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Florida Winter 2021-2022

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Palmarum

-Starting to move plants indoors-

Brrr...

 

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Rapha2343

Finally what I've been hoping and praying for since December last year: "cold weather when I'm in Florida in January" is happening. I'm not there yet... next week will arrive!

I confess that I was really really worried about not getting cold this time in the US. 

But I feel really sorry for those who traveled on December, they got extreme heat. 

Edited by Rapha2343
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Ubuntwo

Warm start to February? CFS has been leaning this way for weeks now.

cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_4.png.e7bf74400ccbfe1e9ce9b8d85ab3e0c1.png

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kinzyjr

Looks like the NOAA airport station got pretty chilly:

image.thumb.png.6d507759d4452f0efbd4d483a0fe6f20.png

Low temperatures in the yard ranged from 48F to 53F.

Meanwhile in Bartow...:

image.thumb.png.9500aeebd04974931876302fd29751ba.png

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bubba

What in the world Ryan! Are you growing Rambutan or being sarcastic! Highs in the mid 70sF/ lows in the mid-50’sF when we have been sweating our cahones off all winter! Finally some California weather!

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Hombre de Palmas

Although I physically missed the warm December I see the effects of the above average warmth now that I have returned.

My palms have carried on with their growth, continuing to push spears, and the newly open fronds are large and robust, including the Adonidias which are notoriously grumpy around here most Januaries. Coconuts around the neighborhood are fruiting heavily and exhibit no noticeable cold symptoms.  My Hamelia cuprea, while not flowering, is still green. It normally turns bronze and partially defoliates by now, only flushing out again in early March. My patens are in full growth mode and most surprisingly my Helliconia pssitacorum are in full vigor. They have normally turned brown and mostly given up the ghost by now. The Brunfelsia grandiflora in my yard is in the best flowering phase in my memory.

All of the mangoes in my area are as full of flowers as I have ever seen them, and they are much farther along than last year. The Taxodium distichum in my neighborhood is holding onto most of their needles, though they usually own their common name by this this time of the rolling year. Geiger trees have not defoliated and some are even blooming. Clerodendrum quadriloculare seem to be the exception to the rule as they appear to be a little behind where they were last year when it was a cooler period.

These are just my observations in my little corner of the universe. Hopefully this cold/cool spell over the next couple weeks will not set things back too much. I have a feeling we will revert back to a warm period in February after this relatively chilly period, as the macro trend is the trend until it isn't.

 

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Palmarum
7 hours ago, bubba said:

What in the world Ryan! Are you growing Rambutan or being sarcastic! Highs in the mid 70sF/ lows in the mid-50’sF when we have been sweating our cahones off all winter! Finally some California weather!

I wish I could grow Rambutan...

The forecast is for low 50sºF (for a couple days) with a breeze, which could mean sporadic high 40sºF, close enough for a few, very sensitive items and some unknowns. Including some fragile seedlings I potted up recently that I probably shouldn't have, but did so because December was so warm. But now... brrrr...

Ryan

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Aceraceae

cold palms meme fb.jpg

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Matthew92
2 hours ago, Aceraceae said:

cold palms meme fb.jpg

No problem with needle palm though haha

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Matthew92
21 hours ago, Ubuntwo said:

Warm start to February? CFS has been leaning this way for weeks now.

Ughh... wish we could at least have a semblance of seasons.

On the contrary, some meteorologists I follow and weather model guidance indicates this current colder period could last into early Feb.

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bubba

I guess I am rum dumb but this is fabulous weather…

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Matthew92

 

 

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JLM
2 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

 

 

Really wishing i had access to EPS. Is there any more local sources that you follow besides the Carolinas? Lol
I already know about Redzone but forgot the dudes name.

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Jimbean

Forecast to get to 42F Monday night.

Untitled.png

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palmsOrl
On 1/13/2022 at 10:55 PM, Ubuntwo said:

Warm start to February? CFS has been leaning this way for weeks now.

cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_4.png.e7bf74400ccbfe1e9ce9b8d85ab3e0c1.png

I'm rooting for a warm February.  

GOD BLESS THE USA

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Matthew92

Can't find the post, but a meteorologist I follow was saying that this colder pattern (as indicated by computer models and guidance) looks to last to around Feb 10th.

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bubba

Not sure I understand the Florida guys (Matthew, JLM and even Ryan although I suspect sarcasm) on this thread. After a summer-like December, Florida is finally getting some California weather.

I understand that north Florida may experience cold weather every year and So Fl occasionally, the imminent polar vortex vexingly predicted will give So Fl 70’s/50’s F weather. This actually does not approximate what I describe as California weather, which during winter can be described as “65/45F centric”. 

After 8 plus months of humid/hot weather, where we are lucky to see low temperatures in the upper 70’s F, a few weeks of “70/50 F California esque weather” (only meant positively!), is something to be highly appreciated. 
 

 

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ChristianStAug

As far as I can tell, guidance for 22-24th looks to be warming a tad for immediate coastal NE FL.  Almost out of frost range now. A couple model runs had some brutal outbreak for this time period time just a couple days ago. Of course chilly days only in the 50s. The cold airmass looks widespread in the SE and mid Atlantic but it doesn’t look brutal. It doesn’t look to be one of those situations where for example ATL is 10 degrees at night with an abrupt thermocline bleeding south into Florida. It looks more so as the average typical coldest weather of the year scenario. 

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ChristianStAug
4 hours ago, palmsOrl said:

I'm rooting for a warm February.  

GOD BLESS THE USA

I’m hoping in 15 days we can check the long range and start planting 2022’s palms

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Steve in Florida
On 1/14/2022 at 7:55 PM, Matthew92 said:

Ughh... wish we could at least have a semblance of seasons.

On the contrary, some meteorologists I follow and weather model guidance indicates this current colder period could last into early Feb.

There are four major weather models they follow.  Some transplanted weather forecasters are slow to learn that certain models have lower reliability for the Southeast. 

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Matthew92
1 hour ago, ChristianStAug said:

As far as I can tell, guidance for 22-24th looks to be warming a tad for immediate coastal NE FL.  Almost out of frost range now. A couple model runs had some brutal outbreak for this time period time just a couple days ago. Of course chilly days only in the 50s. The cold airmass looks widespread in the SE and mid Atlantic but it doesn’t look brutal. It doesn’t look to be one of those situations where for example ATL is 10 degrees at night with an abrupt thermocline bleeding south into Florida. It looks more so as the average typical coldest weather of the year scenario. 

Actually that period may have the greatest risk of a significant cold wave in that area.

cpc.thumb.JPG.805f960b445068cb0976e02cd9901bc7.JPG

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Matthew92

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bubba

This is not solid responsive information. A picture of a vague NOAA anomaly probability wave?

Followed thereafter by unknown YouTube weather forecasters struggling for clickbait?

I prefer GFS runs, which are less alarming but more accurate…

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Silas_Sancona
3 minutes ago, bubba said:

This is not solid responsive information. A picture of a vague NOAA anomaly probability wave?

Followed thereafter by unknown YouTube weather forecasters struggling for clickbait?

I prefer GFS runs, which are less alarming but more accurate…

:floor:  GFS?      ....That's the last thing you want to bet on..

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JLM

7day forecast by the NWS is showing upper 20's for lows late week. Rain chances are also overlapping freezing temps Friday night into Saturday morning, gonna be watching for that and see how that trends in the future. 

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JLM
7 minutes ago, bubba said:

This is not solid responsive information. A picture of a vague NOAA anomaly probability wave?

Followed thereafter by unknown YouTube weather forecasters struggling for clickbait?

I prefer GFS runs, which are less alarming but more accurate…

The GFS and only the GFS is certainly not accurate. I have already said this once before in the past, you cannot just simply look at one forecast models and take it as gospel. Thats like looking at your phones weather app 5 days before an event and not checking it again because you think that forecast will verify. Use all the forecast models you can. Is it that looking at too many solutions is confusing? I completely understand, models are meant to model the future, therefore each solution will be different in some way, shape, or form. Models were not made to tell the future, they were made to give insight as to what may happen in the future with no guarantees attached.
 

4 hours ago, bubba said:

Not sure I understand the Florida guys (Matthew, JLM and even Ryan although I suspect sarcasm) on this thread. After a summer-like December, Florida is finally getting some California weather.

I understand that north Florida may experience cold weather every year and So Fl occasionally, the imminent polar vortex vexingly predicted will give So Fl 70’s/50’s F weather. This actually does not approximate what I describe as California weather, which during winter can be described as “65/45F centric”. 

After 8 plus months of humid/hot weather, where we are lucky to see low temperatures in the upper 70’s F, a few weeks of “70/50 F California esque weather” (only meant positively!), is something to be highly appreciated. 
 

 

I am not sure that i understand this comment very well, what are we being sarcastic about? December for this area was spring like, and so far January has been right about where it should be here. South Florida is and will always be different from North Florida in terms of weather. And if you mean California weather for Florida as in the entire state, then i have no clue what you have been looking at. We had a high of 47F today with clouds and a passing flurry in the morning hours, not sure how this relates to California other than the fact that its dry.

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Silas_Sancona
2 minutes ago, JLM said:

The GFS and only the GFS is certainly not accurate. I have already said this once before in the past, you cannot just simply look at one forecast models and take it as gospel. Thats like looking at your phones weather app 5 days before an event and not checking it again because you think that forecast will verify. Use all the forecast models you can. Is it that looking at too many solutions is confusing? I completely understand, models are meant to model the future, therefore each solution will be different in some way, shape, or form. Models were not made to tell the future, they were made to give insight as to what may happen in the future with no guarantees attached.
 

I am not sure that i understand this comment very well, what are we being sarcastic about? December for this area was spring like, and so far January has been right about where it should be here. South Florida is and will always be different from North Florida in terms of weather. And if you mean California weather for Florida as in the entire state, then i have no clue what you have been looking at. We had a high of 47F today with clouds and a passing flurry in the morning hours, not sure how this relates to California other than the fact that its dry.

 Don't quite get that either..  or the " 65/45 centric " #  for temperatures out there this time of year. Having actually grown up there, i can guarantee " California Weather, in winter " is far  more varied,  depending what part of the state you live in.. 

Can be 89-92 in Palm Springs, or around inland San Diego on the same day it is in the 20s in Tahoe, ..or just north of Redding.. While stuck in the upper 50s / 60s in San Jose/ S.F.  in Jan or Feb.

Don't know many people in FL. that would actually welcome  a long stretch of San Francisco - esque weather, ..esp. this time of year..  Hated such stretches of weather in California, esp. when at the beach in July, haha..

Isn't  " winter warmth " one of the biggest reasons people flock  to S. FL. in the first place?  lol

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Matthew92

Just to clarify: I've been careful not to post things that say "THIS WILL HAPPEN" or say it myself. While I do understand a basic level of meteorology, these met's and weather enthusiasts on Twitter I follow are able to articulate things I can't as have access to certain graphics not otherwise easily attainable. They're just highlights to see what is going on with the weather dynamics. Most of the bottom line I have hoped to emphasize by posting the tweets and other info is that it is true that we are definitely in a pattern that could support a freeze in some parts of FL. I think recognizing the overall pattern and setup is good to have a heightened awareness of a potential freeze threat. 

 I also find the dichotomy of weather that stems from the Arctic meeting up with an area at such a lower latitude very fascinating. To see the progression of the weather systems unfold leading to this pattern is part of the intrigue. Ok yes, maybe not for everyone: but I feel what I have posted has been interesting and helpful information. Again, my intention is not to fear monger or proclaim a forecast that this or that will happen a certain way.

Also, regarding model runs. I think it was a couple winters ago in particular, I posted lots of "scary looking" runs of the GFS only to have them not come to fruition. And after reading through, I realized it was coming off as alarmist and was not helping anyone. I really have learned to not take them very seriously (even the GFS) when they are over a week out. When I do take them more seriously is when we are in the 5 day window or thereabouts, or when multiple models agree on an overall pattern farther out in advance. I can tell you that some of the model runs lately have been crazy cold, but it's simply too far out in time and I've resisted any urge to post ones that would not be helpful (regarding the post above about potential snow in North FL: this was more of a spectacle I wanted to share and even the meteorologist who posted it explained/inferred to be watching for some event that could possibly be along those lines: also it would not be too hard to believe that something like that could happen since we are stuck in the same pattern that gave snow flurries to Pensacola just this morning and this next weekend is looking to be the same with a very similar type of storm system).  Anyway.. again, my bottom line is that I try to make care to post info that is relevant and creating awareness of an overall pattern that could support freezing temperatures in parts of the state.

Edited by Matthew92
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ChristianStAug
3 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

Actually that period may have the greatest risk of a significant cold wave in that area.

cpc.thumb.JPG.805f960b445068cb0976e02cd9901bc7.JPG

Biggest gripe with the NWS probability maps is that they are really just that, probably of below or above. Of course, if their modeling is showing extremes, the probability of the temps in that time frame leaning more toward that extreme is higher. Let's takes this one here. If for all of those days, we averaged 2, 3 or 10 or 20 degrees below average, the forecast was correct and the darkest blue would be appropriate in hindsight. The maps don't convey very well just HOW below normal?  This really seems to be a typical cold period coming...most places look to stay at least 5 degrees above their "zone defined" temps.  Even at the coldest time of the year,  you still need at least a -15 to -20F nightly anomaly for a freeze risk.

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Silas_Sancona
3 minutes ago, ChristianStAug said:

Biggest gripe with the NWS probability maps is that they are really just that, probably of below or above. Of course, if their modeling is showing extremes, the probability of the temps in that time frame leaning more toward that extreme is higher. Let's takes this one here. If for all of those days, we averaged 2, 3 or 10 or 20 degrees below average, the forecast was correct and the darkest blue would be appropriate in hindsight. The maps don't convey very well just HOW below normal?  This really seems to be a typical cold period coming...most places look to stay at least 5 degrees above their "zone defined" temps.  Even at the coldest time of the year,  you still need at least a -15 to -20F nightly anomaly for a freeze risk.

If my area were under the 80%+ probabilities, esp. the colder end, i'd be carefully watching each and every forecast update.. 70-90% is a pretty confident ( ..and darn cold, lol ) suggestion ..though it can definitely change in subsequent updates.. often does.

" The maps don't convey very well just HOW well below normal "

Can gauge the suggested anomalies from the maps pretty easily..  If say the 70% area were suggested locally,  i can look at the 5-7 day forecast and know - with pretty good confidence - highs ( and lows ) will likely be well below average / normal ( likely more than 10-15 degrees ) for that time period.. Ie:  highs potentially in the upper 40s/ 50s compared to normal ( is currently 65 here in Chandler,  Phoenix proper's average high may be a deg or 2 higher than us right now )  / Lows dipping to ..or just below freezing ( ..or colder ) ..Average low atm here is 41.


Precip forecasts are trickier, here at least, esp. during Monsoon season ( hard to nail down 100% precip forecasts over an area w/ so much topography / micro - level precip. forcing features / dynamics ). That said, < and it has panned out each time forecast > Once we're under / above the 60% " probabilities " You can be pretty sure we're going to get soaked < and enjoy some good electrical storms / relief from 105-115F heat > over a wide area.  These forecasts are much more vulnerable to completely flipping on a dime per daily updates, compared to temp forecasts though, so i put a bit less confidence in them, paying closer attention to how things evolve outside on a given day instead.

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bubba

It was not my intention to be flippant but I feel compelled to make some observations. Matthew (Okaloosa County) and JLM (Santa Rosa County) are located in the very northern panhandle of the state of Florida, which borders Alabama. These two Florida counties include Crestview and Milton, which are traditionally two of the coldest and northernmost cities in Florida during our short winter. If they are both pushing zones, then I certainly understand that even the threat of a probability wave showing an arctic incursion is of great concern.

Florida is a long and large state that contains climates that run from subtropical to tropical monsoon and tropical savanna. In Latitude, the state ranges from 31.0001degree north to 24. 52° north. California ranges from 40° north to 32.32° north with so many different climates and microclimates that it boggles a native Floridian‘s mind. I personally love the California climate and my wife and family prefer it by far over any other state for escapes and vacations.

Perhaps the topic thread (Florida Winter 2021-2022) is a bit over expansive, not unlike a topic thread “California Winter 2021-2022”. Legitimate cold-weather concerns in the Florida Panhandle are simply not applicable to So Fl. Accordingly, a GFS run is plenty for both myself and Ryan (who the “sarcastic” comment applied to solely). My cajoling of Ryan occurred only a few lines above in this thread on this page and kidded him regarding his concern for minimum temperatures in the low 50sF.

My reference to my hope for “ a few weeks of 70’s/50’sF California esque weather” was only meant positively and was a platitude to California without negative context. This is a time in So Fl, where we get some payback from the virtual 90/80F year-long ritual with dewpoints at times over 80° that we endure.

The California winter weather approximating “65/45F centric”  is quite accurate for the palm growing regions of the state (See January 2022 to date for the following relevant weather stations: KCALAQU193/ La Quinta, Ca 80.9/30.5/54.8F; KCASANTA2881/ Santa Monica, Ca 82.4/41.4/57.7F; KCACORN624/ Coronado, Ca 79.5/37.8/56.3F; KCALEMON15/ Lemon Grove, Ca 83.5/34.7/55.8F.

The same is true for Mr. Sancona, who is outstanding and whose contributions I greatly enjoy (except when snarky, which is also enjoyed), as he communicates from somewhere around Mesa, Arizona (KAZMESA517 79.2/28.6/52.8F). In further response, I played golf this weekend with two gentlemen from Vermont, who were commenting on their good fortune to be in So Fl teeing it up on a perfect day (they reported that it was -18F in their community in Vermont). The cool down is greatly appreciated by all, even those who came to So Fl for the winter warmth in the first place (See PBIA WPB, Fl 83/69.53/49F).

 

 

 

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JLM
22 minutes ago, bubba said:

It was not my intention to be flippant but I feel compelled to make some observations. Matthew (Okaloosa County) and JLM (Santa Rosa County) are located in the very northern panhandle of the state of Florida, which borders Alabama. These two Florida counties include Crestview and Milton, which are traditionally two of the coldest and northernmost cities in Florida during our short winter. If they are both pushing zones, then I certainly understand that even the threat of a probability wave showing an arctic incursion is of great concern.

Florida is a long and large state that contains climates that run from subtropical to tropical monsoon and tropical savanna. In Latitude, the state ranges from 31.0001degree north to 24. 52° north. California ranges from 40° north to 32.32° north with so many different climates and microclimates that it boggles a native Floridian‘s mind. I personally love the California climate and my wife and family prefer it by far over any other state for escapes and vacations.

Perhaps the topic thread (Florida Winter 2021-2022) is a bit over expansive, not unlike a topic thread “California Winter 2021-2022”. Legitimate cold-weather concerns in the Florida Panhandle are simply not applicable to So Fl. Accordingly, a GFS run is plenty for both myself and Ryan (who the “sarcastic” comment applied to solely). My cajoling of Ryan occurred only a few lines above in this thread on this page and kidded him regarding his concern for minimum temperatures in the low 50sF.

My reference to my hope for “ a few weeks of 70’s/50’sF California esque weather” was only meant positively and was a platitude to California without negative context. This is a time in So Fl, where we get some payback from the virtual 90/80F year-long ritual with dewpoints at times over 80° that we endure.

The California winter weather approximating “65/45F centric”  is quite accurate for the palm growing regions of the state (See January 2022 to date for the following relevant weather stations: KCALAQU193/ La Quinta, Ca 80.9/30.5/54.8F; KCASANTA2881/ Santa Monica, Ca 82.4/41.4/57.7F; KCACORN624/ Coronado, Ca 79.5/37.8/56.3F; KCALEMON15/ Lemon Grove, Ca 83.5/34.7/55.8F.

The same is true for Mr. Sancona, who is outstanding and whose contributions I greatly enjoy (except when snarky, which is also enjoyed), as he communicates from somewhere around Mesa, Arizona (KAZMESA517 79.2/28.6/52.8F). In further response, I played golf this weekend with two gentlemen from Vermont, who were commenting on their good fortune to be in So Fl teeing it up on a perfect day (they reported that it was -18F in their community in Vermont). The cool down is greatly appreciated by all, even those who came to So Fl for the winter warmth in the first place (See PBIA WPB, Fl 83/69.53/49F).

 

 

 

Thank you for clearing up the whole sarcasm thing, i was extremely confused on that. Florida is a weird state when it comes to weather! I could agree that the term "Florida Winter" varies quite a lot, however when we are looking at a freeze threat from an arctic airmass, chances are these freezing temps would make a run for Central FL (not saying this will happen with the upcoming cold spell, there is nothing suggesting that). If there are freezing temps in the central part of the state, then South FL will also at least be chilly. It was for that reason why the term Florida Winter would be used instead of breaking it up into portions (like Northwest, South, Northeast, etc). For normal cool snaps though, the temperature does vary a lot as it can be 30F in Pensacola and 70F in Orlando.

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Hombre de Palmas

I certainly enjoyed working out in the yard today. After being away for two months on an unexpected trip to Northern Wisconsin for a difficult family matter, I have had to deal with a badly overgrown landscape. During the summer, I can, at best, spend 2-3 hours in the yard depending on the difficulty of the project, but today I was able to go 6 hours before my old body wore out. It felt like early fall would up north, which was always my favorite time to work in the yard. There is one difference; here, this cool spell will be followed by seven months of summer, while up north it was followed by five months of REAL winter.

I do, however, get nervous about cold fronts. I don't really zone push, but I do notice that the landscape can look a bit peaked if cold is persistent. It takes some time for things to bounce back and look their best. If we ever do experience a serious freeze in my lifetime, I will surely replace anything that expires with more hardy species so I can REALLY enjoy the "winter" weather!

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Matthew92

 

 

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Jimbean

My forecast has dropped down to 40F for tomorrow morning. 

The frost advisory has moved further south.

Some other predictions:

Merritt Island 41F

PSL  41F

Fort Peirce 41F

Vero Beach 41F

Stuart  46F

 

 

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Jimbean

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Hombre de Palmas
1 hour ago, Jimbean said:

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Yeah, the temperature is dropping like a rock. No wind, clear as a bell, but we won't drop below 43F tonight so the windows stay open!

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Palmarum

Brrrr...

 

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Scott W

When I left the house both the phone and truck said 39F, with the greenhouse reading 55F and seed beds reading 89F.  I'll be grabbing data from the four thermometers placed around the yard to see what was recorded later today.

My phone currently says 34F, but I'm at work on the Northside of Jacksonville and it adjusted for location.

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Jimbean

Bottomed out at 42F at my location.  Temperatures ranged between roughly 38F to 48F within a few miles in any direction.  The mode seemed to be around 41F to 44F.

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