March Madness Weather, 2026: ...The GREAT Western Meltdown..

[Silas_Sancona]

You knew a stand alone thread regarding ..what is likely to be an unprecedented spring heatwave event here in the western /southwestern U.S. ...   was coming...   In some cases, it is already kicking off in parts of the west as we speak.. 

86F currently ( 11:51AM ) here in the neighborhood w/ numerous, low 90s already in many neighborhoods nearby.  Seeing numerous areas at /above 86F across S.Cal right now as well  ..and a few spots up around the Bay Area already breaching the 80's mark. 


While hot springs aren't anything new to this portion of the country,  what looks to unfold in the coming days,  esp. after the start of next week,  will see temps,  ...both morning minimums and " top out " daytime highs... exceed daily,  and / or monthly records ..for BOTH March and April.. in many areas that typically escape such events.  

Daniel Swain, over at Weather West,  covers this nicely both in his livestream on YT a couple days ago, and in his blog post yesterday ( Here, for those who can't seem to type in " Weather West " in their web browsers:  https://weatherwest.com/archives/43745 )

*** Note in his blog discussion the potential connection between these types of extreme ridges, and Atmospheric River events.. 





While often bland / leaning too conservative, IMO,  in their daily forecast discussions, PHX NWS has been doing a pretty good job laying out what will be a pretty eye opening stretch of weather,   ...even by our standards.. fairly well.








Not the 2nd paragraph discussing when we typically see our first 105 / 105+F days here..






Here at least, only " saving grace "  relief- wise may be overnight temps not staying as hot as they do later on in the spring / over the summer..





With surface temps expected to stay +15 - 30F / 8 -14+C warmer than normal thru this event, communities located up in the mountains here in AZ,  and various parts of CA, UT, NV,  and NM may see record shattering morning lows during this event.   We'll see what ours look like once this event gets going.  



Regarding potential highs?   

**  Well, lol ..if you live here / in Tucson,   get ready to experience a multi day stretch of 100 / 100+ heat,   with the potential for flirting with 110 not off the table here / reaching it, at least on one day possible in places around Palm Springs /Indio,  and El Centro.

Tucson could breach the 102+ mark for a day or two.. Their monthly record high is  ...99F



** Normally cool, ..even while we bake.. Flagstaff could see highs reach the mid 80s..

** Sonoita, sitting right around 4Kft elevation,  and communities within the Borderlands down south could flirt with the mid 90s, with exceeding that not off the table in some spots down there..

** How about a 5 day stretch in ST. George, with 95F ...or slightly hotter.. possible there.  Las Vegas?  ..you too may reach / exceed 100F wayy earlier than normal too. 


ABQ, Las Cruces and El Paso?  stretch of 80 -mid 80s in ABQ, possible some spots flirt with 90..  Multi - day stretch of 90 - 90+ heat ..with breaching 95 / flirting with 100F not off the table in both Las Cruces and El Paso not off the table in either area..

As Daniel mentioned in his live stream, Denver and Co. Springs may also see temps reach / breach 80 at some point during this event as well..



Think you're escaping this one,  normally cool spots in Cali.? ..think again....

While 10 day forecasts currently being issued by WX underground are a bit modest /  seem subdued, spending some time looking over the current thinking among point and click forecasts from the NWS offices out there, ..some of the numbers i'm seeing ..are down right nuts  ..esp. for MID MARCH..

While the deserts,   parts of inland S.Cal,  and the Cen. Valley can get a bit toasty   ..by their definitions of  " toasty "..  this time of year,    areas around the SF / Monterey Bay Areas typically have to wait a few weeks / let alone months..... to see some of the temps being suggested..  like..

**  Mid / upper 80s possible in parts of San Francisco

*** San Jose ( near downtown ) and the southwestern suburbs where i grew up ( Los Gatos / Almaden areas )  seeing a multi day stretch in the 90s, with the possibility of reaching 95 not totally off the table..

Inland spots in the East Bay likely seeing similar highs too.. 

Morgan Hill , Gilroy, and Hollister flirting with the mid / upper 90s ..someone cracking 100 not totally off the table either..

Reaching / exceeding 100F near the Pinnacles highly possible..

** Reaching / exceeding 90, near the beaches, around Santa Cruz / Capitola possible.. W/ 90 -90+ readings, on a day or two possible places like Watsonville / Salinas. Knowing how hot it could get near the beaches, won't be shocked to see some of the neighborhood - level  " hot spots " in the S.C. mountains reach / breach 95F

Even Monterey may flirt with 90 in a few spots.. 


** Cen valley looks ..toasty.. with Sacramento likely to break it's all time March high  and Fresno ..potentially... reaching / exceeding 95F on one or two days of the 5 forecast to reach / exceed 90F.


Coastal / near coastal spots around Southern CA areas that are typically more moderate compared to desert areas may see desert -like highs..  
 

** If they don't reach /  break it over the next couple days,  Los Angeles may break ( ..or shatter ) the 100F mark..  with 100F readings possible in places like the San Fernando Valley, and Pasadena areas..

** Similar readings now ..and very possible next week across Orange County.. 

** Inland Empire will likely see at least a day or two above 99,  if not exceeding 101F

** San Diego, near downtown? You may actually reach / exceed 90F today ..and again next week..

..while inland spots like Escondido, Pasqual Valley, Poway,  Ramona,  and Santee / El Cajon may reach 100F for a couple days

Coastal spots like Oceanside, La Jolla = seeing some mid 80s there right now. May reach / breach?? that mark again next week.

Ooff, 😬




In a nutshell  ..No one won't feel the effects of what is going to be the deafening sound of shattering records across a huge swath of land over the next 7-14 days..




How long does it last??   

That depends on which current WX model thinking wins out..  Some current thoughts from ..say the GFS, want to move the ridge east / offer up some relief by the 21st /22nd. 

Other thinking from other model data break the ridge down a bit as some troughing passes over the top of it around the same time ..only to have the ridge try and rebuild over the west again around the 26th /27th..  

Looking at today's thinking from the ECMWF ( surface / 2m mean anom. temp charts ) While the extreme +Anom shadings may back off by the end of the month, Overall warmer than normal anom shading doesn't budge across the west thru the current forecast period ..Apr. 27th.. 

Honestly, Just going to have to wait and see which direction that goes.. ..but,  i won't be surprised if  ..for the most part.. we're " ridged " for quite awhile.. 



For now,  ..prepare for what is on the way  ..esp. if here in AZ / nearby areas that could see a multi day stretch of temps at / above 100F ..areas that could see several days above 93F that aren't used to seeing such #s this early..

Long-time local  ..or out of towner  visiting the area..  STAY HYDRATED,  and don't be that jagoff who puts the health and safety of first responders ..or folks in the general public   at risk..   stay  OFF   THE TRAILS  during the day..   

Be interesting to see if Maricopa CO. issues any  ..really early.. daytime trail closures next week. Hopefully they do, ..at least on the hottest days currently in the forecast. 


Much more to come.......

[80s Kid]

Thank goodness this setup isn't occurring during the summer because that would really be something. I agree about closing the hiking trails here too. It never ceases to amaze me how many people think it's okay to go hiking in the intense desert heat. 

[Silas_Sancona]

5 hours ago, 80s Kid said:

Thank goodness this setup isn't occurring during the summer because that would really be something. I agree about closing the hiking trails here too. It never ceases to amaze me how many people think it's okay to go hiking in the intense desert heat. 

Agree 100% ..be VERY thankful an event like this is happening now  ..rather than at any time between the start of June and first week or two in September.. esp. here.

While i'm hoping someone who can offer more precise reasoning behind it will discuss the " what if -s... / why a ridge of similar strength might not  be as  significant in June or July... etc... " were this kind of event to occur during the summer.

Looking at the event just from the " how may degs. will the daily high temps be ..above the Hist. Avrg.  temps"  basic  standpoint is pretty eye opening..

For example, our current,  " historical " average high reaches and sits above 100F from roughly June 4th,  thru about September 7th, ...topping out at 105F right around the end of June / first couple weeks of July.. 

Now add the 18 to  ....30F +deg temp anomalies expected to occur with this event  ..on top of those Hist. avrg #'s  and...   It would blow the 120 / 122F highest recorded readings out of the water.. 

Again though,  while the ridge forecast to build in over the coming days will likely be a record breaker,  the same set up in June or July might not reach / break record strength ..for that time of year  ..so the surface temp effect might not be as extreme at that time, compared to how it will likely play out right now.

In fact, ..more so in recent years,  it isn't uncommon to see the 500mb  heights seen in " summer time " high pressure ridges  reach / exceed 600mb ..which is very strong,  and ..when such 500mb heights sit directly over us, is what results in those prolonged stretches of temps in the 100 - teens / flirting with the infamous 120F threshold. 

I don't doubt that  ..esp in a warming world,  the possibility of seeing an event where the 500mb heights reach / exceed, even if just briefly..  say ..the 610 or 620mb Geo. potential height level  ..if possible..  could occur. 

Obviously,  the surface temp response under that kind of set up,  should it ever occur,  ...would be ..unreal..  

...A shot in the dark thought on that  ..As mentioned, hopefully someone will do a deep dive into such a " what if " scenario because i'm sure there are plenty of folks wondering the same, exact thing as both you and i..




As for the " hiking in this kind of heat " aspect, ..as i mentioned in the past,  ..we have " Stupid Motorist " laws.  We need to stop being nice / giving those who choose  <  ..emph. = ..choose... >  to hike in 100/ 100+ heat   a slap on the wrist, so to say   ..And slap them with fines,  esp. the repeat offenders / anyone who intentionally enters a closed space.. 

Spending a few hours / or more  roaming a trail,  somewhere,  out in the desert,  is a big part of why i moved here  but  ..unlike some mush meat -headed people who seem to think they're some imagined super hero,  i'm fully aware of the limits our heat  ..and terrain.. place on those adventures at times.  

Not self centered or impatient enough to put the lives / careers of others in jeopardy either just to get my fix either.  Like being out in the mornings / evenings better this time of year anyway  ...Able to observe / document much more wildlife than during the afternoons too. 



Sean Mclaughlin,  over on channel 5,  pointed out something very important last night during his 10PM forecast,  esp. for those visiting the area, who might come from low elevation / relatively flat -terrain areas of the country / elsewhere.. 

PHX itself sits at an elevation of ~ approx 950 -1300ft in elevation,  ..depending on what part of the valley you're in..   That in itself can put some stress on the body,  as it adjusts to the altitude increase. 

Majority of the " well known / tourist -y " hiking spots in the immediate area sit on terrain that  ..in many cases..  increases pretty quickly ( think Camelback, South Mountain, White Tanks,  San Tan Mtns,  Superstitions,  Trails in the Catalinas / Sabino Canyon / Tanque Verde Falls,  A - Mountain ...and anywhere in the Tucson Mtns,  for example )..

Hiking on a trail where the height gained as you proceed increases pretty sharply over pretty short distances is already strenuous.  ..Add in the various"  heat effects on the body " factors,  esp. for anyone who has never lived in an area where they never got well acquainted with similar terrain and..  you can get into trouble pretty easily / quickly,   ..don't care how much of a gym rat " god" you think you might be.. 

Areas up in the mountains  in " Rim country ", or near /south of  Tucson, like up on Mt, Lemmon, or within Madera Canyon aside,  lack of much /any shade provided by tree cover along most of the " desert " trails add to the stress on one's body too. 

I grew up frequently hiking terrain very similar to the valley's / immediate regions and   ..tackling ours,  is tough,   even during the " good " parts of the year..  ..and i haven't even challenged myself to some of the tougher spots yet, lol. 

Simply put, be smart..  don't be an out of touch,  brain dead idiot.   Plenty of spots ..down on the valley floor,  ...that are fairly flat, where you can go for a quick stroll,  if you really need to,  during a hot afternoon..   Save the gritty, " desert adventures " for the mornings /  around /after sundown ( ..where allowed ) until the weather is better.  



Looks like the NWS just pulled the trigger on issuing an extreme heat watch..  Won't be surprised if they hoist some sort of heat -related product for the northern half of the state by Monday or Tuesday.    ...Don't take it lightly folks..


 

[Silas_Sancona]

Excessive Heat Watch advisories now hoisted for ALL of S. Cal, with the exception  **  ..for now..  **  of communities in the Mojave Desert. 







..We'll see how long it takes before they're added later,   let alone if these advisories are expanded north, up into the Bay Area / parts of the Cen. Valley.


More detailed thoughts from the SF Bay Area NWS on just how hot it may get up there: 



 Very similar to the current Point N click forecasts i looked over this evening.  If anything,  Posted suggestions may be 1 -3 deg. off some of the " top out " forecast highs at the point n click level for this event up there. 



PHX and Yuma both broke their first records of this event today..

** PHX = 93F  ..Beats 92F, set in 1972

** Yuma = 96F  ..Beats 95F, set in 1913

Not a record ..i don't think...  but reached 95F in the neighborhood this afternoon. 

It looked like some areas around both L.A. and San Diego might have came close to records, but i've yet to see any " record reports " posted from either NWS office..  Hot in many areas regardless. 
 

[JohnAndSancho]

Meanwhile, in the Dirty South, we're gonna have another freeze this week but right now, this. 

[Silas_Sancona]

Sunday Point n Click numbers update..      Lots to get to so diving right in.. 

Overall, numbers looking essentially the same region - wide,  though " Max " high temp potentials have ticked up in a few spots.


Excessive heat watch / advisory products have been expanded to the bay area and parts of western AZ / CA near the Colorado River. Still nothing hoisted for other parts of the Mojave ( in CA ) Northern AZ, or the Cen. Valley..  yet.



Does appear the season's first excessive heat warning is now hoisted for parts of the interior central coast though..






**** Remember, 👇these 👇 are ...Potential.... highs.   ..that may tick up or down as we head into / thru the week ahead.. 

All are based of the NWS' current Point and Click forecasts for each area..


Find Your general Location.....  LOTS of info. to digest. 


S.F Bay Area:

San Fran,  West side = 4 days above 80, max high = 85
San Fran.,  East side = 6 days above 80, max high = 89
South San Fran = 6 days above 80, max high = 88

San Jose, near downtown = 6 days at / above 89, max high = 95
Los Gatos / Almaden area = 6 days at / above 89, max high = 95 

Palo Alto = 6 days at / above 84, max high = 92

Morgan Hill = 6 days above 88, max high = 94
Gilroy = 6 days above 88, max high = 97
Hollister = 6 days above 88, max high = 97
Pinnacles = 6 days above 87, max high = 99

Santa Cruz, ...near the beaches = 6 days at / above 84, max high = 92
Watsonville = 6 days at / above 84, max high = 91
Monterey = 5 days at / above 80, max high = 87, in the warmer spots. 80 -82 in the cooler locations.

** Inland areas of the East Bay look about the same as what is currently forecasted for the South Bay. 

** Won't be surprised to see " neighborhood - level " readings reaching / exceeding 100F in both the south and east bay on the hottest days forecast. 


Cen. Valley:

Sacramento = 6 days at / above 85, max high =92
Modesto = 6  days at / above 85, max high = 92
Fresno = 6 days at / above 84, max high = 95
Bakersfield = 6 days at /above 85, max high = 96

..Another area where neighborhood 100 /100+ readings are quite possible..


Santa Barbara / Ventura / Inland spots north of L.A. 

Santa Barbara = 6 days at / above 84, max high = 93
Ventura = 6 days at / above 85, max high = 91
Thousand Oaks = 7 days at /above 85, max high = 96
San Fernando Valley North = 7 days at / above 85, max high = 101
San Fernando Valley South = 7days at /above 85, max high = 100
Santa Clarita Valley = 7 days at /above 85, max high 101
Valencia = 7 days at / above 85, max high = 101
Glendale = 7 days at /above 85, max high  = ..105
Pasadena = 7 days at /above 85, max high = 101

Near L.A. 
Downtown L.A. = 7 days at /above 85, max high = 100
Beverly Hills = 6 days at / above 85, max high = 101
Santa Monica = 6 days above 85, max high = 90

Inland Empire:
** All locations down here will spend the next 7 days at / above 85F
** Expect plenty of 100 /100+ neighborhood readings here too, and across Orange County, away from the immediate coast..

Rancho Cucamonga max high = 101
Riverside  max high = 104
San Bernadino = max high 105
Corona = max high = 102
Menifee = max high = 103
Murrieta = max high = 103
Temecula = max high = 102

Orange Co, and Long Beach. 
Long Beach = 5 days at /above 84, max high = 96
Huntington Beach = 4 days at / above 83, max high = 86
Santa Ana = 6 days at / above 85, max high = 97
Anaheim =  6 days at / above 84, max high = 98

San Diego County:
Oceanside / Carlsbad = 6 days at / above 80, max high = 87
Vista = 6 days at / above 85, max high = 95
Escondido = 7 days at / above 83, max high = 99
Ramona = 7 days at / above 85, max high = 100
San Pasqual Valley = 7 days at / above 85, max high = 102
Fallbrook = 6 days at / above 85, max high 99
Poway = 6 days at / above 85, max high 99
El Cajon = 7 days at / above 85, max high 101

San Diego ( Near Downtown ) = 6 days at / above 84, max high = ...89
La Jolla = 6 days at / above 79, max high = 85

Palm Springs Area and nearby:
All Areas = 90 / 90+ for the next 7 days.. 

Palm Springs = max high 110
Palm Desert = max high = 110
Indio = = max high  = 111
Mecca = max high = 111
El Centro = max high = 108

Yuma:
7 days at /above 90, max high = 108

Tucson ..and the borderlands:

Tucson South ( Near Downtown / "A" Mountain ) =  7 days at / above 85, max high = 105
Tucson North ..Casas Adobes area of town = 7 days at / above 85, max high = 104
Catalina / Oro Valley area = 6 days at / above 85, max high = 102

Sonoita = 6 days at /above 80, max high = 96
Sierra Vista = 5 days at / above 85, max high = 96
Nogales = 7 days at / above 84, max high = 101

Forecast temps across Phoenix and da' burbs nearby are currently in the same range as forecast earlier..  No updates needed.  


Flagstaff and Payson:
Flagstaff = 5 days at / above 74, max high = 83
Payson = 5 days at / above 82, max high = 93
Grand Canyon ( South Rim ) = 4 days at / above 80, max high = 86

Las Vegas:
Near downtown = 6 days at / above 85, max high = 101

St. George:
Near downtown = 5 days at /above 85, max high = 97

ABQ, Las Curces and El Paso:

Albuquerque, north side of town ( North Valley area ) = 5 days at / above 80, after a quick dive into the low 30s tonight. Max high = 90
Albuquerque south side of town ( Bernalillo area ) = 5 days at / above 80, max high 91.. after also flirting with freezing tonight
Las Cruces = 7 days at / above 84, max high = 95
El Paso = 4 days at / above 85, max high = 93


As your eyes can see,  No matter where you might be headed across the west / southwest this week, ..gonna get toasty..  plan accordingly..   ..and don't be a jibblet head ...stay OFF the trails during the afternoons here. 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

Quick, late evening update: 

A couple Threads threads offering up additional perspective on this event from Daniel Swain over at Weather West..








***  For those interested,  he will be live ( on Youtube ) to discuss it all / offer any updates at 1pm AZ / Pacific. Time.  

[80s Kid]

I thought the record breaking average temps for February in Phoenix were pretty crazy but March might be even crazier! 

[Silas_Sancona]

8 hours ago, 80s Kid said:

I thought the record breaking average temps for February in Phoenix were pretty crazy but March might be even crazier! 

No doubt bout that,  at all,  lol.. 

Heat " watch " now lifted to " warning " status across..  ..pretty much every corner of AZ, except up in / northeast of the Rim.. 




Expanded into Las Vegas / Deserts of S.Cal as well,  w/ advisory products expanded further north than Las Vegas in S, NV.   If it were in AZ or NV, St George UT would probably be under one of the two advisory levels.  ..Considering they stretch all the way to north of San Francisco ..A typically cooler part of the Bay area ..compared to communities in the South Bay at least, still not sure why either of the NWS offices in the Central Valley have issued any heat watch / advisory products yet. 




Current thoughts   ..and a tinge of dark humor..  from our local NWS office's discussion:



500mb geo. potential heights reallyy close to 600mb? ..in March?   Speachless..









Adtnl. thoughts from the S.F. /  Monterey Bay Area NWS regarding what they will experience:

[80s Kid]

99F high for me today (almost!) and it only gets hotter as the week progresses. 

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, 80s Kid said:

99F high for me today (almost!) and it only gets hotter as the week progresses. 

Beat me by 2 degs, lol.. ..Well,  using the WX underground station downtown ( topped out at 97F ) ..  Acouple other neighborhood stations nearby did reach / exceed 100F though.. Rest of the neighborhood stations hung in the 94-98F range.. 



Had some trouble saving all the screenshots i'd wanted to across CA today but, needless to say,  HOT ..in most areas.. out there..

Several neighborhood level upper 80s / 90F readings around San Francisco / coastal Monterey Bay and Santa Cruz / exceeding that around the South and East bay..  Plenty of 100 / 100+ readings across S.Cal / 90 /90+ readings close to downtown San Diego..

Wild for mid March, no matter how you dissect it.  



Be very interesting seeing which current temp forecast verifies come Sunday..  Wx Underground's tops out at 106 here on Friday,  while the P n' C forecast from the NWS has 2 days reaching ( ..perhaps exceeding?.... 😬 )  107F   ..It also holds onto the 100s thru Monday..  ..Right now at least..








As you can see, even if that doesn't happen,  ..for now at least, we're hanging onto 95+ heat thru  ..at least..  the 26th.    Craziness. 

( ..also, for now, )   Only area that may cool back to   ..what would be normal highs for us here in / around PHX?? ( 76 -80F btw )....    ..S.F Bay Area ..by next Tuesday..  Mid 70s there, in late March?  = pretty warm. 

More later if any records broken are posted..

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

More later if any records broken are posted..

Some #'s starting to roll in....

L.A /Oxnard NWS  = today:




Hanford / Fresno area NWS = today:




Flagstaff NWS = today:






S.F. Bay Area = yesterday:




Sacramento NWS = yesterday and on Sunday:



Wider scale records map from Daniel Swain:


 

[Harry’s Palms]

We were 96 yesterday and 85 in Ventura at my shop , which is less than 4 miles from the ocean. I have lived in Ventura County since 1959 and can’t remember ever seeing March temps like this . We are going into our second week of daytime temps above 80f . It looks like this is going to continue for a while , temps 20+  degrees above average. 
  As I said in my thread posted a few days ago , we have had a very odd weather year . Our rainfall is 215 % above average for the year and our wind events have much more frequent all winter ….now heat waves! Harry

[Silas_Sancona]

100F at 2:02PM w/ plenty of 100 / some 100+ readings in the immediate neighborhood.. We'll see where we top out at in an hour or so.. 



Current, region - wide look on the " records " map from Cool WX.com..  




More to come...

[Silas_Sancona]

102F in the neighborhood. Above that in many spots nearby at 4:24PM... 

We'll see what the top out high reaches but, PHX < at Sky Harbor > made it above 100F to set a new monthly high record.. 


Should be plenty of other records shattered today, region wide..


LOTS of 4pm neighborhood level snapshots.. 


First up,  Local and AZ -wide readings:


























Tucson, & the borderlands....

















 

[Silas_Sancona]

Yuma, Rim Country, Vegas and St George...



Flagstaff / Rim Country communities: 










Las Vegas and Kingman / Bullhead City:





St George..





Palm Springs / El Centro area:

[Silas_Sancona]

Appears coastal spots around SD and most of S. Cal escaped " extreme " heat today.. Plenty of 100 /100+ inland though..  

Wider view shot of what SD County looked like around 4:15PM.






Most notable heat, outside the deserts?  =  around the South Bay,  where a few spots notched their first " neighborhood " 100F readings

...Remember ..it is MARCH.   


Don't remember seeing these kinds of readings in any of the late 80s / 1990s Spring season heatwaves out there   ..EVER. 















Santa Cruz / Monterey Bay area,  






Communities up in the Santa Cruz Mountains  ..among the Redwoods.  




NWS hasn't posted it yet but looks like Sky Harbor topped out at 102F..  Upward,  tomorrow..


FYI?  ..While temps may back down a bit in CA, Current 10 day here = 100 / 100+ thru  ..at least..  next Thursday.. 

 We'll see what happens.  

[80s Kid]

103F here in the east valley today. 

[80s Kid]

I wonder if this setup is at all similar to July 2023 when it seemed like it was 115F+ every other day. Early fall 2024 when we had all those record highs in a row broken is another long peak and duration heat wave that I previously mentioned. 

The fact that it's supposed to stay well into the 90s to around 100F well into next week for this time of the year really is something. 

Just get it out of our system now so the monsoon can take over in the summer.

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, 80s Kid said:

I wonder if this setup is at all similar to July 2023 when it seemed like it was 115F+ every other day. Early fall 2024 when we had all those record highs in a row broken is another long peak and duration heat wave that I previously mentioned. 

The fact that it's supposed to stay well into the 90s to around 100F well into next week for this time of the year really is something. 

Just get it out of our system now so the monsoon can take over in the summer.

Crazy for sure...   Longest spring - season heat - streak that immediately comes to mind would be the first half of April 2021 when we saw 90 /90+ for 13 or 14 days in a row..  

This will probably blow that out of the water,  if we stay at / above 90 thru the 31st.. ( would = 20 days ) 

 9 day streak of at / above 100 highs?,   if we stay in that range thru next Thursday,  will be unprecedented. 

Can't imagine what would beat that..  


IMO but  ..pretty similar set up to the '23 and 24 set ups..    As was pointed out a couple days ago,  sun angle right now is what it is keeping this event from getting as hot ....if not hotter,  esp the overnights.  


Yep,  Weak or total Non - Soon this year?? =  😬 




Some record reports.. 

[Silas_Sancona]

105F at 2:41PM..  First 110F neighborhood level readings of the year    ...in  ..MARCH







Current temp record map from Coolwx:



..More to come..

[80s Kid]

High of 107F here after a morning low of 68F. Currently 104F a little after 4pm. 

[JeskiM]

This whole setup is kinda crazy in the western N. Hemisphere.  This all got started about 10 days ago.  An Omege Block was set up in the far northern pacific ocean.  A large cold pull got pulled up under it's eastern flank. This cold pool was dumping heavy rains and snows over SW Canada and down into Washington state.  Now when a trof digs back, then it will force a high pressure to form immediately downstream.  Well, due to the more wes to east,  orientation of that trof over the pacific NW, the high formed up off the coast of california. So now in this configuration, all flow from west to east across the pacific gets blocked up.

So the air now has to flow either over or under the north pacific high, then under the pacific NW trof, over the west coast high pressure and then drop down over the midwest.  Basically a reverse "S" pattern. This then contributes to two events that happened in that time frame :

(1) the massive flooding in Hawaii as that was air having to flow under the north pacifc high, which them got blocked from flowing east because of the west coast high pressure. 

(2) the cold snap that just dove south to the east the rockies, This was was a downstream streching of the Polar Vortex due to a large pulse of warm air in the high latitudes, upper atmosphere .... courtesy of that north pacific high pressure.

So where are we now ?

The high that was in the north pacific is abating. West to east flow is starting to reestablish itself there.  The huge slug of moist tropical air that was pulled up north from east of Hawaii helped to build this huge high pressure system that is sitting over the SW states. Given the time of year we are in, the atmosphere still has strong flow in the northern hemisphere, unlike the weak flow seen in the summer. With the north pacific flow resuming, that area will see another large cyclone form up and the high over the SW will get pushed to the east, southest and weaken over the next week. Texas will get hot at the end of that process as the high will come over it.  

After that, in April the patterm changes back to unsettled weather in the west and a warm up in the east as a more typical spring like pattern settles over the lower 48.

It was a crazy end to a winter. 

-Matt

[Silas_Sancona]

3 minutes ago, JeskiM said:

After that, in April the patterm changes back to unsettled weather in the west and a warm up in the east as a more typical spring like pattern settles over the lower 48.

While this particular ridge may back down, ..a little..   and parts of CA / Pac. NW may  ..emphasize  ...may..   see a return to something  " not quite as ridge -y " as we start April,   going with our local forecasters ..and current data elsewhere  ..a transition to " unsettled " here is quite unlikely. 


FYI:  Daniel Swain will be live again tomorrow at noon local AZ and PST.

[Silas_Sancona]

5 hours ago, 80s Kid said:

High of 107F here after a morning low of 68F. Currently 104F a little after 4pm. 

78F right now ( 9:37PM ) after hitting 106 ( Downtown Chandler ) ..3 deg above the forecasted high.  Closer to the house?  ..closest two neighborhood stations touched 110F



Some of the local / other AZ numbers captured between 3:30 and 4PM.    Several 110 / 110+ readings around the valley today ..ooof.































Tucson and points south of there..














90 /90+ in Sonoita ( 4902K elevation ) / upper 90s in Patagonia = Wild







Flag ...and the Rim..











Kingman area..



 

[Silas_Sancona]

Palm Springs and nearby..














Yuma and Bullhead..







Vegas and ST George..






S.D. County..
















Some prelim. Records reports region -wide so far:











 

[Than]

Run! 😫

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, Than said:

Run! 😫

....From what?  

[Than]

55 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

....From what?  

...hell

[Silas_Sancona]

20 minutes ago, Than said:

...hell

Hell = places like Texas... 😂

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Hell = places like Texas... 😂

🤔..Speaking of which,   I wonder how Collector Palms is doing since escaping hell..   

Imagine he probably celebrated this winter  ...rather than cursing it,  ...again🤣


Daniel Swain live on YT now... 

[SouthernCATropicals]

Yesterday was 92f at my place in SD and I can’t even bring myself to see what it is today bc it’s too much to even step outside ahah it feels much worse than yesterday☠️

[Silas_Sancona]

19 minutes ago, SouthernCATropicals said:

Yesterday was 92f at my place in SD and I can’t even bring myself to see what it is today bc it’s too much to even step outside ahah it feels much worse than yesterday☠️

Looks like temps are hanging somewhere between in the 70s/ lower 80s right at the coast / west of the 5. Much hotter inland..

Escondido and inland S.D. atm / 1:41PM?  Wow..

[Silas_Sancona]

34 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Yesterday was 92f at my place in SD and I can’t even bring myself to see what it is today bc it’s too much to even step outside ahah it feels much worse than yesterday☠️

Current SST ( Sea Surface Temps. ) right off the beaches are probably adding to how hot it feels right now too. ...Close to the coast anyway.




Just saw this posted by Scripps..  70.7F WATER  temp off the pier  ..in MARCH = Mind Blown.  


 

[Silas_Sancona]

After topping the scales at 106F this afternoon,  <  ..in Downtown Chandler..   A " few" degs. warmer closer to the house. > ..a surprisingly pleasant 80F at 9:06PM.. 

Some impressively hot stuff across a wide swath of the country today..  






I'll glance over the likely ..long.. list of records set today / those set yesterday in this part of the world today later  but,  ..Some of the impressive #'s seen at neighborhood level high  lights  ..pun intended..  in various areas..  



Oddly, the Bay Area was a notch hotter today than yesterday,  while areas closer to the coast around S. Cal seemed to stay out of the " extreme " heat today.. Inland Empire locations / S.F. and S.C Valleys all were hot, but not really any hotter than they have been over the last couple days.

Back up in the South Bay,   Impressive to see ANY 100F readings  ..anywhere..   in the old neighborhood back in San Jose   ...in MARCH.


Cen. Valley:









Bay Area: 

Mid to UPPER 90s .. anywhere in S.F.?  That is some sizzle..































Palm Springs and Yuma = Nuke Fest day #2..










Vegas and St. George... darn near 100 ..or just over 100 up there, on the 1st day   ..of Spring..  Wilder? mid /upper 90s ..few 100F readings up there ..and in / around the South Bay   ..on the same day   ..well outside the summer months..






Closer to home, while 110 / 110+ readings ticked up a hair in various neighborhoods,  i was ..Dare i say..   a touch disappointed..  not to find any 109 / 109+ readings down in Tucson    ..despite the fact that there were a few 100 / 100+ readings seen in far flung,  borderlands locations like Patagonia, Sierra Vista and Whetstone.  
















Peak of this round of heat has been reached in most spots in Nor. Cal.  though, as Daniel Swain mentioned in his live stream earlier, ..that doesn't mean temps will be headed for normal / below normal values in ..at least.. the near term. 


We'll peak out tomorrow before settling back to ..the low 100s ..and perhaps a day or two under 100,  ..depending on any clouds that might wander into the area Sunday or beyond..


Further out?  ..Still a roll of the dice right now..  Yes, some of the model runs atm want to cool things down / maybe push a few ..mainly dry..  storms through the region   but,  ..latest 3 - 4 week outlook  ..taken w/ that side of salt ofcourse...  and today's 500hPa mean anomalies / 2m and surface temp anomalies thoughts from the ECMWF  all = looking pretty stable as we head into the next few weeks.. 

Today's 3 - 4 weeker:  ..Salt Please..




Could that change?   ..since we can't teleport ..anywhere.. today's thoughts will likely change by this time next week  ..but probably not in a direction that would = trough -y and much cooler kind of weather  ..but,  we'll see. 

There could be something else that tries to sneak into the local forecast as we get into April  but again,     ..you know what i'm going to say.. 


One thing sems pretty certain atm...  Polar Vortex?  ..is DeD    ..Nighty night,  See you next fall..






For now..  stay cool out there..

 

[Silas_Sancona]

103, with some high clouds movin in at 5:09PM  ..after toppin' out at 105 earlier..   Another day of smashing records, yes  ..but not quite as hot across town,  and in most spots west of us today..  Bay Area and most areas of S.Cal looked ..pretty decent, though still warmer than they should be for the end of month 3 of the year.. 

 Same can't be said north and east of us tho..



In keeping with this years,  extra - amp -'ed  " March Madness "  theme in the air  this week..   

🤔 ..Can't decide which one of these is crazier 🤔

This:





Or...




..I can't decide....

🤔  ...Pink is pretty on paper  though..  🤷🏽‍♂️




....While temps will  pull back  ..a hair or two..  tomorrow,  due in part to the same clouds moving in now  hangin around through the day tomorrow,  ...And to start off March Madness week # 4,  any  major  cooldown as April arrives is still looking...  ..Well, ...




If only i had the ability to see into the future.... Perhaps from the gas station at our neighborhood Costco.. Chic Fil A just seems like a tacky place for such an " event ".



...Don't even think about picking up that chair to toss at me..  


Regardless, 

....Stay hydrated   ..and no petting Leopards,  ..or any other seemingly harmless wild animal(s) that might  catch your eye  while out on your walk in the jungle,  ok?

[80s Kid]

High of 107F for the third day in a row yesterday for me. 

[Silas_Sancona]

Anudder day  =  Coast 2 Coast records  ..galore.. 





75F and a touch sultry as some thick Cirrus move overhead, after reaching 103 ..even with the clouds around  earlier this afternoon.. 



A stranger things twist to today here in the desert?  ..running errands only to find the store i went to bare of milk < ..weird enough.. >  High cloudiness passing thru the desert today had a distinctly summery look.. 

..If these two shots were snapped in July or August, a similar looking afternoon skyline might be the first hint of a big storm working it's way off the rim, towards the valley  ...and me rushing home to get set up for an evening of chasing bolts.  






In this case, convection responsible for producing this blob of thick and crispy outlined, Thunderstorm Anvil - type Cirrus that passed through town was confined to a layer of the atmosphere an altitude somewhere above 15-18K+ ft.  

..A hint of what might lie ahead in a couple months?  perhaps???..  🤔 ..We're getting closer to some thoughts on that.  ..Anyway..



Record breaking heat will continue ..here at least.. as we start the final week of the month.. 

Looking at both of these graphs, it's pretty clear we're going to break a record, every day, most ..if not all.. of next week..  Crazy we may exceed the SINGLE 100 deg March day recorded here by 1 -3 degs on the 26th,   ..At least if the current forecast thinking holds....






..After next Saturday?   ..I'll defer to a before mentioned thought..




That said,  ...for now...  it seems most of the model runs today are seeing ...something.. as we reach and enter April..  



What could that result in?    ..You already know what i'm going to say.  



An  ." .that's interesting "..  twist to the forecast at that time?    A brief break in the heat as April arrives may actually result in the first whiff of something sorta monsoon-y in the air since the atmospheric set up at that time could arrange itself in a way that manages to grab onto and pull some moisture north out of Mexico,  into parts of AZ, esp. the eastern side of the state..

Will that result in any rain?..  We'll see what things look like by next weekend..  That said, April showers can happen, even here.. 

This same set up,  should it occur,  could also offer up the season's first " keep an eye on this "  kind of outcome from a wildfire start scenario too ..so..

Regardless,  Dew Points may get lifted just enough to add a little muggy-ness to the air for a day or two if that scenario plays out..

Heat will also pull back to a more reasonable   ..if not still still above average for the start of April level.  



Regardless..   any break we might see at the start of next month probably won't hang around long..  

Daniel Swain will be back tomorrow for more thoughts on that    ..and everything else..







As if the weather end of the month has been ..weird..   I have no doubt many paying attention to their college basketball brackets ..or just the games themselves..  have been pulling hair this weekend.. 

Quite surprised to see KU axed  ...already..   ..Can we go back to the late 90s again please..



..That said,  ..I know another team that brought their  " A " game  ..in spades..  this year..      Will it last???    ..We'll see.


...At least they'll be roaring into the homeland,   ..well,   15mins. up the road in Downtown San Jose.. 

 Too bad i can't be there to represent    ..both ( ..and maybe plant the idea of Los Gatos adopting the best of UofA 's logo in someone's mind ). 




..Fingers crossed the road doesn't end there...    Bear Down,  ..and stay hydrated out there this week..   


 

[Silas_Sancona]

With the final day of this crazy month under way,  a ..somewhat humid n' cloudy 85F at 11:15AM,  with some spit  ..and a few flashes < west of the valley > in the skies atm..  We'll see if today marks day #3 of  " mini - monsoon -y esque  madness ..in March " 

Rest of the day looks partly to mostly cloudy with the threat for a few sprinkles ..or isolated, weak storm?? around.  If we're lucky, maybe enough rain to wet the sidewalks overnight is possible as a weak cold front works it's way through the region overnight into early tomorrow morning.  Same front could generate just enough convection as it moves through the area for a few more flashes too..

" Real " rain? =  ..Likely confined to the mountains north and east of the valley.. 

A much appreciated ..BUT BRIEF.. cool down will bring temps back into the 80s thru about Friday  ..Before..  ..We head back to the 90s  as April gets under way and right in time for Easter.







Looking into April?  ..Salt on the glass rim time but,  here is the latest thoughts from the CFSv2..   We'll see if <  ..more like when.. > the next big heat wave arrives..











Of more importance locally,  April marks the start of " Watch Mexico closely " season for the first clues regarding what the best season in AZ might offer up this year.. 

Looking at the maps above, and current thoughts from the GEFS, EPS, CFS weeklys, and Mean Precip Anom. forecasts from the ECMWF Charts,  it looks like the rainy season across both southern and eastern Mex. will start off on a decent foot, with normal to above normal lean precip anoms. spreading into the interior of Cen and N. Central Mex. during the month, with increasingly deeper shades of green building across the southern section of the country ( on different maps ).. 

As has been demonstrated over the last few days, some of that activity could seep a little further west < ..into the Sierra Madre Occidental > in both Sinaloa and Southern Sonora / Chihuahua at times,  esp. later in the month..


..All good signs  and something to watch   ..but not a guarantee...  for the summer ahead up here..  May is the month when the best clues arrive. 




As warm as the waters are off most of Western Mex. atm ..and look to continue to stay all of next month,  early hints of  " ..something Tropical " trying to spin up off S. W. MEX. can't be completely ruled out as we get later into the month as well..  Some signs that section of the E. Pac. may start waking up a bit in some of the longer term forecasts at least right now.. 


Since we can't actually teleport, no matter what some might " believe ",    we'll see what actually occurs.. 


For now, .. While the final numbers won't arrive until tomorrow, prelim. look at the maps below shows just how crazy March has been here ..and nearby..    **Included data from Scottsdale, El Centro,  and Yuma this time around **

Note the minimal amount of days we had below 80,  let alone 90..   ...and the mornings  ABOVE  65F / Below 60F.   Wowzah!












Other spots like Tucson,   areas of CA ..rest of the west.. that endured much March Madness with us  will likely have their monthly climate summaries out before Friday..  You know i'll post 'em here.. 




Parting thoughts from Dan from yesterday   ..who will be live again around 2PM today  ( Local AZ and Pacific Standard Time ) to discuss it all    ..and peer into the month ahead..