European Freeze - late Dec 25 / early Jan 26

[UK_Palms]

A freeze event is now underway for large parts of the European continent. The first proper freeze this autumn/winter for most of us, at least outside of Scandinavia anyway.

It is actually going to be the coldest Christmas and New Years period since 2010 for parts of Poland, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, France and Spain. It also looks like the cold will reload again in a few days for a second, more prolonged onslaught.

High pressure AKA ‘northern blocking’ around Greenland and Scandinavia is shunting the cold air south from the Arctic regions into lower latitudes parts of Europe, while simultaneously cutting off the Atlantic pump of milder air from the west.

The cold air is trying to get across the English Channel from the continent. So far we have fought it off mostly here. Just look at the temperature gradient last night between England and the continent (France, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany etc)…

 

Quite a bit of snow in parts of France and Spain…

A cold, below average period now looks favoured for the next 2 weeks or so for most of us in Europe, worryingly. There will be a brief respite in the coming days, before the cold air reloads and comes back again with a vengeance. It also looks quite prolonged the second time around.

 

Those in central and Eastern Europe, will want to watch out if the latest GFS 12z is even close to producing something like this. Absolute palm killer event on that.

[sped94]

Thanks Alps 🙏

[kinzyjr]

11 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

A freeze event is now underway for large parts of the European continent.

You and @Foxpalms keep warm!

[UK_Palms]

I have been meaning to update this. Europe is in the grips of the ‘freeze’ now and has been for several days. It is the coldest end to a December and the coldest start to January in 15 years, since Dec 2010 / Jan 2011.

The UK and southern England has performed 10/10 in terms of resisting the cold up to now, thanks to the maritime influence and island microclimate. The continent has been absolutely hammered…

Germany absolutely freezing. They are by far the worst affected by this freeze in terms of departure from average. -10C minimums in Berlin and -5C maximums. A lot of the cold air is just sat around Central Europe. -20C in the mountains of Germany last night.

 

The real test will be coming this weekend. We will see just how cold it gets. And it will be cold. Daytime temps barely above freezing. So far no air frost for central London especially. That will change I suspect…

 

Models are hinting at the biggest, most widespread snowfall event for Europe in 15 years since the Dec 2010 event. Eastern Europe, Balkans and Turkey look particularly badly affected on this. As does Central Europe. But this is way down the line. I think January is going to be a rough one for Europe though.

[kinzyjr]

Looks like coast Portugal is the place to be.   That's a lot of cold air!

[Axel Amsterdam]

The London UHI effect in the city center doesn’t make a big difference in these conditions, with the city center at 1C around midnight. The next couple of nights will be several degrees colder. 

[Axel Amsterdam]

This app doesn’t show the city center but it’s likely that London will see widespread frost everywhere for a couple of nights.

[Than]

1 C in my yard right now. Forecast had predicted 3-4 C and apparently tomorrow will be colder 😔

[UK_Palms]

15 hours ago, Axel Amsterdam said:

The London UHI effect in the city center doesn’t make a big difference in these conditions, with the city center at 1C around midnight. The next couple of nights will be several degrees colder. 

 

Disagree strongly on this one, Axel.

I somewhat agree that during convective freeze events like this one with cold air masses sitting over us for days, or weeks, the UHI is obviously less influential compared to say isolated radiation freezes due to clear skies at night in winter. But either way the UHI is still clearly visible when you compare it to the suburbs.

Last night the Met Office station at St James Park in central London recorded it's first air frost of winter with a minimum of -0.1C.

 

Heathrow airport went down to -1.3C last night. Northolt went down to -1.9C. Wisley near me had -2.7C and that is just outside of the metropolitan area's UHI. So even during this convective 'freeze' sort of event, there is still a difference of almost 3C / 5.5F between central London's microclimate and places outside of the UHI.

 

I would say that during convective freezes the UHI protection is about 3C in central London, compared to 5C during radiation freezes. That is for typical events. However during more extreme events such as December 2010, February 2018, December 2022 etc that difference is even greater with central London getting about 7C of protection.

Wisley just outside of London's UHI went down to -12.6C / 9F n December 20th 2010 with no UHI, whereas St James Park in London only saw -5.3C / 22F. So that is a difference of about 7C during a convective event (which you say is less influential). So the UHI is clearly hugely influential during convective freezes too and even more noticeable during extreme events.

We will see the differences in temperature and the extent of protection over the coming nights...

 

Anyway, back to the forecast models and things have taken an even bigger turn for the worse today. We now look to be stuck in a freeze event for the next 10-14 days now. Forecast models are definitely prolonging the event. And it looks quite cold.

 

There are fears of a much more substantial reload of cold around the 10th and the worst of it to hit in the following days. Warning bells for a lot of folk with this scenario...

 

Those in southwest Europe might not be spared either around mid-month...

[Than]

3 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Those in southwest Europe might not be spared either around mid-month...

Southeast you mean.

It's quite cold here right now indeed. It is 6.30am and I should be sleeping but I am watching live temps and it is 1 C in Athens and -0.5 C in my garden, with light frost. No wind. 

[Axel Amsterdam]

You are correct that during freezes the absolute city center will always be several degrees warmer than most suburbs. I was in London during the december 2010 freeze. I was just looking at the current early morning temps and without frost, the temperature gradient between the center and suburbs within the M25 is quite shallow. 

[Than]

Already counting bodies.. my Ensete did not like the frost at all. Heliconia also has burns but i guess it will resprout from the rhizomes in spring..

Curious to see how other sensitive ones will react. I guess I'll know in few days. 

 

[Mazat]

5 hours ago, Than said:

Southeast you mean.

It's quite cold here right now indeed. It is 6.30am and I should be sleeping but I am watching live temps and it is 1 C in Athens and -0.5 C in my garden, with light frost. No wind. 

Than, that's how I felt and still feel, everything is packed up nicely...

[Mazat]

Yesterday, there was a shock early in the morning with -8.6°C outside, but then it rose to 4.2°C during the day. Only time will tell...

[Than]

15 minutes ago, Mazat said:

Yesterday, there was a shock early in the morning with -8.6°C outside, but then it rose to 4.2°C during the day. Only time will tell...

Wow, that's cold but I guess normal for central Europe. Was that on your balcony or outside?

[Mazat]

In the community garden below, it was -3°C on the balcony above and 10°C in the shade during the day, which was a relief 🤗 ...

Down below, it was already one of the coldest in recent years.

The coldest temperature recorded in the community garden over the last 12 years was -9.3°C. However, during the day, the temperature rises relatively quickly into positive territory due to the sheltered location. Temperatures this low do not occur very often here in the community garden.

[Mazat]

19 minutes ago, Than said:

Wow, that's cold but I guess normal for central Europe. Was that on your balcony or outside?

Today it's stormy, with strong winds and gusts, but it's 3°C, which is more important to me right now, so we're doing well 😁

[Than]

1 hour ago, Mazat said:

Today it's stormy, with strong winds and gusts, but it's 3°C, which is more important to me right now, so we're doing well 😁

Haha, this hobby is making us lose our common sense! 

Here too it's cloudy and rainy, which means that tonight the temperature will be much warmer. I have already removed all covers from the plants. No more cold expected in the next week.

[Mazat]

1 hour ago, Than said:

Haha, this hobby is making us lose our common sense! 

Here too it's cloudy and rainy, which means that tonight the temperature will be much warmer. I have already removed all covers from the plants. No more cold expected in the next week.

Absolutely 😁.

I'm happy for you and those who are enjoying temperatures above freezing.🤗

[sped94]

Temp min -4C Yesterday morning and +0,5C this morning. -1C predicted for tomorrow morning and a long period with temperatures above average is coming…

[Axel Amsterdam]

Larger area around central London 

[Axel Amsterdam]

And more zoomed in on central London, look at the area around Notting Hill, not that much warmer than some of the surrounding suburbs

[Axel Amsterdam]

The absolute city center (with St James park) stays a bit warmer indeed, but large parts of London have comparable freezing temperatures between -3C and -5C. 

[Axel Amsterdam]

No frost tonight in the Amsterdam area thanks to wind from the north sea and cloud cover

[Than]

On 1/2/2026 at 11:34 PM, sped94 said:

Temp min -4C Yesterday morning and +0,5C this morning. -1C predicted for tomorrow morning and a long period with temperatures above average is coming…

Wow, anca sa te xe vissín al mar! Xe normaje ste temperature in Mestre?

[sped94]

1 hour ago, Than said:

Wow, anca sa te xe vissín al mar! Xe normaje ste temperature in Mestre?

Ma questo dialetto veneto? Ahahahah

[Than]

1 hour ago, sped94 said:

Ma questo dialetto veneto? Ahahahah

Ciaro! Párlato? Mi so drío impararlo.

[sped94]

3 hours ago, Than said:

Ciaro! Párlato? Mi so drío impararlo.

Ahahah si! Parché ti xe drio studiarlo? Capita che ghe sia ste temperature quando che riva tanto fredo da nord e dopo el vento se calma e de note ghe xe el cieo limpido

[Than]

51 minutes ago, sped94 said:

Ahahah si! Parché ti xe drio studiarlo? Capita che ghe sia ste temperature quando che riva tanto fredo da nord e dopo el vento se calma e de note ghe xe el cieo limpido

Parché xe na língua bejíssima é anca la ga avuo na granda influensa su la me língua. Ghe xe un mucio de paroje vénete en Grego. 

Mi sò nassuo e cressuo intela zona 8b e me ricordo de lcune case ca gaveva Trachycarpus però a parte questo ne ghe gera mucio de palme li. A go la curiosità de sentir che palme te ga ti. Gastu un grando zardín?

 

[sped94]

Go capio! Si el me zardin xe beo grando. Mi go do trachycarpus, una CIDP, una filifera, una c. Humilis e una dactylifera che però a tegno ancora in vaso parché a xe picoeta. In giro te vedi sopratutto trachycarpus, parché e xe più resistenti, però ti pol vedare anche sti altri tipi de palme.. 

[Than]

10 hours ago, sped94 said:

Go capio! Si el me zardin xe beo grando. Mi go do trachycarpus, una CIDP, una filifera, una c. Humilis e una dactylifera che però a tegno ancora in vaso parché a xe picoeta. In giro te vedi sopratutto trachycarpus, parché e xe più resistenti, però ti pol vedare anche sti altri tipi de palme.. 

Ghe xe un mucio de altre palme ca podarìa sopraviver li, butia, phoenix theofrastii etc.  La dactylifera xe una dele me palme favorite ma intel me zardín a ne go mucio de spassio, sfortunatamente. El xe sojo 450 metri quadrati e la xe na palma enorme.

Un di a vegnerò a Venessia par praticar el véneto e forse anca vedar el to zardín!

[sped94]

When you want

[UK_Palms]

I got absolutely smashed here in recent days and nights. An absolute minimum of -7.6C / 18F on my exposed sensor at the bottom of the garden near an open field. 3 back to back nights with bad frost though and 3 days with 2-3C / 36-38F maxes at best.

Proper mid-winter blast...

 

Southwest Cornwall is wondering what all the fuss is even about with no frost... (11-12C warmer than my location)...

 

Parts of Wales also proving to be very mild during this cold spell...

 

Coldest night of winter last night in the British Isles. Even St James Park in central London went down to -3.7C / 25F. Heathrow airport in the western suburbs went down to -5.9C / 21F.

 

New record monthly minimums have been set for January at two Met Office sites in England. -7.3C / 19F at Holbeach is the lowest January temperature since records began there 35 years ago in 1991. Loftus has a new January record low of -5.2C / 23F now as well, after 30 years of records going back to 1996. So this is quite a cold spell of weather.

 

Finally had a bit of a let-up here with milder air moving in now. Relief here tonight and no frost, but it is still very cold just across the channel on the continent...

 

We need to watch out moving forward with some exceptionally cold air moving into eastern Europe. Those in central Europe are going to be in for a proper rough January. Germany has already had it very bad. Worse than all the other countries and 10 days from now eastern and central Europe could be experiencing their coldest weather in a decade...

 

It will be interesting to see whether this cold spell damaged the Norfolk Island pines in London...

[Bennz]

Have you had any damage UK_Palms? I doubt you're the kind of grower who sticks with safe palms only...

My sister flew home to London (her home of the last 35 years) 2 days ago. She was complaining about the heat here, 30C when she left, but personally the 2C high forecast for her early afternoon arrival time sounded a lot less pleasant to me!

[UK_Palms]

2 hours ago, Bennz said:

Have you had any damage UK_Palms? I doubt you're the kind of grower who sticks with safe palms only...

My sister flew home to London (her home of the last 35 years) 2 days ago. She was complaining about the heat here, 30C when she left, but personally the 2C high forecast for her early afternoon arrival time sounded a lot less pleasant to me!

I lost a lot of my more exotic stuff in December 2022. My Brahea Armata, Phoenix Theophrasti, Washingtonia's etc all bit the dust back then from having back to back nights of -8C out here in the rural countryside. Cordyline Red star was killed back to ground level too. I even had a Chamaerops Humilis spear pull badly back then, killing the central growing point. It didn't help that spring 2023 was so wet as well immediately after that freeze. A lot of stuff outside of the cities and coastal areas succumbed in the 22/23 winter.

Anyway as a result of that, I mostly just have Trachycarpus and Chamaerops left here. A few Sabals too. All my most prized and less hardy specimens like Archontophoenix, Kentia, Beccariophoenix Alfredii, Butyagrus, Syagrus Rom, Rhopalostylis etc are in pots and can be dragged into the garage or house for protection. I will not risk planting any of them outdoors until I move to the south coast. I will go from about zone 8b here up to a zone 9b somewhere around coastal Dorset, Hampshire, Sussex. Until then I am keeping most things containerised. And as a result, I won't really lose anything. The only thing that might take a hit here is the Musa Basjoo.

One night of -7.5C / 18F and 2 days of about +1-2C / 35F. Not really that severe for me here in the grand scheme of things. I had FAR worse in December 2022 and February 2018.