft. Myers west of US 41 of 31F, 32F & 33F for Thursday & 34F or 36F for Friday.

Last night I set out 2 remote thermometers and will monitor the frightful truth. And, of course, we will cover our palms for the 3rd time in 3 weeks with a bevy of Goodwill linens we purchased last weekend in anticipation of this dire event. Already the Areca concinna looks like a pale green balloon in its flannel wrap. Last night I pulled in the most sensitive potted plants. The rest will follow tonight. Sheesh, what a winter.

Good luck to all,

Meg

[jasons]

The west coast will be warmer in this event because of the position of the High pressure to the north. The flow today into tonight will be from the NW - this will act to moderate temps somewhat along the immediate west coast, and why locales on the east coast will be colder. The flow along the east coast will be offshore, as opposed to onshore, so the warm Atlantic will be less of a factor this time around.

As we have seen the past, it doesn't always work out that way - if the flow is from the NE then we would see the opposite affect. So I wouldn't base any moving decisions based on a couple of events.

I'm not going to mince words, this one will be a doozie. No question. It will be a dry advective freeze.

I see a glimmer of hope along the immediate west coast because of the NW flow - this will help some.

It could be quite possible for PBI to record a freeze with this event and St. Pete to stay above freezing.

Edited February 4, 2009 by jasons

[gsn]

The west coast will be warmer in this event because of the position of the High pressure to the north. The flow today into tonight will be from the NW - this will act to moderate temps somewhat along the immediate west coast, and why locales on the east coast will be colder. The flow along the east coast will be offshore, as opposed to onshore, so the warm Atlantic will be less of a factor this time around.

As we have seen the past, it doesn't always work out that way - if the flow is from the NE then we would see the opposite affect. So I wouldn't base any moving decisions based on a couple of events.

I'm not going to mince words, this one will be a doozie. No question. It will be a dry advective freeze.

I see a glimmer of hope along the immediate west coast because of the NW flow - this will help some.

It could be quite possible for PBI to record a freeze with this event and St. Pete to stay above freezing.

jasons,

It was a joke about moving, however last time around was exactly the same situation,with the location of the high ,also with the winds from the NW ,or lack there of durning the last event,as it pretty much died .If I was actually going to move it would be somewhere where a freeze was not even a remote possibility!

I would maintain that not all, but most cold fronts making it to Florida come in at an angle from the NW.The winds might eventually shift to the North ,or even somewhat NE at some point after the front has passed. But in general this is the pattern of fronts entering Florida. With a front approaching the winds are usually out of the SW then start to clock around to the W then NW ,then N. This is almost like clockwork,and the general pattern of most cold fronts hitting Florida! At least that has been my observations,I am no meterologist,(thank god) but my work involves me knowing a little bit about, and paying attention to our weather!

Edited February 4, 2009 by gsn

[FRITO]

last night was wierd up here in North florida. strong winds and temps DROPPED soon as sun disapeared. it was about 38 degrees at 2 am. I found out my meter bottomed out at 27.9....after I woke up this morning.

this is a strong front.

NWS prediciting 17 tonight and 18 the next night. high of only 45 predicted today.

[steve 9atx]

Good luck Floridians.

It looks like you're going to get clobbered the next two nights.

You're getting the front I usually get.

Steve

[jasons]

Hey gsn - just giving you a hard time and only kidding

As far a fronts & weather --

Fronts east of the Mississippi will almost always come down from a NW trajectory. Sometimes the front itself will come-in from the NE - called a "backdoor front" - but they are more rare.

As far as winds around a front - it gets complicated and hard to sum-up in a couple of paragraphs without graphics.

In the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, winds almost always follow a pattern of changing in a clockwise direction as systems pass. The change/evolution depends on how fast the pattern is changing (this is called a progressive pattern). In general, it's also more active & prevalent the further north you go. Since Florida is so far south, this pattern is mostly confined from late fall to early spring.

As far as what the wind direction will be right behind the front - it's not just the placement of the high that determines this. It's really more how it's aligned to a low pressure system (visually, at the "top" or northern end of the front) and where the axis of the high pressure center is. For Florida - generally, if the high pressure is diving straight down the plains and the axis of the high is to your west over the Gulf (and also far enough south), the flow will be from the NW.

But if the axis of the high is further east and/or further north than Florida (over, say, Atlanta), then winds behind the front will very quickly swing around to the NE, even if the front itself came from the NW or due north. This happens all the time in Texas as we very rarely have a high centered west of us.

Again, it's hard to explain all this without visuals, but I hope it makes sense.

[gsn]

As far a fronts & weather --

Fronts east of the Mississippi will almost always come down from a NW trajectory. Sometimes the front itself will come-in from the NE - called a "backdoor front" - but they are more rare.

As far as winds around a front - it gets complicated and hard to sum-up in a couple of paragraphs without graphics.

In the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, winds almost always follow a pattern of changing in a clockwise direction as systems pass. The change/evolution depends on how fast the pattern is changing (this is called a progressive pattern). In general, it's also more active & prevalent the further north you go. Since Florida is so far south, this pattern is mostly confined from late fall to early spring.

Isn't that pretty much what I said? And I also did it without graphics/visuals or a meterology degree!

Edited February 4, 2009 by gsn

[www.dadluvsu.com]

My tarp isn't doing so well with the 30 mph wind gusts... Where o where is summer?

[jasons]

gsn, I just tried to provide some insight on why (not just the what).

I don't have a degree in Meteorology, but I do have an English degree, so to me, there's a big difference in the what vs. why & how

Edited February 4, 2009 by jasons

[falcon1988]

Just want to wish everyone good luck tonight hopefully things will improve but for one

My coconut palm is a goner this time my forecast keeps going up and down and then up

for my area its

NWS

tonight 34

Friday 36

weather.com

tonight 35

Friday 37

I know my archo's will be fine the foxtails will be fine and my bottle might get some damage along with the spindle

Hurricane will get damage as well maybe not but just saying my kentias will be fine foxy ladies will be fine to them this

cakewalk sure do want spring/summer come right now again wish everyone the best of luck and try to get some rest tonight

regards

[Keith N Tampa (ex SoJax)]

So far it's climbed to a whopping 44f here at my house! For the record, the average low this time of year at the airport (a cool spot for the region) is 45. I might make it to the average low for the afternoon high. I consider the wind my friend. If it stops, I might get frost and that will certainly worsen things. I suspect I'll see lower temps tonight than I did in the last freeze event, but with the dewpoint @ 7F, I don't expect frost tonight. Tonight is one of those nights that ensures that there will not be large Coconuts, Royals, or other zone 10 pretties in my neighborhood (unless they are used as annuals!) Come on spring!!!! I think she's going to stick her head in the door Saturday. I hope she stays a while.

[tank]

Sweet! The updated forecast is for 16F for Gainesville and dropping. Always a good sign when they start dropping the temps as the cold event nears . I pine for the days of 80F....oh wait, that was last week.

[Keith N Tampa (ex SoJax)]

Jason, nice pus....um... I mean kitties! Cute little buggers. I share my house with 2.

The little Arenga micrantha I got from you when we were out at Merrill's place last year survived the last freeze without incident. I suppose it's in for an even bigger test tonight.

[ZoneTenNut]

Only got to 63.6F here today. Wind has been howling all day from the NW and temp is now starting the downward spiral. If some of these forecasts hold true, it could be my coldest night since I moved here, 11 years ago. Been deep watering everything the last couple days, so hoping that it gives enough edge to some of my more sensitive stuff. Everything still looks shabby around here from the cold snap we just had. Dreaming of the return of heat and the good times.

[phatmiata]

high for today was only 52F, and the predicted low is 27F

[tank]

Jason, nice pus....um... I mean kitties! Cute little buggers. I share my house with 2.

The little Arenga micrantha I got from you when we were out at Merrill's place last year survived the last freeze without incident. I suppose it's in for an even bigger test tonight.

Who's not a sucker for cute kitties?

Good luck with the micrantha. If any of the rest of mine survive tonight I might have a fire sale. I am afraid my larger one that is planted out may give up the ghost this year, just as it was starting to come back from last year's freeze. Only so much will fit in the greenhouse, the rest will have to fend for themselves.

[ZoneTenNut]

Oh Man! Weather Channel has me at 29F for a low tonight. Accuweather at 35F, Weather Underground at 29F and NWS at 30F. I sure hope Accuweather is right. Never thought I'd be hoping for 35F!!!!

[SunnyFl]

I'm not going to mince words, this one will be a doozie. No question. It will be a dry advective freeze.

I see a glimmer of hope along the immediate west coast because of the NW flow - this will help some.

It could be quite possible for PBI to record a freeze with this event and St. Pete to stay above freezing.

Lord I hope so - the part about St. Pete staying above freezing, not the part about PBI getting a freeze! It looks like this will be zone-breaker. I made sure to enjoy looking up at the big phat coconuts and the ravenala on 70th Ave. on my way to work this morning. Will they be alive tomorrow.....

RANT: TWC just awhile ago had a map of FL and was announcing "HARD FREEZE FOR THE ENTIRE STATE!" Hey TWC - cut the hype! We're worried enough. There is nothing in the NWS forecast to support a hard freeze over the entire state - and if you meant north of FL, then say so. Although this one is going hurt, majorly.

Here's the scary part, as if we needed more: the high in Pinellas Park around 12:30 this afternoon was 54. NOT a good sign....

NWS currently forecasting:

West Palm Beach 30F

Lealman 33F

Tarpon Springs 33F

Clutching at straws here......

Meanwhile, I got booted from work today for being very sick, feverish and icky for the last 2 days. I blame the cold wx. grrr.

[Guest LeftCoastAngler]

hah. I've got you all beat here in Brandon with the NWS predicting a scorching 23F for tommorrow morning. What I thought might make it from the last... Definatley won't now. A fierce 26F for the following morning... It'll be warming up!

~LCA.

[Keith N Tampa (ex SoJax)]

HERE'S ONE WAY TO DEAL WITH IT....

[Walt]

I recieved this email dispatch from a retired meteorologist this afternoon:

It appears that Florida will see the coldest minimum temperature since February 5, 1996. At 3:00 pm dewpoint temperatures have crashed into the single digits north, single digits to teens central, 20's and 30's south and 40's in the Keys.

We will see a hard advection (windy) freeze tonight across the panhandle north and north peninsula. The hard freeze will extend southward through the inland rural central peninsula and inland rural south peninsula, down to approximately the latitude of Immokalee. Coastal areas of the central peninsula will dip below freezing with near freezing in coastal areas of the south. Only the urban SE coastal areas and the Keys will escape a freeze.

Minimum temperature will dip to the low to mid teens across the panhandle north and north peninsula, mid teens to low 20's inland rural areas of the central peninsula, low to mid 20's inland rural areas of the south peninsula down to approximately the latitude of Immokalee, upper 20's to low 30's in inland rural areas of the Everglades.

Urban areas of the central peninsula will see the mid to upper 20's, urban coastal areas of the central peninsula will see low 30's.

Urban areas of the south peninsula will see upper 20's to low 30's, urban areas of the SW and SE coasts will see low to mid 30's, with upper 30's to upper 40's on the Keys.

With the wind staying up between 10-20 mph during the overnight hours wind chill temperatures will be between 5-10 deg north, 10-15 deg central, 15-25 deg south, 30's in the Keys. With the wind, cold protection of ornamental plants, agriculture and citrus crops will be difficult. Tropical fish farms are also in harms way.

[FRITO]

currently 40 degrees at almost 6 pm. Dew point 4 degrees!!!

NNW winds at 17mph

low predicted to be 18.

Bismarkia,Livistonias and queens will be tested once again.

for anyone interested:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/driving/int...archbox_localwx

Edited February 4, 2009 by FRITO

[spockvr6]

NWS currently forecasting:

West Palm Beach 30F

Lealman 33F

Tarpon Springs 33F

Clutching at straws here......

I surely hope NWS is right...as weather.com is showing 27F for tonight!

NWS is showing winds staying stiff and NW, thus their more favorable forecast.

[spockvr6]

At 630PM...currently 43F with a dewpoint of 26F at my station in Tarpon Springs..........this looks rough! Its a good thing I am 3000 miles away and dont have to experience this first hand!

[junglegalfla]

Currently 42.7 here in St. Pete with a dew point of 27.6. Here is hoping for the best! I hope my landscape doesn't change too much. I feel better than most in FL, still doesn't make me feel much better I like tropical prettiness to abound & not live in a bubble. Good luck my friends, I am off to a concert to forget about all this.

[gsn]

Winds over here on the east coast have laid down considerably, sustained dancing around 5 MPH

Portending a possible radiational event here unless they pick back up?

43.4F now 6:45 PM dew point 18F

Edited February 4, 2009 by gsn

[spockvr6]

Bren-

It looks like one of the monkeys from Keith's post has wisely made it to your avatar!

As mentioned before, I am not home right now, so I experience no evil! My heads in the sand and Ill see any carnage when I get home on Froday night.

[spockvr6]

So far, the NWS hour by hour is holding up.....I am almost spot on their predictions for 7PM temp/dewpoint.....

[floridagrower]

This might be our first real cold test in a long time. The news has already said this was the worst winter overall since 1998! It's time to separate the men from the Boys.

[spockvr6]

It's time to separate the men from the Boys.

[gsn]

This might be our first real cold test in a long time. The news has already said this was the worst winter overall since 1998! It's time to separate the men from the Boys.

men from the boys???? Hell I am little girl when it comes to this freezing winter weather stuff!

[ZoneTenNut]

Wind is down to almost nothing here now and currently 55.3F.

[ZoneTenNut]

54.9F and dropping like a rock.

[BobbyinNY]

If it makes you guys feel any better, it's currently 27f here, forecast to drop to 14f.

[spockvr6]

OK....now I know that 33F for my place is extremely unlikely as I see NWS is forecasting Bokeelia for 34F. No way I will be 33F if they are 34F.

[PalmatierMeg]

Ow, ow, ow. I just spent 2-1/2 hours moving, covering, wrapping plants in 25-30 mhp winds. I verge on hypothermia. My hands are freezing, my ears ache, my throat's scratchy & I got the sniffles. Current temp on the north side of the old homestead is 48.6F. TWC says my low will be 31F. This is the worst cold spell yet. I hope all my hard work yields live palms.

Take care and good luck fellow Floridians.

[tropical1]

Two weeks from now, I plan to drive south down the peninsula and continue driving until there is minimal damage. At that location, I will plan to purchase property for my retirement. Hopefully, I will not have to go to the Keys. Perhaps, Pine Island will be spared.

[FRITO]

im loving alll my hardy palms right now!