I figure I better start up one of these threads as I have a feeling it may be a dramatic year.

Anyway, it has been pretty warm here. Wales had 25-26C today and I had 22C here.

Tomorrow it will be 26C / 79F in London…

The fires are already back with a vengeance, despite many places having the wettest winter on record. The past few weeks have been pretty dry and warm however.

5 active fires at the time of writing this, but it is the Marsden wildfire has been wrecking havoc. All the roads in the area shut off. Helicopters coming in tomorrow.

 

We will see what the maximum is tomorrow in London. I would say 25-26C but it may reach 27C. I have a feeling the fires will be out of control the next few days…

Time to plant some trees and cull some deer.

How does the upcoming Super El Nino typically affect the UK?

I recorded 80.4f/26.9c with 35% humidity. I’m guessing St James’s Park would likely have been the warmest official station if it was working. Highest official temp was 26.6c at Kew Gardens. It’s been a very warm April evening, 66f almost 19c just after midnight. 

26° is pretty warm for so early in the season.

On 4/8/2026 at 9:19 PM, Chester B said:

Time to plant some trees and cull some deer.

How does the upcoming Super El Nino typically affect the UK?

I have been keeping tabs on the ENSO cycle. El Nino summers are typically on the cooler side and unsettled, with more rain. Some of the worst summers in recent decades have been during El Nino summers. Specifically neutral ENSO in spring that transitions into El Nino by May-June, almost always results in a lacklustre, cool, damp summer. But there aren't a huge amount of moderate-strong El Nino summers to use in an analog/case-study.

The Csb warm-summer Med summers usually fall during La Nina or ENSO neutral conditions, generally speaking. But there is no set formula to it. There are lots of other background drivers that influence things and also there are twice as many La Nina years as El Nino to use in a case study. Some analogs and predictions actually has it being pretty warm and dry here. So at this point, no idea what we get. We could get anything really.

I am going to throw my neck out on the line and say we are going to get a blazing hot and fairly dry summer. Seeing 1976 come up in certain analogs always fills me with hope. 🤣

 

How has this spring been for you guys in Houston? Warm/hot? Dry/wet?

23 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

I recorded 80.4f/26.9c with 35% humidity. I’m guessing St James’s Park would likely have been the warmest official station if it was working. Highest official temp was 26.6c at Kew Gardens. It’s been a very warm April evening, 66f almost 19c just after midnight. 

 

It is a disgrace that the St James Park station has been offline for 2-3 months now! Goodness knows how warm it would have recorded yesterday, but I suspect at least 27C there. I screenshotted the PWS’s near to it. Look how warm they were, although it is central London with UHI.

 

I had 26C here…

 

I see some places managed 23-24C today as well. I had 22C here at 1pm but a cold front came in and dropped it back down to 15C by 5pm this afternoon. Like the Fremantle Doctor. Very windy as well.

How is this for crazy as well… Barcelona in Spain hasn’t recorded a temperature above 21C yet this spring. Yet. And London has already had 26-27C.

27 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

How has this spring been for you guys in Houston? Warm/hot? Dry/wet?

Above normal temps and below normal precipitation. One good one bad.  
 

Predictions are a wet fall/winter with a scorcher of a summer for 2027. 

On 4/9/2026 at 2:44 AM, SeanK said:

26° is pretty warm for so early in the season.

Yeah it is pretty warm, but not record breaking.

The fires are coming under control now with the introduction of cooler, damper air…

 

Lots of Saharan sand/dust in the atmosphere over northwest Europe in recent days causing  a Calima type event…

This is probably going to be the driest April on record for some places. Parts of Essex are only on 0.1mm / 0.004 inches for the first 21 days of April up to now.

Rayleigh in Essex is on 0.1mm for example…

Quite a lot of places in Essex, Kent, London and Hertfordshire are only on 0.2mm - 0.4mm, which is also extremely dry for the first 3 weeks of April. Although not quite as severe as those places on 0.1mm.

Stanstead Airport in Essex for example is on 0.2mm…

 

Kew Gardens in London is on 0.6mm after the first 3 weeks of April…

A very, very dry outlook with warmish days and chilly nights under clear skies. No rainfall is forecast for the rest of April for almost all of England, so it is going to be one of the driest months ever in places if it stays at 0.1mm or 0.2mm in places.

 

The fires have backed off a bit, for now, but they are still happening obviously given how dry it is out there now…

 
 

Last nights 18z GFS had the first proper major plume of heat coming up for early May. That would probably result in at least 30C / 85F for London on that with 17-18C hPa 850 overhead in late spring. Highly unlikely at this stage however, but interesting to see.

 

Looking at the long range models, another dry-ass summer is looming again…

 

 

Despite the wettest autumn/winter period on record we are now enduring one of the driest periods on record here now with many places on 0.2mm / 0.007 inches for the entirety of April so far. Some Met Office stations are on 0.3% of long term average rainfall for April up to the 25th..

The humidity levels here today have been as bad, if not worse, than Phoenix, Arizona. Some places in southern England have been in the single digits for humidity!

London Heathrow not even in the top 10 least humid and still down to 14% humidity there…

 

The Met Office station at Odiham (not far from me) down to 12% humidity…

 

University of Reading, again not too far from me, down to 9% humidity earlier today…

Looking at PWS stations in central London, I can also see humidity down to 9% there with a dew point of -14C almost, which is ridiculous. Again these are low level sites, not mountain peaks, in April. A few reports of 7% humidity at low level stations too in southern England.

High pressure is absolutely dominating and firmly established over the UK…

Obviously the wildfires are spiralling out of control again with numerous evacuations and properties burnt down.

Serious problems in Northern Ireland tonight with evacuations underway…

 

Things are only going to get worse before they get better. As I type this as 1am, humidity is still only 37% here. I have forgotten what rain looks like. Think I may have had a few drops about 3 weeks ago.

Forecast for the next 7 days…

 

Certainly a very sunny April, we might get a touch of drizzle Monday night

On 4/26/2026 at 5:10 AM, alzo said:

Certainly a very sunny April, we might get a touch of drizzle Monday night

It drizzled here for a couple of minutes and that was it! 
@UK_Palms I suspect the humidity likely would be have lower than 13% here, but I probably artificially raised it slightly from having to flood the garden with water in the morning and evening! The grass has started to parch in London I noticed today. I spotted a decent amount of brown patches. 

The “drizzle” came to nothing down here. No measurable rainfall today. Chance gone.

Some places will finish April on 0.2mm / 0.007 inches. A few areas probably have had no measurable rainfall this April.

They are getting absolutely hammered in Northern Ireland and Wales…

Helicopters have been dropping water non-stop on the fire at Loch Lomond in Scotland…

Potentially a very warm end to May. With this set up low 30s very likely under clear sky.

 

20 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

Potentially a very warm end to May. With this set up low 30s very likely under clear sky.

 

Yeah it looks like we are flipping into summer mode later next week.

AIFS (Euro AI) has modelled 31C / 88F in London, in May, although that is further down the line…

This has been such a weird spring. Pretty warm and dry, but with a 10 day period in mid-May with below average temps and late radiation frosts for me here. If it wasn’t for that, it would have been pretty good for me.

Anyway the Canadian GEM is the first model I have personally seen 35C / 95F modelled on for the UK this year, again in May. Almost certainly won’t happen. But one to watch…

Summer is about to make its arrival known then it seems. And these figures are probably too low with 30’s C now expected.

Still a lot of uncertainty regarding next week, but it is looking increasingly likely that we will be dealing with a heat dome event now. Just look at that anomaly on the models… 👀

 

So far, the Euro / ECM only has 33C / 92F modelled off the back of that. Although some ensembles have gone to 35-36C / 95F during the last week of May.

I am already seeing 38C / 100F being modelled for us in early June. I don’t think I have ever seen that so early before on models. Homegrown warmth building for 10+ days (heat dome scenario) and then reinforced again with 20C hPa 850 temps overhead on this. I think it goes to 39C / 102F in London during first week of June, which is crazy to see modelled.

The Met office forecast is likely understating the temps I suspect. Uv will also be very high with a thinner ozone layer and a sun alt of 59 to 60.5 degrees it’s plausible for peak UV index to be a 9.

The Met office have upgraded it again. Possibly multiple 18c-19c nights here. 

Models look absolutely roasting today. Not convinced it will get this hot, but still absolutely crazy to see for May. The all-time temp record for May is definitely under threat.

The Met Office’s UKV has 34C / 94F near me on Sunday. That is just 4 days away. Surely won’t happen!

Canadian GEM is an even bigger inferno. It has like 5 days exceeding 34C / 94F from Sunday onwards with temps peaking at 35C / 95F in 6 or 7 days time.

Night-time minimums around 25C / 77F is just utter madness in May. Although this is still 8 days away. That would be warmer than any night ever apart from the 2022 heatwave. Just insanity.

Either way it’s definitely getting hot for us. Google has it pushing 35C / 95F by this time next week. Never seen anything like it in meteorological spring.

 

I’m not going to talk about June yet, but already signs of a reinforced heat dome over us with a cut off Iberian low dragging up hot air from the Western Sahara in first or second week of summer. If it comes right off the back of this imminent heat event, we could be looking at more unprecedented heat. I have already seen 39C / 102F modelled for first week of June. Something that would have been  absolutely unthinkable a decade or two ago. But right now, you wouldn’t bet against it.

Could it be El Nino, perhaps? Meanwhile, here in the Eastern Mediterranean, we are having one of the coldest and wettest springs in history. It looks like the summer will be cold as well

5 hours ago, Gringo said:

Could it be El Nino, perhaps? Meanwhile, here in the Eastern Mediterranean, we are having one of the coldest and wettest springs in history. It looks like the summer will be cold as well

It could be El Niño as it seems that previous developing El Nino’s have led to warm and dry springs here it seems, or at least I think that is the case. So there may be some truth to ENSO causing that.

However transition to El Niño by June usually causes poor, wet, cloudy summers (1997, 2015, 2023) although I think that is being overruled more and more nowadays by the switch to warm-summer Med for us here. Even with El Niño, I suspect we will have a warm/hot and dry summer again this year. Which is almost becoming the case every year now.

Anyway, we are expecting temperatures of up to 34C and nighttime minimums of 21-22C now in a few days time. Madness for what is meteorological spring still.

I have seen 37C / 100F modelled on Met Office charts even for this Monday, although that won’t happen now, I am sure. The upper level airmass (hPa 850) isn’t going to be warm enough. But with 18C ‘uppers’ being modelled it has produced 37C / 100F in spring in the UK. That wouldn’t be possible without the additional background warming from climate change.

I reckon there’s a 90%+ chance of a new May record high. Everyday has been warmer than the forecast as well and Monday and Tuesday are forecasted to be both 34c. The nights have been much warmer here as well. It’s a real shame the metoffice doesn’t have St James’s Park in operation. At least I can give a good general idea of night temps with my vantage pro 2.

Two forecasts now showing 35c temps. Windy.com also has 17c 850hpa temps for Friday and that website tends to understate the 850hpa temps. Potentially 6 days over 30c now. Lower than usual ozone too. The UV index could hit a 9 as well depending on how clear the sky is.

Absolute madness on the models.

36C / 97F on Arpege for Monday

37C / 100F on Arpege for Tuesday

In fact Arpege goes to 38C / 101F on the hi-resolution chart for Tuesday…

Met Office slightly more reserved, but still showing two consecutive days of 34-35C and a nighttime low of 22C… in meteorological spring!?

Also looks like a one single day cool down on Wednesday to 24-25C then back up towards 30’s C again. ECM and GFS have 35C / 95F next Friday and Saturday too. So this heat event is here for the next 7-8 days at least. Maybe the next 10 days. ECM just reloads the inferno for mid-30’s C again late next week, so it never really ends.

This is an unprecedented event…

The all-time May record WILL fall on Monday and again on Tuesday. The nighttime record is going as well. That is a certainty now. From a conservative perspective, I think we will have a 35C max and a 21C min. But it could be even higher. Watch this space.