TEXAS 2026

[Chester B]

I should've started this in January.

Well another week pushing Texas further into drought, but it looks like things are going to change this coming weekend, at least for me.  Currently predictions are showing rain on Saturday and into at least mid next week.  Get those spring gardening tasks done, as it it looks like things are going to get muddy.

[MarcusH]

On 3/2/2026 at 9:26 AM, Chester B said:

I should've started this in January.

Well another week pushing Texas further into drought, but it looks like things are going to change this coming weekend, at least for me.  Currently predictions are showing rain on Saturday and into at least mid next week.  Get those spring gardening tasks done, as it it looks like things are going to get muddy.

I'm almost done with my clean up in the garden.  Most plants are already in the recover process, some are still hiding until soil temperature is above 60°F at night. 

As far as rain goes , doesn’t look too promising.  We might get some isolated rain showers up to 0.05" in our area but from my experience it's often less or nothing at all.  I can't say it often enough but we're going to continue this cycle unfortunately.  Our water reservoir levels are at a steady decline . Guadalupe River level is low so are other rivers , some like the Frio River and Medina River almost vanished like a ghost. River rock beds dominate the landscape.  What we need is more than just a storm system .

[Chester B]

Well I hit the rain jackpot these last 24 hours.  I’m at 4.5” and the plants have responded incredibly.  My yard was looking dead and it has now sprung to life.  Some of the perennials doubled in size and the palms pushed a few inches of spear.  Just incredible the difference that actual rain makes. 

[Xenon]

Now that's a healthy line of storms 

[Chester B]

No thunder or lightning here.  There was some wind gusts at the start, but that died down.  Rain has been moderate to heavy for about 45 minutes so definitely added to the rainfall total.  The sky is getting pretty bright so not sure how much more I'll get, its just to the north of me now like usual.

[Fusca]

Please divert some down here - we're at 0.05" total rainfall for the year so far.  😲

[Chester B]

So last night was pretty cold.  All the forecasts made last minute changes yesterday with overnight lows dropping lower than what was predicted on Sunday.  I saw a range from 35-38f.  I hit 32.  So whomever said when we get cold in Texas take the forecasted number and subtract 5 and you’ll get your actual number is right. 
 

Note the arctic cold sink in Alvin. It’s so strange why that is a cold microclimate being this far south. 

[Xenon]

Nothing happened along I-10 and most of contiguous built up Houston....36F in Uptown and 34F at the garden in E Katy 

[Xenon]

21 hours ago, Chester B said:

 strange why that is a cold microclimate being this far south. 

 

 

 

It's always cold there. No water to the north and split off from the rest of built up Houston. Alvin itself is also not dense development wise. Lots of open land...it gets nuked in a radiational freeze. 

[MarcusH]

6 hours ago, Xenon said:

It's always cold there. No water to the north and split off from the rest of built up Houston. Alvin itself is also not dense development wise. Lots of open land...it gets nuked in a radiational freeze. 

The same with Pearland.  There's still too much open land to keep the cold away but over the years it definitely created a better UHI.

Some parts of NW SA had a light freeze where we (NE) only went down to 34/35. I had to move in my tropical palms and other plants inside for a day.  

What's more worrying than this baby cold front is that we have absolutely no rain in the weather forecast.  Normally,  even in SA spring is rain season . Last year was a lot rainier than this year. All my trees and plants rely on tab water .  They grow so much better with regular rain water. The "ONLY" good thing about it is that weeds don't go crazy. 

[MarcusH]

On 3/17/2026 at 11:45 AM, Chester B said:

So last night was pretty cold.  All the forecasts made last minute changes yesterday with overnight lows dropping lower than what was predicted on Sunday.  I saw a range from 35-38f.  I hit 32.  So whomever said when we get cold in Texas take the forecasted number and subtract 5 and you’ll get your actual number is right. 
 

Note the arctic cold sink in Alvin. It’s so strange why that is a cold microclimate being this far south. 

The NWS works pretty accurate compared to others .So far , I haven't seen the forecast being off a day prior to a cold event.  What they predicted was exactly what we got. Everything forecasted pass 3 days into the future is a "guess" .  It's more of a "this might happen" forecast.  

Both aviation and maritime industries rely on data from NOAA. I think that speaks volume. 

[Xenon]

1 hour ago, MarcusH said:

The same with Pearland.  There's still too much open land to keep the cold away but over the years it definitely created a better UHI.

Some parts of NW SA had a light freeze where we (NE) only went down to 34/35. I had to move in my tropical palms and other plants inside for a day.  

What's more worrying than this baby cold front is that we have absolutely no rain in the weather forecast.  Normally,  even in SA spring is rain season . Last year was a lot rainier than this year. All my trees and plants rely on tab water .  They grow so much better with regular rain water. The "ONLY" good thing about it is that weeds don't go crazy. 

Pearland is a lot warmer than Alvin, especially closer to 288 and BW8. Pearland towards Friendswood and 45 is even warmer, nearly as warm as a Hobby. There's definite drop off leaving Pearland for Manvel or Arcola. 

[MarcusH]

8 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Pearland is a lot warmer than Alvin, especially closer to 288 and BW8. Pearland towards Friendswood and 45 is even warmer, nearly as warm as a Hobby. There's definite drop off leaving Pearland for Manvel or Arcola. 

Yes indeed , but it still isn't closed in like most suburbs inside 410 . Last year someone was reporting 19f in Pearland.  That's z8b . I get what you're saying though 

[Xenon]

2 hours ago, MarcusH said:

Yes indeed , but it still isn't closed in like most suburbs inside 410 . Last year someone was reporting 19f in Pearland.  That's z8b . I get what you're saying though 

Pearland is a huge, suburb 8-10 miles west to east and 5-10 miles north to south. Even more if you include a broader "Pearland Area". 

I spent some time looking at plants in Pearland/Manvel this week (yes this is a real day job lol) and it's weird because damage actually increases as you move south of Pearland 

On a similar note, Houston is usually warmer than just about anywhere 100-150 miles southwest of Houston that isn't on the immediate coast. You gotta get almost to Corpus Christi for it to warm up again. The way the coastline is angled doesn't allow for much moderation.  

[Chester B]

@MarcusH No rain in the longterm forecast here as well.  We got a 24 hour period with some rain, but that was the most we had since October.  There still is moisture in the ground but things are starting to dry up and with this heat dome hitting us it's going to be that much worse.

The barrel cactus at Lowes are starting to look like an appropriate plant for here lately.

[MarcusH]

23 minutes ago, Chester B said:

@MarcusH No rain in the longterm forecast here as well.  We got a 24 hour period with some rain, but that was the most we had since October.  There still is moisture in the ground but things are starting to dry up and with this heat dome hitting us it's going to be that much worse.

The barrel cactus at Lowes are starting to look like an appropriate plant for here lately.

I have two barrel cactus in the ground.  They should do well for you. Super slow growing though.  

I've noticed some standing water on the side of the road on our way to the park in your neighborhood.  That's from how much rain ?

I had to go to Kerrville this morning. Guadalupe River water level is very low , the water barely flows.  It's going to be tough this year.  

[JeskiM]

I hit 28 degrees the other morning. Forecast was 32.  I did put some of my potted tropical palms in the garage for two nights. Also bought some of my copiapoa cacti into the house, though the bulk of them stayed outside 

I haven't seen any noticeable damage to anything. It prolly wasn't cold enough, long enough. Also, it was a very dry cold. Plus, the day before it hit 97 degrees, so plenty of heat prior to the cold snap.  Though it did drop from 97 to 37 in an 18 hour period.   Last time we had a sudden swing of that magnitude was back in the mid 1980s.

Now back to full on summer for a week or so.

I expect April to be a bit wetter and cooler than March, excepting this last cold snap.

-Matt

 

[Chester B]

16 hours ago, MarcusH said:

I've noticed some standing water on the side of the road on our way to the park in your neighborhood.  That's from how much rain ?

Yes, when we get a lot in one day those areas typically have standing water for a few days.  That's nothing compared to when we get multiple days of heavy rain.  We basically revert back to swamp.

[Xenon]

Blazing hot 90 degrees in Uptown Houston right now. Gotta be record or near record 

[thyerr01]

Stuff I planted in March is already getting killed by the heat. This does not bode well for summer.

[Chester B]

On 3/21/2026 at 6:13 PM, thyerr01 said:

Stuff I planted in March is already getting killed by the heat. This does not bode well for summer.

Welcome back to Australia!

[MarcusH]

On 3/21/2026 at 4:03 PM, Xenon said:

Blazing hot 90 degrees in Uptown Houston right now. Gotta be record or near record 

Our summers are always cloudless for months and months,  NO breeze with temperatures in upper 90s to low 100s on average.  I take any humid day near the water any day.  

But get used to record breaking temperatures and droughts in Houston . The drought is moving to the SE. We're already in a drought since 2022 and according to meteorologists, there's absolutely no change in weather pattern for South Central /Central Texas.  I'm not sure about East Texas.  

 

[Xenon]

15 hours ago, MarcusH said:

Our summers are always cloudless for months and months,  NO breeze with temperatures in upper 90s to low 100s on average.  I take any humid day near the water any day.  

But get used to record breaking temperatures and droughts in Houston . The drought is moving to the SE. We're already in a drought since 2022 and according to meteorologists, there's absolutely no change in weather pattern for South Central /Central Texas.  I'm not sure about East Texas.  

 

Things are fine in Htown. I'll be doing my first hand watering of 2026 this weekend but looks like the rain should pick back up in April. Last year was like a dream, a "cool" (lol) summer with decent rain. I barely had to irrigate at all at least out in west Houston. Maybe less than a dozen times for all of 2025. It's not always doom and gloom ya know. 

[Chester B]

7 hours ago, Xenon said:

Things are fine in Htown. I'll be doing my first hand watering of 2026 this weekend but looks like the rain should pick back up in April. Last year was like a dream, a "cool" (lol) summer with decent rain. I barely had to irrigate at all at least out in west Houston. Maybe less than a dozen times for all of 2025. It's not always doom and gloom ya know. 

I couldn't disagree more.  Two rain events since October is not enough, and maybe three between then and July.  I see dead conifers all over my neighborhood and area, and I haven't stopped watering since late July 2025.  And I am not a person that overwaters, I like to toughen up my plants but when your topsoil is like dust and your ground has shrunk many inches you have to keep it up.  That 4.5" a couple of weeks ago was a lifesaver,  but I know out in Katy it was reported to be only a 0.1 inches.  I actually have moisture in the ground when I dig now, its been a long time since I've seen that.  Now that I am in my third year here, I'm realizing water hungry plants like I thought I could grow here are off the table.  I've been switching over to more Central Texas plants.

I can take a screenshot like this every time we get a bad storm and 9/10 it will miss me.  They slide on by in NE direction.  I can see them, hear them and sometimes smell them and they may come within a mile or so of me, but I've given up on hoping they'll make it to my house.

[Ivanos1982]

2 hours ago, Chester B said:

I couldn't disagree more.  Two rain events since October is not enough, and maybe three between then and July.  I see dead conifers all over my neighborhood and area, and I haven't stopped watering since late July 2025.  And I am not a person that overwaters, I like to toughen up my plants but when your topsoil is like dust and your ground has shrunk many inches you have to keep it up.  That 4.5" a couple of weeks ago was a lifesaver,  but I know out in Katy it was reported to be only a 0.1 inches.  I actually have moisture in the ground when I dig now, its been a long time since I've seen that.  Now that I am in my third year here, I'm realizing water hungry plants like I thought I could grow here are off the table.  I've been switching over to more Central Texas plants.

I can take a screenshot like this every time we get a bad storm and 9/10 it will miss me.  They slide on by in NE direction.  I can see them, hear them and sometimes smell them and they may come within a mile or so of me, but I've given up on hoping they'll make it to my house.

I agree with you, the rain we have gotten in west Houston has been puny at best. If you look at the all the west side of the city towards Sealy and Rosenberg the landscape changed. It's not wooded anymore, A LOT of cut down trees to make for development and agriculture. From google maps it looks like the whole place burned down. From San Antonio to Houston used to be more green and now it's very arid looking. This is part of a bigger issue affecting climate. The desert seems to be moving East. More droughts, more cold, more extremes.

[Xenon]

3 hours ago, Chester B said:

I couldn't disagree more.  Two rain events since October is not enough, and maybe three between then and July.  I see dead conifers all over my neighborhood and area, and I haven't stopped watering since late July 2025.  And I am not a person that overwaters, I like to toughen up my plants but when your topsoil is like dust and your ground has shrunk many inches you have to keep it up.  That 4.5" a couple of weeks ago was a lifesaver,  but I know out in Katy it was reported to be only a 0.1 inches.  I actually have moisture in the ground when I dig now, its been a long time since I've seen that.  Now that I am in my third year here, I'm realizing water hungry plants like I thought I could grow here are off the table.  I've been switching over to more Central Texas plants.

I can take a screenshot like this every time we get a bad storm and 9/10 it will miss me.  They slide on by in NE direction.  I can see them, hear them and sometimes smell them and they may come within a mile or so of me, but I've given up on hoping they'll make it to my house.

Like I said, it's very localized. If you look at the drought maps from the last 2-3 months, my garden corner of West Houston always landed in yellow (minor dry) or white (no drought). Guess I won the rain lottery! Hopefully things improve for you. 

I grow mostly tropical leafy things but I have decent shade and mulch heavily. Also got plenty of rain last year.  I know for a fact I haven't irrigated since at least October. 

My litmus test are the freeway medians. They are still plenty green 🤷‍♂️

[Chester B]

57 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Like I said, it's very localized. If you look at the drought maps from the last 2-3 months, my garden corner of West Houston always landed in yellow (minor dry) or white (no drought). Guess I won the rain lottery! Hopefully things improve for you. 

I grow mostly tropical leafy things but I have decent shade and mulch heavily. Also got plenty of rain last year.  I know for a fact I haven't irrigated since at least October. 

My litmus test are the freeway medians. They are still plenty green 🤷‍♂️

I see the drought monitor map weekly and I have been one level ahead, but it looks like its showing us even right now. 

My Colocasias are already starting to go crispy, so I have been watering them.  I mulch heavily, I got around 40 yards last year.  That's 4 truck loads.  I've already put down a couple of yards, but will be calling for a truck soon.  I use the triple shredded hardwood, it breaks down into pretty decent soil.  But it disappears a little too fast.

[Xenon]

5 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I see the drought monitor map weekly and I have been one level ahead, but it looks like its showing us even right now. 

My Colocasias are already starting to go crispy, so I have been watering them.  I mulch heavily, I got around 40 yards last year.  That's 4 truck loads.  I've already put down a couple of yards, but will be calling for a truck soon.  I use the triple shredded hardwood, it breaks down into pretty decent soil.  But it disappears a little too fast.

Here's the 2025 data from a Davis station about a mile away from my garden:

January 2025 : 4.48" 

February: 3.85"

March: 2.27"

April: 3.89" (6 rainy days, 4 over 0.10")

May: 4.78" (8 rainy days, 8 over 0.10")

June: 7.47" (14 rainy days, 10 over 0.10")

July: 2.30" (7 rainy days, 4 over 0.10")

August: 6.25" (15 rainy days, 8 over 0.10") 

September: 3.79" (6 rainy days, 5 over 0.10")

October: 2.84" (3 rainy days, 1 over 0.10")

November: 0.01"

December: 2.14"

2025 total: 44.07" which is near average 

January 2026: 2.71"

February 2026: 2.07"

March 2026: 1.50" (yes missed that rain you mentioned, but got another rainy day a few days later) 

See I'm not crazy. We just have vastly different 2025 experiences 😝. No complaints from me! 

 

[Chester B]

2 hours ago, Xenon said:

See I'm not crazy. We just have vastly different 2025 experiences 😝. No complaints from me! 

 

I never doubted you, it's that there some pretty distinct differences across the city.  Just like that NW corner seems to get the worst of the storms every time.  They get a tornado and I get a few sprinkles.  I've been so tempted to film the radar because I can't even tell you how many times the rain will literally split around me to north and south.  The lake seems to be some sort of blocking feature.

I'm hoping we get rainier as the summer goes on, because its already worrying.