Gustav

[tank]

Looks to turn into a Hurricane, hit Cuba and then drift into the Gulf, although the models are all over the place, so who knows what will happen. Might impact Florida by Saturday or Sunday.

[palmislandRandy]

:badday: again

[bubba]

Jason, Look's dangerous but it definitely looks South.Hopefully way Gulf South.Got any PSU Models?

[SubTropicRay]

According to the morning reports, this will not be a Florida storm. They say this with 40% certainty.

[bubba]

I just found Jason's Crown Weather site under Fay and it is outstanding.It is already dealing with what is behind Gustav.Hey Jason,you got anymore of that stuff!

[tank]

I just found Jason's Crown Weather site under Fay and it is outstanding.It is already dealing with what is behind Gustav.Hey Jason,you got anymore of that stuff!

I think right now Gustav could still cause a problem for Florida.

Here is the synopsis from the Crown Weather Guy, who has been very accurate the for the past few years that I have been visiting his site:

"Beyond late Saturday night, the global models have different ideas on where they want to track Gustav. The Canadian model is forecasting a landfall on the central Texas coast on Labor Day. The NOGAPS model is forecasting a landfall on the central Gulf Coast next Tuesday. The European model is forecasting a northern Mexico landfall around next Tuesday. The overall synoptic situation once Gustav gets into the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend will highly depend on the timing of a departing eastern trough of low pressure and a building ridge of high pressure that will move in behind the departing trough. If the departing trough is able to pick up Gustav, then a eastern Gulf Coast hit may occur as early as Labor Day. If the trough of low pressure leaves Gustav behind and the ridge of high pressure pushes Gustav further west, then a central or western Gulf Coast hit may occur late Labor Day or next Tuesday. Therefore, all interests along the entire Gulf Coast should pay close attention to the forecast for Gustav. "

Bubba,

Here is the SFWMD modeling site:

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=28...;_schema=PORTAL

Click on the "Models" tab.

I like Ray's 40% certainty. Sounds about right.

[bubba]

Another great site! Thank you

[gsn]

According to the morning reports, this will not be a Florida storm. They say this with 40% certainty.

This encourages me, as they got the TRACK of Fay so RIGHT!

They also predicted that it would totally stop for 12 hours or more,TWO times ,yeah right!

Weathermen and their predictions!

Unfortunately, it will do as it will do,no matter what the weathermen SAYS it will do!

[tank]

I just found Jason's Crown Weather site under Fay and it is outstanding.It is already dealing with what is behind Gustav.Hey Jason,you got anymore of that stuff!

Bubba,

The current GFDL model has Gustav hitting New Orleans as a Cat 4 hurricane.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

Probably a very good thing that its predicting this now as it is more than likely wrong.

Also, I don't think the GFDL model is good at predicting intensity.

Interesting nonetheless.

Things should get even more exciting with the potential for a couple more storms forming in the atlantic while Gustav is hanging out in the Gulf.

[_Keith]

Four of the six models have that baby pointing at Louisiana. CRAP.

I am praying Bubba is right, and the models are wrong.

[steve 9atx]

This one scares the p#ss out of me: cat 5 at landfall. I can picture my Labor Day weekend spent boarding up windows.....

Steve

[bubba]

The guy on Crown Weather sees it as a Strong Cat Four that hits South of Mexico.

[steve 9atx]

Bubbalouie

By "South of Mexico", do you mean Belize?

Steve

[_Keith]

This jsut ain't pretty. Won't be any peaceful nights sleep this week.

[bubba]

Those Cat 5's and bad 4's have minds of their own. I remember Andrew consistently defied all forecasts of Northward turns and churned straight on a rope where it so chose.This is simply my rank amateur/gut but I do not see Gustav as a 4 or 5 hitting US.And Steve,I do not see this effecting your fishing.

[_Keith]

Those Cat 5's and bad 4's have minds of their own. I remember Andrew consistently defied all forecasts of Northward turns and churned straight on a rope where it so chose.This is simply my rank amateur/gut but I do not see Gustav as a 4 or 5 hitting US.And Steve,I do not see this effecting your fishing.

You are right. I distinctly remember giving a talk at a luncheon in New Orleans on a Thursday along with a peer who lived there. We had drinks that evening before heading home. Neither of us had a worry in the world, because even though there was a giant storm in the gulf all of the predictions were for it to hit well to our east in Florida. Three days later New Orleans was changed forever when Katrina came ashore west of its earlier predicted path.

[steve 9atx]

Bubba

You never cease to impress!

A man that can read his own entrails!

I hope you're right, son.

Steve

[FRITO]

The weather channel is already talking about all the oil rigs in the gulf and are 'tracking' the price of oil per barrel and at the pump....

[bubba]

Just a guess/gut and I hope I am right.Katrina was not a 5 when it hit was it?Poor New Orleans was just sitting there with the Lake 8 feet above it and bad dikes. A horrible accident waiting to happen.(see 1928 Lake O storm)

[SubTropicRay]

I'm hoping for the best wherever it ends up.

[_Keith]

Heads up MS, AL, and FL. Latest projections say this thing will go in almost right on Katrina's path on the LA/MS border, but my bet is the projections keep moving towards the east.

[_Keith]

Just a guess/gut and I hope I am right.Katrina was not a 5 when it hit was it?Poor New Orleans was just sitting there with the Lake 8 feet above it and bad dikes. A horrible accident waiting to happen.(see 1928 Lake O storm)

The winds and categories of Hurricanes are difficult to be precise about, but one way that is easy to measure hurricane intensity is this one.

Most intense landfalling U.S. hurricanes

Intensity is measured solely by central pressure Rank Hurricane Season Landfall pressure

1 "Labor Day" 1935 892 mbar (hPa)

2 Camille 1969 909 mbar (hPa)

3 Katrina 2005 920 mbar (hPa)

4 Andrew 1992 922 mbar (hPa)

5 "Indianola" 1886 925 mbar (hPa)

6 "Florida Keys" 1919 927 mbar (hPa)

7 "Okeechobee" 1928 929 mbar (hPa)

8 Donna 1960 930 mbar (hPa)

9 Carla 1961 931 mbar (hPa)

10 Hugo 1989 934 mbar (hPa)

Source: National Hurricane Center

In the end, all of these storms did, and any Cat 4 and above will do catastrophic damage.

Note - Katrina flooding in New Orleans got most of the press, but the damage that storm did in other Louisiana areas and in MS was almost beyond belief. It caused significant damage to coastal area all the way to the Florida Panhandle.

[PricklyPearSATX]

As usual, the landfall computer models keep changing for Gus.

I think the forecast through Friday is accurate.

It will stay in the Carribean and will gain strength.

After that, I think they can get a better idea of where it will go.

At this point, it seems like every time a storm reorrients itself a bit, they simply extrapolate the final result.

There is also the question of ongoing and possibly changing highs and lows within the Gulf and the Gulf Coast area.

I don't even know how highs and lows steer hurricanes anyway, I guess that's what those computer models are for.

[_Keith]

Latest 5 day Cone.

[PricklyPearSATX]

Found a picture of the High that's keeping Gustav to the south--- for now. From Crown Weather website.

Excerpts from the Hurricane Center's most recent report:

THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.

DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM

THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN

ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD TO

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A

GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN 2-3 DAYS...THE RIDGE IS

FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD

THE NORTHWEST...TAKING GUSTAV OVER OR VERY NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND

INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY DAY 5...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE

NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS COULD WEAKEN RESULTING IN

A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. IN GENERAL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE

NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

[tank]

Tropics are getting interesting. Good chance of having 3 named storms simultaneously active in the gulf and the atlantic. TD8 looks like it will produce some nice surf for the east coast. Hopefully thats it.

Keeping my fingers crossed hoping that the downward trend in Gustav's intensity will continue.

[_Keith]

This is not looking good. Do you see that last red dot labled 8am Tuesday. Well, that is just about right on top of my house. Time to stock up on beer I guess.

[_Keith]

As we are all trying to keep our humor down here, while we calmly panic, this has been circulating. We all got a good nervouse chuckle over it.

Dean, feel free to delete this if found too offensive.

[PalmatierMeg]

Sometimes if we don't laugh we'd cry. Now there's Hanna (go to Montana) out there. Good luck, Keith.

[palmsrgreat]

Ok, well this isn't looking that great for my travel plans to the LSU opener!!

I-10 Houston to Baton Rouge roundtrip leaving Fri @4pm.

I hope this holds out until I return on Sunday night

[_Keith]

Ok, well this isn't looking that great for my travel plans to the LSU opener!!

I-10 Houston to Baton Rouge roundtrip leaving Fri @4pm.

I hope this holds out until I return on Sunday night

If routes hold the same, you might want to consider upping your departure to Sunday morning.

[bubba]

I know everyone on this Board is collectively praying for Gustav to weaken and not effect Keith or anybody.

[realarch]

Good luck you guys, the drill gets old , but none the less terrifying.

Tim

[falcon1988]

Hi everyone, I just wanted to say man I hate hurricane season. (time to go get some ativan LOL)

Good luck to everyone on the gulf coast Hope this hurricane weakens as I read the forecast from NHC

there is some good news to this wind shear is going to increase hopefully it will weaken this

storm.

Be safe I am praying for the best

Regards

[_Keith]

Ok, well this isn't looking that great for my travel plans to the LSU opener!!

I-10 Houston to Baton Rouge roundtrip leaving Fri @4pm.

I hope this holds out until I return on Sunday night

If routes hold the same, you might want to consider upping your departure to Sunday morning.

Michael, I just head the LSU game was moved up to 10am. No doubt to clear out in front of a possible New Orleans evacuation. Stay tuned.

[Kathryn]

It is still too early to know where this storm is going. I live in St. Charles Parish, which calls for evacuation early so that all the St. Charles, Jefferson, Orleans, St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parish residents (about 1.5 million) aren't on the same roads at the same time. St. Charles Parish will be calling for mandatory evacuation at noon tomorrow, but I will wait until Saturday evening or Sunday morning to decide if I will leave or stay. I hate to wish this on anyone else, but I really hope it doesn't have a big impact here.

Michael - Just forget about coming to the LSU game - I know that's hard to do. The traffic is already bad on I-10 out of New Orleans. I will be even worse between Baton Rouge and Houston on Saturday and Sunday.

[_Keith]

For all on the Gulf Coast, I just ran across the mother of all hurricane info websites.

http://www.bearpawsweather.com/tropical/index.html

Of course, none of the news is good, but bear in mind these models only have a 20% confidence this early in the game. Good news for us is it may yet go somewhere else. Bad news for somewhere else is it may yet go somewhere else.

[surgeon83]

Its been said, but its hard to tell anything at this point. If I'm not mistaken, the 5-day cone bounds possible locations within 66% probability. So there's a 33% chance it will fall out of the cone altogether one direction or another. If you're right in the center of the predicted cone 5 days out, I'd say you probably have a better chance of not being hit directly because the center of the cone is not likely to be perfectly accurate this far out.

That's no reason that the entire coast shouldn't be on alert right now, though.

The noaa site explains that the most useful information is the wind probability chart, because then you can see what the actual chances are you will experience winds of a certain speed overall. Supposedly it doesn't change as much with little changes in the projected path that might otherwise look dramatic.

[_Keith]

Its been said, but its hard to tell anything at this point. If I'm not mistaken, the 5-day cone bounds possible locations within 66% probability. So there's a 33% chance it will fall out of the cone altogether one direction or another. If you're right in the center of the predicted cone 5 days out, I'd say you probably have a better chance of not being hit directly because the center of the cone is not likely to be perfectly accurate this far out.

That's no reason that the entire coast shouldn't be on alert right now, though.

The noaa site explains that the most useful information is the wind probability chart, because then you can see what the actual chances are you will experience winds of a certain speed overall. Supposedly it doesn't change as much with little changes in the projected path that might otherwise look dramatic.

The confidence ratio in these predictions at this point are only 20% as for being right on target, but its coming somewhere. This will be a big storm. It can move quite a bit and still give us a pounding. So, being at the center of the cross hairs is not a great feeling.

[PricklyPearSATX]

Keith and Kathyrn:

My prayers are with you. As I know, both of you are undergoing emergency preparations for this hurricane.

My prayers are with anyone who is in path of this storm.

It doesn't look good.

All we can hope for is "wind shear"