New Florida Winter Outlook

[gsytch 31]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20121018_winteroutlook.htmlhttp://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20121018_winteroutlook.html

What'cha think?

[Rusty on Pine Is. 39]

I think the link doesnt work..........

[SubTropicRay 161]

It doesn't work.

[Kailua_Krish 575]

Just delete the second half of the address, its been duplicated.

[gsytch 31]

Just remove the right part until the link below reads winter outlook. I do not know how to cut it from the link. It is interesting news for Florida, or is it? Kinda unclear. Maybe.

[Zeeth 2,428]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20121018_winteroutlook.html

[displaced_floridian 28]

I sure hope this blocking high pressure over Greenland

Doesn't mean the dreaded "Greenland Block"

That funnels all that cold air into Florida. The NW winds

On the backside of Sandy are already causing

Unseasonably cool temps for this time of year-- 50

Degrees for Stuart predicted tonight.

[SubTropicRay 161]

If the NAO is negative (blocking) now, maybe it will be positive (eastern ridge) by December.

[Moose 1,499]

Any updated predictions ?

[gsytch 31]

Latest look on the CPC has leveled some with equal chances of above or below for Dec/Jan. It has been ridiculously dry here this fall, driest in my 24 years here. One rain since Oct 2nd. Once, 1/2" or less, on Nov 7 and the prediction is zero through the weekend. Lawns are very dry and brown, and I am starting to see the leaf drop on trees. What I made up for in a low elec bill is going the other way on water!

[SubTropicRay 161]

Paul Delegatto keeps beating the "coming cold" drum in his evening forecasts. As much as I'd like to discount this, he's usually right. The NAO and AO are both forecast to go negative in the coming week so maybe he sees an arctic outbreak on the way. Besides this, the sustained cool weather we've been having makes me think there's a sucker punch coming soon. As much as I'd like to discount myself, I'm usually right too. Just sayin'.

[SubTropicRay 161]

From the Climate Prediction Center

"8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 12 2012

THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEEK 2 CIRCULATION PATTERN

WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER,

SEVERAL MODELS (06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS (00Z

AND 06Z)) FAVOR RISING 500-HPA HEIGHTS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, AND A SLIGHT

RETROGRESSION OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TODAY'S WEEK

2 BLEND CHART DEPICTS NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE LOWER 48

STATES, A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM JUST TWO DAYS AGO WHEN MOST OF THE CONUS WAS PREDICTED TO HAVE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD AIR TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. "

[Jason in Orlando 20]

Awesome.

[sur4z 423]

Maybe or maybe not scientific but here is what the Farmer's Almanac says:

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2012/08/26/will-winter-return-with-a-vengeance/

[Trópico 73]

Maybe or maybe not scientific but here is what the Farmer's Almanac says:

http://www.farmersal...th-a-vengeance/

Funny how most of the people who left comments are praying for a cold, snowy winter. We have to out-pray them!

[Jason in Orlando 20]

Maybe or maybe not scientific but here is what the Farmer's Almanac says:

http://www.farmersal...th-a-vengeance/

Funny how most of the people who left comments are praying for a cold, snowy winter. We have to out-pray them!

Amen brother!

[Xhoniwaters1 84]

[gsytch 31]

The CPC is calling for below normal temps 8-14 days out, but not a local forecast calls for anything that is even below normal thru Dec 12th. So, unless there is something not seen, it should stay mild and dry. If you got to the 90 day outlook, is it normal temps (previously they were calling for below normal) and dry (prior called for wet). Me thinks they are confused?????? Anyway, I look out 7 days only, and thru next weekend it is 75-80F days and 55-60F nights. No rain. It is VERY dry now.

[Rusty on Pine Is. 39]

I place zero confidence in anything that the CPC put out...at best, their maps are ambiguous, since they call for percentages of probabilities, and the "equal chances" means that temps could be normal, or below or above normal...last time i looked that type of non-prediction is called CYA.........

Given the variability of the NAO, any prediction of climate for the eastern CONUS is worthless past 14 days.

Rusty

[gsytch 31]

Lets keep that NAO positive...with positive thoughts!

[gsytch 31]

This came from FAWN (Florida's Agricultural Network) and certainly is food for thought!

http://agroclimate.org/forecasts/current_climate_outlook.php

[SubTropicRay 161]

Look out, next weekend could potentially be very cold.

[edbrown_III 311]

Ray its going to be 30 F here tonight first freeze for us , I am building a tent aroundthe Jubeaopsis as it is a bout 16 feet over all and this will cover the triangle palm next to it.

Best regards

Ed

[Moose 1,499]

Look out, next weekend could potentially be very cold.

you were right

[SubTropicRay 161]

According to the Climate Prediction Center, all the signs are pointing towards a colder January in Florida. For perspective, December 2010 was very cold but the following January and February of 2011 were warmer than normal. It looks like this winter will be the complete opposite.

[gsytch 31]

According to TWC, January is to be above avg temp wise and Feb should be the month to watch for. Hmmm whom to believe? This cold has so far been as advertised, 51F here at wakeup with a NW breeze of 7-10mph keeping temps up along the coast. It is Sun AM when the winds die down to worry about. I see it is 15 degree colder 15 miles inland from me. The rains were very nice, too, with nearly an inch from the front.

[Rusty on Pine Is. 39]

According to the Climate Prediction Center, all the signs are pointing towards a colder January in Florida. For perspective, December 2010 was very cold but the following January and February of 2011 were warmer than normal. It looks like this winter will be the complete opposite.

Perhaps their discussion is different than their graphics, which show EC for the one and three month lead, valid 20 Dec.

[PalmatierMeg 7,331]

Predicted low for this a.m: 43F

Actual on the Isabelle Canal: 44.6F

Predicted low for Sunday: 41F

Actual low: ??

[SubTropicRay 161]

Rusty, that graphic changes daily. Take it with a grain of salt.

All the CPC is saying is the door will be wide open. Whether or not the cold comes through it is unknown.

[gsytch 31]

CHILLY night bottomed out at 36F with heavy dew but no frost. It dropped quickly after dark then settled in. Temps were well into the 20's in Hernando and Citrus counties this morning, while St Pete was 54F (uhmmmmmmm)...water or not, that is not real. Last cold for a while. It appears like this will be the up and down winter they called for, just hoping the "down" is not too bad!

[PalmatierMeg 7,331]

Predicted low for this am: 41

Actual low on the Isabelle Canal: 42.6

Glad this episode is pretty much over.

[Alicehunter2000 753]

Did not freeze here on the NW Fl. panhandle coastline. It froze a little inland. We did however, have a light frost.

[bubba 1,898]

Hard to get overly concerned or perplexed. Just checked our numbers at the "cold hole" West Palm Beach Airport show the Mean Temperature for Dec. 2012 is 73 degrees F. with High 86 F. and low 43 F. Christmas day forecast is High of 81 F. and low 70 F.

Now as we all know, these things can change on a dime. Somehow,however, I just do not get that cold feeling this year in South Florida. May be wrong but just do not feel it....

[Walt 1,469]

Out here in the deepest inland in Highlands County, low temperatures were all over the place Saturday and Sunday mornings -- depending on exact location.

Saturday was my coldest morning (even though the forecasters said Sunday morning would be the coldest).

Saturday morning I recorded 32 degrees in the open yard, here, 1-1/2 miles N.E. of the town of Lake Placid. Archobold Biological Station, 8 miles south of Lake Placid recorded 23 degrees (they have an official NOAA weather station there). Conversely, my buddy leaving at Lake June Pointe (but not water front) on 3,504 acre Lake June low was 44 degrees. That's a 21 degree spread within an eight mile distance! High ground areas always run close to 10 degrees warmer than at my place (low ground) during radiational cooling events, which Saturday and Sunday was here.

Sunday morning was slightly warmer for me as I bottomed out at 35 degrees. However, I had lots of frost on the roof top and light frost on most of the open grassed areas. My 8 feet high Tobouchina heteromalla got lots of leave damage on top from frost, plus a few other things of little consequence. All my palms did fine.

I will be pleased as punch if this is the worst I see this winter. But I'm not betting the farm on it!

[Dave-Vero 674]

I'm bothered that the moist, warm December has a lot of plants up and growing.

Accuweather's outlook for Dec. 30 to Jan. 5 is getting milder. It had looked like a series of near-freezing nights.

[gsytch 31]

Actually most predictions have looked milder, mostly 45-48F lows at the lowest point. There still is a door open up north for January and now snow cover, so it should get interesting.

[Dave-Vero 674]

Now, Accuweather's version of the entire month of January gives us above-average temperatures every day of the month.

I suspect they took daily averages, took into account someone's projection that the month would be a bit warmer than average, and adjusted the averages by that much. They don't show any of the inevitable fluctuations.

[Walt 1,469]

I was out today and saw tabebuia (don't know what species, but yellow flowers) in full bloom and pink tabebuia in near full bloom. One of my many Tabebuia chrysotricha trees has about ten yellow blooms on it and lots of swelling buds, and this particular tree startedblooming last week. I've never seen such early blooms. At a friend's house today he showed me one of his Clerodendrum quadrioculare with beginning blooms on it, and these plants don't normally start blooming until late Februar/early March. This warm winter weather is inducing lots of premature spring bloom.

[Eric in Orlando 4,837]

So far the lowest we have recorde here at Leu Gardens is 40F. The nearest NWS station is at the Orlando Executive Airport just a couple miles away and they have had 37F.

The gold trumpet trees and pink ones are starting to flower here too.

[edbrown_III 311]

My Hong Kong Orchid tree is full of blooms up here in Jacksonville Its so mild Livistona drudei might set seeds this winter --- Best regards Ed